Core Points - The establishment of the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund aims to attract global investment into Ukraine, as per the agreement between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump [1][3] Group 1: Agreement Details - Ownership and control of all resources remain with Ukraine, with the government having the authority to decide on resource extraction locations [3] - The fund will be managed equally by Ukraine and the U.S., with a 50:50 ownership structure, ensuring no dominant voting rights for either party [3] - The agreement does not involve privatization or changes in the management of state-owned enterprises, which will remain under Ukrainian ownership [3] - There are no debt obligations for Ukraine towards the U.S. under this agreement, focusing instead on cooperative investment to enhance economic potential [3] - The agreement aligns with Ukraine's constitutional and European integration processes, signaling reliability for long-term cooperation with global partners [3] - The fund will be financed entirely by new license revenues, specifically from key materials and oil and gas projects, excluding ongoing project revenues [3][4] - Legislative changes required for the fund's operation are minimal, needing only adjustments to the budget law and approval from the Ukrainian parliament [3] - The U.S. government will support the fund through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), facilitating investment and technology transfer from the U.S., EU, and other supportive nations [3] Group 2: Mineral Resources and Market Potential - Ukraine possesses 22 out of 50 key strategic materials recognized by the U.S. and 25 out of 34 recognized by the EU, including graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium, and uranium [6] - Ukraine's graphite reserves rank among the top five globally, with approximately 19 million tons of ore and six known graphite mines [7] - Current graphite projects in Ukraine include the Balakhivske project with 44 million tons of reserves and the Zavallivskiy project with an annual capacity of 7,000 tons [7] - The known lithium and graphite reserves in Ukraine are sufficient to produce battery materials for approximately 20 million electric vehicles [7] - Graphite is primarily used in refractory materials, renewable energy, and military applications, but Ukraine lacks downstream processing capabilities for graphite sales [8] - New graphite mining projects require 3 to 5 years from development to production, indicating no immediate market impact [9]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 3 日 [Table_Title] 第一量子 2025Q1 铜产量同比减少 0.90%至 9.97 万 吨，正在等待官方通知允许其出口储存在 Punta Rincón 的铜精矿 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 公司 2025Q1 铜产量为 9.97 万吨，同比减少 0.90%，环比减少 10.66%。环比下降主要原因是 Sentinel 铜矿产量下降， Kansanshi 铜矿和 Sentinel 铜矿受到赞比亚季节性降雨的影响， 但排水和泵送解决方案均能有效应对。 公司 2025Q1 铜销量为 10.20 万吨，同比增长 0.18%，环比减少 8.65%。 2025Q1 铜 C1 现金成本为 1.95 美元/磅，同比减少 3.47%，环 比增长 16.07%。环比增长反映了铜产量下降以及赞比亚员工 和维护成本的上升，但强劲的黄金副产品收益部分抵消了这些 影响。 2025Q1 铜总维持成本（AISC）为 2.90 美元/磅，同比增长 1.75% ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a significant rebound amid easing trade war tensions, but Goldman Sachs warns of substantial uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, driven by rising policy uncertainty and declining business confidence [2][3]. - Key indicators show that the proportion of respondents expecting economic activity to decline is nearing historical highs, alongside potential slowdowns in real income growth and ongoing financial tensions [3]. Market Predictions - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4,600 points, representing a 17.9% decline from recent closing prices, while high-yield credit spreads may widen to 788 basis points [3]. - Traditional hedging tools like long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may fail to effectively mitigate stock market risks [4]. Investment Strategies - Gold is identified as the best hedge against recession, with prices potentially reaching $3,880 per ounce by year-end, driven by increased central bank purchases and shifts in private investor allocations [6]. - The report highlights that global gold ETF holdings are only 1% of the U.S. Treasury market size, indicating significant potential for price increases with even minor reallocations from other assets [6]. Oil Market Insights - Oil put options are recommended as a quality hedge in recession scenarios, with Brent crude oil prices potentially averaging $53 per barrel in a U.S. recession context [7]. - The report suggests that oil prices may experience larger declines in the next recession due to OPEC's current high spare capacity [7]. Structural Trends - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "4D structural trends" that will favor gold and copper in the long term, including de-dollarization, increased defense spending, energy risk mitigation, and insufficient copper mining investments [9][10]. - The report anticipates that European defense spending will rise from 2% to 3% of GDP over the next five years, which will increase demand for copper and other metals [9]. Copper Market Outlook - Insufficient investment in copper mining could lead to price recoveries, with estimates suggesting copper prices may reach $10,600 per ton by December 2026 under non-recession conditions [10]. - In a recession scenario, copper prices could fall below cost support levels, potentially reaching $6,750 per ton [10].

