Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, gaining 83 points to close at 26,011 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.13%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 117.2 billion [1] - Major paper companies announced price increases by the end of 2025, with cultural paper prices rising by HKD 200 per ton. Nine Dragons Paper (02689) saw a rise of 4.76%, and Lee & Man Paper (02314) increased by 5.98% [1] - Pop Mart (09992) surged by 8.7% as the market focused on the Labubu film adaptation, with the fourth quarter sales season approaching [1] Group 2 - Cambridge Technology (603083) (06166) rose by 5% following reports of Google placing additional orders for optical modules to expand its TPU cluster [2] - Harbin Electric (01133) increased by over 3% due to significant electricity demand from AIDC construction, leading to notable growth in the gas turbine industry [3] - Guanghetong (300638) (00638) surged by over 8% as Huawei launched the companion robot "Smart Hanhai," and the company formed a strategic partnership with Luobo Intelligent [4] Group 3 - Laika Pharmaceuticals-B (02105) saw a rise of over 15%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% this month, following the recent acquisition of a BD order for LAE002 [5] - Jiantao Laminates (01888) rose by over 2% during trading as copper-clad board manufacturers announced price increases, driven by demand from AI infrastructure [6] - Connet Optical (02276) increased by over 4% with the upcoming release of Quark AI glasses, and institutions are optimistic about the company's XR business progress [7] Group 4 - Alibaba Health (00241) fell by 3.93%, despite a 64.7% year-on-year increase in interim net profit to CNY 1.266 billion [8] - Chow Tai Fook (01929) dropped by over 3%, with net profit for the first half of the fiscal year remaining roughly flat year-on-year, and Daiwa expects conservative earnings guidance [9]

消息面上，华源证券此前研报指出，优然牧业是全球最大的原奶供应商，业务完整地覆盖乳业上游育 种、草业、饲料、奶牛养殖全产业链，并且各业务均做到行业领先。该行认为，在经历漫长的奶价下行 后，随着供需两端协同改善，原奶价格26H1有望逐步企稳回升。该行预计在奶价上行趋势下，原料奶 销售业务收入有望大幅增厚。此外，肉牛价格上行趋势或将持续，公司利润端有望获益。 中信证券认为，2024年以来能繁母牛或去化超10%，国内牛只供应短缺是本轮牛价上涨的主要推动，上 一轮肉牛周期存栏下降11%最终推动育肥牛价格累计上涨超过60%，本轮周期活牛价格提升仍不到 20%，考虑到2026年国内肉牛供给存在下降压力，该行认为肉牛价格仍有上涨空间。11月25日商务部继 续延期进口牛肉进行保障措施立案调查，牛肉进口虽有不确定性但不影响国内周期反转逻辑。综合来 看，继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振，龙头牧业企业利润改善可期。 智通财经APP获悉，优然牧业(09858)涨超9%，截至发稿，涨9.04%，报3.98港元，成交额1.06亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is shifting towards a new growth paradigm, focusing on productivity enhancement, moderate inflation, and currency appreciation, which will lead to a systematic revaluation of equity markets [8][9] - The report indicates that the profitability of companies is expected to improve due to policies aimed at enhancing nominal GDP, which will directly translate into increased revenues and profits for listed companies [8][9] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of various asset classes is changing, with equities showing significant potential for growth compared to bonds and real estate, which are under pressure [9] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, noting that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively, with most sectors under pressure [28][30] - The report mentions that the semiconductor sector saw a significant upward revision in earnings expectations, indicating a positive outlook despite recent market volatility [30] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market faced significant pressure, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 5.1%, reflecting a broader trend of market pullbacks across various styles and sectors [28][30] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the lithium battery industry is progressing steadily towards solid-state battery commercialization, despite ongoing internal competition [3] - The report notes that the wind power gearbox manufacturer, Delijia, is benefiting from industry prosperity and is experiencing high growth in performance [3] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is undergoing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, with a positive outlook for the broader livestock cycle [3] Group 4 - The report highlights that the AI-driven growth in companies like Kuaishou and Baidu is significant, with Kuaishou's revenue exceeding 300 million RMB in a single quarter, and Baidu's new AI business revenue growing over 50% year-on-year [3] - The report discusses the recovery of recruitment demand in BOSS Zhipin, with stable growth in profit margins, indicating a healthy labor market [3] - The report mentions that the financial engineering sector is seeing substantial inflows into U.S. stock ETFs, with net inflows exceeding 100 billion USD, reflecting strong investor interest [3] Group 5 - The report indicates that the REITs market is experiencing a general decline, with the index down 1.0% for the week, although it remains relatively stable compared to equity assets [17] - The report notes that the infrastructure REITs are gaining traction, with significant support from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption through REITs [19] - The report highlights that the turnover rate for REITs has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in trading activity within this sector [17] Group 6 - The report discusses the performance of the convertible bond market, which has shown resilience amid stock market declines, with the index only down 1% compared to larger drops in equities [20] - The report highlights that certain convertible bonds are exhibiting strong defensive characteristics, particularly those with underlying stocks that are experiencing downward pressure [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market, which could provide opportunities for investors [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual reduction in production capacity in the pig farming sector, with the number of breeding sows in China dropping below 40 million as of October, reflecting a decrease of over 350,000 from September [2][35]. - The report suggests that the recent losses in pig farming, combined with capacity control policies, are likely to enhance expectations for production capacity reduction, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][35]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as TianKang Biological, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture [2][35]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially declined but showed slight recovery later in the week, with an average price of 11.62 CNY/kg as of November 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg [11]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 128.81 kg, up by 0.33 kg week-on-week, driven by