从高频数据来看，2026 年春节位于 2 月中旬，1 月是春节前的最 后一个完整生产月，为了保持供应平稳，1 月生产或小幅回升，外需 或存在提前发货，1 月出口亦有望保持韧性，关注中国与欧盟、一带 一路沿线国家合作加深。生意社 BPI 代表的广谱价格指数环比延续上 行，除了全球定价商品之外，亦包括国内定价的煤炭、螺纹、化工品 等，年后 3 月开工季的价格趋势值得期待。值得注意的是，12 月 PMI 建筑业景气度较为明显改善，但 1 月高频数据显示，建筑业实物工作 量并未显著启动，100 大中城市拿地意愿相对较弱，30 大中城市商品 房销售景气度较低，或掣肘投资，需要密切跟踪节后复工复产情况， 这或对投资止跌回稳产生显著影响。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-01-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外需增长斜率分化，关注出口和 科技共振方向》 - 2026.1.22 宏观研 ...

白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业主 导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接近3 亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工业 用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可替代 的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价变 化反应迟钝。矿产银产量已连续第五年下降，短期内难以放量。 与此同时，全球显性库存持续消耗，伦敦及上海交易所的库存均处于多年低位，仅能覆盖约1.2个月的 消费量，远低于安全水平。实物紧张甚至导致伦敦白银租赁利率飙升至2.5%，反映出市场现货的 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.09%, gaining 24 points to close at 26,773 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.31%. The morning trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 151.1 billion [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (01164) saw a rise of over 9% as the natural uranium trust SPUT plans to increase procurement, indicating sustained growth in secondary demand [1] - Jiexin International Resources (03858) increased by over 6%, with tungsten concentrate prices approaching 550,000, and the company holds world-class tungsten resources [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 7%, reaching a historical high as the company accelerates the production and value realization of the Mt Bundy gold mine project [1] - Nickel stocks led the gains, with reduced production quotas for Indonesian nickel mines, and institutions expect nickel prices to continue rising. Xinjiang Xin Mining (03833) rose by 6%, Zhongwei New Materials (02579) increased by 4.6%, and Likun Resources (02245) gained 5% [1] - Laopu Gold (06181) rose over 7%, with high demand for SKP activities, and high-end traditional Chinese gold continues to break new ground [1] - Ark Health (06086) surged over 41%, expecting to achieve a net profit of up to 10 million by 2025, officially reaching full profitability [1] - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) rose over 9%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5 times since the acquisition, and the company claims to have restored public shareholding [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) increased by over 14%, driven by AI, enhancing the prosperity of the optical fiber and cable industry [1] - New World Development (00016) rose by 4.8%, with institutions expecting new land reserves to enhance company profits, and Hong Kong property prices may enter an upward cycle [1] - Nanhua Futures (02691) surged over 14%, recently entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, with plans to expand overseas business [1] - Modern Dental Group (03600) rose over 16%, with Hillhouse Capital acquiring a portion of the shares, increasing its stake to 17.24% [1] Group 2 - Weichai Power (02338) rose over 4%, with Citigroup indicating that the company may allocate more resources to the energy supply sector in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Biou Group (9893.HK) surged nearly 24% during trading, reaching a new high of 1.35 HKD, with a market capitalization of 4.8 billion HKD, driven by rising prices of precious metals like gold and silver [1] Company Summary - Biou Group's core asset, Anhui Jinding Mine, is becoming a significant support for the company's performance due to its mature gold extraction technology and stable production capacity [1] - In the full year of 2025, Anhui Jinding produced approximately 850 kilograms of gold-bearing mud with a gold content of about 20%, translating to an estimated pure gold output of around 170 kilograms [1] - The copper-gold co-mining resources are also impressive, with 77.9 million tons of copper-gold ore mined in 2024, an average gold grade of 0.66 g/t, and the processing of copper-gold concentrate yielding 19,100 tons with a significantly improved average gold grade of 16.75 g/t, laying a solid foundation for the continuous release of gold production capacity [1] Industry Summary - Analysts suggest that with the continuous rise in prices of gold and copper, along with increasing attention on the sector, Biou Group, which possesses a unique business model and a clear growth path, is likely to undergo a value reassessment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Dividend Index, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Western Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [1] - The SOE Dividend ETF (159515) has shown a 0.78% increase, with a weekly cumulative rise of 1.41% as of January 23, 2026 [1] - The liquidity of the SOE Dividend ETF is noted, with an intraday turnover of 3.65% and a transaction volume of 1.87 million yuan, alongside a monthly average transaction volume of 2.98 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the copper supply and demand remain tight, with processing fees hitting a historical low of -50 USD/ton, indicating high procurement tension for copper concentrate [2] - The expected fixed asset investment by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% year-on-year increase, which will significantly boost copper demand for power system construction [2] - Guojin Securities reports that the cargo throughput at Tangshan Port is expected to reach 242 million tons in 2025, a 4.1% year-on-year increase, emphasizing the pivotal role of state-owned ports in the energy resource supply system [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the SOE Dividend Index as of December 31, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Shanxi Coal International, and others, collectively accounting for 15.63% of the index [3] - The SOE Dividend ETF closely tracks the SOE Dividend Index, selecting 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend rates, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2][3]

