Core Insights - DraftKings has made a significant move into the prediction market by acquiring Railbird Technologies Inc., a federally regulated trading platform, in response to emerging competitive threats [1][3] - Following the announcement, DraftKings' stock price rose by 8.3% in after-hours trading, indicating positive investor sentiment towards the acquisition [1] - The acquisition positions DraftKings as one of the first sports betting companies to offer federally regulated event contracts, but it also introduces regulatory challenges as competition intensifies in the prediction market [2][3] Strategic Shift - The acquisition represents a strategic shift from a defensive to an offensive approach for DraftKings, allowing the company to counter competitors and expand its market reach into states where traditional sports betting is prohibited [4] - Analysts believe that this strategic announcement should reassure investors who have been concerned about the impact of the prediction market on DraftKings' stock price [4] New Business Ventures and Regulatory Challenges - DraftKings plans to launch "DraftKings Predictions" on its mobile app, enabling users to trade contracts related to financial, cultural, and entertainment outcomes [5] - The company has not yet decided whether to offer contracts related to sports events, reflecting potential regulatory resistance from state gaming regulators [5] Blurring Lines Between Finance and Gambling - The acquisition occurs at a time when the boundaries between Wall Street and the gambling industry are increasingly blurred, with financial competitors like CME Group exploring entry into the gambling market [6] - The competition highlights the significant commercial potential of prediction markets and the tension between federal and state regulatory authorities, which may reshape the landscape of gambling and financial derivatives [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market does not have a basis for continuous adjustment, and the trend is bullish. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure during the volatile period. The option side should focus on selling options to increase income, and the short-term bond market remains cautious [1][2][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views a. Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened higher and then fluctuated. The easing of trade frictions boosted market sentiment, but there are still variables. The trading volume remained low, with a full-day turnover of 1.75 trillion yuan, and the futures market showed a trend of reducing positions. Defensive stocks led the rise, indicating a conservative sentiment among funds. In the future, the impact of trade events on A-shares will decrease. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure, allocating dividend + IM long positions [1][6]. b. Stock Index Options - The overall market turnover of each option variety decreased by 25.57%, and the liquidity fell below 10 billion again. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 1.65%, and the sentiment indicator did not form a unilateral trend, indicating a slow - fluctuating market. It is recommended to focus on selling options to increase income [1][6][7]. c. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The decline was due to the possible weakening of the tariff war expectation and the strong performance of the stock market. The economic data in September and the third quarter were in line with expectations, having limited impact on the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be greatly affected by policy factors and should remain cautious. It is recommended to adopt a trend strategy of being cautiously volatile, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, basis widening, and the curve may remain steep [2][7][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China announced a series of economic data, including the unchanged LPR rates, a decline in the year - to - date growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment in September, an increase in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in September, and the unchanged year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors from the night session on October 28, 2025. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on the 20th. China's economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, faster than the same period last year. IBM and Groq established a strategic partnership [11][12]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [3][81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [4][82]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [9]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.46%, closing at 4.747; the CSI 300 Index had a weekly decline of 0.44%, closing at 4501.92; the CSI 1000 Index had a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 7438.19; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.26%, closing at 7.261; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.24%, closing at 2.903; the ChiNext ETF had a weekly increase of 2.24%, closing at 3.062; the Shenzhen 100ETF had a weekly increase of 1.85%, closing at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index had a weekly decline of 1.98%, closing at 2909.74; the STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.78%, closing at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.90%, closing at 1.40 [17]. 3.1.3 Futures Basis and Monthly Spreads - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have declined, indicating a decrease in the market's short - term risk preference for IC and IM [23]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 113.82, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 78.41; the open - interest PCR was 71.82, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 70.73. The trading volume PCR of SSE 300ETF options was 153.61, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 110.31; the open - interest PCR was 110.15, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 106.38. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 300ETF options was 73.47, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 72.84; the open - interest PCR was 98.99, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 92.75. The trading volume PCR of CSI 300 Index options was 64.59, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 67.07; the open - interest PCR was 74.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 81.48. The trading volume PCR of CSI 1000 Index options was 85.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.96; the open - interest PCR was 93.89, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 110.83. The trading volume PCR of SSE CSI 500ETF options was 139.83, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 102.40; the open - interest PCR was 133.60, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 130.18. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options was 143.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 94.41; the open - interest PCR was 83.96, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 84.33. The trading volume PCR of ChiNext ETF options was 89.29, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 86.21; the open - interest PCR was 134.79, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 134.46. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 410.60, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 126.21; the open - interest PCR was 127.97, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 121.02. The trading volume PCR of SSE 50 Index options was 67.73, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 56.08; the open - interest PCR was 60.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 60.46. The trading volume PCR of STAR 50ETF options was 118.88, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 103.93; the open - interest PCR was 107.09, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 107.32. The trading volume PCR of E Fund STAR 50ETF options was 83.92, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.17; the open - interest PCR was 93.29, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 91.94 [34]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in October 2025 was 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.73%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 300ETF options in October 2025 was 17.48%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.28%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 300ETF options in October 2025 was 18.41%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 300 Index options in October 2025 was 17.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 1000 Index options in October 2025 was 23.62%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.22%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.75%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of ChiNext ETF options in October 2025 was 37.73%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 37.69%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 100ETF options in October 2025 was 23.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.08%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50 Index options in October 2025 was 17.53%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 44.27%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.44%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of E Fund STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 43.69%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.55% [54]. 3.3 Conclusion - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [82].

