Core Insights - The sales volume of products related to the trade-in program is expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan by 2025, benefiting over 360 million people [1] Group 1: Trade-in Program Impact - By 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles will be traded in, along with more than 129 million home appliances, 91 million digital products, 12 million home renovation items, and 1.25 million electric bicycles [1] - The trade-in program is projected to contribute over 1 percentage point to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, which increased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to November [1] Group 2: Industry Upgrades - Nearly 60% of traded-in vehicles will be new energy vehicles, with the retail market share of new energy passenger cars exceeding 50% for nine consecutive months, reaching 59.4% in November [1] - Over 90% of home appliances traded in will be first-class energy efficiency products, indicating a significant upgrade in product quality [1] - Sales of communication equipment have maintained growth for 11 consecutive months [1] Group 3: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The volume of scrapped vehicles is expected to increase by 24.5% year-on-year by 2025, leading to the recycling of approximately 9.6 million tons of steel and 1.3 million tons of non-ferrous metals [1] - The program is anticipated to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 24.5 million tons, promoting a green economic transition [1]

Group 1: Economic Predictions - Trump's average tariff levels are expected to decrease by the end of the year due to various pressures, including stock market declines and rising consumer prices [2] - Global central banks, excluding Japan, are likely to continue lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve potentially leading this trend [5] - The price of gold is predicted to exceed $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions [7] Group 2: Political Landscape - Ukrainian President Zelensky is not expected to be forced to abandon the Donbas region as part of any peace agreement, due to military and political risks [3] - In the U.S., the Democratic Party is predicted to regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, which would allow them to block Trump's agenda [12] - In the Middle East, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is unlikely without a clear path to Palestinian statehood, as emphasized by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [13] Group 3: Technology and Market Trends - The AI bubble is anticipated to burst in 2026, with investors becoming more critical of tech giants, although larger diversified companies may weather the storm better than smaller firms [4] - Quantum computers are not expected to be commercially viable by 2026, but significant progress is being made in the field [8] - Tesla's market share is projected to continue declining in the U.S., EU, and China, as competition increases and Musk focuses on AI investments rather than traditional automotive business [9] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - An increase in private credit defaults is expected, as higher interest rates challenge companies that borrowed heavily during low-rate periods [6] - The emergence of household robots is anticipated, although their functionality will be limited and they will primarily target affluent early adopters [10]

美方在2025年启动新一轮关税举措时，对中国经济的韧性和反制能力存在严重低估。这种误判源于长期积累的傲慢心态，认为通过经济压力就能迫使中国让 步。 特朗普团队原以为中国依赖美国市场，会迅速寻求豁免，但中国通过多元化出口和产业链优化，早已经筑牢防线。 贸易摩擦升级的根源在于美方单边主义做法。4月2日，美方针对全球多国征收对等税率，对中国商品税率达34%，叠加前期税负，总水平升至54%。 这一举动旨在通过极限施压，迫使贸易伙伴主动谈判。美方官员当时公开表示，期待各国克制回应，以避免税率进一步攀升。 这种预判基于过去经验，认为中国会成为首批妥协对象。 中国于次日即4月3日，对美全线产品征收34%税率。这种及时反制显示出中国预案的完备性和战略定力，与美方预留的生效缓冲期形成鲜明对比。 美方初期反应仍停留在威胁层面。 特朗普警告，如果中国不在4月8日前撤销税率，美方将额外征收50%，并中止双边对话，转向其他国家。这种做法试图制造中国被孤立的印象，但忽略了中 国在亚洲和新兴市场的贸易网络。 中国于4月10日将税率提升至84%，并将12家美企纳入出口管制名单。 这种升级反制不仅覆盖范围更广，还针对美方高科技领域，体现了中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aima Technology announced the approval of several proposals, including the expected daily related transactions for the year 2026 by the sixth board of directors' fifth meeting [2] Group 1 - Aima Technology's board meeting approved the proposal regarding expected daily related transactions for 2026 [2]

