Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of both glass and soda ash may fluctuate. For glass, although there are short - term supports from macro - sentiment and coal price rebound, its upward driving force is insufficient. For soda ash, despite short - term support from continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and coal price rebound, the overall supply is still in surplus and the demand is expected to weaken [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions are relatively flexible with prices weakly operating; in the East China market, enterprises purchase cautiously and some manufacturers' quotes are loose; in the Central China market, overall transactions are weak with a few prices falling; in the South China region, shipments are okay and most are on the sidelines. The market is generally not optimistic about year - end demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs [1] - **Supply**: As of December 18, the daily average output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with a weekly output of 1.0849 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.24%. The industry average operating rate was 73.99%, a 0.14% week - on - week increase; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repair [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 331,000 heavy boxes, a 0.57% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 8514.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a 4.2% week - on - week decrease and a 22.6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the profit of natural - gas - fired production lines was - 181.4 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 15.02 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production lines was - 0.07 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 35.71 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production lines was - 7.63 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14.14 yuan/ton) [2] Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The spot market of soda ash fluctuates, with the trading center moving down. Enterprise devices fluctuate slightly, and the output of individual enterprises increases. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, mostly on the sidelines, maintaining just - in - time procurement at low prices [4] - **Supply**: Last week, the soda ash output was 721,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, a decline of 1.91%. The output of light soda ash was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 390,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, down 1.61% from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. Although the new capacity of Alxa Phase II was put into production recently, the overall industry operating rate has been adjusted down, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic manufacturers was 1.5004 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.07%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 729,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 771,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons [4] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash is relatively stable, while the overall situation of heavy soda ash downstream is weak. In the short term, the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the overall rigid demand fluctuates little. However, there is still an expectation of glass cold repair at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash may weaken [4] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the combined - soda process was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt remained stable, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, weakening the cost support [5]

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/24 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/16 2025/12/22 2025/12/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/16 2025/12/22 2025/12/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 984.0 | 980.0 | 976.0 | -8.0 | -4.0 | FG05合约 | 1038.0 | 1031.0 | 1028.0 | -10.0 | -3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 976.0 | 959.0 | 959.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 946.0 | 931.0 | 938.0 | -8.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish on glass (FG) and soda ash (SA) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, leading to a continuous decline in prices and a compression of industrial profits. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward drive of prices, but the supply elasticity will increase significantly under the influence of profit compression and policies. The fundamentals of glass and soda ash will remain loose, and prices may be more affected by supply changes [3][85][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Glass - In 2025, glass prices were under pressure and continued to decline. The annual average price of 5mm glass in the Shahe area was about 1,100 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. The price fluctuations were mainly divided into three stages: continuous decline from the beginning of the year to the end of June, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline under pressure in the fourth quarter. The futures price showed a contango structure, and the basis and inter - month spreads had obvious characteristics. The glass factory's profit was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [4][7][14] 3.1.2 Soda Ash - In 2025, the supply of soda ash was strong and the demand was weak, and the price center of gravity continued to move down. The annual average price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was about 1,286 yuan, a decrease of 32.2% compared with 2024. The price fluctuations mainly went through four stages: a slight rise before and after the Spring Festival, a sharp decline in the second quarter, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline and a new low in the fourth quarter. The basis and spreads fluctuated slightly, and the annual structure was in backwardation. The alkali factory's profit was under pressure and decreased [24][28][32] 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the glass supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase followed by a decline. The production profit was under pressure, and the industry clearing was slow. In 2026, the glass factory's production profit will continue to be under pressure, and the industry may accelerate the clearing. The daily melting volume and start - up rate are expected to decline, but the reduction may still be insufficient [42][43] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the glass demand was weak, with a slight improvement in stages. Real estate demand continued to decline, while manufacturing demand was resilient. In 2026, the overall demand will remain weakly stable, with real estate demand still under pressure and manufacturing demand maintaining a certain degree of support. