行业 沥青日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Core Insights - The consensus in the industry is that AI large models are set to reconstruct and upgrade various sectors, with significant advancements observed in 2023 [1] - Major cloud service providers in China, such as Tencent Cloud, Volcano Engine, and Baidu Smart Cloud, have reported the deployment of large models across multiple fields, particularly in consumer hardware integration [1][2] - The application of large models in industrial manufacturing is still emerging, with collaborations primarily focused on smart cockpit interactions and marketing strategy optimization, while core manufacturing processes remain underexplored [1] Application Areas - The most widespread applications of large models are in internal knowledge management and building AI knowledge bases, particularly in knowledge-intensive industries [2] - Companies like China Chemical Wuhuan are actively developing AI knowledge bases to consolidate the expertise of their highly educated engineers, enhancing operational efficiency [2] - In the industrial sector, low-risk scenarios such as marketing services and customer service are seeing faster adoption of large models due to their higher tolerance for errors [3] Challenges in Implementation - The integration of large models into core manufacturing processes faces significant challenges, particularly due to the low tolerance for errors in production control and safety operations [5][6] - Current AI applications in production processes are limited, with companies hesitant to rely on large language models for critical decision-making due to their black-box nature and low interpretability [5][6] - The return on investment (ROI) for AI quality inspection solutions has not significantly surpassed traditional methods, leading to cautious exploration of AI applications in manufacturing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report details the equity changes of Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., highlighting the increase in shareholding by Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Co., Ltd. and its concerted action person, Li Shuirong, through centralized bidding on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][2][12]. Group 1: Equity Change Details - As of the signing date of the report, the information disclosing obligor has increased its shareholding in Rongsheng Petrochemical by acquiring 19,707,213 shares, representing 0.19% of the total share capital [12][13]. - Prior to this change, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group held 5,413,792,472 shares (53.47% of total shares), and after the increase, it holds 5,433,499,968 shares (53.66%) [12][13]. - Li Shuirong's shareholding remained unchanged at 64,327,500 shares (6.35%) [12]. Group 2: Financial Information - The total funds used for this equity change amounted to 169.11 million yuan, sourced entirely from the legal self-owned and self-raised funds of Rongsheng Holding [13][14]. - A loan commitment of up to 1.8 billion yuan was provided by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for the purpose of this share acquisition [13]. Group 3: Future Plans - The information disclosing obligor plans to continue increasing its shareholding in the company within the next 12 months, depending on market conditions [12][15]. - There are no plans to change the main business of the company or make significant adjustments to its operations in the next 12 months [15][16]. Group 4: Corporate Governance - The report confirms that the equity change will not adversely affect the independence of the company, which maintains a structured governance and operational independence [17]. - There are no existing competitive situations between the information disclosing obligor and the company [17][18]. Group 5: Recent Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the total assets of Rongsheng Holding were approximately 42.05 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to the parent company at about 11.56 billion yuan [11][21]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately 32.90 billion yuan and a net profit of about 195.39 million yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《杠杆可以更积极点——流动性周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 固收周报 钢铁生产回落，原油价格大涨 ——高频数据跟踪 20250616 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产有所分化，钢铁产业链下行， 焦炉、高炉开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量减少；沥青、半钢胎、PTA 开 工率回升，PX、全钢胎下降。第二，房地产持续边际回落，商品房成 交面积、土地供应面积减少。第三，物价走势分化，原油受中东局势 影响大涨，铝价回升，焦煤、铜、螺纹钢下跌。第四，航运指数处于 近年来较高水平，SCFI 高位回落，CCFI 上涨，BDI 持续大幅上涨。短 期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢复情况及美国 关税政策变动影响。 生产：焦炉、高炉开工率下降，沥青、半钢胎、PTA 回升 6 月 13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, as well as specific stocks like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfuric acid and sulfur, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][8]. - The report notes that international oil prices have sharply risen due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, which may impact oil production and exports [6][21]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the tire industry, which is expected to perform better due to global strategies and tariff experiences [8]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of import substitution in the chemical sector, particularly for lubricating oil additives and special coatings [8]. - The report also highlights the self-sufficiency of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers in China, which are less affected by tariffs [8]. Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include sulfuric acid (up 7.24%) and sulfur (up 7.24%), while significant declines were seen in ammonium chloride (down 10.53%) and urea (down 9.95%) [20][22]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a weak overall performance, with some sectors like tires and lubricants showing better-than-expected results [22]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with expected EPS growth [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) has shown mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with a slight overall decline of 0.11% as of June 16, 2025, while specific companies like China Rare Earth (000831) and China Aluminum (601600) experienced gains [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) increased by 0.09%, with a latest price of 1.07 yuan and a turnover rate of 8.11%, amounting to 3.99 million yuan in trading volume [1] - The ETF's average daily trading volume over the past week was 6.88 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Xiangcai Securities suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to improved supply-demand dynamics, driven by expectations of supply contraction and relaxed export controls [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain quantity of rare earth-related export applications, indicating potential short-term benefits for companies in the magnetic materials sector [1] Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The latest size of the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF reached 49.28 million yuan, marking a one-month high [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 7 months, with an overall annualized return of 100% [2] - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 7.91%, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, the lowest among comparable funds [2] Group 4: Top Holdings - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index accounted for 51.1% of the index, with Longjiang Power (600900) being the largest at 10.48% [3][5]

| 『安期货 | | --- | | NGAN FUTURES | | 燃料油早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/16 | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/09 | 402.51 | 452.99 | -2.76 | 609.35 | -156.36 | 16.75 | 50.48 | | 2025/06/10 | 407.23 | 457.96 | -2.96 | 616.60 | -158.64 | 17.90 | 50.73 | | 2025/06/11 | 409.51 | 461.45 | -2 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/16 | | | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷 现货 | CP预测合 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/06/0 9 | 4570 | 4451 | 4600 | 596 | 553 | 75 | 577 | 4680 | 7700 | -341 | 435 | | 2025/06/1 0 | 4590 | 4491 | 4620 | 596 | 552 | 75 | 580 | 4810 | 7720 | -326 | 471 | | 2025/06/1 1 | 4630 | 4492 | 4620 | 593 | 5 ...

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