Core Viewpoint - *ST Zhongcheng has been notified by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding administrative penalties due to false records in annual reports from 2017 to 2022, which may lead to mandatory delisting risks due to significant violations of the rules [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, *ST Zhongcheng reported total operating revenue of 137 million, a decrease of 70.21% year-on-year [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -310 million, an increase in loss of 73.24% compared to the previous year [5][8]. - Total assets at the end of 2024 were approximately 2.63 billion, down 17.35% from the previous year [7]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders improved to approximately 173 million, a 147.26% increase from a negative net asset position in 2023 [7]. Regulatory Issues - The CSRC's notice indicates that *ST Zhongcheng's financial data related to its projects in the Philippines and Indonesia contained false records, including premature revenue recognition and failure to write off revoked mining rights [3][4]. - The company failed to disclose significant litigation matters in a timely manner, with a lawsuit amounting to 627 million (57.47% of 2022 net assets) disclosed late in 2023 [4]. - The CSRC plans to impose a total fine of 19 million on *ST Zhongcheng and its responsible personnel for these violations [4].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 3% year-on-year to 9.169 million wet tons, while carbonated lithium production at the Centenario plant reached 440 tons [1][4]. - The nickel sales volume for Q1 2025 was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter and year [2]. - The NPI production remained stable at 9,100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23% [3]. - The Centenario plant's lithium production is expected to reach its rated capacity by the end of 2025, despite some delays in equipment commissioning [4][14]. - Manganese ore production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, showing a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it decreased by 7% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights a strong demand for titanium iron ore, with production increasing by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons [9]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel ore production for Q1 2025 was 9.169 million wet tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, but a 34% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The external sales volume of nickel ore was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a 68% decrease from the previous quarter and an 11% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The average grade of nickel ore sold decreased significantly, impacting reference prices negatively, although a premium of nearly 50% was maintained due to limited domestic supply [2]. Lithium - The Centenario plant achieved its first lithium carbonate production in December 2024, with Q1 2025 production reaching 440 tons and a purity exceeding 99.5% [4][6]. - The plant is expected to reach its full design capacity once all equipment is operational, with a focus on improving the concentration process [14]. Manganese - Manganese ore and sinter production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7% decrease year-on-year [7]. - The average cash cost for manganese ore was $2.4 per ton, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year due to decreased sales volume [7]. Mineral Sands - Mineral sands production in Q1 2025 was 226,000 tons, a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [9]. - Titanium iron ore production increased by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons, driven by strong demand from the US and China [9]. Financial Performance - The adjusted revenue for Q1 2025 was €742 million, remaining flat year-on-year, with negative effects from sales volume and product mix offset by positive price and currency effects [10]. 2025 Outlook - Nickel production and sales are expected to be limited to 32 million tons, with external sales targeted at 29 million tons [12]. - The lithium production target for 2025 is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range due to delays in equipment commissioning [14]. - Manganese ore transport is projected between 6.7 million and 7.2 million tons for 2025, with cash costs expected to be at the upper end of the guidance range [15].

Group 1 - The U.S. has a long-term reliance on imports for critical mineral resources, which has led to increased resource acquisition costs for related manufacturing due to "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - A new agreement has been signed between Ukraine and the U.S. to establish the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, aimed at investing in mining, oil, gas projects, and related infrastructure [1] - Ukraine holds a significant position in the global mineral resource supply chain, with over 8,000 identified mineral deposits and 22 out of 50 critical minerals listed by the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Energy has included 50 types of mineral products in its critical minerals list for 2023, with a significant portion of these being heavily reliant on imports [2] - A trade investigation has been initiated by the Trump administration to assess the impact of imported critical minerals on national security, which may lead to the imposition of tariffs [3]

周三，美国和乌克兰就获取乌克兰自然资源一事达成了一项协议，基辅方面希望通过此举巩固特朗普在 与俄乌停火谈判中对乌克兰的支持。 该协议将给予美国在开发乌克兰自然资源（包括铝、石墨、石油和天然气）的新投资项目上的特权。在 特朗普政府推动结束持续了三年多的俄乌冲突之际，这被视为博取特朗普对乌好感的关键举措。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）在一份声明中表示："这项协议向俄罗斯清楚地表明，特 朗普政府长期致力于以一个自由、主权和繁荣的乌克兰为核心的和平进程。" 乌克兰经济部长尤利娅・斯维里登科（Yulia Svyrydenko）在社交媒体上发文称："我们正与美国一起创 建一个基金，该基金将吸引全球投资进入我们的国家。" 乌克兰和美国官员就协议文本争论了数周，本周早些时候，取得突破进展的势头逐渐增强，乌克兰谈判 代表访问了华盛顿，以敲定最后的细节。当时双方已经就主要协议达成了一致，但还在讨论单独文本中 阐明的技术细节。一位知情人士称，乌克兰官员原本希望先签署总体协议，之后再确定细节，但美国坚 持所有条款都要一起商定。 周三早些时候，特朗普在白宫的一次内阁会议上表示："我们达成了一项协议，我们的资 ...

