合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11600 | -35 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 59203 | -5302 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11300 | 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11300 | 200 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11350 | 东(日,元/吨) 200 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11550 | 250 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -285 | -150 东(日,元/吨) | | | | 上游情况 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Bullish on the synthetic rubber industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for tires at home and abroad is satisfactory, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. DL Chemical's plan to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC strongly supports market sentiment. Although the supply prices of BD/BR have risen significantly, the current fundamentals of BD/BR remain weak. Attention should be paid to the news of continued exports of butadiene, the strength changes among rubber varieties, the inventory reduction progress of BD/BR, and the change in the raw material price transmission logic on the supply side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. The price increase was driven by the expectation of reduced production profit of cis - butadiene rubber due to butadiene inventory reduction in January of the next year, the news of butadiene export transactions to South Korea, and the expected macro - level benefits of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [4] 3.2 Influencing Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was [missing data] tons (with a change of [missing data]%), and the capacity utilization rate was [missing data]%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [missing data] tons (67%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. In the butadiene sector, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, etc., were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, with a slight increase in production. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, except for the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical being shut down, other plants were operating at a high load, and the supply remained sufficient [3] 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, in the second half of the month, the market transaction remained dull, and the price was weak. The market supply was abundant, and the all - season tires were mainly for inventory reduction. In the all - steel tire market, the demand decreased, and the transaction price was chaotic. Some merchants were reducing inventory and reducing purchases, but the inventory reduction effect was not as expected [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,540 tons, a 1.56% month - on - month decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% month - on - month. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, the downstream price - pressing led to weak transactions, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 835 yuan/ton, in East China was - 735 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 685 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,145 yuan/ton (- 0.60%); the NR - BR spread was 1,120 yuan/ton (- 16.42%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.15% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,154 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 1,058.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 457 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 4.21% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once exceeded 7, which was beneficial to import enterprises. The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The UK's CPI data showed that inflation pressure still existed to some extent. China's financial data in November showed that M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock remained at 8.5%, indicating weak domestic demand but still policy support [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately maintain long positions, and be vigilant against the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Synthetic Rubber - Related Varieties - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships among crude oil, synthetic rubber, butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, and other varieties [9] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown situations of China's butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in 2025, including production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [11] 3.6 Price Seasonal Charts and Related Data - The report presents a series of price seasonal charts, including those of cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot prices, butadiene domestic and international prices, and also includes data on production, consumption, inventory, cost, and profit of butadiene and synthetic rubber [22][23][27][28][29][31][34][38] 3.7 Downstream Industry Data - The report provides data on the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream industries such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel tires) and conveyor belts, reflecting the demand situation of the synthetic rubber industry [98][105][112]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 合成橡胶：中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,635 196,070 | 11,285 154,890 | 350 41180 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 64,505 | 82,649 | -18144 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,126,455 | 877,526 | 248929 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -285 | -135 | -150 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -95 | -120 | 25 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,800 | 10,700 | | | | ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Analysis Futures Market - On December 26, the BR main contract (12) price was 11,635, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 405 [4]. - The position was 64,505, a daily decrease of 18,144 and a weekly decrease of 39,224 [4]. - The trading volume was 196,070, a daily increase of 41,180 and a weekly increase of 22,143 [4]. - The warrant quantity remained at 23,490, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2,680 [4]. - The long - short ratio was 13.73, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The butadiene rubber basis was - 582, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 55 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene basis was - 135, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 520 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was - 5, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 10 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was - 5, a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,145, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly increase of 170 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,120, a daily decrease of 290 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,350, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 11,400, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 500 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,625, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4]. Profit Analysis - The spot processing profit was 582, a daily decrease of 183 and a weekly decrease of 237 [4]. - The import profit was - 234, a daily increase of 230 and a weekly increase of 3 [4]. - The export profit was 870, a daily decrease of 202 and a weekly decrease of 177 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Analysis Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 8,400, a daily increase of 375 and a weekly increase of 575 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 8,200, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 425 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,100, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. - CFR China was 930 [4]. Profit Analysis - The ethylene cracking profit was - 39 [4]. - The carbon - four extraction profit was 1,059 [4]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 684, a daily increase of 470 and a weekly increase of 495 [4]. - The import profit was 70 [4]. - The export profit was - 1,399, a daily decrease of 363 and a weekly increase of 237 [4]. Other Product Profit Analysis - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,188, a daily decrease of 125 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The ABS production profit was - 738 [4]. - The SBS production profit was - 635, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly decrease of 240 [4]. Data Source - The data sources are Mysteel and Wind [8]

Core Viewpoint - Liquid Isoprene Rubber (LIR) is a high-performance liquid rubber with applications in various industries, including wire and cable, automotive tires, and sealing components. The market for LIR is expected to expand as downstream industries grow and standards improve [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - LIR is characterized by its environmental friendliness, good processability, excellent viscosity, wide temperature resistance, and long service life, making it suitable for applications in wire and cable, automotive tires, and sealing components [1]. - The main preparation methods for LIR include ionic polymerization, free radical polymerization, and coordination polymerization, with ionic polymerization being the most commonly used due to its high technical maturity and simple operation [1]. Group 2: Market Standards and Regulations - In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China approved the implementation of the industry standard "SH/T 1842-2023 Liquid Isoprene Rubber," which clarifies definitions, terminology, testing methods, inspection rules, and grade naming for LIR [1]. - The continuous improvement of industry standards is expected to enhance the market share of high-quality LIR in China [1]. Group 3: Market Participants and Development - Major global players in the LIR market include Kuraray and Zeon from Japan, while domestic producers in China include Masni Elastomers, Rongcan Bio, and Sinopec [3]. - The LIR industry in China is still in its early stages, facing challenges such as high technical barriers and production costs, which limit the number of market participants [3]. - Analysts predict that as market demand gradually releases, the development speed of China's LIR industry is expected to accelerate, necessitating increased R&D investment from local companies to enhance their technical capabilities and product quality [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view was presented in the provided content; the report mainly offers data on the synthetic rubber market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on December 24 was 11395, with a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 355. The open interest was 99013, with a daily decrease of 4086 and a weekly decrease of 2363. The trading volume was 191046, with a daily increase of 34482 and a weekly increase