Core Viewpoint - The Guotai Junan Zimeng team has achieved significant recognition in the food and beverage research sector, winning the title of "Best Analyst in the Food and Beverage Industry" at the 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Awards, reflecting their deep understanding of consumer trends and a mature research framework [1][2]. Group 1: Team Performance - The Guotai Junan Zimeng team moved from second place in the 2024 awards to first place in 2025, indicating a strong competitive potential and improvement in research capabilities [2]. - The competition landscape changed significantly, with the GF Securities team ranking second and Huachuang Securities team dropping to fourth place [2]. Group 2: Award Details - The Guotai Junan team members include Zimeng, Yan Huijing, Xu Yang, Yao Shijia, Li Yao, Cheng Biheng, Zhang Yuxuan, Chen Liyu, Li Meiyi, Pang Yuze, Miao Xin, Zhang Jiaying, Yang Liu, Yan Qinghui, and Li Yibing [1]. - The awards highlighted the top teams in the food and beverage sector, with Guotai Junan taking first place, GF Securities second, and Changjiang Securities third [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The Zimeng team believes that the liquor industry is currently undergoing a rapid clearing adjustment phase, with inventory levels decreasing and stock prices potentially rising amidst market pessimism [9]. - The beer industry is expected to clear earlier than the liquor sector, with increasing differentiation within the industry, suggesting investors should focus on regionally competitive beer leaders [9].

原奶价格企稳筑底，26 年上行确定性较强。受益于季节性供需错配与新版灭菌乳国标落地，9 月奶价有 所反弹回升，行业供需格局达到初步平衡。双节后奶价表现坚挺，11 月延续筑底趋势，整体供需情况 好于预期。目前我国原奶自给率逾70%，24 年进口干乳制品折合生鲜乳约为1500 万吨，占原奶产量比 例达37%；伊利、蒙牛等企业持续发力初深加工产能建设，未来随着国产替代比例提升，原奶需求有望 进一步提振。此外，供给端有望受益于前期集中扩产影响消退、泌乳牛补栏减少与部分社会存栏退出， 26 年奶价上行确定性较强。 能繁母牛持续去化，景气周期有望延续。供给端能繁母牛存栏持续去化，25Q3 全国牛存栏同比-2.4%至 9932 万头，肉牛整体繁育周期较长，我们认为供给端缺口持续下景气周期有望延续至27 年。25 年8 月 起美国对巴西牛肉加征40%关税，大量在途货物流入中国等市场，受国际供需格局变化与行业囤货等影 响，25H2 我国进口牛肉量同比提升；随着11 月美国关税政策松绑，牛肉进口端影响有望减弱。我国进 口牛肉措施调查将于1 月结束，我们认为未来如推出进口端限制政策或进一步提振国内牛肉需求。 本报告导读： 原奶价格 ...