improved weight gain due to lower temperatures [24][35]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing losses, but the expected reduction in production capacity may lead to higher long-term price stability for quality pig farming companies [35]. Cattle Farming - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly decreased, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.58 CNY/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week, while calf prices increased to 32 CNY/kg, up 0.63% week-on-week [38]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [38]. Dairy Farming - The price of raw milk is currently at a low point, recorded at 3.03 CNY/kg, which is a 31% decrease from the peak [39]. - The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to continue driving production capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices anticipated as supply contracts [39]. Poultry Farming - The report indicates a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chickens, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.15 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.03 CNY/kg week-on-week [46]. - The price of chicken eggs averaged 6.25 CNY/kg, down 0.24 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery due to supply constraints from ongoing avian influenza outbreaks [46][49]. Agricultural Products - The report notes a correction in soybean meal prices following the USDA report, with spot prices at 3070 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring actual soybean purchases and planting weather in South America for future price movements [62].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection Industry - The energy transition is ongoing, with clean energy and environmental protection exhibiting both growth and utility attributes [7][8] - The unified electricity market is accelerating, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy [7] - The coal power sector is transitioning to a regulatory power source, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices in 2026 [8] - Green electricity pricing uncertainties are diminishing, indicating a potential bottoming out for the green electricity sector [8] - Hydropower is experiencing improved cash flow and performance, supported by low costs and a balanced supply-demand trend [9] - Nuclear power is facing market price pressures but is expected to rebound, with new nuclear projects gaining momentum [10] - The natural gas market remains relatively loose, with domestic supply increasing and global prices potentially declining [10] - Green methanol is emerging as a significant growth area due to policies promoting renewable energy consumption [11] - The environmental protection sector is entering a mature phase, with improved cash flow and investment opportunities in public utility-like projects [11][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with beef and milk prices projected to rise [13][16] - The domestic and international markets are likely to see synchronized price increases for beef and milk due to supply adjustments [13] - The pig and poultry farming sectors are shifting focus from cyclical trends to cash flow generation, with leading companies expected to benefit [14] - The pet industry is identified as a high-quality growth sector, with domestic brands gaining traction [15][18] - Agricultural commodity prices are stabilizing, with corn and soybean markets showing signs of support [16][17] Group 3: Machinery Industry - The machinery industry is poised for growth driven by AI infrastructure and humanoid robots, with a focus on engineering machinery and market share-boosting leaders [19][20] - Emerging markets and export growth are key drivers, particularly in AI infrastructure and robotics [19] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with significant import substitution potential, such as scientific instruments and semiconductor components [20] - The nuclear power sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a positive outlook on nuclear energy development [22] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is recovering, with a notable increase in consumer demand and improvements in the supply chain [26][27] - The alcoholic beverage segment is in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for quality companies to gain market share [26] - Dairy and beverage sectors are expected to see stable demand recovery, with leading companies positioned for growth [26][27] - The snack food market is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in niche segments like konjac snacks [26]

牧业大周期：行业大反转预计在即。1）牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转：国内 肉牛产能去化级别或及 2019 年猪周期，2025 年已迎来价格拐点，后续 有望持续上涨至 2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近 4 年，持续亏损 带来产能出清压力，同时肉奶比价已至历史高位，后续有望推动奶牛淘 汰加快，实现"肉奶共振"。2）国内与国外两个市场协同涨价：海外牛 肉价格在主产区减产推动下，已进入上行周期，叠加进口调控，未来国 内进口牛肉预计量减价增。原奶进口方面，全球奶粉持续去库，景气重 回上行通道，目前进口大包粉已失去性价比，后续在国内产能收缩和进 口减量共同推动下，国内原奶供需格局预计改善，价格有望迎来修复。 猪禽养殖链：弱化周期，强化龙头。未来投资将从注重周期节奏转向公司管 理内核，从重视资本开支转向现金流创造。1）生猪：官方产能调控将加速 头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩 的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。2）禽养殖：供给 波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势 有望实现更高现金流分红回报。3）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分 工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef from 2025 to 2027, supported by both domestic and international market dynamics [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The swine industry is shifting focus from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading firms expected to benefit from improved cash flow due to capacity adjustments [2][9] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are anticipated to be limited, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] - The feed industry is expected to see increased industrialization and specialization, with leading feed companies leveraging technology and service advantages to enhance their competitive edge [2][9] Group 3: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging [2][9] - The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential similar to the rise of domestic brands in Japan [2][9] - Key recommendations include domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned well in the market [2][9] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities Overview - Agricultural commodities are currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term [3][9] - Corn supply is expected to increase marginally in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains strong due to solid bottom support [3][9] - Soybean imports are anticipated to rise, driven by cost recovery, while oilseed supply is expected to increase moderately, supported by policy measures [3][9]