1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation state. With the implementation of production cuts and potential inventory reduction, there is room for the processing fee to expand. It is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will experience short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. It is also advisable to go long on PR and short on PF [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottle Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The cost of polymerization has decreased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips has recovered to around 350 yuan/ton. The export profit has also improved, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [50]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers may switch production. The short - fiber - bottle chip spread is currently at a high valuation, and it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [27]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive. The bottle chip has high cost - effectiveness compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production and Operation**: The effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the operating rate dropped to 86.5%, but the weekly output remained at a high level [33]. - **Raw Material End**: The absolute inventory of PTA is still at a low level, and the MEG port inventory in East China is also at a certain level [40][46]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days, and the social inventory is expected to be 3.02 million tons in July [55]. - **Device Changes**: Production cuts are being implemented as expected. For example, Yisheng Hainan has shut down 1.25 million tons of production capacity, and Chongqing Wankai has postponed its shutdown [60]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has remained stable. In 2025, from January to May, the consumption of soft drinks and edible oils was relatively weak, but there are still new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry. The demand for sheet materials is average, and the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70]. - **Export**: From January to May, the export increased rapidly year - on - year, but in June, it was affected by freight rates. The traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the re - export trade to North America through South Korea and Mexico is also showing positive trends [83][88]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. Assuming that the production cuts of large manufacturers are implemented on schedule and the downstream demand increases by 5% compared to the same period last year, the market may experience a slight inventory reduction in July [95][96]. 3.2 Staple Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable in oscillation, and the futures - spot structure has maintained a back structure. The processing fee on the futures market has recovered [101][110]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Production**: The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with sporadic production cuts. The average operating rate of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93%, and the operating rate of spinning - used direct - spinning staple fiber is 96% (down 1%) [112][115]. - **Inventory**: Downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the inventory of polyester filament has rapidly increased again [118]. - **Export**: The export data in May was good [124]. - **Profit**: With the decrease in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of polyester yarn has slightly decreased. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, and the reverse substitution between virgin and recycled materials continues [135][140][141]. - **Weaving**: Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally [150][153].

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a differentiated dividend distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, which includes a cash dividend of RMB 0.225 per share, while shares repurchased will not participate in profit distribution [5][7]. Group 1: Reasons for Differentiated Dividend - The company plans to repurchase shares using its own funds, with a budget between RMB 150 million and RMB 300 million, specifically for an employee stock ownership plan [1]. - The repurchase period is set from March 7, 2022, to March 6, 2023, during which the company repurchased a total of 18,381,291 shares [1]. - A subsequent resolution increased the repurchase budget to between RMB 250 million and RMB 500 million, with a total of 23,980,100 shares repurchased by January 30, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution Plan - The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.225 per share to all shareholders, with no stock dividends or capital reserve transfers planned for the year [5]. - As of June 17, 2025, the total share capital is 1,524,654,505 shares, and after excluding the repurchased shares, the actual shares participating in the distribution amount to 1,495,286,114 shares [5][6]. Group 3: Calculation Basis for Dividend - The dividend distribution will be based on the total share capital excluding repurchased shares, with the calculation of the ex-dividend reference price showing minimal impact from the repurchased shares [6]. - The calculated ex-dividend reference price is RMB 10.3150 per share, with a negligible impact of less than 1% from the repurchased shares on the reference price [6]. Group 4: Verification Opinion - The underwriting institution, Shenwan Hongyuan, confirms that the differentiated dividend distribution complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 专播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 47. 00% 63.00% 16. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第■ (零收) 配日员(左特) t325年滚纱价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 震想规金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 Ta 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024- ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 declined, inventory remained stable, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees dropped. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas still had shutdowns, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained. In the future, downstream profits will improve, the further compression space of TA processing fees is limited when the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the absolute price is expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the开工 decreased month - on - month, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies do not decrease, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage with the increase of domestic开工. With the current low inventory and not - low valuation, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the proximal Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, the开工 dropped to 93.8%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory slightly increased. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, benefits slightly improved, and staple fiber exports maintained a high growth rate. In the future, there are also production reduction plans for staple fiber, but the implementation of production reduction in the industry needs further follow - up as the inventory and benefit pressure are acceptable, and the processing fees are expected to remain weak [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of POY fluctuated between 67.1 - 69.1, PX CFR fluctuated between 132 - 271, PTA internal spot price fluctuated between 4890 - 7075, etc. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2509(+124) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 - million - ton plant; Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton plant had maintenance; Hengli Dalian's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the external price of MEG was 850, the internal price fluctuated between 4328 - 4377, the profit was between - 870 - - 837, the total load was 67.2, and the port inventory was 54.5 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line plant had maintenance; Anhui Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the spot price was around 6744, and the market basis was around 08 + 50. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit also changed during this period [4]. - **Device Changes**: Proximally, Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, and the开工 dropped to 93.8% [4]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and other types of rubber all changed. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1705 [4]. - **Key Spreads**: The spreads such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber - NR09 - RU0, RU main contract - NR main contract, etc., also changed during this period [4]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene and Pure Benzene**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast) remained at 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 740 to 728 [8]. - **EPS, PS, ABS**: The prices of EPS (East China general material), PS (semi - transparent material), and ABS (0215A) all decreased to varying degrees during this period, and the domestic profits of these products also changed [8][9].