Core Insights - In South Korea, some investors are actively betting on leveraged VIX investments to hedge their large U.S. stock holdings or seek new speculative opportunities [1] - The 2x long VIX futures ETF has attracted approximately $130 million in inflows this year, aiming to achieve double the returns of the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX futures [1] - This ETF has become one of the most popular U.S. stock ETFs among Korean investors, ranking seventh in purchase volume in July [1] - The new inflows account for about 20% of the global inflows into this ETF [1] - Amid years of enthusiasm for large tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, many Korean investors are now preparing for potential market sell-offs as U.S. stock valuations approach historical highs, with discussions about "bubbles" rising on social media [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the bond market declined due to disturbances. The short - term trend of the bond market is expected to be volatile, while the stock market shows signs of improvement with the potential for policy - driven rallies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and hedging sentiment eased. The growth preference resurfaced, with power equipment, automobiles, and electronics leading the gains among primary industries. The reduction in IC positions on Wednesday exceeded the increase on Tuesday, and the discount narrowed significantly, possibly indicating concentrated short - covering of IC. The U.S. stocks stopped falling, and the domestic technology - related industries rebounded. The September social financing data showed an increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans, indicating a recovery in corporate demand. With an important meeting approaching at the end of the month, policy - boosting expectations are rising. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The implied volatility dropped significantly. The underlying market rose across the board in the afternoon. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 24.91% compared to the previous day. The proportion of bullish trading increased slightly, and the short - term trading scale of buyers did not rise. The PCR of open interest rebounded significantly, and the average absolute value of the volatility index of each variety decreased by 1.72%. Sellers were more willing to add positive - delta positions, and the put - buying options from the previous day were mainly for profit - taking or stop - loss. It is recommended to continue with the monthly covered - call strategy and limit the double - selling strategy to intraday trading [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Risk preference disturbances still exist. Most treasury bond futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts falling by 0.14%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment through open - market operations, which supported the bond market. The September inflation and social financing data were in line with market expectations, and the bond market had already priced them in. The improvement in the equity market's risk preference was negative for the bond market. In the short term, the long - end of the bond market is still greatly affected by risk preference, but the impact of tariffs may be lower than that in early April. The short - term bond market trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, look for long - end arbitrage opportunities, and appropriately focus on the steepening of the yield curve [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The actual values of China's September export annual rate, PPI annual rate, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to date were 8.3%, - 2.3%, and 30.09 trillion yuan respectively, with the export annual rate and social financing scale exceeding expectations, and the PPI annual rate in line with expectations. The data for the U.S. September non - farm payrolls change is yet to be released [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Social Financing**: As of the end of September, M2 and M1 balances increased by 8.4% and 7.2% year - on - year respectively. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - **New Energy**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [13]. - **U.S. Finance**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the budget deficit is smaller than last year, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio may reach 3%. A trade agreement with South Korea is imminent, and the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has normalized. The U.S. investment boom is sustainable, and the AI boom is in its early stages [14]. - **Consumption Tax Refund**: Starting from November 1, 2025, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and a rise on October 15, with a total trading volume of 20,728 billion yuan Group 1: Market Activity - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 20,728 billion yuan on October 15 [1] - The options market showed a mixed change in open interest, with active trading volumes reported for various ETFs [2] Group 2: Options Market Performance - The trading volume for the Shanghai 50 ETF options was 1,567,373 contracts, with an open interest of 1,620,171 contracts and a trading value of 574 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the CSI 300 ETF options was 2,069,336 contracts, with an open interest of 1,328,756 contracts and a trading value of 995 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the ChiNext ETF options was 2,484,809 contracts, with an open interest of 2,067,970 contracts and a trading value of 1,575 million yuan [2] Group 3: Implied Volatility - The implied volatility for various options showed a slight decline but remained at relatively high levels for the year, indicating a positive market sentiment [3] - The weighted implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 ETF options was 0.194, while for the CSI 300 ETF options it was 0.2119 [3] - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions allow for potential strategies such as long volatility positions and constructing long synthetic positions [3]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The stock index options are experiencing a downward wave increase, indicating a rise in bearish sentiment [1] 2. Market Data Summary 2.1 Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2961.10, 4539.06, and 7373.15 respectively, all showing declines. The trading volumes were 86.18 billion, 372.95 billion, and 304.41 billion hands respectively, with changes of 16.02 billion, 57.94 billion, and 16.01 billion hands [2] - For ETFs, the closing prices of Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge 300 ETF, and others also mostly declined, with varying trading volumes and changes [2] 2.2 Option Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of various index options and ETF options showed different degrees of change. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 68,793, an increase of 4,243, and the open interest was 77,492, an increase of 248 [2] - The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of different options also varied, reflecting different market sentiment. For instance, the VL-PCR of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 68.12%, and the OI-PCR was 72.11% [2] 2.3 Option Volatility Statistics - The ATM-IV, IV changes, same - term HV, and HV changes of different options were presented. For example, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 17.32%, with an IV change of 1.69%, and the same - term HV was 11.68%, with an HV change of - 8.47% [5] 3. Figures and Charts - There are multiple figures and charts for different index options and ETF options, including the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term structure chart, which visually display the market conditions of each option [9][14][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On October 13, 2025, the implied volatility of stock index options opened high and trended lower, with a rise in bearish sentiment. It is advisable to consider buying put options for protection [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index decreased by 7.65, 22.86, and 14.06 respectively. The trading volumes of the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge 300 ETF, and Southern 500 ETF were 5.38 billion, 9.66 billion, and 3.87 billion hands respectively [2] - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volume and open interest of most options increased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options increased by 7,823 to 64,550, and the open interest increased by 775 to 77,244 [2] 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - Month Options**: The ATM - IV of most options increased. For instance, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options increased by 0.38% to 15.63%, and the ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index options increased by 1.87% to 21.65% [5] - **Next - Month Options**: The ATM - IV of most options also increased. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options increased by 0.53% to 17.69%, and the ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index options increased by 1.28% to 19.04% [5] 3.3 Option Indicator Data Statistics - **PCR and Skew**: The VL - PCR and OI - PCR of most options showed different degrees of change, and the skew also changed. For example, the VL - PCR of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 70.39%, and the skew of near - month options decreased by 2.84% to - 0.20% [2][5] 3.4 Option Charts - **Volatility Charts**: For various options such as Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, CSI 300 Index options, and Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, there are charts showing the volatility trends of the main contracts, including ATM - IV and 20HV [9][11][13] - **PCR and Skew Charts**: There are also charts showing the PCR and skew trends of the main contracts and all contracts of various options [9][14][17] - **Volatility Cone and Term Structure Charts**: There are charts presenting the volatility cone and term structure of various options [9][15][18]

- The report introduces a **PCR timing strategy** based on the **Put/Call Ratio (PCR)**, which is a market sentiment indicator. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests a sentiment bottom with potential reversal) [5][66][73] - The **PCR timing strategy** is applied to **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50)** and **CSI 300** indices. The strategy's performance is tracked, showing a year-to-date return of 0.09% for CSI 300, with the latest signal being "no position" (signal 0) [5][73][83] - The **PCR timing strategy** performance metrics for CSI 300 include annualized volatility (15.31%), maximum drawdown (9.44%), Sharpe ratio (0.25), and Calmar ratio (0.43) for 2025. The overall performance from 2020 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 19.96%, maximum drawdown of 23.42%, and Sharpe ratio of 1 [79] - For SSE 50, the **PCR timing strategy** metrics for 2025 include annualized volatility (13.46%), maximum drawdown (12.59%), Sharpe ratio (-0.24), and Calmar ratio (-0.2). The overall performance from 2017 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 14.06%, maximum drawdown of 24.96%, and Sharpe ratio of 0.75 [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - T0 strategies, with low risk exposure and high return - drawdown ratios, are attracting more attention. Stock T0 strategies have an annualized return of 5% - 20% and a drawdown of around 1%, making them popular as alternative absolute - return strategies. Futures