▍ Trump put：特朗普政府对即将实施的对等关税政策立场有所松动。 2月中旬，美国政府发布《对等贸易与关税备忘录》，宣布将对贸易伙伴实施对等关税。美国总 统特朗普随后宣布，自4月2日起将全面实施对等关税政策。然而，在美国对等关税全面加征日渐 迫近之时，特朗普于3月2 1日表示，虽不会为即将实施的关税政策设立豁免，但对等关税政策将 保留一定的"灵活性"。3月2 4日，特朗普进一步宣布，未来几天将对汽车、木材及芯片征收额外 关税，但其在全面对等关税征收的表述上有所缓和。特朗普表示，并非所有国家的关税都将在4 月2日施行，部分国家或将获得豁免，但仍将遵循对等原则。此前，欧盟对汽车进口征收1 0%的 关税，是美国乘用车进口税率2 . 5%的四倍。特朗普在宣布部分国家关税豁免时提及，欧盟已同意 将汽车关税降至2 . 5%。在临近对等关税政策实施之际，特朗普政府的关税政策立场较此前已出现 一定程度的松动，但仍需关注四月初美国政府贸易备忘录调查结果以及后续对等关税的实际执行 情况。此外，近期投资者也担忧联邦裁员/削减支出会对美国就业和消费造成较大的负面冲击。但 我们不排除经济走弱的迹象下，未来美国财政政策会出现一定的 ...

Group 1 - Central enterprises are actively embracing artificial intelligence (AI) through the "AI+" initiative, achieving positive results in key areas such as application, computing power, data, and models [1] - Over 500 scenarios in key industries like industrial manufacturing, energy, and intelligent connected vehicles have been established for AI applications by central enterprises [1] - China Unicom has developed the "Yuanjing" model family, which includes multimodal models for language, speech, vision, and multimodal processing, and has released the first "adaptive slow thinking" general thinking chain model to enhance model efficiency [1] Group 2 - The State Grid has launched the "Guangming" multimodal industry model, which provides specialized intelligent services across the entire power industry chain [2] - China National Petroleum Corporation has introduced the "Kunlun" model for energy and chemical applications, focusing on oil and gas exploration and equipment engineering design [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) plans to deepen the "AI+" initiative by emphasizing application leadership, data empowerment, and foundational intelligent computing, while encouraging central enterprises to increase investment in AI [2]

Core Insights - Consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth in China, with final consumption being a lasting driver of economic growth [1] - Among the 27 "trillion GDP cities" in China, only seven cities have a retail sales total exceeding one trillion yuan, indicating that "trillion consumption cities" may hold greater value [1] Group 1: Suzhou's Economic Performance - In 2024, Suzhou achieved a retail sales total of 1004.37 billion yuan, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous year, making it the seventh city in China to reach this milestone [3] - Suzhou's consumption vitality stems from the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries, with 417,500 new urban jobs created in 2024, the highest in Jiangsu province [4] - The city's industrial output value reached 4.7 trillion yuan in 2024, a 4.7% increase, ranking second among industrial cities in China [4] - The per capita disposable income in Suzhou was 77,524 yuan in 2024, 1.88 times the national average and 1.4 times that of Jiangsu province [4] - Suzhou hosted 65 concerts with over 5,000 attendees and 90 concerts with over 1,000 attendees in 2024, generating over 800 million yuan in ticket sales [4][5] Group 2: Future Plans and Strategies - The 2025 government work report for Suzhou emphasizes expanding effective demand and optimizing subsidy methods to stimulate consumption [5] - Suzhou is exploring innovative policies to ensure that benefits reach the consumer end, enhancing market vitality [5] Group 3: Other Cities' Aspirations - Nanjing, Wuhan, and Hangzhou are also aiming for "trillion consumption city" status, with Nanjing targeting a retail sales total of over 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [6][7] - Hangzhou aims to exceed 900 billion yuan in retail sales by 2027, with a growth rate aligned with GDP [7] - In 2024, Hangzhou's per capita disposable income was 76,777 yuan, slightly higher than Nanjing's 75,180 yuan [8] Group 4: Shanghai's Consumption Leadership - Shanghai achieved a retail sales total of 1,794.02 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top consumer city in China for seven consecutive years [9] - The city attracted 3,500 brands for launch events in 2024, with 1,269 new stores opened, including 14 global and Asian flagship stores [9] - Shanghai's "first launch economy" policy has been in place since 2018, with new measures introduced to facilitate the import of new consumer goods [9][10] - The city has also implemented significant consumer subsidies, exceeding 4 billion yuan, to support the replacement of old consumer goods [10]

以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ，作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里，追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员 罗志恒 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，1- 2月 经济数据"开门红"，工业和服务业、消费和投资同比增速均高于去年全年 增速。一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右，为实现全年" 5%左右"的增速目标 奠定良好基础。 经济数据"开门红"的三大动能 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，生产供给稳定增长、消费投资稳中有 升，为一季度经济开局奠定良好基础。1-2月经济数据"开门红"，一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右。生产 方面，1-2月规模以上工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比分别增长5.9%和5.6%，较去年全年分别加快0.1 和0.4个百分点；需求方面，社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资完成额同比分别增长4%和4.1%，较去 年全年分别加快0.5和0.9个百分点。 值得注意的是，今年1-2月经济数据受到两大不利因素拖累，在这样的背景下，当前成绩更显不易。一 是工作日减少带来的不可比因素，受闰年和平年、元旦和春 ...

