德康农牧(02419)发布公告，于2026年1月21日，该公司斥资779.56万港元回购11.43万股股份，每股回购 价格为67.3-70港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a traceability system in Ethiopia's livestock sector aims to modernize the industry, enhance export capabilities, and improve the livelihoods of local farmers through better management and quality assurance [4][5][7]. Group 1: Project Overview - The livestock value chain capacity building project, initiated in 2021 by China, Ethiopia, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, focuses on creating a traceability system for livestock to support policy development, certification, and trade negotiations [4][5]. - The project is part of a broader initiative to implement global development goals in African countries, showcasing the potential of international cooperation [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Livestock is a crucial component of Ethiopia's agricultural economy, contributing approximately 20% to the country's export revenue [5]. - The project aims to address long-standing challenges in the livestock sector, such as the shortage of quality feed and inadequate services, which have hindered development [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - A comprehensive livestock identification and traceability system has been implemented, allowing for real-time data synchronization and intelligent management of livestock throughout their lifecycle [6][8]. - The project includes customized training for Ethiopian personnel on quality inspection standards and disease prevention, enhancing the capacity for international market compliance [6][8]. Group 4: Training and Capacity Building - Over 500 Ethiopian professionals have participated in specialized training on food safety standards, slaughterhouse management, and meat inspection techniques, with 25 trainers certified as international meat inspectors [10]. - The establishment of a cooperation demonstration center represents an upgraded model of international collaboration, focusing on demand-driven and skills-based approaches [10][11]. Group 5: Market Competitiveness - The introduction of the traceability system has improved the market competitiveness of Ethiopian livestock products, enabling farmers to receive a price increase of approximately 15% for tagged animals [7]. - The project has facilitated the development of a meat industry portal, digitizing inspection processes and enhancing compliance with international standards [9].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with live pig futures experiencing a slight decline of 1.29%, settling at 11,465.00 yuan/ton [1] - In the spot market, domestic pig prices have generally decreased, with the average price in Henan dropping by 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, while prices in Sichuan remained stable at 13.02 yuan/kg [2] - The supply side indicates that the pace of hog slaughter may accelerate before the Spring Festival, with some producers potentially advancing their slaughter schedules to this month [2] Group 2 - The supply of live pigs remains high, with production reduction being relatively slow, leading to a loose supply situation for both live pigs and pork [2] - Demand analysis suggests that upcoming cold weather and precipitation may complicate the slaughter process, while the approach of the Spring Festival is expected to support pig prices due to increased stocking activities [2] - Future market trends indicate a slight increase in live pig supply, with high levels of breeding stock remaining, and the market is expected to experience weak fluctuations post-festival [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - Pig prices are maintaining a narrow - range fluctuation with terminal sales remaining flat. The spot price of pigs has slightly declined, showing regional differentiation. The northern market is weaker than the southern one. After the Spring Festival stocking season starts, it is expected to support pig prices. