证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 05 08 年 月 日 家用电器 两轮车系列之一：如何看待两轮车行业格局及未来发展？ 本篇报告聚焦国内电动两轮车市场，拟探讨以下几个问题：1）电动两轮 车行业特点是什么？2）行业格局如何演绎？3）电动两轮车品牌商利润率 能否提升？提升动力和提升幅度分别如何？ ➢ 行业特点：看似矛盾的头部化格局&低盈利现状。 国内电动两轮车呈头部化格局，2024 年 CR3 约 61%。其中龙头雅迪份额 约 26%。但同时，行业呈低盈利现状。雅迪、爱玛、新日、小牛和九号（定 位高端电动两轮车）2024 年实现毛利率 15%/18%/16%/15%/28%，净 利率 5%/9%/1%/-6%/8%，远低于格局集中度高的空调行业。我们认为 原因主要系：1）准入门槛较低：整车偏组装性质，行业竞争充分；2）供 需属性复杂：供给端原材料组成多单位成本高，需求端为代步基础功能溢 价能力偏弱；3）规模效应不强：生产端多 SKU 模式下规模效应较弱，龙 头毛利率和行业无明显差距。 ➢ 寡头竞争：渠道、产能&品牌为核心竞争要素，有望形成双寡头格局。 商业模式来看，我们认为渠道&品牌 ...

Group 1 - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is showing a headquarter concentration pattern, with the CR3 expected to reach approximately 61% by 2024, while simultaneously exhibiting low profitability [1] - Leading companies like Yadea, Aima, New Day, Niu, and Ninebot are projected to have gross margins of 15%, 18%, 16%, 15%, and 28% respectively, with net margins of 5%, 9%, 1%, -6%, and 8% [1] - The low profitability is attributed to low entry barriers, complex supply-demand characteristics, and weak scale effects in production [1] Group 2 - The core competitive elements in the market are channels, production capacity, and brand strength, which are expected to lead to a dual oligopoly structure [2] - Channels and production capacity enhance market share, while brand strength reinforces competitive advantages [2] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration due to stricter production standards and the ongoing exit of small enterprises [2] Group 3 - As of April 2025, the domestic electric two-wheeler ownership is expected to exceed 420 million units, with demand primarily driven by replacements [3] - The industry is projected to reach annual sales of 55 million units in 2023, catalyzed by new national standards [3] - Profitability improvements for brand manufacturers are anticipated to come mainly from market structure benefits, although the extent of improvement is expected to be limited [3]

电动两轮车经销商访谈：行业近况及市场展望 20250507 摘要 • 2025 年电动两轮车市场预计增长 10%-20%，受换购需求和新国标执行 推动，二三季度为旺季，或出现提前消费现象。 • 各品牌渠道发展差异显著：爱玛和小牛预计增长约 20%，而 9 号受益于产 品线扩展和渠道扩张，预期增长高达 80%。 • 消费者购车首要考虑因素是里程，其次是品牌、外观和价格。里程焦虑是 关键，长里程增加电池成本，影响定价。 • 上海以旧换新政策提供 500 元补贴，但流程繁琐、补贴力度小、资金回款 周期长，门店参与积极性不高，且前期已进行过两轮换购，置换需求受限。 • 新国标提升电动两轮车质量，预计使用寿命从 3-4 年延长至 5-6 年。高端 市场容量稳定，约占总销量的 10%，受消费降级影响较小。 • 9 号品牌通过推出 2000-3,000 元价位段产品，成功迎合消费降级趋势， 实现销量增长，并积极拓展年轻、高端、外卖及学生群体。 • 9 号和小牛在智能化方面领先，采用 4G/5G 模块，提供人机互联、 ABS、TCS 等高级功能，骑行体验更佳，但用户群体相对有限。 Q&A 请介绍一下您目前经营的电动两轮车品牌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Peak Forum on Lightweight Power Battery Technology aims to focus on lightweight battery technology and expand emerging application markets, highlighting the rapid growth of the lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [1][3]. Event Background and Highlights - The event will feature the authoritative release of the SPIR Lightweight Power Battery and Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Swap TOP Rankings, covering the top 20 lightweight power battery shipments in China and key segments in the battery market [3]. - The global two-wheeled vehicle battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese companies poised to capitalize on new opportunities due to industry chain integration advantages [3]. - The industry is facing challenges such as battery safety, market penetration, and cost optimization, which need urgent solutions [3]. - AI technology is accelerating the development and optimization of new battery technologies and processes, significantly improving research and development efficiency [3]. Event Organization - The event is organized by Qidian Lithium Battery, Qidian Sodium Battery, and Qidian Two-Wheeled Vehicle and Battery Swap, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4]. Conference Agenda - The agenda includes specialized sessions on high-rate and fast-charging battery technologies, lightweight electric vehicle battery technologies, and small-scale energy storage battery technologies, with discussions on development trends and applications [5][7]. Invited Companies - Notable companies invited to participate include major electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers and battery companies such as Yadea, Aima, and CATL, as well as equipment and materials suppliers [8]. Registration Information - The registration fee for the event is 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the 2025 China Lightweight Power Battery Industry White Paper [9].

