Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a slight increase of 0.13% on September 11, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] - The trading volume and turnover for key coke stocks were reported, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. closing at 3.50 and a trading volume of 174,000 shares [1] Group 2 - The net capital flow in the coke sector showed a net outflow of 30.537 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 27.677 million yuan [1] - Individual stock capital flows indicated that Baotailong had a net inflow of 4.3111 million yuan from main funds, while An Tai Group experienced a significant net outflow of 14.4761 million yuan [2] - The overall sentiment in the coke sector appears mixed, with some stocks like Yunwei Co., Ltd. seeing retail inflows despite main fund outflows [2]

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明, 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可你的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供�考，报告中的信息或所靠达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月11日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coke prices, but still managed to maintain profitability through cost control measures [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 20.549 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [1]. - Net profit for the same period was 87 million RMB, down 34% year-on-year, impacted by lower coke prices [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points, attributed to effective cost-saving measures and a reduction in depreciation expenses [2]. Coke Business - Revenue from coke and coking operations was 6.36 billion RMB, a decrease of 35.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of coke fell to approximately 1,400 RMB per ton (excluding tax), a decline of about 30% year-on-year, but rebounded to around 1,500 RMB per ton by the end of July 2025 [1]. - The volume of coke produced increased by 330,000 tons year-on-year, totaling 10.88 million tons [1]. Chemical Business - Revenue from the chemical business was 9.1 billion RMB, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to lower average prices for key products [2]. - The gross profit margin for the chemical segment was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with a tax-prepared profit of 190 million RMB, down 44.9% year-on-year [2]. Hydrogen Energy Business - Hydrogen sales reached 1,114 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with hydrogen revenue of 56 million RMB, up 47% [2]. Operational Management and Trade - Revenue from operational management was 1.275 billion RMB, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, with a tax-prepared profit of 34 million RMB, down 41.2% [3]. - Trade business revenue increased by 53% to 3.73 billion RMB, although it incurred a tax-prepared loss of 184 million RMB, which widened by 8.2% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 170 million, 480 million, and 1.06 billion RMB respectively, reflecting the impact of declining coke prices [1][3]. - The target price remains at 4.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current stock price [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector experienced a decline of 0.74% on September 10, with Baotailong leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of coking coal stocks showed mixed results, with Antai Group rising by 1.71% to 2.38, while other companies like Meijin Energy and Yunnan Coal Energy saw declines of 1.04% and 1.02% respectively [1] - The total trading volume for coking coal stocks was significant, with Meijin Energy recording a transaction amount of 2.22 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The coking coal sector saw a net outflow of 53.64 million yuan from main funds and 26.69 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 80.33 million yuan [1] - Individual stock capital flows indicated that Baotailong experienced the largest net outflow of 23.01 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors showed a net inflow of 24.80 million yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hejia Holdings (00704), has received a notice from the Stock Exchange indicating that it has failed to maintain sufficient operational levels as required by Listing Rule 13.24, leading to the suspension of its shares trading [1][2] Group 1: Operational Status - The company's core operation, coking production, has been suspended since October 2021, and it has repeatedly failed to implement its recovery plans for this business [1] - Over the past two years, the company has only engaged in coking trading, generating minimal revenue [1] - The company's plans to restore coking production are preliminary and uncertain [1] Group 2: Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a net current liability of HKD 444.5 million and maintained only HKD 1.7 million in cash [2] - The total assets reported by the company amount to HKD 1.8109 billion, which includes idle coking ovens valued at HKD 1.6654 billion [2] - There is no clear path for the company to generate income from these assets or to restore coking production [2] - On August 2, 2024, a creditor submitted a claim against the company for overdue debts and interest totaling HKD 280.9 million [2] - The company's auditors have expressed an inability to provide an opinion on the company's ability to continue as a going concern since the 2020 fiscal year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hejia Holdings (00704), has received a notification from the Stock Exchange indicating that it has failed to maintain sufficient operational levels as required by Listing Rule 13.24, leading to the suspension of its shares trading [1][2] Group 1: Operational Status - The company's core operation, coke production, has been suspended since October 2021, and it has repeatedly failed to implement its recovery plans for this business [1] - Over the past two years, the company has only engaged in coke trading, generating minimal revenue [1] - The company's plans to restore coke production are preliminary and uncertain [1] Group 2: Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a net current liability of HKD 444.5 million and maintained a cash balance of only HKD 1.7 million [2] - The total assets reported by the company amount to HKD 1.8109 billion, which includes idle coke ovens valued at HKD 1.6654 billion [2] - There is no clear path for the company to generate income from these assets or to resume coke production [2] Group 3: Debt and Audit Concerns - On August 2, 2024, a creditor submitted a claim against the company for overdue debts and interest totaling HKD 280.9 million [2] - Since the fiscal year 2020, the company's auditors have expressed an inability to provide an opinion on the company's ability to continue as a going concern [2] Group 4: Next Steps - The company is currently reviewing the notification from the Stock Exchange and plans to hold a board meeting to discuss whether to request a review of the decision by the Listing Committee [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coke sector experienced a 1.9% increase on September 5, with Meijin Energy leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.78, with a rise of 2.36% and a trading volume of 650,600 shares, totaling a transaction value of 309 million [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.50, up 2.04%, with a trading volume of 263,500 shares and a transaction value of 90.79 million [1] - Baotailong (601011) closed at 2.85, increasing by 1.79%, with a trading volume of 402,600 shares and a transaction value of 113 million [1] - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 3.87, up 1.57%, with a trading volume of 154,900 shares and a transaction value of 59.33 million [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 3.94, increasing by 1.55%, with a trading volume of 167,400 shares and a transaction value of 65.21 million [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.54, up 1.43%, with a trading volume of 188,700 shares and a transaction value of 65.88 million [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.22, increasing by 1.37%, with a trading volume of 223,000 shares and a transaction value of 48.85 million [1] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The coke sector saw a net outflow of 3.42 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 4.14 million [1] - The individual stock fund flow showed varied results, with Shanxi Coking Coal experiencing a net inflow of 5.44 million from main funds but a net outflow of 1.14 million from retail funds [2] - Yunmei Energy had a net inflow of 5.05 million from main funds but a net outflow of 2.26 million from retail funds [2] - Meijin Energy faced a net outflow of 6.82 million from main funds while attracting a net inflow of 5.58 million from retail funds [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].