如何看待 1-2 月经济数据？ 事件：2025 年 1-2 月工业增加值同比 5.9%（前值 6.2%），社零同比 4.0%（前值 3.7%）；1-2 月固投同比 4.1%（前值 3.2%），地产投资同 比-9.8%（前值-10.6%），广义基建投资同比 10.0%（前值 9.2%），制 造业投资同比 9.0%（前值 9.2%）。 核心观点：1-2 月经济开局平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，最大亮点可谓 地产销售跌幅明显收窄、属于"小阳春"。往后看，经济走势的不确定 性较大，一是地产销售的持续性有待进一步观察；二是两会政策将逐 步落地，有望对经济基本面构成有利支撑；三是特朗普关税的扰动大， 对我国出口的冲击可能进一步显现。 宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 03 17 年 月 日 1、整体看，1-2 月经济基本平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，结构上延续 "供给偏强、需求偏弱"，其中：偏强的是，1-2 月工业生产、基建投 资、制造业投资增速维持高位，消费、地产投资环比改善，地产销售跌 幅明显收窄则可谓最大的亮点；偏弱的是，1-2 月 CPI、PPI 整体延续 低位，进口增速大幅走低， ...

Global Macro Market - The market continues to speculate on the "East Rising, West Declining" narrative; US stock valuations are high, and the uncertainty brought by Trump's policies is expected to prevent US stocks from reaching new highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Although the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not yet reversed, the Chinese stock market is experiencing bullish momentum due to a series of policy enhancements and sustained expectation guidance, with Hong Kong stocks leading [1] - The foreign exchange market's volatility continues to reflect the pricing adjustments due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on country-specific interest rate differentials and marginal developments in relative liquidity [1] Chinese Futures Market - In financial products, multiple stock indices and short positions on government bonds show high macro certainty, with strong market price behavior alignment; currently, small-cap indices remain relatively strong, while large-cap indices have recently shown strong upward breakout signs, indicating a potential style switch [2] - In terms of commodities, particularly industrial products, excluding those affected by supply chain disruptions, the demand side continues to price according to macroeconomic fundamentals, reflected in the market where industrial categories (energy, chemicals, ferrous metals, etc.) show significant overall weakness [2]

更令人担忧的是，标普500指数与美国国债的比率也逼近关键的200日均线支撑位，这一趋势线自2020年12月以来一直坚守。 Hartnett在最新的报告中直言，现在是"Showtime"时刻。 他原本预测，强劲的2月非农就业数据（超过20万）将支撑美股，而疲软的数据（低于12.5万）则利 好债券、利空股市。然而，2月份的就业数据却落在了15.1万的尴尬区间，这或许解释了股市随后的震荡走势。 美国离衰退仅"一步之遥"？ 有"华尔街最准分析师"之称的美银首席策略师Michael Hartnett在报告中警告称，美国经济正站在悬崖边缘，而一份糟糕的就业报告就可能将其推入衰退的深 渊。 自2024年末以来，Hartnett就一直力劝投资者撤离美股，转投他所谓的"BIG"组合——债券（Bonds）、国际股票（International stocks）和黄金（Gold）。事 实证明，听从他建议的人，或许已经避开了美国科技股的"血雨腥风"。 周五非农"不上不下" 近期美股的颓势不容忽视，标普500指数近期一度跌破200日均线，这是自2023年10月以来的首次。 欧洲"自强"梦醒？军费开支恐引爆债务危机 在Hartnett看来 ...

证券代码：601068 证券简称：中铝国际 公告编号：临 2025-002 中铝国际工程股份有限公司 2024 年第四季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 2024 年，中铝国际工程股份有限公司（以下简称公司）新签合 同总额为人民币 308.26 亿元，具体情况如下： | 合同类型 | 2024 年 10 | 月-12 月 | | 2024 年累计 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 去年同期 | 同比增减 | | | (个) | (亿元) | (个) | (亿元) | (亿元) | (%) | | 一、分行业 | | | | | | | | 1.工业 | 1,374 | 128.50 | 4,197 | 282.76 | 198.21 | 42.66 | | 2.非工业 | 396 | 3.40 | 1,643 | 25.50 | 199.91 | -87.24 | | 合计 | ...