天铁科技（300587.SZ）1月7日在投资者互动平台表示，西藏中鑫目前正在推进西藏班戈错盐湖2000t/a 氯化锂中试生产线建设，目前尚未给安徽天铁供货；安徽天铁的原材料目前主要为碳酸锂、氢氧化锂、 正丁醇、含锂卤水等；公司业绩的情况请关注公司披露于指定媒体的定期报告。 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司参股西藏中鑫有给安徽天铁供货么？安徽天铁原 材料是什么？今年碳酸锂大涨对安徽天铁业绩有改善么？ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate [1][2] - The market for lithium carbonate remains hot, and its price is expected to fluctuate upward in a range, focusing on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures opened more than 4% higher, hit an 8.99% daily limit in the afternoon and closed at that level. The main contract closed at 137,940 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 304,200 lots and open interest increasing to 535,000 lots. The main net short position pattern continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [1] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon was 127,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. After the price increase, the market is in a state where upstream suppliers are reluctant to sell and downstream buyers are afraid of high prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the supply side further released production capacity. The cost - side support continued to strengthen, and the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise [2] - There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory reduction, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal have reached a high level, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand [2] - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM sample's total weekly inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the de - stocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as last week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [2] - At the policy level, the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the 14th Five - Year Plan for Energy Storage, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations [3] - On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and the news of mine resumption has an impact. The upward driving force still exists, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply and demand [3]

碳酸锂基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 碳酸锂：供给收缩担忧叠加需求向好预期，价格重 心上移 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 127,000 | 7,000 | 5,460 | 22,560 | 32,140 | 53,420 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 2,806 | -3,191 | -30,573 | -34,825 | -70,390 | -117,409 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 7,060 | -4,225 | -19,432 | -61,809 | -230,322 | -165,565 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价） | 129 ...

1月2日电池级氢氧化锂报价11.06万元/吨，工业级10.2万元/吨，均较12月初涨超34%。 氢氧化锂10天内涨幅达18.43%，30天累计涨34.01%。 盐湖股份拟收购五矿盐湖51%股权，可能影响未来供应格局。 供需基本面>> 需求端：新能源车和储能市场持续火热，电池级氢氧化锂需求激增，但高端产能释放慢，导致结构性短 缺。 供应端：部分氢氧化锂生产企业因成本压力或设备检修，降低生产负荷，导致市场供应量减少。原料自 给能力较弱的企业受锂辉石等原料采购困难影响，开工率进一步受限，加剧了供应紧张局面。 成本端：上游锂矿价格走高，叠加磷酸铁锂涨价潮，成本压力直接传导到氢氧化锂。 市场预期：行业普遍预期涨价会持续，部分企业甚至暂停接单，进一步推高价格。赣锋锂业董事长预测 2026年碳酸锂价格可能突破15万元/吨，甚至冲击20万元/吨，较当前价格翻倍。市场对供应担忧加重， 空头止损离场，多头情绪高涨，进一步推高了价格。 标志 碳酸锂价格趋势图(万元/吨) 灰酸性 14 11.98 11.89 11.83 11.78 12 10.98 10- 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 2025/12/30 2025 ...

