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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250509
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:59
2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:美英贸易达成一致 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜:现货偏强,支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝:区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝:大幅反弹 | 6 | | 锌:承压运行 | 8 | | 铅:短期震荡 | 9 | | 锡:窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | ...
早餐 | 2025年5月9日
news flash· 2025-05-08 23:28
贸易协议突破、特朗普喊"买",美股两连涨,美铝涨超5%;比特币涨破10万大关;美债跳水;美 油反弹超3%,期金一度跌超2%。 英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致,细节待敲定;特朗普称对英协议并非模板,10%或是最低, 他国关税可能更高。 欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉讼,并准备对950亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措施,拿汽 车、飞机和威士忌"开刀"。 特朗普喊"买股票",再批鲍威尔动作慢,称他什么都不懂,几乎没有通胀。 面对关税冲击,英国央行如期降息25基点,但决策出现三方分歧。 挑战沙特领导的OPEC+:哈萨克斯坦称未计划5月削减产油量。 印巴冲突升级,多地发生爆炸,巴基斯坦股市重挫7%,印度卢比兑美元创逾三年最大跌幅。 谷歌回应苹果设备上搜索流量下降:搜索查询总量方面仍看到持续增长;大摩称AI对搜索威胁被 夸大,抄底谷歌最佳时机已到。 OpenAI领导层重大变化,任命新应用CEO,Altman让出部分职权;OpenAI野心爆棚,启动全球 版"星际之门",首批十国。 提醒:周五将公布中国4月进出口数据。 ...
专家访谈汇总:SpaceX挑战者股价一年翻6倍
Group 1: Communication Industry Overview - The AI-driven computing network construction, along with 5G/6G and computing infrastructure going global, is expected to provide growth opportunities for equipment manufacturers, with a rapid recovery in performance anticipated [3] - The global aviation communication market is projected to reach $28 billion in 2024 and exceed $45 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% [4] - Investment in technology-leading companies, particularly in the 5G ATG and satellite communication sectors, such as Huawei, ZTE, and Galaxy Aerospace, is expected to yield significant returns [4] - Equipment manufacturers with strong technical capabilities and domestic advantages, like CETC Aviation Electronics, and leaders in operational services, such as China Civil Aviation Communication Network Company, will benefit from market demand growth [4] - By 2028, the commercialization of satellite and 5G hybrid networking is expected to greatly enhance the speed and stability of aviation communication, driving market development [4] Group 2: Rocket Lab and SpaceX Comparison - Rocket Lab has gained significant attention in the investment community, with its stock price soaring up to 7 times in six months, but faced a decline after being targeted by short-sellers in February 2025 [3] - Rocket Lab focuses on the small and medium rocket market, catering to the needs of large-scale satellite constellations like Starlink, in contrast to SpaceX [3] - The company is gradually vertically integrating its business model from rocket launches to satellite platform applications, aiming to become an end-to-end space service provider like SpaceX [5] - Despite Rocket Lab's strong performance in the small rocket sector, delays in research and launch site construction may postpone the "Neutron" launch, putting pressure on capital markets [5] - SpaceX relies on its Starlink and rocket launch services, with Starlink expected to be a key growth driver, particularly in the development of supersonic aircraft that may replace private jets [5] - Relativity Space, utilizing 3D printing technology to simplify rocket manufacturing processes and compress supply chains, could emerge as a significant competitor in the future [5] Group 3: Tesla's Vision-Based Approach - Elon Musk emphasizes that Tesla can simulate human visual processing capabilities through extensive real-world data training, deeming LiDAR as an "expensive crutch" that is unnecessary [4] - Tesla's technology approach provides a clear advantage in hardware costs, particularly in reducing onboard hardware expenses, enhancing its competitive pricing in the global market [4] - LiDAR can detect potential obstacles without relying on object recognition, offering greater visibility and safety in low-light or complex scenarios compared to pure vision solutions [4] - Companies like Ideal Auto and Huawei argue that LiDAR is better suited for complex road conditions in regions like China, especially under low visibility conditions, providing more reliable automatic emergency braking (AEB) functionality [4] - Tesla bets on an "algorithm-driven" model, addressing all perception and decision-making issues in autonomous driving through AI and data training, focusing on lowering hardware costs and