工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35860 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.93%，持 仓增仓 2952 手至 73488 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 640 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7865 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.75%，持仓 增仓 19275 手至 19.28 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9310 元/吨，较上一 交易日下调 102 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8100 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 205 元/吨。新疆大厂增产引发市场悲观预期，需求缺乏反转驱动叠 加期货持续增仓下压，可延续防御性空头策为主。多晶硅存在近端交割短 缺和需求急速流失的结构性矛盾。挤仓压力结束后基本面转弱逻辑再度回 归，主力对标交割基准价，短期大涨无力，可反弹布空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/5/20 | 20 ...

Group 1: Metal Market Overview - LME copper experienced a decline of 1.2%, settling at $9,406 per ton, while SHFE copper dropped 0.74% to 77,450 CNY per ton, with domestic import profits slightly positive [1] - LME nickel fell by 0.38% to $15,630 per ton, and SHFE nickel decreased by 0.35% to 123,640 CNY per ton, with LME inventory down by 300 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts down by 416 tons [1] - Aluminum and alumina markets showed weakness, with alumina at 2,700 CNY per ton (down 0.22%) and SHFE aluminum at 19,340 CNY per ton (down 1.55%), indicating a potential oversupply situation [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side for nickel iron shows signs of production cuts, while demand remains under pressure, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1] - The silicon market is also experiencing weakness, with polysilicon at 35,520 CNY per ton (down 3.14%) and industrial silicon at 8,290 CNY per ton (down 0.96%), as traders push for lower prices ahead of the holiday [1] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.99% to 64,160 CNY per ton, with spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate also declining, indicating ongoing inventory accumulation despite some demand replenishment [1]

LME金属市场涨跌互现，特朗普"神秘预告"再现，能否为金属市场带来新的转机？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].

金十期货4月28日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属注册及注销仓单如下： 1. 铜注册仓单132025吨，注销仓单70775吨，减少6475吨。 2. 铝注册仓单250875吨，注销仓单168700吨，减少2000吨。 3. 镍注册仓单177924吨，注销仓单23502吨，增加1644吨。 4. 锌注册仓单149800吨，注销仓单29525吨，减少50吨。 5. 铅注册仓单116625吨，注销仓单154400吨，减少3050吨。 6. 锡注册仓单2415吨，注销仓单430吨，增加45吨。 LME注册及注销仓单日报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to have a small increase in the short - term and remain at a high level in the medium - term due to low inventory and a positive automotive market [1]. - Steel prices are expected to decline gradually in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term because of high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, small increase with a running range of 19800 - 20100; medium - term, high - level operation in the range of 19500 - 21500 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2505 - P - 19500 and hold until maturity [1]. - **Core Logic**: As of April 21, 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.2 million tons, down 1.60 million tons from last week and lower than the 80.6 million tons of the same period last year, at a 5 - year low. From January to March, automobile production and sales increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Steel) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, gradual decline; medium - term, under pressure [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold call option RB2510 - C - 3450 of rebar and hold the purchased in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 of rebar [2]. - **Core Logic**: - **Raw Material Inventory**: Total 45 - port iron ore inventory this week was 14181.41 million tons, down 10.04 million tons week - on - week. Low - grade tradable port iron ore inventory is at a 5 - year high, and 6000 million tons of iron ore from Guinea's Simandou iron ore mining area may enter the market this year. Sample mine coking coal inventory was 333.34 million tons, down 0.65% week - on - week and up 7.05% year - on - year. Coal washing plant coking coal inventory was 181.33 million tons, down 6.03% week - on - week and down 2.45% year - on - year, still at a 5 - year high [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall steel downstream demand is average. Building material demand drags down the consumption of five major steel products, which is weaker than in previous years. Construction project funds are in short supply, and construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. This week, rebar consumption was 259.94 million tons, down 5.07% week - on - week and 9.74% year - on - year. Consumption of five major steel products was 926.25 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week and 3.30% year - on - year. The impact of US tariff hikes on global consumption has not fully materialized, and relevant downstream industry demand support policies are yet to be introduced [4].

LME注册及注销仓单日报 1. 铜注册仓单127425吨，注销仓单77825吨，减少7625吨。 2. 铝注册仓单252075吨，注销仓单173525吨，减少6100吨。 3. 镍注册仓单184506吨，注销仓单19746吨，减少3318吨。 4. 锌注册仓单155100吨，注销仓单29925吨，减少6475吨。 5. 铅注册仓单163675吨，注销仓单113400吨，减少7250吨。 6. 锡注册仓单2440吨，注销仓单390吨，减少15吨。 金十期货4月23日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属注册及注销仓单如下： ...