Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of butadiene rubber has slightly stronger support. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources have increased, but the spot resources remain tight. High - premium offers struggle to attract buyers, and private price - holding efforts also face difficulties in getting terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened [2]. - Tire enterprises' orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged overhauls and some have reduced production, dragging down the tire capacity utilization rate. As the production schedule of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization rate. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,450 - 10,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the position volume of the main contract is 72,012, an increase of 634 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,980 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 63.51 dollars/barrel, down 1.38 dollars; WTI crude oil is at 59.44 dollars/barrel, down 1.3 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; Naphtha CFR Japan is 573 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.56 million tons/week, up 0.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.02%, up 2.7 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 29,000 tons, down 800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, down 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.92%, up 4.07 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 636 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan; the social inventory is 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons; the trader's inventory is 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises' orders are insufficient, some sample enterprises have arranged overhauls, and some have reduced production, dragging down the sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Previously, most overhauled butadiene rubber devices have gradually restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the raw material buyers have actively followed up, the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly strengthened, private price - holding efforts struggle to get terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened, and this week the production enterprises' inventory has increased while the trading enterprises' inventory has changed slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, raw material buyers have actively followed up, and after the restart of previously overhauled devices [2].

Group 1: Core Information - The report is a Synthetic Rubber Morning Report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 19, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Data - The price of the BR main contract (12) on November 18 was 10,505, with a daily change of 50 and an interval change of 75 compared to October 17. The trading volume was 141,146, up 26,512 from the previous day but down 10,367 compared to October 17. The open interest was 72,021, a decrease of 1,785 from the previous day and 4,376 from October 17. The warrant quantity remained at 12,250, with no daily change and a decrease of 360 compared to October 17. The long - short ratio was 29.40, a daily and interval decrease of 1 [4] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of BR was 45 on November 18, with no daily change but an interval increase of 75. The 12 - 01 spread was 5, a daily decrease of 35 and an interval decrease of 30. The 01 - 02 spread was 20, a daily increase of 10 [4] Spot and Price Difference Data - The Shandong market price of BR on November 18 was 10,550, with a daily increase of 50 and an interval increase of 150. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500, with no daily change but an interval increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 50. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640, a daily decrease of 45 and an interval decrease of 45 [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit of BR on November 18 was 904, a daily decrease of 52 and an interval decrease of 3. The import profit was - 798, a daily increase of 452 and an interval increase of 567. The export profit was 1,831, a daily decrease of 364 and an interval decrease of 466 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Price Data - The Shandong market price of BD on November 18 was 7,300, with a daily increase of 100 and an interval increase of 150. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,000, with no daily change but an interval increase of 100. The CFR China price was 770, with no daily change but an interval decrease of 20 [4] Profit Data - The import profit of BD on November 18 was 716, a daily increase of 25 and an interval increase of 269. The export profit was - 1,166, a daily decrease of 22 and an interval decrease of 1,589. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1,764, a daily decrease of 115 and an interval decrease of 40 [4] Group 4: Other Product Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit remained at 1,350 on November 18, with no daily change but an interval increase of 75. The ABS production profit was - 302, a daily increase of 15 and an interval decrease of 335. The SBS production profit was - 220, with no daily change but an interval decrease of 130 [4]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" dated November 18, 2025, prepared by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][3] 2. Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data** - BR主力合约(12) price on November 17 was 10455, with a daily change of 10 and an interval change of 215 compared to October 16 [4] - Open interest on November 17 was 73806, down 632 from the previous day and 8235 from October 16 [4] - Trading volume on November 17 was 114634, up 17371 from the previous day and 25483 from October 16 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on November 17 was 12250, down 260 from the previous day and 360 from October 16 [4] - The virtual - to - real ratio on November 17 was 30.12, with no daily change and a 2 - point decrease compared to October 16 [4] - The BR basis on November 17 was 45, down 10 from the previous day and 115 from October 16 [4] - The 12 - 01 spread on November 17 was 40, up 30 from the previous day and down 25 from October 16 [4] - The 01 - 02 spread on November 17 was 10, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from October 16 [4] - The RU - BR spread on November 17 was 4860, up 90 from the previous day and 5 from October 16 [4] - The NR - BR spread on November 17 was 1900, up 80 from the previous day and 15 from October 16 [4] - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on November 17 was 10500, with no daily change and a 100 - point increase compared to October 16 [4] - Chuanhua market price on November 17 was 10400, with no daily change and a 150 - point increase compared to October 16 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on November 17 was 10500, with no daily change and a 300 - point increase compared to October 16 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1400 from November 11 to 17 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on November 17 was 1682, with no daily change and no change compared to October 16 [4] - **Profit Data** - Spot processing profit on November 17 was 26, with a daily change of 26 and a 130 - point decrease compared to October 16 [4] - Import profit on November 17 was - 1247, down 16 from the previous day and up 119 from October 16 [4] - Export profit on November 17 was 2191, up 16 from the previous day and down 106 from October 16 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on November 17 was 7200, down 25 from the previous day and up 225 from October 16 [4] - Jiangsu market price on November 17 was 7025, up 50 from the previous day and 175 from October 16 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on November 17 was 7000, with no daily change and a 100 - point increase compared to October 16 [4] - CFR China price on November 17 was 770, down 20 from the previous day and 20 from October 16 [4] - **Profit Data** - Ethylene cracking profit: data from November 14 onwards was N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit: data from November 14 onwards was N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on November 17 was - 1649, up 50 from the previous day and 175 from October 16 [4] - Import profit on November 17 was 692, up 202 from the previous day and 346 from October 16 [4] - Export profit on November 17 was - 1146, down 36 from the previous day and 1727 from October 16 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on November 17 was 1400, with no daily change and a 225 - point increase compared to October 16 [4] - ABS production profit data from November 13 onwards was N/A [4] - SBS production profit on November 17 was - 220, with no daily change and a 130 - point decrease compared to October 16 [4]

Core Points - A new stock, Hai'an Group, issued 46.49 million shares at a price of 48.00 yuan, raising 2.232 billion yuan [1] - As of November 14, 93 companies have gone public this year, raising a total of 97.844 billion yuan, with an average fundraising of 1.052 billion yuan per company [1] - The most funds raised by a single company this year is 18.171 billion yuan by Huadian New Energy, primarily for wind and solar power projects [1] Fundraising Overview - The total number of new stocks issued this year includes 21 from the Shanghai main board raising 41.405 billion yuan, 11 from the Shenzhen main board raising 10.157 billion yuan, 28 from the ChiNext board raising 22.030 billion yuan, 11 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board raising 17.746 billion yuan, and 22 from the Beijing Stock Exchange raising 6.506 billion yuan [1] - 22 companies raised over 1 billion yuan, with 1 company exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] Price and Regional Distribution - The average initial public offering (IPO) price this year is 20.79 yuan, with 4 companies priced above 50 yuan, the highest being Tianyouwei at 93.50 yuan [2] - The majority of new stocks are concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, with fundraising amounts led by Fujian, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [2]

合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/14 | 品种 | 类別 | 指标 | 10/14 | 11/7 | 11/11 | 11/12 | 11/13 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约(12) | 10780 | 10190 | 10240 | 10430 | 10480 | 50 | 290 | | | | 持つ量 | 29075 | 85686 | 82041 | 76397 | 76365 | -32 | -9321 | | | 需回 | 成交量 | 65011 | 106318 | 89151 | 151513 | 99633 | -51880 | -୧୧୫୧ | | | | 仓単数量 | 8750 | 12300 | 12610 | 12610 | 12510 | -100 | 210 | | | | 虚实比 | 16.61 | 34.83 | 32.53 | 30.29 | 30.52 | 0 | -4 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 270 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber (603049) is committed to continuously optimizing manufacturing processes and improving product quality based on market feedback, while also launching new products [1] Group 1 - The company actively engages with market feedback to enhance its manufacturing techniques [1] - There is a focus on improving product quality as part of the company's long-term strategy [1] - The introduction of new products is a key aspect of the company's ongoing development efforts [1]

