Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant decrease in prices and a mixed outlook on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1170 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.80% [1] - The weekly trading range saw prices open at 1224 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1236 CNY/ton and a low of 1156 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6444 million tons as of November 20, 2025, a decrease of 62,900 tons (3.68%) from the previous week [2] - Light soda ash inventory stood at 757,100 tons, down by 43,100 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 19,800 tons to 887,300 tons [2] - Year-on-year, total inventory has slightly decreased by 370 tons (0.23%) compared to 1.6481 million tons last year [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 973,600 long positions and 1,229,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.79 and a net position of -255,800 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment [2] - In the South China region, the average price for light soda ash was 1350 CNY/ton and for heavy soda ash was 1400 CNY/ton, with similar prices reported in Northeast China [2] Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted a dual reduction in supply and demand, with high factory inventories declining and production slightly decreasing due to maintenance [3] - The demand for soda ash is being negatively impacted by falling glass prices, leading to a weak market sentiment [3] - Wukuang Futures highlighted that the soda ash market lacks clear directional guidance, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线止跌 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线有所变化，东北一条产线放水，无点火产线，周产量环比下降。截至20251120， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计 | | --- | --- | | | 296条(20万吨/日），其中在产221条，冷修停产75条，截至2025年11月20日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。 | | | 截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大区深加工样本持有订单均值环比月初均有 | | 需求 | 下滑，订单疲软态势也导致部分加工厂出现阶段性放假现象，目前调研的深加工所持订单天数较少在2-5天居多，另有排期集中在7-15天，亦 | | | 有少数工程订单排期较长，临近年末，欠款类订单深加工签单依旧保持谨慎心态。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251120，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环比+0.09%，同 ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多重利空共振， 玻璃持续探底 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/11/22 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 | 玻璃基本面评估 | 估值 | | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 成本利润 | 产量 | 需求 | 玻璃库存 | 房地产 | | 数据 | 101 | 天然气：-206.84 煤炭：25.79 石油焦：8.52 | 111.02万吨 | 深加工订单：9.9日 | 6330.3万重箱 | ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: Construction site funds availability has slightly increased but remains significantly lower year - on - year. Real estate data recovery is slow. Steel mills' profitability is on the decline, and the steel fundamentals are weak, with a tendency for weak oscillations. Iron ore is under pressure due to expected supply loosening and a decline in daily hot - metal production. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory is accumulating, production is decreasing, and demand is weak. The supply of soda ash is loose, and the weak supply - demand situation is hard to change [68][72]. - **Short - term**: In the macro - policy vacuum period, the sentiment in the market is weak. The steel futures market will be in a weak oscillation, and iron ore will operate at a low level. The glass futures price is on a downward trend, dragging down the soda ash futures price, and both will be under pressure in the short term [69][73]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From November 14th to 21st, 2025, among the main futures contracts, the prices of螺纹钢,热卷, and铁矿石 increased, while those of 焦炭,焦煤, glass, and 纯碱 decreased. The price of 螺纹钢 rose from 3053 to 3057,热卷 from 3256 to 3270, and 铁矿石 from 773 to 786; 焦炭 dropped from 1670 to 1615,焦煤 from 1192 to 1103, glass from 1032 to 987, and 纯碱 from 1226 to 1170 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 螺纹钢, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦炭, 焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱 were 3220, 3270, 807, 1770, 1530, 1120, and 1261 respectively. The corresponding basis (unadjusted) was 163, 0, 22, 156, 427, 133, and 91 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On November 20th, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 31 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 21st, the blast - furnace operating rate was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons, while the weekly rebar production was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons [13]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.42 tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 84,520 tons [18]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the social inventory of rebar was 400.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.73 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 153.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.1 tons [23]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.474 million tons, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.994 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7799 million tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7478 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the daily average port - clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 3.4339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0311 million tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 0.918 million tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, the same as the previous week. The weekly output was 1.110195 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3750 tons. As of November 20th, the capacity utilization rate was 79.03%, and the operating rate was 74.66% [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.303 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons, and the available inventory days were 27.5, the same as the previous week [48]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 17th, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 9.9 days [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the output was 720,900 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons compared with the previous week [56]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.6444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,900 tons [61]. - **Sales Rate**: As of November 21st, the sales rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a week - on - week increase of 7.8 percentage points [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract SA601 slightly increased by 0.09%. The futures price is mainly supported by cost (stable prices of thermal coal and sea salt) and continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts, rather than an improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The main contract SA601 is actively traded, with a single - day trading volume of 23.458 billion yuan and an open interest of over 1 million lots, indicating strong market trading enthusiasm. The far - month contract SA605 is at a discount of about 70 yuan/ton compared to SA601, and the monthly spread structure remains negative, reflecting the continuous market expectation of supply surplus in 2026. As of November 20, the number of registered warehouse receipts for soda ash futures is 0, and the number of valid forecasts is 4,879. The delivery expectation has not been released intensively, and the market is still dominated by speculation and hedging [3]. - The current industry is still under the triple pressure of high inventory, low demand, and weak profits, with limited upward price space. The supply side is slightly favorable, with the operating rate falling from a high level and production decreasing slightly. In terms of inventory, the weekly destocking has accelerated, achieving destocking for three consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. Although the inventory has been falling continuously, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the inventory days remain above 20 days. The destocking pace maintains the characteristics of "high base and slow rhythm". The rigid demand from the glass and new energy sectors supports the stable rigid consumption of heavy soda ash. Downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with most operations being "low inventory and fast turnover", and no concentrated stockpiling has occurred. Although the price of thermal coal on the cost side has increased slightly, the decline in soda ash prices is greater, and the overall profit margin of the industry is still in a contraction range. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair plan after December and the potential pull of macro - policies on the real estate chain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract SA601 closed at 1,170 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% during the week. However, the far - month contracts are continuously at a discount, and the market sentiment is constrained by the loose supply - demand pattern. On the spot side, the price of heavy soda ash shows regional differentiation, is under pressure, and tends to be weak. The inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The industry profit is under pressure, and there has been no fundamental improvement in the overall fundamentals. In the short term, equipment maintenance and inventory decline provide some support, but the expectation of new production capacity release in the long term remains, and combined with the continuous downturn in the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash lacks elasticity, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern [2]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a decrease of 18,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.50%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, compared with 84.80% last week, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous week. Recently, equipment problems in some enterprises have led to a decline in production [2]. Demand - This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous week, with one cold - repair and one hot - repair. The in - production volume of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable from the previous week. Next week, the float glass production will remain stable, and the photovoltaic glass plans to cold - repair 700 tons. The downstream demand is average, the sentiment for replenishing inventory at low prices has increased, the futures price has declined, and the trading volume has increased. Exports remain good, with exports exceeding 210,000 tons in October [2]. Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous week (+0.06%), and the inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. The inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous week. There is a slight differentiation between light and heavy soda ash, with light soda ash being stronger and heavy soda ash being weaker [3]. Profit - In early November, the soda ash industry as a whole was still in a loss - making state, and the profit was under significant pressure. The net profits of many leading enterprises decreased significantly year - on - year, reflecting the severe overall profit environment in the industry. As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly, leading to an upward shift in cost support [3].

游期现01-60到70，成交弱 玻璃产销：沙河76，湖北105，华东105，华南100 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1190.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -60.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1305.0 | 1257.0 | 1232.0 | -73.0 | -25.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1210.0 | 1150.0 | 1140.0 | -70.0 | -10.0 | SA01合约 | 1239.0 | 1182.0 | 1158.0 | -81.0 | -24.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 21.36% | 46.3% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1300 | 17.89% | 11.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 1. 17日纯碱玻璃震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期供给整体持稳,而生产利润再度挤压,市场继续倒逼供 给减量的压力增强。反内卷大逻辑下,供给扰动情绪易发酵。淡季来临, 整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃估值并不高。同时 煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 年碱生仔 00000 250 8000 200 6000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 I ...

| | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/10 2025/11/14 2025/11/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/10 2025/11/14 2025/11/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1113.0 | 1095.0 | 1070.0 | -43.0 | -25.0 | FG05合约 | 1205.0 | 1160.0 | 1165.0 | -40.0 | 5.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1113.0 | 1096.0 | 1053.0 | -60.0 | -43.0 | FG01合约 | 1069.0 | 1032.0 | 1029.0 | -40.0 | -3.0 | | 5mm大板 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 供应高位小幅减量，本周纯碱产量73.93吨，环比下降0.76万吨，跌幅1.01%。其中，轻质碱产量32.84万吨，环比下降0.37万吨。重质碱产量 | | | | 41.09万吨，环比下降0.39万吨。部分企业负荷波动，供应窄幅下移。企业装置开停并存，供应窄幅波动，下周产量或小幅增加。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 短期直接需求企稳，光伏日熔量持稳。下游需求支撑。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，厂家总库存170.73万吨，较上周四下降0.69万吨，跌幅0.40%。其中，轻质纯碱80.02万吨，环比减少1.44万吨；重质纯碱90.71万 | | | | 吨，环比增加0.75万吨。 | | ...