1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with policy expectations yet to be disproven, and there is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic [2] - Bullish factors include anti - involution expectations, rising coal costs, commodity resonance, and the upward movement of the futures market stimulating speculative demand and driving a positive feedback between futures and spot prices [2] - Bearish factors are that the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved [2] - Policy expectations persist, and the futures market remains strong. Attention should be paid to the amplitude of the resonance between the macro and industrial sectors and wait for the next policy guidance [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for soda ash is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling glass prices, short glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1500 and sell call options (FG509C1500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising glass prices, buy glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 and sell put options (FG509P1200) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling soda ash prices, short soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1600 and sell call options (SA509C1600) with a 50% hedging ratio at 40 - 60. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising soda ash prices, buy soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 - 1250 and sell put options (SA509P1300) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 [1] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1461, 1362, and 1426 respectively, with daily increases of 1.67%, 4.21%, and 1.71%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 64, and - 35 respectively, with the (5 - 9) spread decreasing by 31 and the (9 - 1) spread increasing by 31 [2] Glass Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1289.4, an increase of 52.6 from the previous day. The prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase, such as a 30 increase in North China and a 10 increase in South China [5] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1539, 1440, and 1516 respectively, with daily increases of 1.38%, 2.27%, and 2.09%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 76, and - 23 respectively, with varying degrees of change [6] Soda Ash Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash and light soda ash in different regions all increased to varying degrees, such as a 50 increase in North China and a 70 increase in East China [7] Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on the daily output of float glass in China, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in China, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash in China, and the loss volume of soda ash in China, as well as the seasonal data of the basis of glass and soda ash contracts in different regions and the seasonal data of the daily sales - to - production ratio of glass in different regions [8][23][28]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/23 | | 2025/7/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/23 | | 2025/7/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1330.0 | 1390.0 | 180.0 | 60.0 | SA05合 约 | 1307.0 | 1452.0 | 1518.0 | 211.0 | 66.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1190.0 | 1240.0 | 1310.0 | 120.0 | 70.0 | SA01合约 | 1271.0 | 1411.0 | 1485.0 | 214.0 | 74.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1225.0 | 1338.0 | 1408.0 | 183.0 | 70.0 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/24 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/23 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/16 | 2025/7/22 | | | | | 2025/7/16 | 2025/7/22 | | 2025/7/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1220.0 | 1240.0 | 80.0 | 20.0 | FG09合约 | 1070.0 | 1249.0 | 1211.0 | 141.0 | -38.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1164.0 | 1220.0 | 1248.0 | 84.0 | 28.0 | FG01合约 | 1162.0 | 1342.0 | 1309.0 | 147.0 | -33.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1215 1220 1215 1080 1407 1249 1293 1342 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(7/22） 昨日(7/21） 一周前(7/15） 一月前(6/23） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 40 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Supply pressure is rising as the output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbs. The weekly output of float glass last week was 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.63% (-0.05). - Downstream demand is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The number of downstream deep - processing factory order days on July 15 was 9.3 days (-0.2). However, the speculative demand has increased due to the rising market, and the apparent demand for glass has increased month - on - month. The weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000). - The inventory of glass factories decreased last week driven by speculative demand. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000). - The cost of glass decreased last week, while the profit increased. - The domestic anti - involution sentiment is high, and the bullish sentiment is strong, pushing the market to continue rising. There is strong supply pressure in the future. Short - term speculative demand drives the inventory reduction of glass factories. It is recommended to focus on short - term long ideas, and pay attention to the glass index operating range of 1090 - 1200 - 1250. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - The maintenance of soda ash plants has ended, and the production of soda ash is gradually recovering. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600). - The production of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined and will continue to decline, leading to a downward expectation for the demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons. - The inventory of soda ash plants rebounded from a high level last week. With the recovery of supply and the implementation of photovoltaic production cuts, the inventory accumulation trend of soda ash plants is difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500). - According to Steel Union, the cost of soda ash increased slightly last week, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240. - The supply of soda ash is gradually recovering, while the production of glass has significantly weakened, putting pressure on the demand side. There is strong inventory accumulation pressure in the long term. Currently, the macro - sentiment has a large impact on the market. It is advisable to wait and see for now. After the sentiment fades, pay attention to the idea of shorting on rallies. The operating range of the soda ash index is 1220 - 1350. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbed, with the weekly output of float glass last week at 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate at 75.63% (-0.05) [11][13]. Demand - Speculative demand drove the apparent demand to increase month - on - month, while the number of deep - processing order days decreased month - on - month. On July 15, the number of downstream deep - processing factory order days was 9.3 days (-0.2), and downstream demand was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The rising market drove up speculative demand, and the weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000) [15][17]. Inventory - Short - term speculative demand rebounded, driving the inventory reduction of glass factories. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises last week was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000) [19][20]. Cost and Profit - The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1442 yuan/ton (-1); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1004 yuan/ton (-7); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1053 yuan/ton (-27). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 178.9 yuan/ton (+4.21); using coal - made gas as fuel was 121.83 yuan/ton (+13.05); using petroleum coke as fuel was - 4.76 yuan/ton (+45.71) [29][31][35]. Basis and Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the glass 01 basis was - 125, the glass 05 basis was - 200, and the glass 09 basis was - 41. The basis had a weak driving force on the market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 84, and the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 75. There were no calendar spread opportunities [40][44]. Soda Ash Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants ended, and the production of soda ash gradually recovered. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600) [51][53]. Demand - The production of photovoltaic glass significantly declined, putting pressure on the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons, and the apparent demand for soda ash last week was 691000 tons (+36000), including 364200 tons of heavy soda ash apparent demand (+31500) and 326800 tons of light soda ash apparent demand (+4500) [55][58][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants increased month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation trend was difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500) [64][66]. Profit and Cost - The cost increased slightly, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240 [71][72]. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of July 18, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 59, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 100, and the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis had a weak driving force, and it was advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 49, and the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 41. There were no calendar spread opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 100, the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 66, and the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 135. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea [79][83][88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided reports Group 3: Summary of Glass Information Price Changes - From July 14 to July 21, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1160.0 to 1207.0, a weekly increase of 47.0 [1]. - FG09 contract price rose from 1102.0 to 1173.0, a weekly increase of 71.0; FG01 contract price increased from 1196.0 to 1254.0, a weekly increase of 58.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit increased from 276.2 to 281.7, a weekly increase of 5.5; North China coal - fired cost increased from 879.8 to 895.3, a weekly increase of 15.5 [1]. - South China natural gas glass profit remained at - 118.6; North China natural gas glass profit increased from - 203.4 to - 192.9, a weekly increase of 10.5 [1]. Sales and Production - Glass sales and production data showed that the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 114, in Hubei was 108, in East China was 106, and in South China was 101 [1]. Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Information Price Changes - From July 14 to July 21, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased from 1230.0 to 1280.0, a weekly increase of 50.0 [1]. - SA05 contract price rose from 1311.0 to 1390.0, a weekly increase of 79.0; SA01 contract price increased from 1286.0 to 1354.0, a weekly increase of 68.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 75.6 to - 33.2, a weekly increase of 42.4; North China combined - soda process profit increased from - 60.9 to - 35.0, a weekly increase of 25.9 [1]. Market Conditions - Soda ash spot market: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1260, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1280. The downstream purchasing willingness for heavy soda ash was poor [1]. - Soda ash industry: Factory inventory decreased slightly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Sideways [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of glass are stable, and market sentiment dominates. Soda ash has a weak fundamental situation but positive market sentiment [3][4]. - The "anti - involution" theme is the main trading logic in the short - term, improving overall sentiment and causing glass and soda ash prices to rise. Glass has demand resilience and price support, while soda ash faces price pressure due to supply increase and demand weakening [40][41][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 158,400 tons, industry start - up rate is 75.68%, and capacity utilization is 79.2%, all unchanged from the 10th. No new ignition or water - release production lines this week, and one pre - ignited line may produce glass next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish, with short - term resilience despite overall pressure in the off - season. Mid - term demand is a concern due to the weak real estate situation [3]. - Inventory: Bullish, with significant inventory reduction. Enterprise inventory is 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with volatile basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [3]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding from the low point and cost support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [3]. - Investment View: Bullish, with short - term supply - demand stability and sentiment - driven [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy call options for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with increased supply. This week's production is 733,200 tons, a 3.42% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash production is 318,500 tons, and heavy soda ash production is 414,700 tons, both increasing. Supply is expected to continue rising next week [4]. - Demand: Bearish, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [4]. - Inventory: Bearish, with increased inventory. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with a weakening basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [4]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding and cost support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [4]. - Investment View: Sideways, with a weak fundamental situation but positive sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: No single - side or arbitrage strategy [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1081 (+55), and the Shahe spot price was 1088 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1216 (+42), and the Shahe spot price was 1215 (+13) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated, and the basis fluctuated [20]. - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable, and production profits have slightly recovered. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 178.90 yuan/ton, a 4.21 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas is 121.83 yuan/ton, a 13.05 - yuan/ton increase; using petroleum coke is - 4.76 yuan/ton, a 45.71 - yuan/ton increase [23]. - Demand: Resilient. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, with an average order days of 9.3 days, a 2.1% week - on - week and a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [26][27]. - Inventory: Significantly reduced, with enterprise inventory at 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Increasing. Production has increased, and production profits are decreasing. Ammonia - soda method theoretical profit is - 83.20 yuan/ton, a 0.90 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease; combined - soda method theoretical profit (double - ton) is - 33.50 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [32][33]. - Demand: Weakening, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with expected production cuts. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [36]. - Inventory: Increasing. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to be characterized by strong supply and weak demand this week, with prices expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Traders are advised to pay attention to macro and policy impacts, operate cautiously, and control positions to manage potential volatility risks [10]. - Given the current fundamental pressure and unclear policies, traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and be wary of the risk of chasing high prices [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 ranged between 1247 - 1202 yuan/ton, showing low - level fluctuations. As of the afternoon close on July 18, 2025, the contract fell 1 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of - 0.18%, closing at 1216 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - As of July 17, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 73.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 million tons, or 3.42%. Light soda ash production was 31.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons, and heavy soda ash production was 41.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. The increase was due to the resumption of enterprise maintenance [7][11]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.10%, compared with 81.32% last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [15]. - **Inventory** - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 190.56 million tons, an increase of 2.16 million tons from Monday, or 1.15%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 4.22 million tons, or 2.26%. The inventory was 100.61 million tons more than the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 111.85% [8][19]. - **Demand Side** - The shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash increased. Last week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 69.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%; the overall shipment rate was 94.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points [9][37]. - The daily output of the float glass industry decreased by 0.38% compared to the 10th. The weekly output from July 11 - 17, 2025, was 110.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14% [25]. - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 billion weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 billion weight boxes, or 3.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period [29]. - **Spot Market Price** - The prices of most soda ash products in various regions remained stable, with only a few products having price changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 2.25%, the price of Northeast light soda ash decreased by 3.70%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 4.26% [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply side shows continuous increases in production and capacity utilization, with individual devices increasing production. The supply is adjusted at a high level. The demand side shows stable downstream demand, with an increase in shipment volume and rate. However, the demand is relatively weak, and the industry faces significant over - capacity pressure [9][37][38]. - The market is currently focused on the 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Although the market sentiment was boosted by the news of the upcoming policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the actual impact remains to be seen as the specific policy details are not yet available [38].

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0011243 [1] Glass Market Supply - As of July 17, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to July 10. The daily loss of float glass was 42,200 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 239,000 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 10,530 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. The potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [11][12][13] - Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - operation capacity is about 158,000 tons/day, with a peak capacity of 178,000 tons/day in 2021 and a recent low - level capacity of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period and a 7.0% decrease year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders basically maintained the previous level, with no sign of improvement in demand, and the current profit level was still low, with a few reporting a continued decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.163 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a 3.22% decrease, and a 0.29% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in most regions decreased slightly [3][37]. Price and Profit - This week's transactions were basically stable, with most prices unchanged. Some prices in Shahe increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased prices by 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [20][23]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was weak. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas and coal fuel was about - 183 - 108 yuan/ton [26][31]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating strongly, with upper pressure at 1,180 - 1,200 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [4]. Photovoltaic Glass Market Price and Profit - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased slightly, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.33% decrease from the previous period, and the decline rate increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, remaining flat compared to the previous period [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - As the market weakens, it may enter a production reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity was about 94,000 tons/day. The sample inventory days were about 35.64 days, a 2.94% increase from the previous period, and the increase rate narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared to last week [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Market Supply - This week, soda ash enterprises' equipment gradually resumed and increased production. The domestic soda ash output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Some enterprises were in the process of maintenance or production reduction, and some were expected to have maintenance in the future [6][59]. Demand - The profits of downstream float glass processes have gradually improved, especially the profit of coal - gas production is relatively optimistic, but the production of petroleum coke and natural gas is still in a loss state. Photovoltaic glass profit is at a low level. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are generally cautious in purchasing soda ash, and demand has not expanded significantly [6]. Inventory - This period, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous period and a 111.85% increase year - on - year. The inventory of light soda ash was 783,000 tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1226 million tons, an increase of 505,000 tons from the previous period [7]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton. This week's prices changed little. The basis was weak, and the monthly spread was under pressure. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 39.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 82 yuan/ton [70][73][81]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, with upper pressure at 1,320 - 1,340 and lower support at 1,220 and 1,150. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]