2025年12月调研产量为9.82万吨，环比上涨4.6%。本月碳酸锂冶炼厂产量有增有减，江西锂云母大厂在 12月由于原料短缺有所减量，某锂辉厂厂家解决原料问题复工带动产量提升，中部地区有几个厂家产线 投产，其他大部分厂家保持平稳开工。2026年1月调研国内排产为9.5万吨，环比下跌3.2%。 机构观点 南华期货（603093）：短期来看，碳酸锂期货价格走势将更多受市场乐观情绪驱动，但由于价格涨幅过 快，市场情绪较旺，需警惕因获利平仓所导致的大幅波动。中长期视角看，储能、新能源乘用车和商用 车下游应用领域的需求增长逻辑未发生本质变化，行业基本面对于碳酸锂的长期价值支撑依旧稳固，碳 酸锂仍具备逢低布多的机会。操作层面，建议投资者聚焦回调后的结构性做多机会，依托基本面锚定合 理估值区间进行分批布局，避免盲目追高而受到短期波动的风险，建议以更稳健的策略应对市场波动。 五矿期货：上周发改委、财政部发布2026年支持汽车报废更新和置换更新政策的通知，对新能源汽车需 求形成利好。但与2025年相比，汽车补贴由定额补贴调整为比例补贴，对于低价车型，补贴力度有所转 弱。一季度锂电需求进入淡季，下游高价接货意愿有限，但未来供需向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the destocking pace slowed down, and both supply and demand weakened. The market will shift from destocking to inventory accumulation, with an estimated inventory increase of at least about 5,000 tons. The fundamental weakening is expected to have a phased negative impact on prices. However, due to the current inventory structure and the medium - to - long - term bullish trading logic for lithium prices, there will still be restocking demand when prices fall [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - The monthly main contract of lithium carbonate rose 26%, and the prices across the industry chain strengthened. For example, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased from 96,420 yuan/ton on November 28, 2025, to 121,580 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, with an increase of 25,160 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons. Specifically, downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, inventory in other links increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons [4][5][19]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, and export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but no specific profit data is summarized [28][29]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. Lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increased by 60 tons to 13,924 tons, lithium mica production increased by 70 tons to 2,936 tons, salt - lake lithium production increased by 70 tons to 3,145 tons, and recycled material - derived lithium production increased by 59 tons to 2,415 tons. In January 2026, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons, with salt - lake, mica, and recycled lithium production decreasing by 0.3%, 6.4%, and 7.4% respectively, and lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increasing by 0.7% [4][5][41]. 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - In January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons [4][5]. 3.4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In January 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons [4][5][72]. 3.4.4 Lithium Batteries - In January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium - iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium - iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh [4][5][81]. 3.5 Terminal 3.5.1 New Energy Vehicles - The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026. New energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, but a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][5][86]. 3.5.2 Energy Storage - The document presents charts of energy - storage battery capacity, start - up rate, bidding, winning bids, and installation, but no specific summarized data is provided [89][90]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The document presents charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but no specific summarized balance data is provided [91][92]. 3.7 Options - The document presents charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest of lithium carbonate closing prices, but no specific summarized data is provided [93][95][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range-bound consolidation. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support for prices [1][2]. - The view on raw materials (carbonate lithium) is that it will stabilize in a range-bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes. The supply side is releasing more capacity, the cost - side support is strengthening, short - term demand declines slightly while long - term demand support is solid, and the inventory is tight but its support for prices is weakening [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or plan to shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. The finished products continued to decline in a range - bound manner yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center moves down. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing limited price support [1][2]. - **View**: Operate in a range - bound consolidation [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand [2] Raw Materials (Carbonate Lithium) - **Logic**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM carbonate lithium increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week. The cost - side support is strengthening as upstream raw material prices continue to rise. On the demand side, short - term demand slightly decreases while long - term demand support is solid. SMM data shows that the production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 3.2% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week last week, and the production of power cells decreased by 0.92% week - on - week. The inventory of ternary increased by 3.2% week - on - week, and that of lithium iron decreased by 0.98% week - on - week. The SMM sample total inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, with a slower de - stocking slope, and the total inventory days remained at 26.1 days. The inventory structure is shifting from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The inventory is still tight, but its support for prices is weakening [2]. - **View**: Stabilize in a range - bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies, capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, capital and sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium resource market is experiencing a resurgence, prompting Shengxin Lithium Energy to accelerate its acquisition of lithium mining resources, specifically through the purchase of a 30% stake in Sichuan Qicheng Mining Co., Ltd. for 2.08 billion yuan, aiming for full ownership [1][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Shengxin Lithium Energy previously acquired a 21% stake in Qicheng Mining for 1.456 billion yuan just three months prior, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing control over the company [2][5]. - The total expenditure for acquiring Qicheng Mining has exceeded 3.536 billion yuan, with both transactions reflecting a high premium on the company's valuation of approximately 6.933 billion yuan [5][8]. - The mining rights for the Muzhong Lithium Mine, owned by Qicheng Mining's subsidiary, are a significant asset, as it is one of the highest-grade lithium mines in Sichuan with an average grade of 1.62% [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Contracts - Despite facing temporary operational pressure due to fluctuations in lithium salt prices, Shengxin Lithium Energy reported a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a net profit of 0.89 billion yuan [3][14]. - The company has secured long-term supply contracts totaling 421,400 tons of lithium salt, with an estimated contract value exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for its products [3][11][12]. - The stock price of Shengxin Lithium Energy has doubled over the past six months, closing at 34.43 yuan per share, reflecting a market capitalization exceeding 30 billion yuan [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongkuang Resources has successfully completed the construction of a 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt technical upgrade project, which is set to begin trial production on January 2, 2026, following a six-month suspension for upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - The total investment for the 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project is 121 million yuan, funded by the company's own or self-raised funds [1]. - The project aims to enhance lithium recovery rates and reduce production costs, with main products being battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, while by-products include sodium sulfate [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached 3.267 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.89%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 81.16% to 89.1289 million yuan [2]. - The company's non-recurring net profit dropped by 98.31% to 7.5034 million yuan during the same period [2]. Group 3: Market Context - The lithium carbonate market experienced significant changes in the second half of 2025, with supply-demand dynamics improving due to unexpected growth in the energy storage market, leading to a substantial price increase [3]. - As of December 31, 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures closed at 121,600 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced between 115,000 and 122,000 yuan per ton, averaging 118,500 yuan per ton [3]. - Following the completion of the technical upgrade project, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery-grade lithium salts, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) has completed the construction of a high-purity lithium salt technical transformation project with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons, which commenced trial production on January 2, 2026, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the lithium salt business [1] Group 1 - The project was developed by Zhongmin Resources' wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhongmin Lithium Industry (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd [1] - After the project is put into operation, the total annual production capacity of battery-grade lithium salt will reach 71,000 tons [1] - The enhancement in production capacity will enable the company to better respond to industry changes and market challenges [1]