一月春季行情延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 27 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 挖掘经济潜能，股市慢牛延续 2025.12.12 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流 动性等因素影响。（1）春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响 1 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影响 1 月 A 股走势的核心因素：首先，积极的政策和外部事件可能导致上证综指上涨， 如 2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally is likely to continue in January, with A-shares expected to show a strong upward trend, driven by technology growth and certain cyclical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - Historical data indicates that when the spring market rally starts early, A-shares tend to perform strongly in January, influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity [2]. - Key factors affecting A-share performance in January include positive policies and external events, which can lead to an increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, as seen in past instances like the easing of US-China trade tensions in 2019 and the optimization of pandemic policies in 2023 [2]. - Liquidity plays a crucial role in January's A-share performance; a loose liquidity environment may lead to an increase in A-shares, while tight liquidity could result in weaker performance [2]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Outlook - Positive policy expectations are anticipated to rise in January, with potential announcements of provincial "14th Five-Year" plans and consumer stimulus measures [3]. - Global central banks are expected to continue easing, and the relationship between China and the US is likely to remain stable, with limited external risks [3]. - Economic recovery is expected to continue, albeit weakly, with corporate profit growth likely to improve, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance Expectations - Technology growth and certain cyclical industries are expected to outperform in January, driven by upward trends in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, and demand for non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4]. - Historical analysis shows that when the spring market rally begins early, technology growth sectors tend to perform relatively better in January [4]. - The upcoming themes in January, such as commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion, are expected to catalyze market interest [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for January, focusing on technology growth, cyclical sectors, and consumer industries [5]. - Specific sectors suggested for investment include machinery (robots), military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), and media (AI applications, gaming) [5]. - There is potential for recovery in brokerage firms and consumer sectors (food, retail, and social services) that may see marginal improvements in fundamentals [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global M&A activity is expected to reach $4.5 trillion in 2025, marking a nearly 50% increase from 2024 and the second-highest level on record since the 1970s, only behind the M&A boom of 2021 [1] - This year, there have been 68 large transactions, each valued at over $10 billion, significantly reshaping various industries from media to industrial sectors [3] - Key factors driving the current M&A wave include a favorable market environment, ample financing options, and a relatively relaxed regulatory landscape in the U.S., encouraging companies to pursue previously shelved M&A plans [3] Group 2 - The surge in transaction activity has directly contributed to an increase in investment banking revenues, which have risen to approximately $135 billion this year, a 9% year-on-year increase, with over half of the revenue coming from the U.S. market [4] - Despite the large-scale M&A activity, smaller transactions have seen a decline, with the total number of such deals dropping by 7% year-on-year to the lowest level since 2016 [4] - The private equity M&A market has also experienced a slow recovery, with total deal value increasing by about 25% to $889 billion, although challenges remain for acquisition groups in asset exits [4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, there is an expectation for further increases in M&A activity over the next couple of years, with financial sponsors beginning to gain momentum [5] - Despite stock markets reaching new highs, pricing imbalances persist in the market, with diverse financing sources supporting investment opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium experienced significant price increases, with silver futures rising by 11.15% and reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity [2][12]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver futures increased by 11.15%, reaching $79.68 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 18.06% [7] - Spot silver rose by 10.24%, priced at $79.196 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 17.87% [7] - Platinum futures surged by 11.84%, now at $2,513.9 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 24.54% [9] - Palladium futures jumped by 14.04%, priced at $2,060.50 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 15.31% [10] - Gold futures also saw an increase of 1.31%, reaching $4,562 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 3.98% [6] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Global M&A activity reached $4.5 trillion in 2025, marking a nearly 50% increase from 2024 and the second-highest total in over 40 years [4] - The year saw 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion across various sectors, driven by favorable market conditions and a relatively lenient regulatory environment in the U.S. [4] - The largest transactions included a competitive bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and a major merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, creating a railroad giant valued at approximately $250 billion [4] - Despite the surge in large transactions, the overall number of smaller deals declined by 7%, reaching the lowest level since 2016 [4]

Group 1 - The company plans to invest RMB 50 million to establish a special investment fund, acting as a limited partner, with an initial contribution of RMB 25 million [1] - The focus of the investment fund will be on core digital cultural technology industries centered around artificial intelligence (AI) and the integration of "AI+" and "culture+" [1] - The company has signed a partnership agreement with 12 other enterprises to jointly establish the Yangtze River Delta Smart Cultural Industry Private Investment Fund, with a total fund size of RMB 10 billion [1] Group 2 - The initial closed target subscription amount for the fund is RMB 3.003 billion, with the company committing RMB 50 million, including an initial investment of RMB 25 million [1]

