Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [9][19]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.3% [9]. - The integration of pulp and paper production and the diversification of paper types have led to notable improvements in profitability [9]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in raw materials, with a projected increase in self-produced pulp capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability further [9]. - The company’s product structure is gradually improving, with a focus on high-end products, which is anticipated to benefit from industry demand recovery [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2025 revenue is projected at 63.241 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% for FY2026 and 10% for FY2027 [8]. - The net profit for FY2025 is expected to reach 1.767 billion RMB, with significant growth projected for the following years, reaching 4.425 billion RMB by FY2028 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 RMB in FY2025 to 0.94 RMB in FY2028 [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.74% in FY2025 to 7.64% in FY2028 [8].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15% to 2.75 billion and 2.88 billion HKD respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 17% to 7 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25, the company achieved revenue of 63.241 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.297 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and reduced coal prices [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company reported total sales of 21.5 million tons for FY25, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with significant contributions from the production of corrugated paper, white card paper, and cultural paper [2] - The company has already launched 1.2 million tons of white card paper, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp in the first half of FY26, with plans for additional production [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 HKD and 151 HKD for the first and second halves of FY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising prices of recycled paper [3] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in profits for corrugated paper from July to September, despite potential increases in costs due to rising coal and recycled paper prices [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion HKD, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 中证A500红利低波动指数 and its corresponding ETF have shown positive performance, with significant liquidity and low tracking error, indicating potential investment opportunities in low-volatility dividend stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of September 26, 2025, the 中证A500红利低波动指数 increased by 0.43%, with notable gains from stocks such as 太阳纸业 (3.04%) and 宝钢股份 (2.80%) [1]. - The 中证A500红利低波ETF rose by 0.41%, with a latest price of 0.98 yuan [1]. - The ETF's average daily trading volume over the past year was 37.94 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The 中证A500红利低波ETF experienced a net outflow of 4.86 million yuan recently, but had a total inflow of 28.76 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [1]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown since inception is 3.42%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.23% [1]. Group 3: Tracking Accuracy and Valuation - The ETF has the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds, with a tracking error of 0.149% year-to-date [2]. - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index is 9.76, indicating it is undervalued compared to historical levels, being below 88.71% of the time over the past year [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - The 中证A500红利低波动指数 consists of 50 stocks selected for their high dividend yield and low volatility, with the top ten holdings accounting for 31.13% of the index [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks include major banks and companies such as 农业银行 (1.45%) and 格力电器 (1.13%) [4].

Core Points - China announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the UN Climate Change Summit, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [1][3] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering more than 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally [3][4] - The carbon market's trading volume reached nearly 700 million tons with a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB by the end of August 2024, marking a record high since its inception [4][6] Carbon Market Development - The carbon market has seen significant growth, with a 44% increase in daily average transaction volume in 2024 compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion RMB [6][4] - The market aims to expand its coverage to include major industrial sectors by 2027, with a focus on implementing total quota control for stable emission sectors [6][7] - New industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, will be included in the carbon market by 2025, increasing the controlled greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons [10][9] Future Expectations - The Chinese government plans to enhance the carbon market's mechanisms and expand its coverage to additional sectors such as aviation, petrochemicals, and paper manufacturing [9][10] - There is an emphasis on international cooperation and the establishment of cross-border carbon trading systems, with expectations for the upcoming COP30 to facilitate global climate governance [13][15] - The carbon market is seen as a critical tool for achieving carbon neutrality and is expected to play a significant role in the global carbon pricing landscape [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings benefits from a rapidly growing internal pulp supply, leading to significant cost advantages and improved profitability per ton of paper [1] Financial Performance - For the second half of the fiscal year ending June 30, the profit per ton of paper improved to 127 HKD, a substantial increase from 31 HKD in the first half and 53 HKD in the second half of the fiscal year 2024 [1] - The management anticipates stable average prices and continued improvement in profit per ton of paper for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Valuation and Recommendations - Despite improved visibility, the fiscal year 2026 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is projected at 10 times, close to the high end of the average over the past decade [1] - Daiwa has raised the earnings per share estimates for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 22% to 37% and increased the target price from 5 HKD to 5.7 HKD, while maintaining a "Hold" rating based on fair value considerations [1]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 25, 2025, was 5060.00 [3] - The closing prices on September 24, 23, 22, and 19 were 5044.00, 5008.00, 5008.00, and 5018.