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate [53][54][62] 3.3 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the soda ash supply was at a high level, and the new production capacity was put into operation. In 2026, the production capacity expansion will slow down, and the production capacity will start to clear in the medium and long term. The supply elasticity of alkali factories is relatively strong, and the price will continue to fluctuate greatly due to supply disturbances [64] 3.3.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the demand for soda ash was weakly stable, with a downward trend. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively good. In 2026, the demand for soda ash will still be an important driving factor. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken, but the overall demand still has strong resilience [74][75][84] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the downstream demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, resulting in an imbalance in fundamentals and a continuous decline in prices. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward space of glass and soda ash prices, and the industrial profits will continue to be under pressure. The prices may be more affected by supply changes, and the overall fluctuation range is limited [85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, as well as the market conditions of the two industries, including production and sales, upstream inventory, and new product output [2]. 3. Section Summaries Glass - **Price**: The prices of 5mm glass in various regions remained mostly stable from December 12 - 19, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm glass at Shahe Anquan was 984, with no weekly or daily change. FG05 contract price increased by 25 from December 12 - 18 and then decreased by 21 on December 19 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 0.8 weekly and 5.0 daily on December 19, 2025, while the profit of North China natural gas glass decreased by 14.3 weekly and increased by 2.1 daily. The 05FG and 01FG natural gas profits on the market also changed [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 82, Hubei's was 100, East China's was 92, and South China's was 100. Shahe factory's production and sales were weak, and the low - price of Shahe traders was around 959, with general shipments. In Hubei, the transaction in the province weakened [2]. Soda Ash - **Price**: The prices of heavy soda ash in different regions had changes from December 12 - 19, 2025. For example, Shahe heavy soda ash price increased by 30 weekly and decreased by 10 daily on December 19. SA05 contract price increased by 50 weekly and decreased by 17 daily [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 57.7 weekly and decreased by 4.9 daily on December 19, 2025, and the profit of North China combined - soda method increased by 81.0 weekly and decreased by 4.2 daily [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The upstream inventory of soda ash was accumulating, and the second - phase of Yuanxing produced qualified products [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold - repair of some glass production lines from December to the Spring Festival, the influence of policy on supply, the near - month delivery logic and cost - based pricing of soda ash, and the need to digest the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches and the expected oversupply of soda ash [1]. - The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory. It is recommended to observe and wait, with the 01 contract mainly focusing on warehouse receipt games and the 05 contract more on expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, affecting far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy influence on supply cannot be ruled out, and attention should be paid to changes in next year's supply expectations [1]. - The near - month 01 glass contract follows delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games. Soda ash is priced based on cost. With new production capacity to be put into operation and high - medium production levels, its valuation has limited upward potential without a trend of production reduction. The expected cold - repair of glass may lead to a decline in soda ash's rigid demand [1]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to face oversupply due to new production capacity [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: There are still differences in near - term spot prices. Cold - repair expectations and high inventory in the middle reaches require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold - repair and spot price feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory, so it's advisable to observe [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Prices**: The average price of glass in Shahe on December 20, 2025, was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices in most regions remained stable, with only a few showing slight declines [7][8]. - **Glass Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the glass 05 contract decreased by 21 yuan/ton (- 1.98%), the 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.56%), and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton (- 1.26%) [8]. - **Glass Daily Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions having stable or slightly decreased ratios [9]. - **Soda Ash Spot Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained stable on December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Soda Ash Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the soda ash 05 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), the 09 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), and the 01 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.5%) [10][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [11]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, putting pressure on spot prices. New production capacity of soda ash is expected to be put into operation, increasing long - term supply pressure, and the expected cold - repair of glass may affect the rigid demand for soda ash [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether the industrial policy will have further clear instructions. - The sales, production, and spot prices of glass, as well as the spot trading volume of soda ash [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near the delivery date. The increase in near - term cold - repair of glass and high inventory in the middle reaches lead to differences in the spot market. The far - month market has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 1 - 5 spread of glass has narrowed this week, mainly because of the low valuation of the near - month contract, causing short - sellers to shift to the far - month contract [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall structure of soda ash remains in a C - structure, and the long - term situation may worsen with the release of new production capacity [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas - based glass production lines are in the red, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1110 yuan/ton [35]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [37]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in November was close to 19 tons, maintaining high - level expectations [37]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - side and Projection - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [44]. - **Soda Ash Supply**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates around 102,000 tons. The first 1 - million - ton production line of Alxa Phase II (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9, and the 700,000 - ton new production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into operation in mid - to - late December [47]. 