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观首席分析师，张浩；宏观分析师，薛舒宁 2025年7月以来，我国PPI回升趋势较为明朗，预计2026年PPI同比降幅大概率继续收窄、且未来半年可能是修复最快的时期。过往看，PPI回升的不同阶 段，A股走势和领涨风格各异，债市也表现出不同的阶段性特征。本文通过复盘历史各轮PPI回升阶段的股债表现，以求挖掘2026年PPI回升过程中催生的 投资机会。 核心结论：2000年以来有5轮PPI回升，以史为鉴、全面复盘、用数据说话。 1、股市方面，过往5轮，A股多呈上行趋势、且阶段性特征明显： >第一阶段，PPI环比见底时：A股估值率先修复、股价上涨，中小盘成长股占优，TMT、传媒涨幅领先； >第二阶段，PPI同比由底部回升至转正前：大盘继续上行、风格更加均衡，成长、消费、周期均有不错表现，如电子、通信、电力设备、食品饮料、家 电、美容护理、有色金属、基础化工等； >第三阶段，PPI同比转正后：大盘转入高位震荡，股市风格再平衡，价值占优的概率提升，周期、稳定风格表现跑赢大盘。 2、债市方面，通胀因素仅是影响10Y国债利率的变量之一，增长预期和流动性环境更为关键。只有需求确定性改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential technological breakthroughs expected in 2026, highlighting a range of innovations that could signify a new era of technological advancement in China, akin to the "Roaring Twenties" in the United States during the 1920s [5][6]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - The anticipated technological milestones for 2026 include autonomous driving, liquid cooling, domestic HBM, edge AI, solid-state batteries, AI applications, quantum computing, integrated storage and computing chips, brain-like computing, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, silicon photonics, and controlled nuclear fusion [6]. - The article suggests that the current atmosphere of skepticism towards technology reflects a broader economic transformation, with significant innovations emerging as a hallmark of this period [6]. Group 2: Historical Parallels - The economic conditions in the United States at the beginning of the 1920s bear similarities to those in contemporary China, particularly in terms of rapid government spending and military expansion during World War I, which led to a subsequent economic downturn post-war [8]. - The article draws parallels between the supply-demand dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy and the current economic landscape in China, emphasizing that the real threat comes not from recession but from the unsustainable costs established during periods of prosperity [11][12]. Group 3: Technological Adoption and Economic Impact - The rapid adoption of electricity in the 1920s significantly transformed American manufacturing, leading to increased productivity and wage growth, which in turn fueled consumer demand and the rise of a middle class [15]. - The introduction of radio as a revolutionary media technology during the same period created a national advertising platform, which helped establish consumer brands and contributed to the rise of a consumer economy in the U.S. [16][18]. Group 4: Lessons for Today - The article posits that the technological advancements of the 1920s, while initially underestimated, ultimately led to significant economic changes, suggesting that similar patterns may emerge in China today with AI and other technologies [27][28]. - It warns that while the current technological landscape may appear inflated, the underlying productivity gains could have lasting impacts, much like the radio technology did despite the stock market crash of 1929 [28].

Group 1 - ST Huawen announced the signing of a share transfer agreement on December 26, 2025, where its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hainan Huawen Minxiang Investment Co., Ltd., will transfer 55% of its stake in Huawen Jingshu (Shanghai) Technology Co., Ltd. to Haikou Xifengli Enterprise Management Partnership for a transaction price of 30.98 million yuan [1] - For the first half of 2025, ST Huawen's revenue composition was as follows: 65.32% from media and cultural industry, 16.09% from commercial services, 7.82% from entertainment, 7.09% from digital content services, and 2.49% from information technology service fees [1] - As of the report date, ST Huawen's market capitalization was 5.7 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the power equipment industry saw a significant net inflow of funds amounting to 77.52 billion yuan, which is notably higher than other sectors [1] - On December 26, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day consecutive rise [1] - Among the 25 industries with net outflows, the electronics, communications, and machinery sectors had the highest outflows, each exceeding 4 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - From individual stocks, 49 stocks had net inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan, with five stocks seeing inflows over 10 billion yuan [2] - Yangguang Electric Power led with a net inflow of 23.72 billion yuan, attributed to a surge in the photovoltaic sector following the "2025 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference" [2] - Aerospace Development followed with a net inflow of 20.72 billion yuan, with significant buying from institutional investors [2] Group 3 - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 6.56 billion yuan, but the power equipment and defense industries attracted over 1 billion yuan in net buying [3] - Individual stocks such as Xiechuang Data and Yangguang Electric Power had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan at the close [3] - Other stocks like China Satellite Communications and Zhejiang Sebao also saw substantial net inflows, each exceeding 800 million yuan [3] Group 4 - On the outflow side, stocks like Xinwei Communication, Yingweike, and Lixun Precision experienced the highest net outflows at the market close [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 Weibo Revitalization Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) Gala and related events successfully concluded in Chengdu, focusing on the theme "New Vitality of ICH, Empowering the Future" [1] - The event gathered over 600 representatives from government, media, academia, enterprises, and ICH inheritors, aiming to bridge ICH with various industries and create a high-value platform for ICH [1][3] Event Highlights - The gala featured nine annual ICH honors awarded to individuals and organizations making significant contributions to the field [3] - Keynote speeches emphasized the role of youth as core transmitters and innovators of ICH in the internet era [3] - Weibo's commitment to building an open and collaborative ICH communication system was highlighted, focusing on deep integration and cross-industry empowerment [3][12] Awards and Recognitions - Eight projects received the "Annual ICH Local Newborn Model Project" honor, showcasing diverse media efforts in promoting ICH [4] - Various organizations and individuals were recognized for their contributions, including "Annual ICH Youth Power Model" and "Annual ICH Charm Performance Figure" awards [6][7] Technological Integration - The event showcased the potential of AI technology in enhancing ICH transmission, with interactive demonstrations highlighting its capabilities [7] - Experts discussed the synergy between intangible and tangible cultural heritage, emphasizing the importance of storytelling in engaging younger audiences [7] Future Initiatives - The launch of the "Weibo ICH Resident Program" aims to invite influential content creators to collaborate with local governments, enhancing cultural transmission and economic development [11] - A report on the integration of ICH and industry was released, focusing on sustainable development and the dual empowerment of ICH and industry [14][15]