证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 01 铜业弹性表 | 添加标题 | | --- | 2025年5月20日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 数据预测偏差风险； 公司项目推进不及预期； 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 行业的投资评级 4 以报告日后的6个月内，行业指数相对于沪深300指数的涨跌幅为标准，定义如下： 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 点击此处添加标题添加标题点击此处添 我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资的相对比重。 标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加标 ...

证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 01 铜业弹性表 2025年5月20日 行业评级：看好 | 添加标题 | | --- | 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 数据预测偏差风险； 公司项目推进不及预期； 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 添加标题添加标题点击此处添加标题 添加标题 95% 1、看好 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现＋10%以上； 2、中性 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%～＋10%以上； 3、看淡 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%以下。 行业的投资评级 以报告日后的6个月内， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of a rush to export, but the traditional off - season for consumption is approaching. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,820, down 320 from the previous day; the trading volume was 82,415 lots, an increase of 10,104; the open interest was 171,235 lots, a decrease of 9,255; and the inventory was 61,913 tons, a decrease of 1,334 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,110, down 720; the Shanghai copper basis was 290, down 400; the spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed minor changes, with the spread between near - month and continuous - first contracts increasing by 10, and the spreads between continuous - first and continuous - second, continuous - second and continuous - third contracts decreasing [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,523.5, up 76; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 174,325; the COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.6635, down 0.02, and the total inventory weight was 170,380, an increase of 1,817 [2]. Industry News - **Mine Operations**: The Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has received environmental approval to extend its operation until 2028; the Antamina copper mine in Peru has started to resume production; some mines in Poland, Kazakhstan, and other places have suspended production due to various reasons [2][4]. - **Production and Expansion Projects**: Multiple copper mine and smelter projects have production, expansion, or suspension plans. For example, the ACS - Metalstopes metal mine's fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020; the second - phase project of some copper mines may increase production capacity in 2025 [4]. - **Trade and Policy**: The US budget resolution includes tax cuts and debt ceiling increases; the US economic data may lead to Fed rate cuts; trade disputes and export policies affect copper trade, such as the export approval and higher export tax for Indonesian copper concentrate [3][4]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The new orders and long - term order executions of refined copper rod enterprises have significantly decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased, with changes in raw material and finished product inventories [4]. - **Other Downstream Products**: The capacity utilization rates of various copper products such as copper wires and cables, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper clad wires, steel strips, copper foils, copper tubes, and brass rods may decline due to factors such as high copper prices, trade policies, and market demand [4].

2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 7 | | 锌：上方承压 | 9 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价再度大幅下挫，弱势运行或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，供需过剩 | 17 | | 多晶硅：基本面弱势，盘面存下行驱动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：成本或存下移，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：现货价格支撑，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper price is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. The high monthly spread of Shanghai copper remains, and the short - term accumulation of social inventory has little pressure on the market. However, the potential negative impact from the narrowing C - L spread in the overseas market is increasing, and the weaker - than - expected Chinese economy has also led to a bearish market sentiment [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai copper declined and closed with a doji star, the total open interest decreased, and the price spread structure of the market remained at 440. The spot premium slightly dropped to 440. Due to the weak exchange ratio, the premiums for bonded warehouse receipts and bills of lading of US dollars copper remained unchanged. The social inventory increased by 0.72 tons compared with last Thursday. The COMEX - LME spread narrowed to 690, and the transfer of copper inventory to COMEX is compressing the C - L spread, while the delivery pressure in the LME market is slowing down [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - Antofagasta's Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has obtained environmental approval to continue using the existing water source until 2028, allowing the company to advance research to extend the mine's lifespan to 2051. The project will maintain the current ore mining rate of 260,000 tons per day and copper production of 176,000 tons per year [10]. - According to a CITIC Securities research report, from 2024 to Q1 2025, the profitability of the metal industry increased steadily, with the gold, nickel - cobalt - tin - antimony, rare - earth magnetic materials, and copper sectors leading the industry. The valuation of the metal industry is currently at a relatively low level, and the valuation repair of the industry is worth looking forward to. The industry's dividend return continues to improve, and some stocks have a dividend yield of over 5%. In the second half of 2025, attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities in the gold, rare - earth, copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten sectors [10]. - Anhui Xinhuid copper Co., Ltd.'s annual 100,000 - ton copper products project's environmental assessment approval decision was publicly announced. The project is located in Chizhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Anhui Province, covering an area of about 140 mu. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of copper products [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic spot prices and transaction spreads have shown fluctuations, with significant changes in the market sentiment due to easing U.S. inflation and favorable tariff policies [1][2] - The overall market sentiment has improved, supported by a series of stimulus policies in China, including interest rate cuts and capital market reforms, leading to a marginal macroeconomic improvement [1] - Social inventory continues to decline, although the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating resilience in the market despite high copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges as rising copper prices have suppressed downstream orders, with customers primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders [1][2] - The current market is characterized by a tight supply situation, but the demand release has not been significant, resulting in a cautious purchasing stance from downstream buyers [2] - The expectation for next week’s price spread is between a premium of 200 to 300 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand weakness [1][2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - As of May 16, the total national electrolytic copper social inventory is 128,000 tons, showing an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week [3][5] - In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 13,600 tons, while in Shanghai, it increased by 6,700 tons to 98,200 tons [3][5] - Global inventory, including the Shanghai bonded zone, stands at 527,000 tons, which is an increase of 8,200 tons compared to the previous week [5]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Chongzuo's GDP reached 33.509 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, ranking second in the region [1] - The primary industry grew by 4.5%, the secondary industry by 7.7%, and the tertiary industry by 7.3%, indicating a balanced economic recovery [1] Project Development - Chongzuo held a major project commencement and completion ceremony in March, featuring 71 projects with a total investment of 16.4 billion yuan, including 44 new projects worth 14.4 billion yuan and 27 completed projects worth 2 billion yuan [2] Service and Support for Enterprises - The Chongzuo Work Team has been actively involved in supporting project construction, focusing on land use and other issues to facilitate the progress of key projects like the Longma Control Group's high-end equipment manufacturing base [3] - The team has also helped various enterprises, including Southern Manganese Group and China-ASEAN Nanning Airport Fusui Economic Zone, to resolve construction-related challenges, thereby improving the business environment [3] Addressing Business Challenges - The Chongzuo Work Team has addressed issues faced by local enterprises, such as the case of Guangxi Huatiangbao, which faced production challenges due to regulatory changes. The team facilitated the approval for cross-province production licenses [4] - By the end of April, the team had collected 110 feedback issues from enterprises, resolving 97 of them, achieving an 88.18% resolution rate [4] Technological Empowerment - Chongzuo is focusing on integrating technology into industry, with 46 smart manufacturing demonstration factories established in the first quarter and 26 enterprises recognized in national and regional smart manufacturing collections [6] - The Work Team has been instrumental in promoting technological innovation, including the establishment of key laboratories and partnerships to enhance the sugar industry through data-driven services [6]