of 63612. The warehouse receipt quantity was 23490, with a daily increase of 980 and a weekly increase of 3310. The long - short ratio was 21.08, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. - **Price Differences**: The cash - and - carry spread was - 345, with a daily decrease of 170 and a weekly decrease of 155. The butadiene - styrene price difference was not fully clear from the data. The 02 - 03 spread was - 10, with a daily increase of 5 and a weekly increase of 0; the 03 - 04 spread was - 5, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 20. The RU - BR spread was 4255, with a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 25; the NR - BR spread was 1220, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 195 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11050, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 200. The Transfar market price was 10950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11100, with a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1625, with no daily change [4]. - **Profit Indicators**: The spot processing profit was 767, with a daily decrease of 27 and a weekly increase of 149. The import profit was - 571, with a daily increase of 64 and a weekly decrease of 173. The export profit was 1166, with a daily decrease of 57 and a weekly decrease of 22 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price on December 24 was 7925, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 50. The Jiangsu market price was 7700, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7800, with no daily or weekly change. The CFR China price was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 60 [4]. - **Profit Indicators**: The ethylene cracking profit data was incomplete. The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1254, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 120. The import profit was 164, with a daily increase of 84 and a weekly decrease of 511. The export profit was - 945, with a daily increase of 279 and a weekly increase of 802. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1313, with a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS production profit was - 425, with no daily or weekly change [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of new ethylene-propylene rubber production capacity, with a project to produce 50,000 tons annually being publicly evaluated for environmental impact [1][8] - The project is initiated by Guangxi Huayi Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd., and is located in the Qinzhou Port Petrochemical Industrial Park in the China (Guangxi) Pilot Free Trade Zone [1][2][8] - Ethylene-propylene rubber is a synthetic rubber widely used in various applications, including automotive parts, waterproof materials for construction, wire and cable sheathing, heat-resistant hoses, tapes, automotive seals, and lubricant additives [2][9] Group 2 - Another project for a 50,000 tons/year ethylene-propylene rubber facility is being proposed by Lihua Yi (Lijin) Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd., with a planned location in the Lihua Yi area of the Lijin Coastal New Area Chemical Industry Park [3][10] - The project will occupy an area of 68,024 square meters and will include the construction of a corresponding auxiliary engineering, storage and transportation facilities, and environmental protection projects [3][10] - Additionally, Inner Mongolia Keda New Materials Co., Ltd. is planning a project to produce 50,000 tons of ternary ethylene-propylene rubber and 50,000 tons of rare earth polybutadiene rubber, with a total investment of 111.016 million yuan [4][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR Main Contract (12) Information - **Price**: On 11/21 it was 10385, on 12/17 it was 11160, on 12/19 it was 11020, on 12/22 it was 11230, and on 12/23 it was 11175, with a weekly change of 15 [4] - **Holding Volume**: On 11/21 it was 68247, on 12/17 it was 105416, on 12/19 it was 101995, on 12/22 it was 103729, and on 12/23 it was 103099, with a daily change of -630 and a weekly change of -2317 [4] - **Trading Volume**: On 11/21 it was 167355, on 12/17 it was 181436, on 12/19 it was 127276, on 12/22 it was 173927, and on 12/23 it was 156564, with a daily change of -17363 and a weekly change of -24872 [4] - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: On 11/21 it was 12030, on 12/17 it was 19680, on 12/19 it was 20810, on 12/22 it was 20810, and on 12/23 it was 22510, with a daily change of 1700 and a weekly change of 2830 [4] - **Virtual - Physical Ratio**: On 11/21 it was 28.37, on 12/17 it was 26.78, on 12/19 it was 24.51, on 12/22 it was 24.92, and on 12/23 it was 22.90, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -4 [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On 12/17 it was -210, on 12/19 it was -170, on 12/22 it was -230, and on 12/23 it was -175, with a weekly change of 35 [4] - **Styrene - Butadiene Basis**: On 12/17 it was 140, on 12/19 it was 230, on 12/22 it was 20, and on 12/23 it was 125, with a daily change of -15 [4] - **02 - 03 Spread**: On 12/17 it was -10, on 12/19 it was -25, on 12/22 it was -15, and on 12/23 it was -15, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -5 [4] - **03 - 04 Spread**: On 12/17 it was 0, on 12/19 it was -5, on 12/22 it was -10, and on 12/23 it was -15, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -15 [4] - **RU - BR Spread**: On 11/21 it was 4855, on 12/17 it was 4230, on 12/19 it was 4170, on 12/22 it was 3975, and on 12/23 