Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - risk sectors like AI are showing divergence. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the main idea is to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, in August, economic data continued to slow down. The "anti - involution" policy led to a price increase, but the export may face pressure. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' monetary policy statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, although the Fed's statements are less dovish than expected, if the interest - rate cut progresses, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation, and short - term price trends vary [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may fall if demand fails to recover. Iron ore prices will oscillate. Glass may be bullish in the short - term, while soda ash will continue to oscillate. The black sector may face a short - term correction but may have long - term multi - allocation value [33][36][38][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended to be observed after the holiday. Crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation. Methanol and urea can be considered for long positions on dips. Other chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends [55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trends of different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains vary, and corresponding trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations [80][82][84]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The state is studying measures to standardize copper smelting capacity construction. The total scale of public funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has optimized the "Swap Connect" mechanism. Shangwei New Materials will be suspended for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - risk sectors are showing divergence. The short - term index faces uncertainty, but the long - term is bullish on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The central bank's deputy governor proposed measures to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Economic data in August was weak. The "anti - involution" policy affected exports. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices rose. US economic data exceeded expectations, and the market's recession expectation eased. Fed Chairman Powell's statement implied possible policy adjustments [8][9]. - **Strategy**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to strong US employment and durable goods data, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices fell back. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import loss of domestic copper spot increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's hawkish statement may put short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic social inventories decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **Strategy**: Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, aluminum prices have strong support below as the holiday approaches [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. Domestic and foreign zinc inventories decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio weakened [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector cooled. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. Domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the basis changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The shortage of raw materials suppresses the start - up of primary smelting, while the start - up of secondary smelting recovers. Downstream demand increases, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although refined nickel inventory pressure drags down nickel prices, in the long - term, there are positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. Domestic and foreign inventories changed. The supply of tin concentrate was tight, and demand was in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. It is recommended to observe, and the price will continue to oscillate [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain the same. The spot is tight in the peak season, but the supply increase expectation suppresses the upside. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. Due to a strike in Guinea, the supply risk of ore increased, and the import window opened [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore disturbances may have a limited short - term impact. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to observe [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose. Spot prices were stable, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: Domestic steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The downstream is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory changes [29]. - **Strategy**: The peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure. The price is supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions of the main contracts changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was positive, but the demand for steel was weak. If demand fails to recover, steel prices may fall [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and demand increased. Port and steel - mill inventories changed. Iron - ore prices will oscillate [35][36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: The glass main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [37]. - **Glass Strategy**: Six departments banned new flat - glass production capacity, and prices rose in the short - term. However, demand is weak. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [38]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Soda Ash Strategy**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with limited price fluctuations. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The market was affected by policies [40][41][42]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and "anti - involution" sentiment affect the black sector. Although there is a short - term correction risk, there may be long - term multi - allocation value [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose. The spot price and basis changed [45]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon has not changed significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand and policy changes [46][47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: The price of polysilicon was stable. The spot price and basis changed [48]. - **Polysilicon Strategy**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weak. There were factors such as expected state reserves release, changes in the position structure, and weather impacts [51]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is a long - term idea. In the short - term, it is recommended to observe and look for opportunities after the holiday [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined products rose. US inventory data changed [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended for multi - allocation, as the current price is supported by fundamentals, and there is upside potential if geopolitical premiums return [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changed. The basis and spread changed [58][59]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea was stable. The basis and spread changed [60]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene rose. The basis and spread changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed, and inventory changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is under pressure. It is recommended to observe [69][70]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to observe [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy**: The market expects favorable policies. The price may oscillate upward [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [75][76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally rebounding. The inventory pressure is high. There is no obvious short - term contradiction [77]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly fell. The supply exceeded demand before the holiday [79]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Egg - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with a few declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [81]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to fall, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and buy the far - month contract after a decline [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of US soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean - meal price and inventory changed. Argentina's export tax policy affected the market [83]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is loose. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [84]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The exports and production of Malaysian palm oil changed. Indonesia's palm - oil data changed. India bought a large amount of soybean oil. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected increase in demand support the oil price. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell back. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [88]. - **Strategy**: Affected by imports and production increases, the sugar price is expected to fall. It is recommended to observe before the National Day [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weak. The spot price and inventory changed [90]. - **Strategy**: The downstream start - up rate is weak, and there is an expected increase in production. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, but there is support below. It is recommended to observe [91].