3.5.2 Demand - side and Projection - **Glass Demand**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the terminal demand remains weak. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand from January to December is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7% [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The current rigid demand for soda ash remains stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,700 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 48,800 tons. However, due to the expected cold - repair of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is continuously increasing, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair expectations of photovoltaic glass. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November is estimated to decline by 0.05% [60][61]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass manufacturers is 58.558 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 weight - boxes (+ 0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain at a high level [67]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 727,600 tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons), and the heavy - soda ash inventory is 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons). The inventory in delivery warehouses is 450,300 tons (a decrease of 54,300 tons). The combined inventory of factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9496 million tons, with the upstream inventory being depleted and the downstream mainly replenishing inventory at low prices [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass in 2026, it is expected that both supply and demand will decline. The demand decline rate is expected to narrow, and the industry profit pressure caused by the real - estate chain's capital problem remains to be resolved. Attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side, and the cost line supports the price. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted dynamically according to the cost [5][64]. - For soda ash in 2026, it is expected that supply will decrease and demand will increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the digestion of the high - inventory contradiction still faces challenges. The differentiation between light and heavy soda ash may continue, and the price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season [6][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Glass 2026 Annual Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 Review: Industry Clearance Game under Weak Demand - In 2025, weak demand was the fundamental contradiction in the glass industry. The over - supply pattern and high upstream and mid - stream inventory pressures led to the spot price fluctuating around the cost. Throughout the year, the price showed a downward - rebound - downward trend, and the inventory transfer from upstream to mid - stream was an important driver for the price increase [14][15]. 3.1.2 Glass 2026 Outlook - **Demand**: The decline in glass demand in 2026 is expected to narrow. Real - estate demand will continue to decline but at a slower pace. The growth rate of the automobile industry will slow down, and the output of home appliances may decline year - on - year. It is expected that the apparent demand for glass in 2026 will decline by 5% [21][26]. - **Supply**: The glass supply is expected to decline first and then increase in 2026. The overall supply is expected to be around 5515 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 4.5%. The industry may experience further clearance in the short term due to weak demand and high inventory, and the cost may rise in the long term due to energy transformation policies [54][60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, both supply and demand of float glass are expected to decline. More attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side. The absolute price floor is around 950 yuan/ton, fluctuating with the cost. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted according to the cost [64]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2026 Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Price Review: The Decline of the Soda Ash Price Center Gradually Slowed - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash price declined due to over - supply and falling raw material costs. In the second half, the industry moved from over - supply to a wide - balance state, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of the soda ash industry first increased and then decreased [72]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2026 Outlook - **Supply**: The soda ash industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle in 2026, but the production increase rhythm slows down. New production capacity at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 will increase the supply pressure, and the industry may continue to clear capacity. The valuation is expected to be repaired by supply - side adjustment, and the upper limit of the valuation should be concerned about the resumption of marginal production capacity [99][101]. - **Light Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the demand for light soda ash was strong. In 2026, it is expected that the traditional downstream will maintain a growth rate of 4.5 - 5.0%, and the demand from lithium carbonate and exports will continue to increase. The weekly average apparent demand for light soda ash is expected to be around 34 - 34.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7% [106]. - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass both declined. In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installation growth rate is expected to slow down, and the rigid demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to fluctuate between 8.5 - 9.3 tons per day, and the annual production is expected to decline by about 1% to 3228 tons, corresponding to a rigid demand of 581 tons for heavy soda ash [111][113]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's soda ash exports increased significantly, and imports decreased sharply. In 2026, it is expected that the large - scale export and closed import window pattern will continue, and the annual net export volume is expected to be between 240 - 260 tons [117][118]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease and demand to increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the high - inventory problem still needs to be resolved. The price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season. The spot price of soda ash may continue to be in the industry cost range, and attention should be paid to the lower and upper limits of the valuation and the seasonal supply decline during the maintenance season [121].