7. 斯泰兰蒂斯(STLA.N)第一季度营收358亿欧元，同比下降14%，低于分析师预测的354亿欧元。因关税 相关不确定性，暂停发布2025年财务指引。 8. Visa(V.N)2025财年Q2营收96亿美元，市场预期95.5亿美元，去年同期87.8亿美元。 9. 淡水河谷(VALE.N)CEO：公司已在4月份逆转了第一季度铁矿石产量下降的趋势；对实现年度产量指 引充满信心。 金十数据整理：每日美股市场要闻速递（4月30日 周三） 重要新闻 个股新闻 1. 超微电脑(SMCI.,O)盘前大跌近17%。公司公布第三财季的初步业绩，营收为45亿至46亿美元，而分 析师预期为53.5亿美元。 5. 微软(MSFT.O)：微软将积极抗辩任何政府暂停或停止其在欧洲云业务的命令。在16个欧洲国家扩展 数据中心业务。 6. 阿里巴巴(BABA.N)将于2025年5月15日公布2025年3月份季度及2025财政年度业绩。 1. 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得-0.3%，创2022年第二季度以来新低。 2. 美国金融交易和预测市场平台Kalshi目前预期今年美国经济衰退的概率为74%。 3. 美国4月ADP就业人数增 ...

每经编辑 曾子建 4月30日，五一假期前最后一个交易日，A股市场延续震荡调整态势，沪指收盘回落0.23%，以3279.03 点报收。场内热门宽基标的A500指数ETF（159351）放量反弹，收盘逆势上涨0.11%。 A500指数ETF（159351）跟踪的中证A500指数，由各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只股票组成，行 业分布均衡，偏向大中盘风格，且新质生产力成分占比较高，为投资者配置A股代表性公司提供了工 具。场外投资者可以通过A500指数ETF联接基金（A类022453；C类022454）布局优质资产上行机遇。 消息面上，上市公司2024年年报，以及2025年一季报披露工作告一段落。A500指数ETF（159351）核心 成分股业绩显著增长。从净利润指标来看，前十大重仓股表现亮眼。其中，贵州茅台增长11.56%，宁 德时代增长32.85%，美的集团增长38.02%，长江电力增长30.56%，比亚迪增幅超100%，紫金矿业增长 62.39%，东方财富增长38.96%。 券商机构认为，A500指数ETF（159351）流动性高，核心成分股的基本面韧劲十足，外加政策催化下， 尽管受到短期市场波动影响，但依 ...

中美关税大战的风还是吹到了我的朋友圈。 最近，国内的亲朋好友对我关怀备至，隔三岔五冒出个人发信息问我： 你在美国还能吃上鸡蛋吗？ 物价是不是很贵？ 被问多了，我真有种自己快要破产的慌乱感。 于是，我赶紧去了趟位于耶鲁纽黑文附近的Costco，看看是不是真需要囤点啥。万一关税大战这场没有硝烟的战争持久打下去，家里也好少破点财、多挺 一段日子。 一、鸡蛋风云+囤货清单 第一次被人问时，我还有些丈二和尚摸不着头脑——我吃不上鸡蛋了？没有啊，我爸妈每天早餐必吃两个白水煮蛋，不是还管够么？后来，翻看了近期的 社交媒体，才发现，原来美国发生了"蛋慌"。 可欧洲各国不搭理对方。 丹麦鸡蛋协会表示会调查，但欧洲自己也缺蛋； 瑞典鸡蛋生产商直接拒绝，说运输太复杂； 挪威更是直接说"一个鸡蛋都不多卖"，因为自己都缺； 法国也表示爱莫能助，禽流感让本国鸡蛋也紧张。 这下美国政府是"求蛋无门"了。 以及"鸡蛋文学"：美墨边境上演了毒贩转行当"蛋枭"、用无人机运送鸡蛋、黑市鸡蛋价格已高于市场两倍假价钱的故事。 因为蛋慌，还引发了"鸡蛋风云"： 特朗普政府因为本土缺蛋，向全球求援。先是向欧洲各国"求蛋"，丹麦、荷兰、瑞典、挪威等国都收到 ...