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on pig prices after the weakening of the bullish sentiment [1][2] - The overall egg price is stable, with a slight decline in some areas. The positive effect of Spring Festival stocking on egg prices is weakening. The egg production capacity is at a high level, and the market supply pressure is increasing. The egg price is under pressure due to the weakening sentiment, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period [4] Group 3: Summary by Market (Pig Market) Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the live - hog 2603 contract was 11,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 155.00 yuan/ton (- 1.32%) from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of external ternary live - hogs in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 13.23 yuan/kg, 13.66 yuan/kg, and 12.98 yuan/kg respectively, with corresponding daily price changes of - 0.08 yuan/kg, + 0.01 yuan/kg, and + 0.01 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.1% to 18.47 yuan/kg [1] Market Analysis - Pig spot prices have slightly declined with regional differences. The bullish sentiment in the north is not supported, while the southern prices have risen. The willingness of farmers to hold prices is weakening, and the Spring Festival stocking has not started yet. The daily slaughter volume of enterprises is increasing slowly, and the terminal sales are not strong enough to absorb price increases. Snowy weather may delay pig sales, and the Spring Festival stocking is expected to support prices later [2] Group 4: Summary by Market (Egg Market) Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the egg 2603 contract was 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 4.00 yuan (+ 0.13%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Liaoning, Shandong, and Hebei were 3.44 yuan/jin, 3.80 yuan/jin, and 3.40 yuan/jin respectively, with no daily price change. On January 20, 2026, the national production - link inventory was 0.39 days, an increase of 0.05 days (14.71%) from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.45 days, an increase of 0.03 days (7.14%) [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices are generally stable with a slight decline in some areas. The positive effect of Spring Festival stocking on egg prices is weakening. The egg - producing capacity is at a high level, the downstream circulation speed is slowing down, and the supply pressure is increasing. Traders are more cautious in purchasing, and the inventory pressure in the sales areas is rising, strengthening the bearish market sentiment [4]

在埃塞俄比亚农业部下属的动物产品和投入 品质量检测中心，质量分析师法努埃尔正在进行样本检测。沈小晓摄 50岁的沙维基，与家人生活在埃塞俄比亚南奥莫地区的博里村。30多只羊、20多头牛、3头驴，是沙维 基一家七口的主要经济来源。"不瞒你说，对给它们佩戴耳标这件事，我起初是有些担心的，村里很多 人也和我一样。与专家们交流后，对耳标和可追溯系统有了更多了解，才放下心来。"沙维基说着，掏 出手机扫描了一只羊耳标上的二维码，屏幕上显示出这只羊的出生日期、疫苗记录等。他笑着说："牛 羊有了耳标、登记了编号，相当于有了'身份证'。" 为埃塞畜牧业生产和出口建立信息追溯系统，是2021年中国、埃塞和联合国工业发展组织三方共同启动 的埃塞畜牧业价值链能力建设项目的一部分。该项目旨在通过支持制定政策框架、加强认证和检验体 系、改善贸易谈判以及促进技术知识交流，推动埃塞畜牧业的现代化。这也是全球发展倡议在非洲国家 落地的一个代表性项目。 建立追溯系统，促进产业升级和出口增长 畜牧业是埃塞农业经济的重要组成部分，也是重要外汇来源之一，约占埃塞出口收入的20%。根据世界 银行的数据，截至2024年，埃塞拥有非洲最大的牲畜存栏量。尽管潜 ...

综合来说，根据生猪存栏量可以看出，2026年上半年供应充足，母猪在2025年10月出现明显下滑，根据 生长周期推算，预计2026年8月之后，供应减少，2026年下半年行情有所上涨。据钢联数据预测，2026 年全年均价在12.34元/公斤。 （来源：饲料行业信息网） 来源：饲料行业信息网 2025年我国畜牧业生产态势良好，猪肉产量创历史新高，达5938万吨;年末能繁母猪存栏降至3961万 头，为近六年低点。基于生猪生产周期判断，2026年上半年市场供应充足，预计下半年起供应趋紧，行 情或将回暖。 2025年，全国畜牧业生产形势较好，猪牛羊禽肉产量突破亿吨，为10072万吨，比上年增加409万吨，增 长4.2%。其中，猪肉产量5938万吨，增加232万吨，增长4.1%，产量创历史新高。中国猪肉产量在2014 年至2025年期间呈现一定的波动趋势，整体保持在年产4000万吨至近6000万吨的高位运行。2014年至 2016年期间，猪肉产量稳定在5300万至5700万吨之间，其中2014年达到阶段性高位5671万吨。2017年至 2018年，产量小幅波动但仍保持在5400万吨以上。然而进入2019年，产量明显下降至4 ...