simplifying system structures [4] - Domestic automakers, such as Ideal and Huawei, prefer a "hardware-driven" model, opting for a multi-sensor fusion approach that includes LiDAR, cameras, and millimeter-wave radar to ensure safety redundancy in various complex and extreme scenarios [4] Group 4: Apple's AI Search Initiative - Apple plans to introduce AI-driven search capabilities for its Safari browser, which could pose a serious challenge to Google's dominance, particularly regarding Google's reliance on search ad revenue from iPhone users [7] - Apple executives have hinted at reassessing their partnership with Google, especially concerning the default search engine arrangement, in light of ongoing antitrust litigation [7] - Despite Google's claims of increasing search volume, analysts suggest that losing exclusive access to Apple devices could significantly impact Google's revenue, as advertisers may shift to alternative search engines [7] - In 2023, Google launched an "AI mode" on its search page and expanded its "AI overview" feature to boost ad sales and maintain its leadership in the search engine market [7] - Research indicates that traffic for generative search engines like ChatGPT has surged, with weekly search volumes exceeding 1 billion in April, highlighting their market potential [7] - Google pays approximately $20 billion annually to Apple to be the default search engine on Safari, accounting for 36% of its search ad revenue generated through Safari [7] - The U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust case against Google may accelerate competition and transformation in the market [7]
Alphabet(GOOGLUS):AI搜索vs传统搜索,谷歌靠AIoverviews稳短期,长期拓展搜索新模式
wo[Table_Title] Research Report 8 May 2025 电子 Technology Alphabet (GOOGL US): AI 搜索 vs 传统搜索,谷歌靠 AI Overviews 稳短期, 长期拓展搜索新模式 Google Uses AI Overviews to Stabilize, Must Accelerate "Gemini + Search" [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件: 2025 年 5 月 7 日,苹果公司服务高级副总裁 Eddy Cue 在美国司法部对谷歌的反垄断诉讼中作证时表示,苹果正在探 索将 AI 驱动的搜索引擎(如 Perplexity、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT)集成到 Safari 浏览器中,作为对谷 ...
盾博dbg markets:美联储挽救了美股,却给了特朗普重重一击
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 06:23
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change since December [1] - Fed Chairman Powell's strong statements and the warning of "dual risks of inflation and unemployment" in the meeting's statement sent a significant signal to the market [1][3] - Powell emphasized that the Fed has never altered its decision-making logic due to political pressure and will not take preemptive actions against hypothetical risks related to tariffs [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market initially dropped due to the Fed's statement indicating inflation remains slightly above target, but later reversed to close up 0.43% as Powell highlighted the robustness of the U.S. economy [4] - Significant divergence was observed in tech stocks, with Nvidia rising over 3% while Google fell 7% and Apple dropped 1%, reflecting concerns over intensified competition among tech giants [4] - Chinese concept stocks faced a sell-off, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index plunging 2.34%, led by Baidu's nearly 5% decline, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic regulatory pressures [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs reported that the current threshold for rate cuts is higher than during the 2019 trade war, predicting a potential start of the rate cut cycle in July, with a total reduction of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [5] - The Fed's statement included the phrase "economic outlook uncertainty has further increased," reflecting a cautious tone that contrasts with the optimistic expectations from the White House [5]
苹果计划在浏览器上提供AI搜索,谷歌市值蒸发近1500亿美元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 03:46
埃迪·库表示,苹果已在测试Safari 18浏览器的新功能,包括智能搜索功能,该功能利用苹果的端侧AI技术,能识别并提取网页内容。 手机厂商计划使用AI搜索,大模型厂商也对搜索市场虎视眈眈,OpenAI有意收购谷歌Chrome浏览器。 AI搜索正在严重冲击传统搜索引擎行业。 当地时间5月7日消息,苹果(AAPL.O)公司高级副总裁埃迪·库(Eddy Cue)在美国司法部对谷歌的反垄断诉讼作证时表示,苹果有计划在Safari浏览器中 引入AI功能选项,包括OpenAI、Perplexity、Anthropic等。当日,谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.O)股价跌超7%,市值蒸发近1500亿美元。 庭审证词显示,谷歌每年向苹果支付数十亿美元的费用,2022年更是支付约200亿美元,以成为苹果iPhone的默认搜索引擎。这对于苹果而言是笔较为丰厚 的收入。不过,埃迪·库表示,4月Safari浏览器的搜索量出现了首次下降,一大原因是越来越多人开始使用AI技术。 埃迪·库表示,他担心苹果会失去两家公司合作协议中所约定的收益分成,并为此事夜不能寐。他认为谷歌应当继续作为Safari浏览器的默认搜索选项,但苹 果有计 ...