Group 1 - The Yanshan Petrochemical Tianjin Nangang Green High-end Rubber New Materials Project has officially entered the construction phase with the commencement of piling work, marking a significant step in the collaboration between Tianjin and Sinopec Group [1] - The project aims to produce 100,000 tons per year of solution styrene-butadiene rubber and 100,000 tons per year of polybutadiene rubber, reflecting a strategic alignment with national and local industrial policies [1] - The establishment of a dedicated working group by Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area to facilitate project approvals and registrations demonstrates the local government's commitment to supporting the project [1] Group 2 - The Yanshan Tianjin project is designed to enhance the regional rubber industry chain by utilizing local carbon four resources and adopting new processing technologies, thereby improving the competitiveness of Sinopec's synthetic rubber products [2] - The project is positioned to meet the high-quality raw material demands of the premium tire market, aligning with the industry's shift towards green and high-end products [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 12, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: - BR主力合约(12)价格为10240元，日度变化-35元，周度变化5元 [4] - 持仓量为82041，日度变化-1657，周度变化53203 [4] - 成交量为89151，日度变化-25103，周度变化5671 [4] - 仓单数量为12610，日度变化310，周度变化4050 [4] - 虚实比为32.53，日度变化-1，周度变化16 [4] - **Basis and Spread**: - 顺丁基差为160，日度变化135 [4] - 丁苯基差为560，日度变化85 [4] - 12 - 01为65，日度变化-5，周度变化-25 [4] - 01 - 02为5，日度变化10，周度变化-5 [4] - RU - BR为4855，日度变化20，周度变化240 [4] - NR - BR为1885，日度变化-5，周度变化185 [4] - **Spot and Profit**: - 山东市场价为10400元，日度变化100元，周度变化200元 [4] - 传化市场价为10250元，日度变化50元，周度变化100元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价为10200元，日度变化0元，周度变化0元 [4] - CFR东北亚为1400美元，日度变化-50美元，周度变化-50美元 [4] - CFR东南亚为1685美元，日度变化-15美元，周度变化-15美元 [4] - 现货加工利润为1086元，日度变化24元，周度变化149元 [4] - 进口利润为-1366元，日度变化507元，周度变化620元 [4] - 出口利润为2297元，日度变化-198元，周度变化-298元 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit**: - 山东市场价为6975元，日度变化75元，周度变化50元 [4] - 江苏市场价为6850元，日度变化0元，周度变化100元 [4] - 扬子出厂价为6900元，日度变化0元，周度变化0元 [4] - CFR中国为790美元，日度变化0美元，周度变化-60美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - 碳四抽提利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润为-1824元，日度变化0元，周度变化170元 [4] - 进口利润为346元，日度变化2元 [4] - 出口利润为-914元，日度变化-144元，周度变化-1663元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润为1175元，日度变化0元，周度变化13元 [4] - ABS生产利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - SBS生产利润为-90元，日度变化0元，周度变化-285元 [4] Data Sources - Mysteel, Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure from domestic raw material production increases and lackluster demand. Tire companies face shipment pressure, with under - performing foreign trade orders. In November, some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the overall capacity utilization rate. Key factors to track include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [2][28] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The 01 contract opened at 11,125 yuan/ton in October, reached a high of 11,285 yuan/ton, a low of 10,175 yuan/ton, and closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 560 yuan or 5.04% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - Influencing Factors 2.1 Butadiene Capacity Expansion - From 2021 - 2025, China's butadiene capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with the growth rate first decreasing and then increasing. In 2025, domestic capacity expansion is concentrated, with the capacity growth rate reaching 14.16%, a five - year high. By the end of 2025, China's total butadiene capacity will reach 7.577 million tons/year [5][6] 2.2 High Butadiene Operating Rate and Import Growth - In October, butadiene production was 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%. From January to October, production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 66.48%. In September 2025, butadiene imports were 56,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From January to September, imports were 393,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.8% [7][8][10] 2.3 High Growth in Butadiene Imports - The import volume of butadiene has been growing rapidly, as shown by the data from January - September and September 2025 [10] 2.4 Pressure on Butadiene Prices and Profits - The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly this period, with a 1.67% week - on - week decrease. The theoretical production profits of different butadiene production processes decreased. As of October 29, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 578 yuan/ton from the previous period [13] 2.5 Sufficient Synthetic Rubber Capacity Expansion and High Production Growth - New synthetic rubber capacities have been put into production, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year nickel/neodymium - based cis - butadiene rubber capacity and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton device. In September, synthetic rubber production was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.50%. From January to September, production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.20% [15][17] 2.6 High Growth in Imports of Natural and Synthetic Rubber (Including Latex) - In September 2025, China imported 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, imports were 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase year - on - year [19] 2.7 Tire Production Growth Slows - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, production was 899.386 million pieces, a 1.5% increase year - on - year, far lower than the 9.59% growth rate in 2024. The export market growth rate declined, and the replacement market performed poorly [22][25] 2.8 Tire Inventory Needs to be Reduced and Operating Rate Increase is Limited - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Tire finished - product inventory needs to be reduced [26] 2.9 Weak Supply - Demand Drivers and Synchronous Decline of Raw Materials and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Due to weak supply - demand drivers, raw materials and cis - butadiene rubber prices declined synchronously, with butadiene having a larger and faster decline [27] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure on the raw material side and lack of demand - side support. Key factors to monitor include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [28]