【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of cost, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply in the third quarter of 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of LDPE started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year was recently put into production. The plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable. After the National Day, the stocking demand decreased periodically, the downstream operating rate began to decline, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises was insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is still no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastics industry. Of course, anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,756 yuan per ton, the highest price was 6,820 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 6,818 yuan per ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.50%. The position volume decreased by 5,317 lots to 581,602 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan per ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan per ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,430 yuan per ton, and HDPE at 6,900 - 8,090 yuan per ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of November 7th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton compared to the previous period, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton compared to the previous period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - **Profit**: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - **Production**: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - PE data shows various trends over time, including production, price, and inventory changes. For example, PE production increased from 610,000 tons last week to 630,000 tons this week, a rise of 2.97%. HDPE production increased from 260,000 tons to 270,000 tons, a 2.62% increase. PE开工率 increased from 78.04% to 80.36%, a 2.97% increase [5]. - Different types of PE (LLDPE, LDPE, HDPE) have different price and production change rates. LLDPE had a 4.65% increase in production, LDPE had a 16.97% increase, and HDPE had a 25.08% increase [2]. PP Fundamental Changes - PP data also shows trends in price, production, and inventory. PP production increased by 12.59% this week compared to last week. PP开工率 increased from 33.2% to 34.0%, a 2.44% increase [5]. - PP has different production methods (MTO, PDH), and their profit margins and price differentials are presented. For example, MTO -875, PDH -489 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PE market experienced a decline in supply from June to July, followed by an increase in August due to reduced maintenance and new capacity releases, with seasonal demand expected to support inventory levels [1][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In June, the total PE supply in China (domestic + imports + recycled) was estimated at 3.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.46% [2]. - Domestic production saw a continued decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.22%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at several key plants [2]. - The supply of LDPE significantly decreased due to maintenance at major producers, while HDPE production increased as some plants shifted production [2]. - Import volumes were expected to decrease by 2.64% in June, with geopolitical factors and domestic demand expectations keeping imports at a low level in July and August [2][6]. Recycled PE Supply - The supply of recycled PE was projected to remain low at 130,000 to 160,000 tons per month during June and July due to low price differentials and seasonal demand [2]. - An increase in recycled PE supply is anticipated in August as seasonal demand begins to rise [2]. Production and Export Data - In May, China's plastic products production was 6.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while cumulative production from January to May was 31.65 million tons, reflecting a growth of 5.4% [6]. - Exports of PE shopping bags in May reached 113,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.12%, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 542,500 tons, up 6.02% year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The second half of the year will require careful management of production and supply dynamics to navigate potential risks, particularly as oil-based PE production profitability has turned negative for some varieties [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the plastics industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The plastics market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future due to factors such as increased supply from restarted and newly - commissioned plants, low downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and falling energy prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Recommend to close long positions. The restart of maintenance devices has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE has decreased to 38.69%, with a decline in agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The US tariff increase and restricted ethane imports, along with the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and falling oil prices, contribute to the expected low - level oscillation of plastics [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated with reducing positions, closing at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume decreased by 12,263 lots to 461,763 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7260 - 7590 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9580 - 9830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The restart of maintenance devices in Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of June 20, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 38.69%. Agricultural film entered the off - season, with a decline in orders and a slight increase in raw material inventory. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased to 76.5 tons on Wednesday, 2.5 tons higher than the same period last year. It is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil 08 contract fell to $68/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $860/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $850/ton [4]