每经记者｜郑雨航 每经编辑｜段炼 高涵 ① 【三大期指齐涨】道指期货涨0.02%、标普500指数期货涨0.03%、纳指期货涨0.04%。 ④ 【Meta收购Manus，交易金额或超20亿美元】12月30日，人工智能初创公司Manus发布消息称，Manus将加入Meta，开启新一轮探索。Manus首席执行 官肖弘表示，该交易将不改变Manus运作方式和决策机制。据媒体报道，Meta即将完成对Manus的收购，交易金额超过20亿美元。截至发稿，Meta盘前跌 0.22%。 ⑤ 【特斯拉全球第900万辆电动车在上海超级工厂下线】特斯拉官方微博宣布，12月30日，特斯拉全球第900万辆电动车在上海超级工厂下线；下线车辆 是一台Model Y。截至发稿，特斯拉盘前涨1.02%。 ⑥ 【法拉第未来涨近2%】法拉第未来涨近2%。消息面上，12月30日，法拉第未来宣布，将于2026年2月13日召开特别股东大会。公司呼吁股东对所有提 案投赞成票。公司更名提案方面，寻求股东批准对公司章程的修订，将公司名称从Faraday Future Intelligent Electric变更为Faraday Future AI Electr ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has undergone a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and long-term high-return industries with mismatched valuations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current A-share market is experiencing active trading volumes and turnover rates, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, presenting both opportunities and risks. Some stocks are becoming expensive, while others, particularly in real estate and domestic demand, remain undervalued [3]. - The investment strategy for equities should focus on safety margins and certainty, avoiding blind speculation on volatility. The U.S. economy is not performing well, and potential monetary easing could occur in response to the upcoming mid-term elections, which may influence domestic fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Four key investment opportunities for 2026 are highlighted: 1. Long-term focus on globally competitive manufacturing leaders, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery. Observations from Southeast Asia indicate a significant gap in infrastructure and supply chains compared to China, reinforcing confidence in China's manufacturing competitiveness [5]. 2. Industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry, are expected to enhance their global market positions and profitability [5]. 3. Sectors with low valuations and potential for substantial fundamental changes, such as chemicals, are noted for their past performance shifts, similar to coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals in previous years [6]. 4. Long-term high-return industries with severe valuation mismatches, including airport and airline services, insurance, and non-liquor food sectors, are highlighted for their high return on equity (ROE) despite low stock attention [6]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include persistent inflation and sector-specific risks. The undervaluation of the RMB may pressure export industries, and inflation could pose significant risks to the stock market in the latter half of the year. Additionally, long-term risks associated with AI, including its impact on labor and technological competition, warrant attention [6].

本文字数：2703，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 韦薇 本周，白银、黄金纷纷跳水，跌幅分别高达约7%和4%。在芝商所（CME）官宣上调白银期货保证 金的决定后，贵金属市场的投机情绪遭遇重挫。 截至上周，黄金全年"仅"上涨约70%，白银涨幅则高达约150%，其他贵金属（铂金、钯金）的累 计涨幅均超过100%。白银的疯狂行情尤其令人震惊，金银比一度从2020年的高点120跌落至目前 的60附近，"逼空"是主因。 "11月开始，白银1个月租赁利息5.9%，年化近70%，与其说是基本面驱动，白银的新高是逼空行 情，空头结局很惨。"全球宏观基金经理袁玉玮对第一财经表示，"市场担心美国可能对白银征收关 税，尤其是在白银被美国地质调查局列入关键矿产清单后，引发了大规模的囤货行为。大量白银流入 纽约与Comex挂钩的金库，导致作为全球主要现货交易中心的伦敦库存枯竭。" 但在暴力上涨后，获利了结行情也在展开。接受第一财经采访的国内外基金经理和交易员提及， 2026年仍有望是商品大年，金、银价格仍将居于高位，只是波动将加剧，尤其是白银。 白银"逼空"行情暂歇 2025.12. 30 白银在2025年的逆袭令人始料未及， ...

