研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - New season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, putting pressure on the market. The 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to face import pressure in the third quarter due to the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR505 closed at 6073 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.85%, with a position of 13,644 contracts, a decrease of 2,518 contracts. SR509 closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 305,344 contracts, a decrease of 858 contracts. US sugar 05 closed at 17.38 cents/pound, down 0.24 cents or 1.36%, with a position of 30,343 contracts, a decrease of 14,074 contracts. US sugar 07 closed at 17.24 cents/pound, down 0.30 cents or 1.71%, with a position of 348,504 contracts, an increase of 2,994 contracts [7]. Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday, with the main July contract down 1.71% to 17.24 cents/pound. London ICE white sugar futures were closed for the UK public holiday. During the May Day holiday, foreign raw sugar maintained a weakening trend. The new season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, and the 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract showed a weak shock. The 09 contract closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a reduction of 858 contracts. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. After the rainfall in Guangxi, the market lost the impetus for speculation. The weak foreign raw sugar also dragged down Zhengzhou sugar, and the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China opened, so the import pressure in the third quarter is expected to be large. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 5: Industry News - As of April 30, India had produced 25.69 million tons of sugar, and about 19 sugar mills were still in operation. About 10 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh were still operating, and 8 of them were in western Uttar Pradesh. These sugar mills are expected to continue operating for 7 - 10 days. The increase in sugarcane production has improved the sugarcane supply in Uttar Pradesh, allowing some sugar mills to continue operating. In addition, the increase in sugar recovery rate in the second half of the season has also increased sugar production [9]. - From the Brazilian foreign trade secretariat's export data on April 28, Brazil exported 1,281,866.53 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of April, with an average daily export volume of 75,403.91 tons, a 12% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 85,875.17 tons in the whole of April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 1,889,253.72 tons [9]. - Ukraine will reduce its sugar beet planting area by 17% this year, resulting in a significant decline in sugar production and a sharp drop in exports, especially to the EU. It is expected that Ukraine's sugar production will drop to 1.5 million tons this year, down from 1.8 million tons last year, and the export volume will be reduced to 180,511 tons, compared with 746,000 tons in 2024 [9]. - According to a survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil in the first half of April is expected to be 694,000 tons, a 3.8% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach 671 million tons, of which 618 million tons will come from the central - southern region accounting for 91% of the country's production, and 53 million tons will come from the northeast and north regions. Brazil will continue to be the world's largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the next season [9][10]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][20].

Core Insights - The USDA forecasts that rainfall will contribute to a 26% increase in India's sugar production for the 2025-26 planting season [1] Group 1 - The anticipated increase in sugar production is significant, indicating a positive outlook for the Indian sugar industry [1]

Core Insights - The USDA forecasts that rainfall will contribute to a 26% increase in India's sugar production for the 2025-26 planting season [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in sugar production is significant, indicating a potential boost in supply [1] - This growth in production may impact global sugar prices and trade dynamics [1] - The forecast highlights the importance of weather conditions in agricultural output [1]

此外，郑州商品交易所专家孙元瑞对我国商品期权市场的创新成果进行深度解析，重点阐述了国内首个 商品短期期权产品——白糖系列期权的创新规则体系。该期权产品以"低成本、短周期、高弹性" 为核 心优势，通过灵活的合约设计与交易机制，构建起精准化、定制化的短期风险管理框架，为农业生产者 和中小微企业量身打造了高效的风险对冲工具，其创新性的产品特性与显著的服务实体经济效能，在现 场引发热烈反响与广泛讨论。 会议现场，行业精英们带来了精彩纷呈的分享。中信期货研究所农业组负责人李青凭借深厚的专业功 底，对国内外宏观经济形势以及白糖产业供需格局展开了深入剖析。她表示，当下市场环境复杂多变， 白糖产业正面临着较为显著的价格波动风险。在乡村振兴战略的大背景下，实现白糖产业的稳定生产与 供应，已然成为一项极为紧迫的任务。李青研究员的深度分析，为与会者清晰呈现出当前白糖产业的发 展现状与潜在风险。 云南农垦糖业集团总经理助理刘明才在《衍生工具助力云南白糖产业高质量发展案例分享及市场展望》 中，结合企业实践分享宝贵经验。作为集种植、加工、销售于一体的全产业链企业，云南农垦糖业通过 深化垦地合作机制，持续完善蔗糖产业链条。面对白糖市场价格 ...

印度2024-25年糖出口量预计为80万吨。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，印度2024-25年糖出口量预计为80万吨。 ...

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 0.68%, currently reported at 17.74 cents [1] - White sugar futures decreased by 0.4%, hitting a daily low of $494.50 [1] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins announced that a decision will be made regarding the sugar tariff rates [1]

美国农业部长罗林斯：糖关税税率有待确定。 ...

Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices declined, with the main September contract closing at 5936 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos data, Nigeria's raw sugar imports for the 2025-26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 12% compared to the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year will reach 45.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2] - As of April 30, over 30 sugar enterprises in Yunnan have commenced sugarcane processing, exceeding half of the total number of sugar factories that opened this season, indicating that the province has entered the processing phase [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that while Brazil experienced less rainfall in the first quarter, the high sugar-alcohol price ratio is expected to maintain a high sugar production ratio, leading to uncertainty in production levels. The focus is shifting towards consumption and imports, with good domestic sugar sales and a significant reduction in imported sugar supply, creating bullish factors on both supply and demand sides. However, the trend for US sugar remains downward, and domestic supply is ample, leading to expectations of price fluctuations with a cautious trading approach [3] - Guoxin Futures reported a decline in raw sugar futures, with market attention on the May raw sugar contract expiration. The May contract fell by 0.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.2%. Weak demand in the spot market may lead to a large delivery of the May contract, potentially reaching about 2 million tons. CONAB indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach record highs due to favorable market conditions, despite a year-on-year decline in sugarcane production. Short-term focus is on weather conditions in major production areas, with heavy rains in Guangxi alleviating drought conditions but raising concerns about potential flooding. A short-term trading strategy is recommended [3]