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has become the largest carbon trading market globally, covering a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions [1][4] - The cumulative transaction volume of the carbon market has exceeded 49 billion yuan, with nearly 720 million tons of carbon allowances traded [2] - The market has expanded its coverage to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The carbon market's trading scale reached a historical high since 2024, indicating increased market vitality [2] - The "waste-to-energy" system implemented in the cement industry can consume over 150,000 tons of solid waste annually, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 300,000 tons [2] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Development - A central document was issued in August to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, outlining key tasks and action plans [3] - The national carbon market conference serves as a platform to share China's experiences with emerging economies, promoting the adoption of carbon market mechanisms for green development [3] Group 3: International Recognition - The achievements of China's carbon market have been recognized by international guests, highlighting its role in optimizing resource allocation and guiding industry emissions reductions [4] - The European Union has expressed admiration for China's leadership in green transformation and renewable energy deployment [5] - International organizations acknowledge China's positive experiences in green development, which inspire confidence in global emission reduction efforts [6]

Core Points - China announced new national contribution targets at the UN Climate Change Summit, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [1] - The total installed capacity for wind and solar power is targeted to exceed 360 million kilowatts, which is more than six times the capacity in 2020 [1] - The new targets reflect China's commitment to global climate governance and are a strategic continuation of its domestic "dual carbon" process [1] Group 1 - As of August 2023, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power surpassed 1.69 billion kilowatts, contributing 80% of new power installations since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - To meet the new targets, nearly 2 billion kilowatts of new capacity must be added over the next decade, requiring an average annual increase of around 200 million kilowatts [2] - The development of wind and solar power is crucial for China to achieve its emission reduction goals and is supported by advancements in photovoltaic and wind power technology [2] Group 2 - The new targets are a scientific response to China's energy transition strategy, with expectations of continued economic growth and rising energy demands in various sectors [3] - By 2024, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to decrease by 11.6%, making it one of the fastest countries in terms of energy intensity reduction [3] - The new national contribution targets represent a revolutionary upgrade, covering all greenhouse gases and not just carbon dioxide emissions [3] Group 3 - The new targets provide a clear policy signal for the next decade, indicating a decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions [4] - China's carbon market is expanding, with major industries like steel, cement, and aluminum already included, and plans to extend to petrochemical, chemical, and aviation sectors [4] - By 2027, the national carbon market is expected to cover the main emission industries in the industrial sector [4]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,300 new key emission units added, leading to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons, now covering over 60% of the national CO2 emissions [1] - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached 696 million tons, with a total transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan [1] - The market is becoming more active, with a 44% increase in daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion yuan in 2024, the highest since the market's inception [2] Market Activity - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries has led to 1,277 new trading accounts being opened by key emission units as of August 2025 [2] - The trading willingness among key emission units has increased, with total buy and sell orders in the market rising by 232% year-on-year [2] - The average closing price of carbon credits was 69.30 yuan per ton as of August 2025, maintaining a reasonable range despite a global decline in carbon prices [2] Green Transition - The carbon market has played a crucial role in reducing carbon intensity in the power sector, which decreased by 10.8% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - A total of 564 key emission units in the power sector have achieved surplus quotas, amounting to 58.25 million tons, translating to approximately 4 billion yuan in revenue based on the average closing price [3] Policy Support - The central government has issued a comprehensive policy document aimed at advancing the national carbon market, with goals to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 and establish a robust trading system by 2030 [4] - The People's Bank of China is enhancing the green finance system to support the transition to a low-carbon economy [4] Data Governance - The establishment of a refined management process is seen as a key indicator of the maturity of the carbon market's data governance system [5] - Recommendations include developing cross-border carbon trading management measures to support international trading [5]

Core Insights - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market now includes steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, increasing the total number of key emission units by over 1,300 and raising the total greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons, covering over 60% of the national carbon emissions [1][2] Group 1: Market Participation and Trading Dynamics - In 2024, the number of key emission units participating in the national carbon emissions trading market reached 1,471, a 1.38% increase from the previous compliance cycle, with trading activity showing an 18% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [2] - The willingness of key emission units to trade has increased significantly, with a 232% year-on-year rise in the total buy and sell orders for listed agreement trading by the end of August 2025 [2] - The number of key emission units selling quotas increased by 11.24% compared to the previous compliance cycle, indicating a gradual improvement in market supply and trading activity [2] Group 2: Trading Products and Price Trends - The national carbon emissions trading market has diversified its trading products, with five categories of carbon emission quotas released for trading, totaling transaction volumes of 287 million tons, 49.19 million tons, 194 million tons, 133 million tons, and 32.27 million tons for the years 2019 to 2024 [2] - In 2024, the total trading volume was 0.37 million tons for listed agreement trading and 1.52 million tons for bulk agreement trading, with the introduction of single-sided bidding trading in July 2025 enhancing market vitality [3] - The average closing price for carbon emissions in 2024 ranged from 69 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 97.49 yuan/ton at year-end, reflecting a 103.10% increase from the opening price on the first trading day in 2021 [3]