如果特朗普政府让中概股在美国退市
日经中文网· 2025-05-08 03:20
有猜测认为,如果特朗普政府在对华谈判中陷入僵局,会将在美国上市的近300家中国企业摘牌 退市。如果在特朗普第一任期时部分实施的"市场的武器化"进一步升级,将会发生什么呢? 在美国和中国互相征收高关税、彼此敌视的情况下,波及美国金融市场的警戒感正在提高。有猜测 认为,如果特朗普政府在对华谈判中陷入僵局,会将在美国上市的近300家中国企业摘牌退市。如 果在特朗普第一任期时部分实施的"市场的武器化"进一步升级,将会发生什么呢? "所有选项都摆在桌面上" 导火索是美国财政部部长贝森特的发言。"所有选项都摆在桌面上",在4月9日接受美国福克斯 采访时,当被问及是否会将中国股票排除在美国市场之外时,如此回答。 贝森特表示,进一步措施将"取决于特朗普总统的决定",补充说特朗普与中国国家主席的"个 人关系非常好",暗示立即实现的可能性很低。 尽管如此,市场仍然焦虑不安。高盛和摩根士丹利等大型金融机构向客户发送了分析中国企 业被迫从美国退市的风险的报告。 这一说法迅速变得有可能的原因是有相关文件作为基础。这就是白宫于2月21日公布的《美国 优先投资政策》。在这份提出兼顾促进美国投资和经济安全保障的备忘录中,对中国的警惕 之情溢 ...
5月全球十大富豪
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 10:02
Group 1 - Seven of the world's top ten billionaires saw their wealth increase in April, with Elon Musk experiencing the largest gain of $46 billion, bringing his total wealth to $386.5 billion [1][4][33] - The Nasdaq index rose by 0.7% over the past month, while the S&P 500 index fell by 1.1%, indicating a mixed performance in the stock market amid economic uncertainties [2][4] - Amancio Ortega, founder of Inditex, was the second-largest gainer among the top ten billionaires, with an increase of nearly $9 billion, bringing his wealth to $123.3 billion, aided by a 2% rise in Inditex's stock price and a 5% appreciation of the euro against the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - Bernard Arnault, head of LVMH, did not benefit from the strong euro, as the company's Q1 revenue fell short of analyst expectations, with a 3% decline in U.S. sales and an 11% drop in Asian sales (excluding Japan), leading to a 15% drop in LVMH's stock price and a loss of nearly $15 billion in Arnault's wealth [3][4] - Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg also experienced wealth declines, with Bezos losing $5.3 billion and Zuckerberg losing $9.3 billion [3][4] - The total wealth of the top ten billionaires at the beginning of the month was $1.77 trillion, an increase of $40 billion since April 1 [4]
哪吒汽车App被曝断网!官网已无法访问;马斯克更改网名;小米汽车定购页智驾更名辅助驾驶丨邦早报
创业邦· 2025-05-05 01:12
【马斯克更改网名】 Grok上线语音模式,为了配合Grok更新,马斯克也更改X昵称为"groklon rust",头像也进行了修改。(新浪财 经) 【小米汽车定购页智驾更名辅助驾驶】 小米汽车近日调整了SU7新车定购页面中的措辞,将"智驾"更名为"辅助驾驶"。(搜狐) | SU7 | | | ¥ 215,900起 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.28s | 百公里加速 | 700km 频航里程(CLTC) | Xiaomi Pilot Pro 小米辅助驾驶Pro | | 220kW单电机后驱 | . | | | | 前双叉臂&后五连杆独立 裂 | . | | | | . | 小米澎湃者能座舱,骁龙(295智能座舱芯片 | | | | 高品质 10扬声器 | . | | | | SU7 Pro | | | ¥ 245,900起 | | 5.7s | | 830km | Xiaomi HAD | | 百公里加速 | | 纯航里程(CLTC) | 小米瑞到微和智能 | | SU7 Max | | | ¥ 299,900起 | | 百公里加速 | 2.78s | 800km 纯航里程( ...
速递|搜索引擎迎来iPhone时刻?OpenAI瞄准Chrome,一场行业洗牌正在发生
Z Finance· 2025-04-24 03:42
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice is pushing for Google to sell its Chrome browser as part of efforts to address its illegal search monopoly, with OpenAI expressing interest in acquiring Chrome if it becomes available [2][3]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Government Actions - OpenAI's executive testified that if the court forces Google to sell Chrome, the company would actively bid for it [2]. - The DOJ argues that Google's control over Chrome hinders the development of companies like OpenAI, which rely on search capabilities [3]. - The DOJ is advocating for Google to share its search data with competitors to promote fair competition, a proposal supported by Judge Amit Mehta [6]. Group 2: OpenAI's Business Strategies - OpenAI attempted to access Google's search data to aid in the development of its SearchGPT product but was denied by Google in July 2024 [4]. - OpenAI's representative stated that opening Google's search data would allow for faster and better product development, enhancing the quality of real-time information [6]. - OpenAI has considered developing its own web browser and has hired key personnel involved in Chrome's development [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Partnerships - OpenAI's ChatGPT reportedly holds an 85% market share in the U.S. AI market, as indicated in strategic documents [7]. - OpenAI has formed a significant partnership with Apple, integrating ChatGPT into Apple's AI features, which is expected to increase exposure and sales of ChatGPT subscriptions [7].