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding converted US dollar prices were 619.75, 618.06, 614.33, 614.20, and 615.64 [3] - The price changes from the previous day were 0.31721%, 0.71885%, 0.00000%, -0.19928%, and 0.07978% [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 550, 566, 602, 602, and 607 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 565, 581, 617, 617, and 632 respectively [3] Group 2: Import Profit Calculation - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was -154.38, for Canadian Lion pulp was -541.54, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was -99.83 [4] - The port US dollar prices were 780, 730, and 700 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5425, and 5610 [4] Group 3: National and Regional Pulp Price Averages - From September 19 - 25, 2025, the national average prices for softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices for the same types of pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 22 - 25, 2025, the cultural paper (offset paper index, copperplate paper index), packaging paper (white card index), and tissue paper (tissue index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 839 respectively [4] - The profit margins for offset paper, copperplate paper, white card, and tissue paper on September 25 were 1.9958%, 15.6563%, -12.3681%, and 6.6876% respectively [4] - The changes in profit margins were 0.0316, 0.0391, 0.2454, and -0.0382 respectively [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - On September 25, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1370.00, the softwood - natural price spread was 210, the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1810, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4034 [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is undergoing short - term fluctuations. The external market quotations show a mixed trend, the supply - side tightening needs to be reflected in shipments, port inventories are at a high level, and downstream paper mills still aim to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The market is expected to continue its low - level volatile adjustment [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5268 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5314 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.87%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5000 - 6600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Silver Star was 5600 - 5620 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced its new September wood pulp export quotations: softwood pulp Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Star was 520 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last month [8] - In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7%. China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% month - on - month and 5.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.84% month - on - month [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, affected by typhoon weather, the operation of individual production lines in South China declined, and the production of some downstream enterprises stagnated. The trading in the base paper market weakened, showing a weak and volatile trend [8] 2. Industry News - On September 25, the PM71 paper machine at Shanying's Suzhou base was successfully started. After the successful start of the PM72 at the same base, this is another major milestone achieved by Voith and Shanying. The dual - machine operation of PM71&72 at the Suzhou base marks a key step in Shanying's layout in the high - end corrugated base paper market [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][24][30]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met prior forecasts, with revenue of 63.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] Performance Review - FY25 revenue reached 63.241 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.767 billion yuan after deducting approximately 400 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, consistent with prior guidance [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.297 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and cost improvements from declining coal prices [1] Development Trends - The company expects continued growth in FY26, with total sales of 21.5 million tons in FY25, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by significant increases in sales of various paper types [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of high-end kraft paper, rather than merely expanding production capacity [2] - In FY26, the company has already launched production of 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with further expansions planned [2] Price and Cost Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in paper prices, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 yuan and 151 yuan for the first and second halves of FY25, respectively [3] - The company expects a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but overall profit margins for corrugated paper are expected to recover slightly [3] Capital Expenditure and Profit Forecast - Capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [3] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion yuan, which is higher than previous guidance [3] - The company has raised net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15%, respectively, to 2.75 billion yuan and 2.88 billion yuan, with a target price increase of 17% to 7 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3]

Group 1 - The first meeting of the "Navigator Employee Stock Ownership Plan" was held on September 24, 2025, with 43,450,000 shares represented, accounting for 90.33% of the total subscribed shares [2][3] - The meeting approved the establishment of a management committee for the employee stock ownership plan to oversee daily management and protect the rights of shareholders [3][4] - The committee consists of three members, with their term aligned with the duration of the employee stock ownership plan [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting elected three members to the management committee, with unanimous approval from the shareholders present [4][6] - The management committee was authorized to handle various matters related to the employee stock ownership plan, including convening meetings and managing shareholder rights [5][6] - The plan will forfeit certain shareholder rights, including proposal and voting rights, during its duration [6][7] Group 3 - The "Striver Employee Stock Ownership Plan" also held its first meeting on September 24, 2025, with 26,680,021 shares represented, accounting for 82.81% of the total subscribed shares [9][10] - Similar to the Navigator plan, a management committee was established for the Striver plan, with three members elected unanimously [10][11] - The Striver plan will also forfeit certain shareholder rights and has a similar reduction arrangement for share sales post-lockup [14][15] Group 4 - As of September 25, 2025, the Navigator plan purchased 60,000,000 shares at an average price of RMB 4.83 per share, representing 4.49% of the total share capital [18][19] - The Striver plan purchased 40,030,021 shares at an average price of RMB 4.88 per share, representing 2.99% of the total share capital [19] - Both plans will have a lock-up period of 12 months starting from September 26, 2025, during which they will forfeit specific shareholder rights [19][20]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Bohui Paper has seen significant trading activity, with a total of 66.84 million shares traded on September 25, amounting to 323 million yuan at a price of 4.83 yuan per share [2][3] - In the last three months, the stock has recorded a total of five block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 501 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Bohui Paper on September 25 was 4.83 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.23%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.58% and a total transaction amount of 37.92 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for the stock is 17.3 million yuan, with an increase of 1.2443 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 0.72% [3] - One institution has rated the stock in the past five days, with Guotai Junan Securities setting the highest target price at 6.26 yuan as of September 19 [3] - Bohui Paper was established on April 29, 1994, with a registered capital of 1.336844288 billion yuan [3]