Group 1 - The national carbon market in China achieved a record high transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB as of August 2024, marking the highest annual total since the market's launch in 2021 [1] - In 2024, the carbon emission trading market operated for 242 trading days, with an average daily transaction volume increasing by 43.55% compared to the previous compliance cycle, resulting in a total transaction volume of 1.89 million tons and a total transaction value of 18.114 billion RMB [1] - The carbon intensity of electricity generation in 2024 decreased by 10.8% compared to 2018, indicating the significant role of the carbon market in achieving emission reductions [1] Group 2 - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market was launched as a key policy tool to support China's "dual carbon" goals, with the first batch of certified voluntary emission reductions starting trading in March 2025 [2] - As of August 2024, the cumulative transaction volume in the voluntary reduction market reached 2.7061 million tons, with a transaction value of 229 million RMB and average prices exceeding 100 RMB per ton [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to steadily expand the coverage of the carbon market, enrich trading varieties and methods, and enhance international cooperation in the carbon market sector [2]

Group 1 - The "National Standards Going to the Grassroots" event was held in Gansu Province to promote the implementation of national carbon emission standards in key industries [1] - The event focused on five critical sectors: energy, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new materials, and provided authoritative interpretations of the latest carbon emission standards [1] - Nearly 500 professionals from related enterprises, third-party verification agencies, and research institutions participated, enhancing carbon emission management capabilities [1] Group 2 - Gansu Province is leveraging national carbon emission standards to drive green and low-carbon transformation, helping enterprises clarify carbon accounting boundaries and reduction responsibilities [2] - Over 60 enterprises in the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are included in the national carbon market, with power generation companies achieving 100% compliance in quota submissions for five consecutive years [2] - The carbon emission quota trading volume reached 15.02 million tons, with a transaction value of 0.925 billion yuan, and a provincial climate investment policy has mobilized approximately 16 billion yuan for green projects [2]

Group 1 - The "National Standards Going to the Grassroots" event in Gansu Province aims to promote the understanding and implementation of the latest national carbon emission standards among key industry enterprises [1] - The event featured authoritative interpretations of five newly released national standards, focusing on carbon emission quantification methods, monitoring specifications, reporting requirements, and verification points in critical sectors such as energy, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new materials [1] - Approximately 500 professional representatives from related enterprises, third-party verification agencies, and research institutions attended the event, enhancing their carbon emission management capabilities and solidifying the data foundation for achieving carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 2 - Since the introduction of the dual carbon goals in 2020, China has established a policy framework for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, resulting in a continuous decrease in carbon dioxide emission intensity [2] - Gansu Province has led the way in carbon emission standards, helping enterprises clarify carbon emission accounting boundaries and responsibilities, while actively optimizing energy structures and implementing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations [2] - Over 60 enterprises in the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are included in the national carbon market, with key power generation enterprises achieving 100% compliance with quota submissions for five consecutive years [2] - The carbon emission quota trading volume reached 15.02 million tons, with a transaction value of 925 million yuan, and Gansu's first provincial climate investment and financing policy has mobilized approximately 16 billion yuan to support green projects [2] - Gansu Province has achieved a cumulative carbon intensity reduction of 56.3%, contributing significantly to the national carbon market expansion and climate investment innovation [2]

Core Insights - China is actively promoting efforts to address climate change and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, establishing the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system [1] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power has already met the 2030 national contribution target ahead of schedule [1] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's carbon dioxide emission intensity has been continuously declining [1] Carbon Market Development - The construction of the national carbon market is progressing positively, with the establishment of the largest carbon trading market globally covering greenhouse gas emissions [1] - This year, new sectors including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting have been included, effectively managing over 60% of the national carbon dioxide emissions [1] - As of September 18, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national market reached 714 million tons, with a total transaction value of 48.961 billion yuan [1] - The standardization, accuracy, and timeliness of carbon emission data statistics and accounting have significantly improved [1]

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the importance of high-level ecological protection in promoting high-quality development, with a focus on climate change as a significant global challenge [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has made substantial progress in establishing a national carbon market, which is now the largest in the world, covering over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of 714 million tons and a total transaction value of 48.961 billion yuan as of September 18, 2025 [2] - The market has seen improvements in the standardization, accuracy, and timeliness of carbon emissions data statistics [2] - The carbon market is recognized as a significant measure for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, enhancing China's efforts to address climate change [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The Ministry has initiated the establishment of a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and has issued several key documents to support the carbon market's development [1] - Over 30 regulatory measures have been formulated, contributing to a multi-tiered and relatively complete regulatory framework for the carbon market [1]