报告导读： 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强，肉牛景气周期有望延续，肉奶周 期共振下牧业企业盈利弹性可期。 投资建议： 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强，有望受益于供给端集中扩产影响消退与补栏减少，以及需求端初深加工产能释放；能繁母牛持续去 化，肉牛景气周期有望延续至 27 年。肉奶周期共振下，牧业企业盈利弹性较强。 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强 。 受益于季节性供需错配与新版灭菌乳国标落地， 9 月奶价有所反弹回升，行业供需格局达到初步平衡。双节后 奶价表现坚挺， 11 月延续筑底趋势，整体供需情况好于预期。目前我国原奶自给率逾 70% ， 24 年 进口干乳制品折合生鲜乳约为 1500 万吨，占原奶产 量比例达 37% ；伊利、蒙牛等企业持续发力初深加工产能建设，未来随着国产替代比例提升，原奶需求有望进一步提振。此外， 供给端有望受益于 前期集 中扩产影响消退、泌乳牛补栏减少与部分社会存栏退出， 26 年奶价上行确定性较强。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment indicates that despite a recent pullback in the stock prices of livestock-related companies due to a slowdown in the reduction of dairy cow inventory, the underlying cyclical logic remains intact, presenting a good opportunity for investment amidst the current cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-August, livestock stocks, represented by YouRan Agriculture, have experienced significant pullbacks, raising market concerns [2]. - The recent pullback is attributed to several factors: unexpected dairy cow inventory reduction data leading to a rapid price increase, profit-taking pressures, and seasonal supply and demand fluctuations [2]. - Despite short-term negative data, the long-term logic of the meat and dairy cycle remains unaffected, with dairy cow inventory reduction expected to continue into the off-season [2]. Group 2: Beef Market Insights - The wholesale price of beef in China reached 66.04 yuan/kg as of October 11, remaining near recent highs despite a slight decline from the pre-National Day peak [2]. - The prices of both dressed beef and wholesale beef have hit new highs due to pre-holiday stocking, indicating a clear upward trend in beef prices [2]. - The beef market is characterized by a tightening supply situation, with prices expected to continue rising in the coming years [3]. Group 3: Dairy Market Analysis - Although there has been a temporary slowdown in dairy cow inventory reduction, the overall trend remains unchanged, with raw milk prices stabilizing at 3.04 yuan/kg as of September 30 [4]. - In Shandong, the raw milk purchase price is below the comprehensive cost, indicating ongoing losses and a continued reduction in dairy cow inventory [4]. - The expected rise in beef prices will likely encourage farms to cull dairy cows, accelerating the reduction of dairy cow inventory and hastening the bottoming process of the raw milk cycle [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with a net loss of 980 million yuan compared to a net loss of 210 million yuan in the same period last year. The cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1][3]. Revenue and Sales Performance - In H1 2025, raw milk revenue decreased by 0.8% to 5.07 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 10.3% but average price declining by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg due to weak domestic demand and falling market prices [2][3]. - The company has improved its herd management by eliminating low-yield cows and focusing on enhancing the core herd ratio, resulting in a total herd size of 472,000 heads, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a lactating cow count of 256,000 heads, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 26.4%, while the gross margin for the raw milk business decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 30.2% [3]. - The company experienced a fair value loss of biological assets amounting to 1.82 billion yuan, an increase in loss of 670 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased culling and declining raw milk prices [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the dairy product industry by 2026, expecting a return to supply-demand balance, which could lead to rising raw milk prices and improved profitability for upstream dairy farms [1][3]. - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of -0.17, 0.08, and 0.14 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, and sets a target price of 1.58 HKD based on a 26-year PE of 18x [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The report anticipates a resonance between the meat and dairy cycles, which is expected to reveal profit elasticity for the company [1] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and increased net losses in the first half of 2025, but there are signs of potential recovery in the dairy and beef markets [1][4] Revenue and Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 6.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with a net loss of 980 million RMB compared to a net loss of 210 million RMB in the same period last year [1] - Raw milk revenue decreased by 0.8% year-on-year to 5.07 billion RMB, with sales volume increasing by 10.3% but average price per kilogram dropping by 10.1% to 3.29 RMB/kg [2] - The company has improved its core herd ratio and increased the annual average yield per lactating cow to 13.2 tons per head, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 26.4%, while the cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [3] - The company expects a reduction in biological asset impairment losses in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability [3] Future Outlook and Valuation - The report maintains earnings forecasts, projecting EPS of -0.17, 0.08, and 0.14 RMB for 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] - The target price is set at 1.58 HKD, based on a 18x PE ratio for 2026, indicating potential upside from the current market price [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the beef and dairy industries are entering a phase of supply-demand balance due to reduced supply pressures and improved demand conditions in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Beef Industry Insights - The beef price has begun to reverse from low levels, with a projected increase in 2025 driven by supply reduction and decreased import pressures. Since the beginning of 2025, beef and live cattle prices have risen approximately 10% and 20% respectively from previous lows [1][4]. - The supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease due to ongoing losses in ranching, with a reported 2.1% year-on-year decline in national cattle inventory as of Q2 2025, totaling 99.92 million heads [4]. - The reduction in imported beef, which saw a 9.5% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025, is anticipated to further support domestic beef prices [4]. Dairy Industry Insights - The price of raw milk has continued to decline, but a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, aided by reduced dairy cow restocking and a recovery in demand [2]. - The implementation of a fertility subsidy policy in July 2025 is expected to boost dairy product consumption, alongside the introduction of new national standards for UHT milk, which will limit the use of reconstituted milk [2]. - The dairy industry is projected to see a strong upward trend in prices in 2026 due to the fading effects of previous expansion and a reduction in lactating cow restocking [2]. Profitability and Market Dynamics - The cyclical nature of the meat and dairy industries is expected to enhance the profitability of leading agricultural companies. A hypothetical 10% to 20% increase in milk prices could improve the gross margin of leading dairy companies by 6 to 10 percentage points [5]. - The valuation of breeding cattle and income from culling are expected to increase with a 20% to 40% rise in cattle prices, potentially adding 200 to 400 million yuan to the total income of leading ranching companies [5]. - Companies involved in both beef and dairy sectors, such as Aoyuan Group and China Shengmu, are likely to benefit directly from the recovery in live cattle prices and the reversal of milk prices [5].

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing decline in raw milk prices and anticipates a faster reduction in livestock inventory in 25H2, which is expected to benefit beef and live cattle prices due to supply reduction and diminished import impacts, indicating strong profit elasticity for livestock companies amid the resonance of meat and dairy cycles [1][2]. Summary by Sections Raw Milk Prices and Supply-Demand Balance - Raw milk prices continue to decline, with expectations for supply-demand balance in 25H2. The financial pressure on farms during the silage procurement season in August-September is likely to accelerate the reduction of social inventory. The industry is expected to enter a supply-demand balance channel due to reduced production from heat stress and the effects of previous heifer inventory reductions, alongside a seasonal demand increase [2][3]. Beef and Live Cattle Price Trends - Beef prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 25, following a low point in 2023. The decline in beef prices from 2023 was primarily due to low-priced imported beef squeezing demand and increased domestic production capacity. In 25, the reduction in supply and diminished import impacts are anticipated to lead to a price rebound, with beef and live cattle prices rising approximately 10% and 20% from previous lows, respectively [3][4]. Profit Elasticity in Livestock Companies - The resonance of meat and dairy cycles is expected to enhance profit elasticity for livestock companies. The gross profit margin is projected to improve significantly due to rising milk prices and reduced unit costs. If sales milk prices increase by 10% or 20%, leading dairy companies could see gross margin improvements of over 6 percentage points or 10 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, the fair value of breeding cows is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and lower feeding costs [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that raw milk prices continue to decline, and there is potential for supply-demand balance in H2 2025 due to accelerated herd reduction and improved demand during peak seasons [2][3] - The report suggests that the dairy industry is likely to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced dairy cow replenishment and a recovery in demand, supported by new policies aimed at boosting dairy consumption [2][3] - The beef market is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025, as low beef prices have started to reverse, benefiting from reduced supply and diminished import pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights strong profit elasticity for livestock companies due to the resonance of meat and milk cycles, with potential improvements in gross margins driven by rising milk prices and cost reductions [4] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are expected to increase with rising beef prices, which could enhance total revenue for leading livestock companies [4] - Companies like YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming are recommended for investment, while China Shengmu and Aoyuan Group are noted as companies to watch due to their involvement in the livestock sector [1][4]