纯碱学名碳酸钠，是一种基础化工原料，广泛应用于工业制造、食品加工和日常生活三大领域，是被誉为"化 工之母"三酸两碱中的两碱之一。周光耀从20岁参加工作起，便与纯碱结下了不解之缘。 周光耀1954年在大连碱厂参加工作成为一名技术人员，1965年调入化工部第八设计院成为一名纯碱设计工程 师，后任中国成达工程公司副总工程师、首席技术专家，1995年7月当选中国工程院化工、冶金与材料工程学 部院士，成为化工部所属设计院第一位中国工程院院士。期间，他研发多项高效、低碳绿色技术，成功运用 到纯碱工程项目建设中，有力推动了我国纯碱产业的大型化、绿色化和现代化发展。在周光耀院士90岁之 际，特刊发此文，致敬其为我国纯碱事业发展做出的重要贡献。 矢志求学 走上纯碱报国之路 周光耀1935年12月出生于浙江宁波鄞县的一个小镇。家中有兄弟姐妹8个，他排行老四。父亲在镇上开了一家 小杂货店，勉强维持家中基本生活。 1942年初，周光耀在鄞县姜山小学读书。1949年初，周光耀考入宁波一所著名的私立学校效实中学读初中。 在中学，他对化学很感兴趣，每次做化学实验时，都会被玻璃器皿里奇妙变幻的液体和气体所吸引。 1951年7月，周光耀以年级 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据 显示：本周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且 伴随淡季到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰 动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需 采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加 0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位 震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯 碱价格的影响。 策略 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The core contradiction in the glass industry remains weak demand, and significant improvement is unlikely in 2026. If the supply side can significantly contract, the market may reverse. Policy - driven supply contraction is possible, especially in Hubei in the second half of 2026. The key variable in 2026 is still the policy end, and the pattern of rising by expectation and falling by delivery will continue [1][104]. - Soda Ash: High production and high inventory are the core pressures on the soda ash industry. In 2026, there may be nearly 10% incremental production capacity. The industry needs to further reduce production to resolve the dilemma. Key variables in 2026 include export market trends, supply reduction due to low prices, and the resolution of warehouse receipt pressure [2][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Glass and Soda Ash Trend Review - Glass: In 2025, glass was weak. The price of the main contract dropped from 1470 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton, a decline of 35.4%. Factory inventory increased, and order volume declined. The market was affected by concerns about the capital situation of real - estate and glass processing enterprises. After a brief rebound in July, the price continued to fall from October [5]. - Soda Ash: In 2025, the soda ash market faced pressure from expanding production capacity and weak downstream demand. The price decreased significantly, with the average price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe dropping by about 33.3% compared to 2024. The industry's capacity utilization rate declined, and inventory remained high. Although exports increased by 101.6% year - on - year as of November, the overall situation was still challenging [6][7]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Creeping Forward with Policy Support but No Boost - In 2026, the real - estate market is still difficult to improve substantially. The potential large - scale interest rate cuts and quantitative easing in the US may help domestic real - estate debt resolution in the second half of 2026. Domestic policies aim to stabilize the market, and although the decline rate of real - estate indicators has slowed, full recovery still takes time [8][9]. 3.3 Demand under Pressure, Supply Changes More Important in 2026 3.3.1 Demand Still under Pressure - Glass Processing: The production of glass deep - processing products decreased. As of October 2025, the cumulative production of tempered glass decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, hollow glass by 9.2%, and LOW - E glass had a low operating rate. The industry is in a negative feedback loop [23][24]. - Regional and Non - standard Arbitrage: Regional spreads narrowed, making regional arbitrage more difficult. Non - standard products, especially small - sized glass, were weak, which affected the non - standard arbitrage in Hebei. Large manufacturers no longer supported prices, and regional competition became more differentiated [34]. 3.3.2 Production Changes as the Future Key Variable - Policy: Since the second half of 2025, central policies have focused on "anti - deflation and anti - involution". The Hubei Ecological Environment Department requires energy transformation of glass kilns by the end of 2026, which may significantly impact the market [41][42]. - Supply - side Market Changes: In 2025, the glass industry's supply was slightly high, and production reduction was not active. In 2026, potential new line ignition and old line restart scale are high, but actual production depends on market demand. If demand remains poor, production reduction may resume in the second half of 2026 [50][52]. - Inventory Differentiation: As of November 2025, national glass factory inventory increased by 33.6% year - on - year, with significant regional differences. Inventory differentiation is due to factors such as proximity to demand, direct sales, and deep - processing capacity expansion. This may lead to further fragmentation of the glass industry [60]. 3.4 Photovoltaic Glass - In 2025, the photovoltaic glass market was volatile. Supply increased in the first half of the year but decreased later due to over - capacity. Demand was affected by trade risks and grid consumption factors. Prices fluctuated throughout the year. In 2026, the market may face pressure in the first half, but the second half is not overly pessimistic [68][69][82]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply Surplus Pressure Remains High, Price Fluctuation Range May Shrink - Stock Supply Game: In 2025, soda ash supply changes mainly came from stock supply games. In 2026, glass industry production reduction may drive soda ash production reduction. Seasonal maintenance and matching with glass supply are important factors in soda ash supply [87]. - Inventory Structure and Relative Spread Support: In 2025, the soda ash market was supported by almost equal light - heavy spreads and good export performance. Inventory was concentrated, and high - inventory manufacturers took measures to hedge risks. Future export growth and heavy - to - light soda conversion may support the market [92]. - Long - term Trend: The potential new production capacity of soda ash from the end of 2025 to 2026 is 480 - 630 tons, with a potential increase of over 10%. The long - term problem of high production and high inventory needs to be resolved through industry supply clearance [102].

10，成交尚可 玻璃产销：沙河79，湖北79，华东98，华南104 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1110.0 | 1140.0 | 1140.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1158.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1100.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1094.0 | 1133.0 | 1127.0 | 33.0 | -6.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1218.0 ...