展望2026年，中国资产具备全球相对配置吸引力，一方面中国股票尤其部分港股相对便宜，另一方 面当前全球整体低配中国，随着海外新一轮周期的启动，海外资金大概率会溢出到A股、港股优质股 票。同时，朱红裕也指出，居民风险偏好有待长期机制解决。过去一段时间老百姓的风险偏好没有明 显增加，数据显示权益方面增加的主要是波动相对较小的权益或是"固收+"，未来随着地产逐渐企 稳，有可能逐渐增加配置波动相对较大的权益资产。 日前，招商基金首席投资官朱红裕在红动中国2026财富前瞻论坛上发表了《预期差下的2026年权益 市场投资展望》的主题演讲。朱红裕认为，A股市场经过一轮周期性上涨，仍有部分板块与风格较为 低估，中国资产2026年具备全球配置吸引力，并重点关注四大主线机遇——具备全球竞争力的制造 业龙头、未来供需格局趋于改善的行业龙头、估值处于底部且基本面可能有较高变化的行业、长期盈 利回报较高且估值不匹配的行业龙头。 2026权益投资更注重安全边际与确定性 朱红裕指出，当前A股市场经过一轮周期性上涨后，部分板块与风格进入中后段。数据显示，当前A 股市场成交量和换手率比较活跃，但是现在这一轮行情中IPO发行、减持比较克制，因此 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.35%, and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq falling by 0.51% and 0.50% respectively [1][2]. Market Structure and Liquidity - The current trading day is in the last week of 2025, with most institutional traders and quantitative fund managers on holiday, leading to extremely low trading volumes [3]. - This liquidity vacuum has resulted in a technical-driven sell-off, where the lack of buyers during a downturn exacerbates price declines, typically not leading to a deep bear market [3]. Tesla's Demand Concerns - Tesla led the decline among the tech giants, with a drop of over 3% due to a significant reduction in a contract with its South Korean supplier L&F, which saw a 99% cut from 3.83 trillion KRW to just 973 million KRW [4][6]. - This drastic order revision highlights challenges in the Cybertruck project and raises concerns about slowing global electric vehicle demand and changes in government subsidy policies [6]. Silver and Gold Market Impact - Silver experienced a sharp decline of over 8%, while gold also fell from historical highs, attributed to liquidity management issues and profit-taking by institutions ahead of year-end settlements [10]. - The sell-off in precious metals triggered forced liquidations in the stock market, particularly affecting tech stocks, thereby increasing the downward pressure on U.S. equities [10]. Microsoft’s Strategic Shift - Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to design custom AI chips, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia and enhance supply chain autonomy [11]. - This move indicates a significant shift in the semiconductor industry, potentially reshaping profit distribution by moving towards more customized solutions [11]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Optimism in the market has reached unprecedented levels, with no analysts predicting a decline in the stock market for 2026, suggesting a potential record for consecutive annual gains [14][19]. - Morgan Stanley has shifted from a pessimistic outlook to predicting the S&P 500 could rise to 7500 points, driven by resilient economic growth and declining inflation [19][20]. Risks and Concerns - Despite the prevailing optimism, some analysts express caution regarding the lack of dissenting opinions in market predictions, which could indicate an impending market correction [21]. - Key risks identified include the possibility of prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, potential tariff actions affecting supply chains, and corporate executives possibly lowering earnings forecasts after strong growth [21].

江苏省委经济工作会议指出，要根据中央经济工作会议部署的重点任务，结合我省推动高质量发展的实 际，抓住关键、纲举目张地做好明年工作。在中央经济工作会议确定的明年经济工作重点任务中，"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"是第一条任务，明确提出内需主导并把国内市场建设放在极其重要的 位置上。这表明在新的复杂的国内外政治经济形势下，扩大内需问题直接决定了国内经济可循环的程度 和力度，决定了内需在内循环主导外循环新发展格局形成中的地位和重要性。 习近平总书记在《扩大内需是战略之举》一文中指出，"总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾"。 中央经济工作会议强调，我国当前"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"。这些重要判断，既反映出扩大内需是一项 长期而艰巨的任务，也充分凸显了当前扩大有效需求、增强内循环的重要性和紧迫性。据此，省委经济 工作会议指出，要在深入挖掘内需潜力上下功夫，深入实施提振消费专项行动，谋划实施一批牵引性强 的重大项目。 从理论上看，扩大内需是指扩大国内有效需求，包括国内消费者对商品服务的有货币支付能力的需求和 各类主体对生产资料的有货币支付能力的投资需求两个部分。扩大国内有效需求对江苏经济的重要性， 是江苏经济运行中 ...