在埃塞俄比亚农业部下属的动物产品和投入品质量检测中心，质量分析师法努埃尔正在进行样本检测。 本报记者 沈小晓摄 50岁的沙维基，与家人生活在埃塞俄比亚南奥莫地区的博里村。30多只羊、20多头牛、3头驴，是沙维 基一家七口的主要经济来源。"不瞒你说，对给它们佩戴耳标这件事，我起初是有些担心的，村里很多 人也和我一样。与专家们交流后，对耳标和可追溯系统有了更多了解，才放下心来。"沙维基说着，掏 出手机扫描了一只羊耳标上的二维码，屏幕上显示出这只羊的出生日期、疫苗记录等。他笑着说："牛 羊有了耳标、登记了编号，相当于有了'身份证'。" "在中国大力支持下，埃塞畜牧业的质量安全和出口能力得到显著提升。"埃塞农业部国务部长费克鲁· 雷格萨表示，畜牧业价值链能力建设项目推动了埃塞政策改革和技术提升，"为埃塞畜牧业产业升级和 出口增长提供了坚实保障"。 为埃塞畜牧业生产和出口建立信息追溯系统，是2021年中国、埃塞和联合国工业发展组织三方共同启动 的埃塞畜牧业价值链能力建设项目的一部分。该项目旨在通过支持制定政策框架、加强认证和检验体 系、改善贸易谈判以及促进技术知识交流，推动埃塞畜牧业的现代化。这也是全球发展倡议在非洲国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the recent provincial meeting in guiding the development direction of Boli County, focusing on the "eight key efforts" and the development paths of "agriculture-led, industry-strong, green-promoting, and characteristic-rich" [1] Group 2 - Boli County plans to showcase new initiatives and inject new momentum into the revitalization of Heilongjiang by constructing a modern industrial system, with a focus on major projects like the 8.045 billion yuan Jiulong pumped storage power station [2] - The county aims to stabilize grain production at over 1 billion jin while promoting the development of specialty products such as the Boli blue indigo fruit and black sweet grapes, enhancing the local agricultural economy [2] - Key reforms will be implemented to enhance county development vitality, including deepening state-owned enterprise reforms and completing the "management committee + company" reform [2] Group 3 - Environmental improvements will be prioritized, including the upgrade of sewage treatment plants and the restoration of historical mining sites, to ensure compliance with environmental standards [3] - The county will focus on enhancing urban functionality and quality of life through initiatives like the renovation of old neighborhoods and the establishment of community service centers [3] - Efforts will be made to improve public services and social governance, aiming to increase the sense of gain, happiness, and security among residents [3]

格隆汇1月20日丨德康农牧(02419.HK)公告，根据对集团截至2025年12月31日止年度的未经审核综合管 理账目及董事会现时所获资料的初步评估，集团预期截至2025年12月31日止年度将录得生物资产公允价 值调整前利润约人民币13亿元至人民币15亿元，而截至2024年12月31日止年度录得生物资产公允价值调 整前利润约人民币32.97亿元。 预期盈利同比下降，主要系公司核心业务生猪养殖板块面临全年商品猪销售均价同比大幅下行的行业共 性压力，并叠加黄羽肉鸡价格同比下跌带来的业绩承压，以及屠宰食品业务仍处于战略投入期。尽管公 司在生产运营效能提升、成本精细化管控等方面取得显着成效，且一定程度对冲了生猪、黄羽肉鸡市场 价格下跌带来的不利影响，但该类措施的正向效益未能完全抵消市场价格下滑的影响，进而导致公司整 体盈利水平同比下滑。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward price trends, particularly in beef and dairy, while grain prices are stabilizing at historical lows [1][3][5]. - The supply-demand dynamics for corn and soybeans remain loose, with global ending stocks projected to increase, while domestic prices are expected to find strong support at current low levels [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38% [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report indicates a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons for the 25/26 season [33][34]. - Short-term support for soybean prices is expected from import costs, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve as Brazilian soybeans come to market [35]. Wheat - The USDA report predicts a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio increasing by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with current prices at 2,515 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to rise by approximately 5.1% year-on-year [3][19]. - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3][19]. Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight reduction in U.S. milk ending stocks, with prices expected to remain favorable due to a contraction in domestic dairy cow capacity [3][24]. - The interplay between meat and dairy sectors is expected to drive a recovery in dairy prices [3][24]. Pork - The USDA projects a 2.69% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with prices expected to remain stable at high levels [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being managed to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - U.S. chicken production is expected to recover, with prices projected to perform well due to improved consumer demand [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is anticipated to be ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][8].