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/3 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/1 | 2025/7/2 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4980 | 4925 | (55.00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4328 | 4362 | 34. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨44至6622。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4800 | 4794 | (6.00) | 短纤生产企业价格下调,贸易商价格偏暖震荡, | | MEG收盘价 | 4273 | 4299 | 26. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交不振。1.56dtex*38mm | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6820 | 6800 | (20.00) | 半光本白(1. 4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6600- | | 短纤基差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil dropped significantly, causing the chemical industry to follow. Despite the expectation of reduced polyester downstream load, it remained at 91.3%, and the actual polyester output reached a new high. Recent promotions helped with inventory reduction. PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period, and the action of major factories to increase basis sales has had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has recently reduced inventory rapidly, and inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil, market purchasing willingness has increased. The maintenance of a northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5030 to 4980, a change of -50 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4334 to 4328, a change of -6 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price increased from 4798 to 4800, a change of 2 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4267 to 4273, a change of 6 [2] Short - fiber - related Indicators - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6805 to 6820, a change of 15 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 79 to 156, a change of 77 [2] - 7 - 9 spread increased from 216 to 218, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5850 to 5820, a change of -30 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 955 to 1000, a change of 45 [2] Bottle - chip - related Indicators - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6116 to 6140, a change of 24 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 795 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 263 to 332, a change of 68.76 [2] Other Product Indicators - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10620 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3815 to 3800, a change of -15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14935 to 14945, a change of 10 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1143 to 1129, a change of -13.72 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7330 to 7300, a change of -30 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 377 to 392, a change of 14.76 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7575 to 7565, a change of -10 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 40.00% to 47.00%, a change of 7.00% [3] - Polyester yarn starting rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the polyester industrial yarn industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industrial yarn industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in market conditions due to a slowdown in supply and steady growth in demand, with potential investment opportunities in related companies [10][54]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand for polyester industrial yarn is steadily increasing, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.773 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2014 to 2024 [7][24]. - The export volume is expected to reach 560,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a CAGR of 4.4% from 2014 to 2024 [7][29]. - The main application areas include automotive (45% share) and non-automotive sectors (55% share), with growth driven by the automotive industry and diversification into new fields such as deep-sea technology [22][24]. Supply Side Summary - China holds over 70% of the global polyester industrial yarn production capacity, with an annual capacity of 3.34 million tons expected by the end of 2024 [8][35]. - The capacity expansion phase has ended, with no new capacity expected after 2023, and the industry concentration is increasing due to the exit of smaller players [8][37]. - The top five companies in the industry account for 65.2% of the market share, indicating a high level of concentration [8][37]. Market Conditions Summary - The market conditions for polyester industrial yarn are showing signs of recovery, with prices for ordinary yarn reaching 9,050 yuan per ton as of July 1, 2025, reflecting a 7.7% increase since the beginning of 2025 [9][46]. - The profit margins for melt-spinning and chip-spinning processes have also improved significantly, indicating a positive trend in the industry's profitability [9][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities within the polyester industrial yarn sector, highlighting the favorable supply-demand dynamics and the potential for gradual market recovery [10][54].

Supply and Demand - PTA supply decreased as Yisheng New Materials reduced production to 3.6 million tons, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 77.7% (down 1.4%) [3] - Demand for polyester also saw a slight decline, with operating rates dropping to approximately 91.2% (down 0.8%) [3] - The price of polyester filament has been adjusted downwards by 50-100, with overall sales remaining sluggish due to the off-season and high temperatures, leading to increased inventory levels [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the stable operation of new PTA units and expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories have weakened PTA supply-demand outlook [4] - The recent decline in oil prices has limited support for PTA, leading to short-term price resistance, although absolute prices remain supported by raw material costs [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end; some PTA units in South China are expected to undergo maintenance starting in August for three months [4] Cost Analysis - As of July 1, PTA processing fees reached approximately 330 yuan/ton, while TA2509 processing fees were at 350 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For PTA, the near - end supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 fell, inventory remained stable, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas had unexpected shutdowns, PXN strengthened, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved. Downstream profits improved, and the further compression space of TA processing fees was limited. The absolute price was expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies did not decrease and domestic production start - up increased, it would gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and not low valuation, it was expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [5]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end production reduction and maintenance led to a decline in the start - up rate to 93.8%, sales weakened, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, and benefits slightly improved. Exports maintained a high growth rate. There were also production reduction plans in the future, but the implementation of the plans needed further follow - up. Processing fees were expected to remain weak [5]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, but there was no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, PTA spot price was 6990, PX CFR was 77.17, etc. The average daily basis of spot transactions for 2509 was +167 [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased its load for 3.6 million tons, Shandong Weilian shut down for maintenance for 2.5 million tons, and Hengli Dalian restarted for 2.2 million tons [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, MEG outer - market price was 850, inner - market price was 4328, etc. The basis for 09 was around +68 [5]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line was under maintenance [5]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, the spot price was around 6752, and the market basis for 08 was around +100 [5]. - **Device Changes**: Zhuocheng reduced production, and Jixing shut down for maintenance, with the start - up rate dropping to 93.8% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.0, the price of Thai glue was 1725, etc. [5] - **Main Contradictions**: National explicit inventory remained stable at a low level, Thai cup rubber price rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5] Benzene and Its Derivatives - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, pure benzene (CFR China) was 739, etc. [9] - **Profit Data**: On July 1, 2025, PS domestic profit was - 249, ABS domestic profit was - 926, etc. [9]