24&25Q1 电动两轮车板块综述：受益供需合力拉动， 25Q1 表现靓丽 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 电动两轮车板块综述：受益供需合力 拉动，25Q1 表现靓丽 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 25Q ...

2025起点 轻型动力电池 技术 高峰 论坛 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 聚焦轻型电池技术 拓展新兴应用市场 时间： 7月10-11日 地点：江苏无锡 一、活动背景及亮点 二、活动组织架构 起点研究院（ SPIR）轻型动力电池及两轮车换电TOP排行榜权威发布（覆盖 中国轻型动力 电池出货量TOP20，中国中小储能电池出货量TOP20、无人机电池/电动工具电池/两轮车 电池关键细分环节出货量TOP10、锂电电动两轮车/两轮车换电运营商TOP10 等），为行 业树立标杆，为投资及采购决策者提供参考； 海内外轻型动力及中小储能市场高速增长，低空飞行、移动电动工具、人形/智能机器人、 智能家居、智慧储能等热门应用场景进入高速发展期，新一轮增量市场推动电池技术迭代革 新； 政策支持、即时配送需求及技术升级等主要驱动力影响下，全球两轮车换电市场高速增长， 基于产业链整合优势，中国企业将迎来新一轮布局风口，电池安全、下沉市场覆盖及成本优 化等挑战急需解决； 上下游企业加速研发高安全、高倍率、高能量密度、长循环寿命、低成本、高低温等细分性 能优势电池产品； AI技术加速驱动固态、钠电、全极耳等新电池技术与工艺体系的研发 ...

2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 聚焦轻型电池技术 拓展新兴应用市场 时间： 7月10-11日 地点：江苏无锡 一、活动背景及亮点 二、活动组织架构 起点研究院（ SPIR）轻型动力电池及两轮车换电TOP排行榜权威发布（覆盖 中国轻型动力 电池出货量TOP20，中国中小储能电池出货量TOP20、无人机电池/电动工具电池/两轮车 电池关键细分环节出货量TOP10、锂电电动两轮车/两轮车换电运营商TOP10 等），为行 业树立标杆，为投资及采购决策者提供参考； 海内外轻型动力及中小储能市场高速增长，低空飞行、移动电动工具、人形/智能机器人、 智能家居、智慧储能等热门应用场景进入高速发展期，新一轮增量市场推动电池技术迭代革 新； 政策支持、即时配送需求及技术升级等主要驱动力影响下，全球两轮车换电市场高速增长， 基于产业链整合优势，中国企业将迎来新一轮布局风口，电池安全、下沉市场覆盖及成本优 化等挑战急需解决； 上下游企业加速研发高安全、高倍率、高能量密度、长循环寿命、低成本、高低温等细分性 能优势电池产品； AI技术加速驱动固态、钠电、全极耳等新电池技术与工艺体系的研发优化，推动研发效率大 幅度提升，新技术新工艺在 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be optimistic based on the growth metrics and product developments mentioned. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1][2]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is a key driver of growth, with sales volume reaching 1.004 million units, a 140.8% increase year-on-year, and revenue from this segment accounting for 56% of total revenue [2][3]. - The company is expected to launch multiple new products across various categories, including electric two-wheelers and all-terrain vehicles, which are anticipated to further enhance market presence and customer base [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.7%, with a notable reduction in expense ratios across sales, management, and R&D, contributing to improved profitability [3]. - The company forecasts a steady increase in total revenue from 10.222 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.106 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.1% [6]. Product Development - The company is set to introduce new models targeting specific consumer segments, such as the "Q" series for female consumers and upgraded smart driving series, which are expected to attract a broader customer base [4]. - The Navimow robotic lawnmower is highlighted as a leading product in its category, with significant market potential and a strong brand presence [2][5]. Market Outlook - The overall market outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by product innovation and expanding market share in the electric two-wheeler and robotic lawnmower segments [2][4].

聚焦轻型电池技术 拓展新兴应用市场 时间： 7月10-11日 地点：江苏无锡 一、活动背景及亮点 二、活动组织架构 起点研究院（ SPIR）轻型动力电池及两轮车换电TOP排行榜权威发布（覆盖 中国轻型动力 电池出货量TOP20，中国中小储能电池出货量TOP20、无人机电池/电动工具电池/两轮车 电池关键细分环节出货量TOP10、锂电电动两轮车/两轮车换电运营商TOP10 等），为行 业树立标杆，为投资及采购决策者提供参考； 海内外轻型动力及中小储能市场高速增长，低空飞行、移动电动工具、人形/智能机器人、 智能家居、智慧储能等热门应用场景进入高速发展期，新一轮增量市场推动电池技术迭代革 新； 政策支持、即时配送需求及技术升级等主要驱动力影响下，全球两轮车换电市场高速增长， 基于产业链整合优势，中国企业将迎来新一轮布局风口，电池安全、下沉市场覆盖及成本优 化等挑战急需解决； 上下游企业加速研发高安全、高倍率、高能量密度、长循环寿命、低成本、高低温等细分性 能优势电池产品； AI技术加速驱动固态、钠电、全极耳等新电池技术与工艺体系的研发优化，推动研发效率大 幅度提升，新技术新工艺在轻型动力电池领域加速应用； 全行业 ...

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]