Core Insights - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangxi Futures Exchange meets the urgent demand for risk management tools in the industry, marking an expansion of the exchange's new energy metal sector [1][5] Price Volatility - Platinum and palladium prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with annual price volatility exceeding 20% over the past five years. For instance, platinum prices dropped to a five-year low of 154.04 yuan per gram in early 2020, followed by a recovery to an average of 228.97 yuan per gram in 2024 [2] - Palladium prices also showed high volatility, peaking at 761 yuan per gram in early 2022 and averaging 260.49 yuan per gram in 2024. The price fluctuations for palladium from 2020 to 2024 were 51.77%, 83.73%, 77.39%, 87.40%, and 40.79% respectively [2] Supply Chain Challenges - Global supply constraints, particularly due to issues in South Africa's electricity supply and mining safety incidents, have led to a tight supply of platinum and palladium despite price declines. This has increased the urgency for domestic enterprises to adopt more mature market mechanisms for price stabilization [3] Risk Management Needs - Companies like Jinchuan Group, which produce platinum and palladium, face significant operational impacts due to price volatility and lack of effective risk management tools. The absence of authoritative pricing mechanisms complicates their ability to make informed operational decisions [4] - The introduction of futures contracts is expected to provide transparent and fair pricing, filling the gap in risk management tools for the industry [5] Market Impact - The listing of platinum and palladium futures is anticipated to enhance price discovery and hedging capabilities, allowing Chinese enterprises to engage in transactions in RMB and attract international market participants [5][6] - The futures market is expected to improve the operational efficiency of enterprises by allowing them to manage price risks more effectively, thus stabilizing the domestic industrial chain [6] Industry Preparedness - Market participants are preparing for the launch of platinum and palladium futures by familiarizing themselves with contract rules and risk management mechanisms. This includes outreach efforts to educate industry players on the benefits of these new financial instruments [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with current trading showing a slight increase from the previous session [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On November 24, LME copper opened at $10,770 per ton and is currently at $10,798.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a peak at $10,804 per ton and a low of $10,765 per ton [1] - On November 21, LME copper had an opening price of $10,700, a closing price of $10,778, a highest price of $10,798.5, and a lowest price of $10,607.5, resulting in a 0.86% increase [1] Group 2: Copper Market Updates - As of November 21, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 8.02, with an import loss of -489.97 yuan per ton, slightly worsening from -488.26 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warrants totaled 148,400 tons, with 6,625 tons canceled, resulting in a net decrease of 2,850 tons [1] - Total copper inventory at LME stands at 155,025 tons, down by 2,900 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel futures warrants are at 33,785 tons, showing a decrease of 294 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to demand concerns, with investors awaiting delayed U.S. economic data to assess the health of the global economy [1] Group 1: Copper Market - LME three-month copper dropped by 0.90% to $10,857 per ton, but has risen 1.31% for the week [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract for December closed down by 430 yuan or 0.49% at 86,900 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported stable economic performance in October, with ongoing transformation and growth of new economic drivers [1] - However, external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures pose challenges to stable economic operation [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals also experienced declines: - Shanghai aluminum for January fell by 0.68% to 21,840 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai lead for December decreased by 1.05% to 17,495 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai zinc dropped by 1.02% to 22,425 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.48% to 117,080 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 1.77% to 291,450 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 1.45% to $2,854.50 per ton [2] - LME zinc dropped by 1.42% to $3,011.50 per ton [2] - LME lead decreased by 0.38% to $2,070 per ton [2] - LME nickel fell by 1.01% to $14,830 per ton [2] - LME tin decreased by 1% to $36,860 per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has suspended all non-USD denominated metal options trading, which is seen as a move to reinforce the dominance of the USD in global commodity pricing and to counter the growing internationalization of the RMB [1][18]. Group 1 - The LME's official reason for the suspension is the low trading volume of non-USD contracts, which has led to higher maintenance costs than benefits [1]. - Despite the LME's claims, RMB-denominated metal futures trading has been significantly increasing, with daily trading volume for copper futures rising from over 300,000 contracts in 2024 to nearly 500,000 contracts in the first half of 2025, marking a nearly threefold increase over three years [1]. - The RMB's share in long-term metal transactions in regions like the Middle East and Africa has surpassed 30% [1]. Group 2 - The urgency from the U.S. to act against RMB internationalization stems from three main factors: the signing of RMB settlement agreements for iron ore with Australia, the successful issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds with a high subscription rate, and the upcoming shift in U.S. monetary policy towards quantitative easing [2][14]. - The issuance of U.S. sovereign bonds saw a subscription rate of 30 times the issuance amount, indicating strong international investor confidence [2][3]. Group 3 - The LME's actions are perceived as a direct challenge to the RMB's growing influence in global commodity pricing, aiming to reclaim USD's pricing power in key minerals [18]. - The potential emergence of two parallel pricing systems—one centered around the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the other around U.S. exchanges—could disrupt existing trade agreements, particularly those using RMB for settlement [20][21]. Group 4 - The U.S. strategy to limit RMB transactions could lead to a situation where countries like Australia reconsider their RMB settlement agreements if they become unprofitable due to rising USD-denominated prices [21][22]. - The ongoing "currency war" suggests that while the RMB may not immediately replace the USD, it will not be completely overshadowed by it either, leading to a more diversified global currency landscape [30]. Group 5 - The competition for pricing power will likely enhance the strategic position and valuation of related sectors in the A-share market, as more trading may shift to the Shanghai Futures Exchange [31]. - The focus on critical mineral supply chain security will increase attention on China's dominance in rare earths, presenting potential investment opportunities [32]. - The anticipated liquidity influx from U.S. monetary policy changes could alter market dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for investors [32].

