重磅研报 持股过节 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 | 【宏观】高频半月观—数据进入"假期模式"——20260208 | | --- | | 【金融工程】持股过节——20260208 | | 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面和宏观基本面弱化—— | | 20260207 | | 【固定收益】持债过节——20260208 | | 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，政府债融资将回落——流动性和机构行为 | | 跟踪——20260207 | | 【建筑材料】竣工端建材将迎来长周期拐点——20260208 | | 【电力设备】钙钛矿：迎来 GW 级量产——20260206 | 【钢铁】方大特钢（600507.SH）-成本优势明显，增长潜力突出—— 20260208 朝闻国盛 研究视点 【煤炭】印度扩产炼钢提振焦煤需求，拟加码美国进口优化供应格局— —20260208 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——双轨并行，商业不动产 REITs 密集上报—— 20260207 【计算机】新国都（300130.SZ）-年报业绩符合预期，软硬出海+港股 上市加速全球化布 ...

证券研究报告 印尼意在稳价，节后有望开启 补库行情 ——煤炭行业周报（2月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年2月8日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年2月6日，本周中信煤炭行业收跌0.61%，沪深300指数下跌1.33%，跑赢沪深300指数0.72个百分点。全板块整周9只股价上涨，27 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为12.88%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月30日-2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为733万吨，周环比减少3.3%，年同比增加35.9%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周减少2.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少8.2%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.5%。截至2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为740万吨，周环比减少1.7%，年同比增加 33.2%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2273万吨，周环比增加2.2%，年同比减少23.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's asset restructuring plan, valued at over 1 trillion yuan, has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in just six days, setting a new record for the speed of such approvals in the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - The restructuring involves the acquisition of equity in 12 companies under the State Energy Group, covering sectors such as electricity, coal, chemicals, and logistics, for a total consideration of 133.598 billion yuan, along with a fundraising of up to 20 billion yuan [1][6]. - This transaction aims to resolve the issue of competition between China Shenhua and its controlling shareholder, the State Energy Group, in core areas such as coal, transportation, and sales [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Resources and Capacity - Post-transaction, China Shenhua's coal reserves will increase to 68.49 billion tons, marking a growth rate of 64.72%, while its recoverable coal reserves will rise to 34.5 billion tons, with a growth rate of 97.71% [6]. - The company's coal production capacity is expected to reach 512 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 56.57% [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The total assets of the 12 target companies amount to 233.423 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 87.399 billion yuan [7]. - Following the completion of the transaction, China Shenhua's total assets will expand to 876.299 billion yuan, enhancing its leading position in the coal industry and improving operational efficiency across electricity, chemicals, and logistics sectors [8]. - The 12 target companies are projected to generate revenues of 113.786 billion yuan, 113.974 billion yuan, and 53.27 billion yuan from 2023 to July 2025, with corresponding net profits of 6.687 billion yuan, 9.428 billion yuan, and 4.593 billion yuan [8].

省属企业2025年市场化改革提质扩面，经理层任期制与契约化管理基本实现全覆盖，5093名经理层 人员实行任期制与契约化管理，占比99.7%。2025年，省属企业新聘任管理人员采用竞争上岗方式1767 人，占比73.7%；2284名管理人员实行任期制与契约化管理，占比13.9%；管理人员末等调整和不胜任 退出全面推行，累计调整退出1430人，占管理人员总人数的8.73%。（记者：沈谦） 省国资委相关负责人介绍，2025年，省国资委稳妥推进战略性重组和专业化整合，完成省属企业煤 炭交易平台整合，全年煤炭交易6.2亿吨，同比增加1.9亿吨，增幅44.2%。省属企业内部完成同质化专 业化整合140宗。省属企业市场化退出酒店、文旅景区等16类非主业项目223个。 2025年，省属企业现代公司治理体系进一步完善，省属企业党委前置研究讨论重大经营管理事项清 单动态优化率达100%，"三重一大"决策制度不断完善，党委领导作用明显增强；全面实现董事会应建 尽建、外部董事占多数，董事会运行制度进一步完善，运行效率、决策质量大幅提高；省属企业集团管 控建设持续深化，省属企业集团总部制定子企业差异化授放权清单，不断优化总部组织机构。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TBEA has made a significant investment in expanding its mineral resources by acquiring the exploration rights for the Kumusu No. 5 coal mine in Xinjiang for 2.705 billion yuan, which is a strategic move to support its energy business and power supply [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment and Acquisition - TBEA's subsidiary, Xinjiang Tianchi Energy Co., won the bidding for the Kumusu No. 5 exploration rights, with the area covering 65.85 square kilometers [2][3] - The acquisition is part of TBEA's broader strategy to strengthen its core energy business, which includes coal, gold, bauxite, and lithium resources, creating a closed-loop industrial chain from upstream raw materials to midstream manufacturing [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, TBEA reported revenues of 72.92 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.484 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [1][6] - The company's total assets reached a historical high of 224.4 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, reflecting significant growth in asset scale [7] Group 3: Business Segments - TBEA operates in four main sectors: power transmission and transformation, new energy, energy, and new materials, with coal business contributing approximately 20% to its revenue [4][5] - The coal business generated 8.832 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 18.27% of the total revenue [4]