证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-035 云南铜业股份有限公司 因有关事项尚存不确定性，为了维护投资者利益，避免 对公司证券交易造成重大影响，根据深圳证券交易所的相关 规定，经公司申请，公司证券（品种：A 股股票，简称：云 南铜业，代码：000878）自 2025 年 5 月 13 日开市时起开始 停牌。预计停牌时间不超过 10 个交易日，即不晚于 2025 年 项的停牌公告》（公告编号：2025-033）。 截至本公告披露之日，公司以及有关各方正在积极推进 本次交易的各项工作。为了维护投资者利益，避免对公司证 券交易造成重大影响，根据深圳证券交易所的相关规定，公 司股票将继续停牌。待相关工作完成后，公司将按照《公开 发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 26 号——上市 公司重大资产重组》的要求披露本次交易预案并申请公司股 票复牌。 鉴于本次交易的有关事项尚存不确定性，敬请广大投资 者关注公司后续公告并注意投资风险。 特此公告 云南铜业股份有限公司董事会 关于筹划发行股份购买资产并募集配套 资金事项的停牌进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没 ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry is actively advancing deep resource exploration at its copper mine, which is expected to increase copper concentrate production after completion [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, Northern Copper achieved a copper concentrate production of 43,600 tons and cathode copper production of 313,200 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 133.03% [4]. - The company reported a significant revenue increase, with total operating income reaching 24.107 billion yuan, up 156.60% from the adjusted 9.395 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders slightly decreased by 1.37% to 613 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Production and Operations - The company operates a copper mine with an annual processing capacity of 9 million tons and two smelting plants with a total copper concentrate processing capacity of 1.3 million tons [4]. - The increase in production for 2024 was primarily driven by the commissioning of a comprehensive recovery project at its subsidiary, which significantly boosted capacity [6]. - The company plans to maintain stable production levels in 2025, with expected outputs similar to 2024, unless new projects are initiated [9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The processing fee for copper concentrate has drastically decreased, impacting profitability, with fees dropping from around $60 per dry ton to below $10 [6]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile but high, with historical peaks observed in May 2024 [7][8]. - The company is engaging in hedging activities to mitigate price fluctuations, with a proposed cap of $600 million for financial derivatives [8]. Group 4: Future Plans - Northern Copper is focusing on deep resource exploration to enhance production, with a project expected to add approximately 15,000 tons of copper concentrate annually [9]. - The company is also exploring international opportunities for resource development and cooperation [9]. - Domestic demand for copper is anticipated to remain stable, driven by traditional industries and emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [10].