T0 strategies are more advantageous carriers, offering high liquidity, low costs, and leverage, and having lower slippage compared to commodity futures [1]. - Combining deep - learning - based medium - low - frequency momentum/reversal strategies is a viable approach for futures T0 strategies. The K - Shape algorithm is used to classify intraday trends into three types: upward, downward, and sideways. An MLP + GRU neural network is used to predict these trends, with a validation set win - rate increasing from 33% to 40%. By integrating these predictions with an intraday CTA base strategy, the strategy can achieve a post - fee annualized return of 11.19% and a drawdown of 3.62%, and over 30% annualized return on the IM contract [2][3][4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Analysis of the Characteristics of Futures T0 Strategies 1.1 From Stock T0 to Futures T0 Strategies - **Stock T0 Strategies**: T0 strategies are less affected by index trends and macro - economic conditions, and more related to turnover and intraday amplitude. They can be divided into manual and programmed T0. Their annualized returns range from 5% to 20%, with small drawdowns, and are suitable for small - scale funds or large - position strategies. There are already mature third - party algorithm providers collaborating with brokerages [9][12][13]. - **Advantages of Futures T0 Strategies**: Futures offer a T + 0 trading mechanism, high liquidity, sufficient amplitude, low trading costs, and leverage. They also have lower slippage compared to commodity futures, providing a better platform for T0 strategies [16][18]. - **Significance for Multi - asset and Multi - strategy Allocation**: Futures T0 strategies can diversify asset allocation, provide free leverage and short - side returns, and improve the performance of traditional asset portfolios. For example, adding a CTA - like strategy to a basic asset pool can increase the annualized return of a risk - parity strategy from 5.50% to 6.67% and reduce the maximum drawdown from 6.71% to 3.74% [19][21]. 1.2 Exploration of Futures T0 Strategy Paradigms - **Differences from Traditional Strategies**: T0 strategies have time - limited opening and closing positions, a narrowing decision - making space, and are highly susceptible to high - frequency information flows, requiring strict trading discipline [23]. - **Specific Implementation Logics**: - **Micro - structure Strategies Based on Order Books**: Analyze high - frequency data such as order book volume and price distribution to predict short - term price trends, with high trading frequencies [25]. - **Momentum/Reversal and Statistical Arbitrage Strategies**: Based on financial time - series statistical laws, with medium - low trading frequencies. Momentum strategies follow trends, while reversal strategies capture corrective rebounds [26]. - **Combination of Machine/Deep Learning with Traditional Paradigms**: Machine and deep learning can automatically learn complex non - linear patterns from large - scale, high - dimensional, and noisy data, and are used in the above two types of strategies [27]. 2. T0 Framework Based on Intraday Trend Pattern Prediction 2.1 Review of Time - Series Clustering Algorithms - **DTW + K - Means**: DTW can measure the similarity between time series, overcoming translation, scaling, and periodic invariance. Combined with K - Means, it can cluster intraday index trends, but is affected by outliers and has high computational complexity [33][39][40]. - **K - Shape**: A time - series clustering algorithm using shape - based distance (SBD) to measure similarity, with translation and scaling invariance. It has better computational efficiency and cluster - center representation, and is used for subsequent analysis [41]. 2.2 Clustering Performance of the K - Shape Algorithm on Stock Index Spot - The K - Shape algorithm is used to cluster the intraday trends of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. Initially, 20 - category clustering is performed, and then reduced to 8 categories. The cluster centers are explicitly initialized, and the final three - category classification (upward, downward, and sideways) is used for subsequent prediction [48][51][53]. 2.3 Prediction of Trend Pattern Labels Based on Deep Learning - For medium - low - frequency T0 strategies, predicting trend types is more meaningful than predicting returns. An MLP neural network with a Softmax output layer is used, integrating cross - sectional and time - series price - volume features. The validation set win - rate can increase from 12.5% to 20.35%, and for the three - category classification, it can increase from 33% to 40%. The model is retrained quarterly to ensure stable performance [57][58][65]. 2.4 T0 Baseline Strategy: Intraday ATR Breakout - The intraday ATR breakout strategy is a trend - following strategy that uses the previous day's ATR to set trading intervals, with opening, stop - profit, and stop - loss thresholds. It is sensitive to trading fees. Under a unilateral fee rate of 0.0025%, the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 can achieve positive long - term returns [72][75][80]. 2.5 Futures T0 Strategy Based on Trend Pattern Prediction - By predicting intraday trends, the application and parameters of the base strategy can be adjusted. For example, on four equal - weighted contracts from January 2023 to June 2025, the annualized return can increase from 6.65% to 11.19%, and the maximum drawdown can be reduced from 7.45% to 3.62% [84][86][87]. 2.6 Summary and Outlook - Futures T0 strategies are more advantageous than stock T0 strategies, and an intraday trend pattern prediction + intraday CTA framework is used to construct the strategy. Future research can focus on improving trend prediction by adding more information and developing reversal CTA strategies [92][93][96].