Core Viewpoint - Liu Guo Chemical plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement to invest in a 280,000 tons/year battery-grade refined phosphoric acid project, with a total investment of 1.194 billion yuan and a payback period of 6.55 years [1][9]. Company Overview - Liu Guo Chemical primarily engages in the production and sales of phosphate fertilizers and fine chemical products, being one of the largest integrated manufacturers in East China [5]. - The company has production capacities of 450,000 tons/year for monoammonium phosphate, 640,000 tons/year for diammonium phosphate, 300,000 tons/year for urea, and 1,550,000 tons/year for compound fertilizers [5]. Industry Context - Since 2014, China's phosphate fertilizer usage has declined from 8.4534 million tons to 5.3630 million tons in 2023, reaching a recent low due to government policies promoting modern agriculture and controlling traditional fertilizer usage [5]. - Phosphate and compound fertilizers are the main revenue sources for the company, generating sales revenues of 2.680 billion yuan and 2.183 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 42.88% and 34.93% of total revenue as of December 31, 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue has continuously declined from 7.549 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.251 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also decreased significantly from 237 million yuan in 2021 to 2.3 million yuan in 2023, with a slight recovery to 2.5 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The gross profit margin fell from 14.85% in 2021 to 8.05% in 2023, with a minor recovery to 9.36% in 2024 [6]. Strategic Shift - In response to ongoing pressures in the traditional fertilizer business, the company is transitioning towards high-value sectors, specifically producing and selling battery-grade refined phosphoric acid [8]. - The planned fundraising will significantly enhance the company's refined phosphoric acid production capacity, aligning with the growing demand from the rapidly developing electric vehicle and energy storage industries [9]. Market Dynamics - The refined phosphoric acid is a core raw material for lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are experiencing high growth in demand [9]. - However, the industry faces challenges with an oversupply of lithium iron phosphate battery capacity, leading to project terminations by other companies in the sector [10].

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]

| 科 | | | | | | | 公司 | 公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 间 | 室 | 100% | 公司 | 司 | | | 公司 | 司 | | 55% | 51% | 科 | | | 室 | | | | | | | 股票代码：600470 公告编号：2025-035 股票简称：六国化工 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 安徽六国化工股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 关于组织机构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The industrial and agricultural demand is tepid, and the enterprise inventory continues to increase. Some factory inventories are reserved for export as export factory inspections are carried out. The operating rates of coal - based and natural - gas - based urea production have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in a loose market supply. The costs are stable as coal and natural gas prices change little. The urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to rise, leading to a month - on - month increase in port inventory. The downstream agricultural demand is growing steadily, with wheat fertilization demand ending in some areas and rice fertilization demand in the southern regions set to increase. The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,790 yuan/ton (-24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+20). The Shandong basis was 90 yuan/ton (+44), the Henan basis was 70 yuan/ton (+34), and the Jiangsu basis was 110 yuan/ton (+44) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of May 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 980,600 tons (+63,200), and the port sample inventory was 203,000 tons (+40,000) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 507 yuan/ton (+5). The upstream coal - based and natural - gas - based urea operating rates have increased, with high - level production and continuous release of new production capacity [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The urea export legal inspection information is clear, the urea export window has opened, and the future export demand is expected to increase, with the port inventory rising month - on - month [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of May 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (-2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (-8.33%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 5.88 days (-0.06). The downstream industrial demand shows a significant decline in compound fertilizer production [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 980,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. The port inventory has increased month - on - month due to the expected increase in export demand [1][2]

Meeting Details - The 21st meeting of the 8th Supervisory Board of Shenzhen Batian Ecological Engineering Co., Ltd. was held on May 28, 2025, both in person and via communication methods [1][2] - All three supervisors attended the meeting, and the procedures complied with relevant laws and regulations [1] Resolutions Passed - The Supervisory Board approved the proposal to grant stock options and restricted stocks under the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan [2] - The plan includes granting 20 million stock options to 166 eligible incentive objects at an exercise price of 10.63 yuan per option, and granting 3 million restricted stocks to 9 eligible incentive objects at a grant price of 5.32 yuan per share [2]

公司监事会根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）《中华 人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以 下简称"《管理办法》"）等有关法律、法规和规范性文件以及《深圳市芭田生态工 程股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）的规定，对获授股票期权/限制 性股票的激励对象名单进行审核，发表核查意见如下： 公司本次股票期权/限制性股票授予激励对象人员名单与公司 2025 年第一次临时 股东大会批准的 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划中规定的激励对象相符，具备 《公司法》《证券法》等法律、法规和规范性文件以及《公司章程》规定的任职资格， 符合《管理办法》规定的激励对象条件，符合《深圳市芭田生态工程股份有限公司 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划（草案）》及其摘要规定的激励对象范围，其作为 公司 2025 年股票期权与限制性股票激励计划激励对象的主体资格合法、有效。公司和 本激励计划授予的激励对象均未出现《管理办法》及本激励计划规定的不能授予或不 得成为激励对象的情形，本激励计划的激励对象获授股票期权/限制性股票的条件已成 就。 综上，监事会同意本次股票 ...

Sales Performance - The sales volume of compound fertilizers reached 4.1797 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.59% [1] - The company is experiencing a continuous growth trend in sales during the spring fertilization season of Q1 2025 [1] Market Outlook - The market for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) is broad due to its applications in agriculture, fire safety, and new energy sectors [2] - The demand for industrial-grade MAP is increasing, supported by national policies and rising needs for new energy materials [2] Phosphate Mining Progress - The company’s phosphate mining project in Leibo County, Sichuan, commenced construction in March 2025, with a planned capacity of 2.9 million tons per year [3] - The mining development is influenced by geographical and geological conditions, and the company is working to accelerate project completion [3] Nitrogen Fertilizer Raw Material Layout - The company is enhancing its nitrogen fertilizer supply chain by establishing ammonia projects in Hubei and Guangxi [4] - The Hubei base has a 700,000-ton ammonia project that is progressing as planned, while the Guangxi base aims to fill the production gap in southern China [4] Future Growth Drivers - The core growth drivers stem from the company's "industry chain + resources" strategic layout, which enhances internal growth potential [4] - The integration of nitrogen and phosphate supply chains will significantly improve raw material self-sufficiency and cost advantages, boosting market competitiveness [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the futures price of urea will oscillate in the range of 1780 - 1860 yuan/ton. Although it is the agricultural demand peak season from May to June and the urea export policy has been implemented, the export volume is lower than market expectations, and relevant institutions are calling for stable prices. Yesterday, the low - price transactions in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan improved successively, and it is expected that the spot price will be slightly adjusted today [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 3 yuan to 1814 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1850 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1047 lots to 173,300 lots, and short positions increased by 449 lots to 164,100 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry was 204,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 31,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 88.96%, an 8.89% increase compared with 80.07% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons from last week, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. The urea port inventory was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57%, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine was 66.4%, an 8.3% month - on - month decrease [1] - Export Policy: The relevant association will organize self - regulated urea exports on a fertilizer - year basis. The self - regulated export volume for this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time periods will be adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [1] - Coal Price: On May 26, the global steam coal price dropped to a four - and - a - half - year low, only a quarter of the peak level during the 2022 global energy crisis, mainly due to continuous production growth and a surge in inventory [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]