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◐ 市场监管总局发布两项燃气报警器强制性国家标准。 据央视新闻报道，2月6日了解到，市场监管总局（国家标准委）批准发 布了《可燃气体探测器 第1部分：工业及商业用途点型可燃气体探测器》与《可燃气体探测器 第2部分：家用可燃气体探测器》 两项强制性国家标准。 ◐ 我国完成首个长输管道改输二氧化碳现场试验。 据央视新闻报道，2月5日从国家管网集团获悉，国内首个长输管道改输二氧 化碳现场试验在河南濮阳顺利完成，标志着我国在存量长输管道资源化利用领域完成从理论研究到工程实践的关键跨越，为碳捕 集、利用与封存产业规模化推进提供了可复制、可推广的工程示范。 新闻聚焦 ◐ 我国煤矿智能化建设进入安全高效新阶段。 据央视新闻2月7日报道，从国家能源局了解到，截至202 5年底，全国已建成智能 化煤矿106 6处，智能化产能占比超过65%。煤矿智能化建设向纵深发展，5G、人工智能、工业物联网、智能装备等与煤炭开发 技术深度融合。全国已建成的智能化矿井采煤、掘进工作面单班平均减人比例均超过20%。 国内新闻 ◐ 年景预测：2 02 6年全球"风光水"发电能力将提高。 据新华社报道，中国气象局国家气候中心与全球能源互联网发展合作组 ...

点击蓝字 关注" 中国电力报 " ●我国煤矿智能化建设进入安全高效新阶段。据央视财经消息，从国家能源局了解到，"十四五"以来，我国持续推进新一代信息技术与煤炭产业深度融 合，煤矿智能化建设实现跨越式发展，成功实现减人、增安、提效三重效应。截至2025年底，全国已建成智能化煤矿1066处，智能化产能占比超过65%。 煤矿智能化建设向纵深发展，5G、人工智能、工业物联网、智能装备等与煤炭开发技术深度融合。 02 ●中国华能在藏首个风电项目并网发电。2月8日，中国华能在藏首个风电项目——华能才朋风电项目首批机组正式并网发电，标志着中国华能在藏新能源 发展实现新突破。该项目位于西藏自治区山南市乃东区境内平均海拔约5050米的高原上，装机规模8万千瓦，配置16兆瓦/64兆瓦时构网型储能系统。项目 拟建设安装15台5兆瓦风机和1台6.25兆瓦的示范机组，预计年发电量超2.23亿千瓦时，每年可节约标准煤约6万吨。查看详情→ Timario Corporation 2026年2月9日 == J=1号 ▲ 近日，由中国电建所属水电九局参建的河北昌黎500 兆瓦海光项目首次并网发电。该项目位于秦皇岛市昌黎 县东侧海域,总用海面积 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expected increase of over 15% in the next 3-6 months [6] Core Insights - Focus on the elasticity of electricity coal demand, particularly the low base effect in the first half of the year. The electricity consumption in the first half of 2025 is expected to grow significantly due to a low base, with industrial electricity consumption contributing only 40% to the total increase, which is much lower than its usual share [2] - The coal-fired power generation is also anticipated to see high growth in the first half of the year due to a low base, with a year-on-year decline of 2.15% in coal power generation volume [2] - The demand for electricity coal may be driven by overseas data centers and industrialization, which could lead to a tighter supply of imported coal [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the marginal demand for coal, which could become a driving force for coal price changes [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Electricity Demand - The first half of 2025 is expected to see high growth in electricity consumption due to a low base effect, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries [2] - Emerging manufacturing sectors are showing strong demand, contributing to a positive outlook for electricity consumption growth in the first half of 2026 [2] Section 2: Coal Power Generation - Coal power generation is projected to experience high growth in the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in the previous year providing a low base for comparison [2] - The report anticipates that the installed capacity of coal power may not see significant growth, which could lead to better-than-expected coal power generation [2] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, particularly those enhancing market value management and capital operations [3] - Specific companies highlighted include Guiguan Electric Power, Huadian International, and others that are expected to benefit from improved hydrological data and market conditions [4]