it was 4115, with a daily change of 140 and a weekly change of -115 [4] - **NR - BR Spread**: On 11/21 it was 1900, on 12/17 it was 1410, on 12/19 it was 1340, on 12/22 it was 1125, and on 12/23 it was 1230, with a daily change of 105 and a weekly change of -180 [4] BR Spot Price and Profit - **Shandong Market Price**: On 11/21 it was 10450, on 12/17 it was 10950, on 12/19 it was 10850, on 12/22 it was 11000, and on 12/23 it was 11000, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - **Chuanhua Market Price**: On 11/21 it was 10350, on 12/17 it was 10950, on 12/19 it was 10800, on 12/22 it was 10900, and on 12/23 it was 10950, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **Qilu Factory Price**: On 11/21 it was 10700, on 12/17 it was 10900, on 12/19 it was 10900, on 12/22 it was 10900, and on 12/23 it was 10900, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR Northeast Asia**: On 11/21 it was 1350, on 12/17 it was 1350, on 12/19 it was 1350, on 12/22 it was 1350, and on 12/23 it was 1400, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - **CFR Southeast Asia**: On 11/21 it was 1640, on 12/17 it was 1600, on 12/19 it was 1600, on 12/22 it was 1600, and on 12/23 it was 1625, with a daily change of 25 [4] - **Spot Processing Profit**: On 11/21 it was 753, on 12/17 it was 498, on 12/22 it was 819, and on 12/23 it was 793, with a daily change of -26 [4] - **Import Profit**: On 11/21 it was -912, on 12/17 it was -297, on 12/19 it was -394, on 12/22 it was -237, and on 12/23 it was -634, with a daily change of -397 and a weekly change of -337 [4] - **Export Profit**: On 11/21 it was 1931, on 12/17 it was 1100, on 12/19 it was 1184, on 12/22 it was 1047, and on 12/23 it was 1223, with a daily change of 176 and a weekly change of 122 [4] BD Spot Price and Profit - **Shandong Market Price**: On 11/21 it was 7350, on 12/17 it was 8090, on 12/19 it was 7825, on 12/22 it was 7825, and on 12/23 it was 7850, with a weekly change of -240 [4] - **Jiangsu Market Price**: On 11/21 it was 7050, on 12/17 it was 7825, on 12/19 it was 7700, on 12/22 it was 7775, and on 12/23 it was 7625, with a daily change of -150 and a weekly change of -200 [4] - **Yangzi Factory Price**: On 11/21 it was 7200, on 12/17 it was 7800, on 12/19 it was 7800, on 12/22 it was 7800, and on 12/23 it was 7800, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR China**: On 11/21 it was 770, on 12/17 it was 870, on 12/19 it was 870, on 12/23 it was 930, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 60 [4] - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: On 11/21 it was -72, on 12/17 it was -41, on 12/19 it was -35, on 12/22 it was -41 [4] - **Carbon - Four Extraction Profit**: On 11/21 it was 285, on 12/17 it was 1118, on 12/19 it was 1134, on 12/22 it was 1062 [4] - **BD Spread**: On 11/21 it was -1764, on 12/17 it was -1059, on 12/19 it was -1254, on 12/22 it was -1179, and on 12/23 it was -1329, with a daily change of -150 and a weekly change of -270 [4] - **Import Profit**: On 11/21 it was 708, on 12/17 it was 750, on 12/19 it was 627, on 12/22 it was 269, and on 12/23 it was 80, with a daily change of -190 and a weekly change of -671 [4] - **Export Profit**: On 11/21 it was -1302, on 12/17 it was -2027, on 12/19 it was -1286, on 12/22 it was -1355, and on 12/23 it was -1225, with a daily change of 130 and a weekly change of 803 [4] - **Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit**: On 11/21 it was 1375, on 12/17 it was 1213, on 12/19 it was 1238, on 12/22 it was 1238, and on 12/23 it was 1213, with a daily change of -25 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **ABS Production Profit**: On 11/21 it was -301, on 12/17 it was -688 [4] - **SBS Production Profit**: On 11/21 it was -390, on 12/17 it was -425, on 12/19 it was -392, on 12/22 it was -392, and on 12/23 it was -425, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of 0 [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing have increased, while downstream factories are mainly digesting their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and overall outbound shipments are lower than expected. In terms of demand, last week tire companies adjusted production flexibly, some companies controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies was weak, entering the seasonal off - peak season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory climbed, and under production and sales pressure, some companies had production suspension or limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,885 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 146,529 lots, down 1,229 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,329 lots, down 1,663 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 38,999 lots, down 105 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 13,460 lots, up 1,166 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 88,730 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 735 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,952 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 2,065 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 58.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.31 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, up 35,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 12.96%, down 0.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.64%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.78%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.79%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]