中国中铁（00390）盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.43%，现报4.24港元，成交额2.10亿港元。 公开资料显示，中国中铁目前在运营5座矿山，铜/钴/钼储量处于行业领先地位。2024年子公司中铁资 源归母净利润30亿元，占公司整体的11%。 国盛证券此前指，如将矿产资源申请为拟培育主业，后续有望收购新矿山加速发展。预计2025年资源板 块归母净利润33亿元。申万宏源认为，资源板块持续发力，增强盈利弹性与抗周期性。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中国中铁（00390）盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.43%，现报4.24港元，成交额2.10亿港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 公开资料显示，中国中铁目前在运营5座矿山，铜/钴/钼储量处于行业领先地位。2024年子公司中铁资 源归母净利润30亿元，占公司整体的11%。 国盛证券此前指，如将矿产资源申请为拟培育主业，后续有望收购新矿山加速发展。预计2025年资源板 块归母净利润33亿元。申万宏源认为，资源板块持续发力，增强盈利弹性与抗周期性。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 119 points or 0.45%, closing at 26,749 points, after reaching a high of 26,895 points during the day[1] - The National Index increased by 46 points or 0.5%, closing at 9,160 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 35 points or 0.6%, ending at 5,798 points[1] - Total market turnover for the day was 240.872 billion HKD[1] Currency and Economic Indicators - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate was adjusted up by 90 points to 6.9929 against the US dollar, marking a two-and-a-half-year high[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation with a steady interest rate of 1.4%[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 13 points or 0.3%, at 4,136 points, with a trading volume of 1.34 trillion CNY[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 112 points or 0.8%, closing at 14,439 points, with a turnover of 1.75 trillion CNY[2] Corporate Earnings and Projections - Guotai Junan International expects a net profit of 1.28 to 1.38 billion CNY for the last fiscal year, a significant increase of 265% to 293% compared to approximately 351 million CNY in 2024[4] - China Merchants Bank reported a slight increase in operating income to 337.532 billion CNY, up 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 150.181 billion CNY, up 1.21%[5] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the second phase of its Julong Copper Mine, increasing production capacity to 350,000 tons per day[4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market saw a further decrease in trading volume, with total turnover dropping to 82.799 billion [1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 484 million, with Shanghai and Shenzhen contributing 283 million and 201 million respectively [1] US Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.58%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.03% and 0.28% respectively [2] - Notable declines were seen in Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, both dropping over 3%, while Intel fell 17% due to a larger-than-expected Q4 loss and disappointing revenue guidance [2] - The overall market sentiment was affected by geopolitical tensions and cautious institutional outlooks on short-term performance [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a positive start for both Hong Kong and A-shares in 2026, with a cumulative net inflow of 43.5 billion HKD from southbound funds [3] - Key investment themes include "technological self-reliance" and AI applications, with leading companies in these sectors expected to benefit from long-term growth opportunities [3] - Recommendations for investment focus on sectors supported by policies for expanding domestic consumption, including sports apparel and non-essential services [3] - The report highlights the continued attractiveness of undervalued central state-owned enterprises with high dividends, as well as upstream non-ferrous metals benefiting from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3] Company Highlights - Tencent announced a cash distribution of 1 billion for the Spring Festival, launching new features in its app to enhance user engagement [9][12] - Baidu is also participating in the Spring Festival cash distribution, offering 500 million in cash rewards through its app [9][12] - The report notes significant performance in the copper mining sector, with companies like China Nonferrous Metal Mining expected to benefit from rising copper prices [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Group (601390) shares rose over 5%, currently up 5.17% at HKD 4.27, with a trading volume of HKD 175 million [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Railway Group operates five mines, holding leading positions in copper, cobalt, and molybdenum reserves [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company from its subsidiary, China Railway Resources, is projected to be RMB 3 billion in 2024, accounting for 11% of the company's overall profit [1] - The resource segment is expected to generate a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion in 2025, indicating growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities suggests that if mineral resources are developed as a core business, the company may pursue acquisitions of new mines to accelerate growth [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the resource segment's ongoing development will enhance profitability and provide resilience against market cycles [1]

公开资料显示，中国中铁目前在运营5座矿山，铜/钴/钼储量处于行业领先地位。2024年子公司中铁资 源归母净利润30亿元，占公司整体的11%。国盛证券此前指，如将矿产资源申请为拟培育主业，后续有 望收购新矿山加速发展。预计2025年资源板块归母净利润33亿元。申万宏源认为，资源板块持续发力， 增强盈利弹性与抗周期性。 智通财经APP获悉，中国中铁(00390)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.17%，报4.27港元，成交额1.75亿港元。 ...