Group 1 - LME copper futures rose by $31, closing at $10,827 per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures increased by $5, closing at $2,874 per ton [1] - LME zinc futures fell by $14, closing at $3,066 per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - **Aluminum**: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - **Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling**: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - **Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on November 7, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Nickel increased by 0.22%, stainless steel rose by 0.16%, zinc went up by 0.15%, tin gained 0.11%, and aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.05% [1]. - In contrast, alumina decreased by 0.22%, lead fell by 0.23%, and copper dropped by 0.33% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The black metal futures market in China experienced a decline across all major products on November 5, with rebar futures dropping over 1% [1] Price Movements - As of November 5, the main futures prices are as follows: - Iron ore down 0.51% to 774.00 CNY/ton - Rebar down 1.21% to 3024.00 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled coil down 0.88% to 3252.00 CNY/ton - Stainless steel down 0.24% to 12540.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on November 5: - Rebar: Opened at 3046.00, closed at 3061.00 - Iron ore: Opened at 775.00, closed at 778.00 - Stainless steel: Opened at 12555.00, closed at 12570.00 - Hot-rolled coil: Opened at 3265.00, closed at 3281.00 [2] Warehouse Inventory Data - As of November 4, warehouse inventory data shows: - Rebar futures warehouse receipts at 121,242 tons, down 1,798 tons from the previous trading day - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts at 100,301 tons, up 1,764 tons from the previous trading day - Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts at 73,300 tons, down 182 tons from the previous trading day - Manganese silicon futures receipts increased by 400 to 13,129 contracts - Silicon iron futures receipts increased by 1,335 to 9,159 contracts [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various products indicate the following: - Rebar: Spot price at 3162.66 CNY, futures price at 3061, basis at 101 with a basis rate of 3.19% - Hot-rolled coil: Spot price at 3346.67 CNY, futures price at 3281, basis at 65 with a basis rate of 1.94% - Stainless steel: Spot price at 12816.7 CNY, futures price at 12570, basis at 246 with a basis rate of 1.92% - Iron ore: Spot price at 801.89 CNY, futures price at 778, basis at 23 with a basis rate of 2.87% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of November 1, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.61% [1] - Shanghai zinc increased by 0.47% [1] - Shanghai tin gained 0.44% [1] - Shanghai nickel saw a slight increase of 0.07% [1] - Shanghai copper decreased by 0.09% [1] - Shanghai lead fell by 0.26% [1] - Stainless steel dropped by 0.32% [1] - Aluminum oxide declined by 1.49% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 29, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,852, up 1.00%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5,600, up 20 yuan/ton. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has risen for 4 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 63,000 tons, and the demand for hot metal is oscillating at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 115 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October is 5,820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On October 29, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,594, up 0.68%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,260. The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to remove obstacles to the construction of a unified national market. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production is mostly normal, delivering previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. The semi - coke price is stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 460 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价: 5,852.00 yuan/ton, up 62.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价: 5,594.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量: 519,582.00 hands, down 9,222.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量: 331,706.00 hands, down 8,921.00 hands [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓: - 67,334.00 hands, down 8,729.00 hands; 硅铁前20名净持仓: - 32,728.00 hands, down 3,589.00 hands [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差: 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF5 - 1月合约价差: 88.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单: 0.00, down 38,603.00; SF仓单: 0.00, down 8,675.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,641.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; SF主力合约基差: - 334.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM主力合约基差: - 272.00 yuan/ton, down 62.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block, Tianjin Port: 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.364 million tons, down 93,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 43.04%, down 0.24%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.56%, up 0.08% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 207,410.00 tons, down 1,400.00 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 114,100.00 tons, up 1,300.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 293,000.00 tons, up 30,500.00 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 66,560.00 tons, down 2,520.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 15.93, up 0.95; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 15.52, up 0.85 [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 122,683.00 tons, up 1,570.00 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,935.90 tons, up 363.38 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84.73%, up 0.48%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. - Crude steel production: 7.34901 million tons, down 387,840 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to promote the modernization of governance in megacities, accelerate the integration of urban agglomerations and the synchronization of metropolitan areas, optimize the urban scale structure, and promote the coordinated development of large, medium, small cities and small towns [2]. - It also proposes to remove obstacles to the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition, maintain reasonable investment growth, increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihood, and establish a unified urban - rural construction land market, a well - functioning capital market, a smooth - flowing labor market, and an efficient technology transformation market [2]. - Mongolia's internal political struggle has no impact on coal imports from Mongolia. The number of customs - cleared vehicles at the three major ports has returned to a high level this week [2]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the floating value of coking coal long - term contract linkage between steel and coal in October 2025 increased by 43 yuan/ton compared with September 2025, a 3.1% increase [2].