证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 统一电力市场赋能储网风光高质发展 行业走势图 (15) (2) 12 25 38 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 电力设备与新能源 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 电力设备与新能源 增持 (维持) 刘俊 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110003 SFC No. AVM464 karlliu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 边文姣 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110004 SFC No. BSJ399 bianwenjiao@htsc.com +(86) 755 8277 6411 戚腾元 研究员 SAC No. S0570524080002 SFC No. BVU938 qitengyuan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 徐嘉欣* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070136 xujiaxin@htsc.com 华泰研究 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见（国 办发〔2026 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.2% at 27,210.56 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.47% at 5,474.25 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.19% at 9,250.27 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly opened lower, with Alibaba down 1.37%, Tencent down 2.01%, and Meituan down 2.48%, while AI application stocks showed strength, with Zhihui up 8.77% and MINIMAX-WP up 5.65% [1] Company Performance - NetEase reported strong performance, with a net revenue of approximately 112.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.96%, and a net profit of approximately 33.76 billion yuan, up 13.68% [2] - NetEase Cloud Music saw a significant profit increase of 75.4%, with a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan and a profit of 2.75 billion yuan, confirming a turning point in performance [2] Industry Trends - The hard technology and manufacturing sectors showed signs of recovery, with Qiu Tai Technology reporting a 22.8% year-on-year increase in camera module sales and an 18.4% increase in fingerprint recognition module sales, driven by demand in IoT and smart automotive sectors [3] - The renewable energy sector also saw growth, with China Resources Power reporting a 28.4% year-on-year increase in electricity sales, and solar power sales soaring by 72.3% [3] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced significant positive developments, with Rebio Biotech announcing a global exclusive licensing agreement worth up to 4.4 billion USD, leading to a substantial increase in stock price [4] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's product was included in a breakthrough therapy list, with projected global sales exceeding 6.5 billion USD in 2024 [4] Capital Market Activity - Industrial capital is actively engaging in buybacks to stabilize the market, with Geely Automobile repurchasing shares worth approximately 20.30 million HKD and other companies like Kingsoft and Bai Rong Cloud also participating in buybacks [5] - Huili Group is expected to see a profit increase of over 20 times in 2025, indicating a strong performance reversal [5] Institutional Insights - There is a divergence in institutional views regarding market fluctuations, with some suggesting that the recent pullback is a liquidity shock, while others believe that valuation recovery is nearly complete [6] - Specific sectors like AI computing and surgical robots are highlighted for potential growth, with expectations for high performance in 2025 and 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System" aims to establish a comprehensive national electricity market by 2030, with market transactions accounting for approximately 70% of total electricity consumption, and to fully complete the system by 2035 [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Functionality - By 2030, all types of power sources and electricity users, except for guaranteed users, will directly participate in the electricity market, with a focus on market-based trading [1] - The implementation of a unified market regulatory system and a market pricing mechanism will be established to ensure fair competition [1] - The transition to a formal operation of the spot market is targeted for completion by 2027, enhancing real-time price discovery and supply-demand adjustment [2] Group 2: Long-term Market Stability - The long-term market will be improved to ensure stable electricity supply and enhance risk response capabilities through effective contract signing and performance measures [3] - The long-term market will be refined to allow continuous trading across various time frames, including annual and monthly contracts [3] - Effective integration between long-term and spot markets will be emphasized to meet national energy security requirements [3] Group 3: Green Electricity Market - A unified green certificate market will be established to recognize renewable energy production and consumption, promoting the expansion of green electricity consumption [4] - The introduction of a consumption certification mechanism for green electricity will be accelerated, incorporating technologies like blockchain for full-chain certification [4] - The development of various trading models for green electricity, including long-term purchase agreements, will be encouraged [4] Group 4: Participation of Generation Entities - The participation of generation entities in the electricity market will be further promoted, particularly for renewable energy sources [5] - A sustainable pricing settlement mechanism for renewable energy will be established to encourage long-term trading [5] - The optimization of coal-fired power generation operations will be pursued to ensure all generated electricity participates in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from Southern Power Grid in Guangdong regarding distributed photovoltaic power generation during the Spring Festival highlights the risk of negative electricity prices due to a significant drop in electricity demand while supply remains high, indicating a need for system regulation [2][5]. Group 1: Negative Electricity Prices - Negative electricity prices are becoming a common issue in the context of China's energy transition and market reforms, reflecting challenges in absorbing large-scale renewable energy [5][18]. - The occurrence of negative prices is not a sign of market failure but rather a necessary outcome of the efficient price mechanism in the electricity market [5][18]. - Negative prices have been observed in various industries, indicating that they are not unique to the electricity sector and are a result of short-term supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. Group 2: Impact on Power Generation Companies - Concerns that negative prices will lead to widespread losses for power generation companies are unfounded, as a multi-faceted revenue system has been established to mitigate these impacts [10][11]. - The long-term contracts in the electricity market allow companies to secure most of their revenue, thus providing stability against fluctuations caused by negative prices [11]. - The growth of green certificate trading has become a significant revenue source for distributed photovoltaic projects, helping to offset the effects of negative prices [11]. Group 3: Future of Negative Prices - Negative prices are expected to become a regular feature of the electricity market rather than a temporary phenomenon, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy generation [13][18]. - The ongoing expansion of renewable energy capacity and improvements in market mechanisms will likely lead to more frequent occurrences of negative prices as a tool for balancing supply and demand [13][18]. Group 4: Benefits to Users - Negative prices can provide economic benefits to users, particularly commercial users, by linking retail electricity prices to real-time market prices, allowing them to share in the cost savings [15][16]. - The mechanism of negative pricing helps internalize external costs associated with excess electricity, encouraging efficient resource utilization and minimizing social costs [16][18].

重要的消息有哪些 1.国务院办公厅印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。其中提出，到2030年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源和除保障性用 户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全社会用电量的70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入正式运行，市场 基础规则和技术标准全面统一，市场化电价机制基本健全，公平统一的市场监管体系基本形成。到2035年，全面建成全国统一电力市场体系，市场功能进 一步成熟完善，市场化交易电量占比稳中有升。跨省跨区和省内交易有机融合，电力资源的电能量、调节、环境、容量等多维价值全面由市场反映，电力 资源全面实现全国范围内的优化配置和高效利用，以电力为主体、多种能源协同互济的全国统一能源市场体系初步形成。 巨力索具：市场传闻不实，商业航天订单金额占比对公司经营业绩影响很小。 二连板小崧股份：控股公司短剧业务尚处于早期投资阶段。 2 . 2月11日，国家统计局发布了以2025年为基期的全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据。这是本次基期轮换后的首次数 据发布。基期轮换是国际惯例和通行做法，每五年进行一次。具体看，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan State-owned Assets and State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) system is at a critical juncture, aiming for high-quality development and reform as it transitions from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on optimizing layout, structural adjustment, and development transformation [5][10]. Group 1: Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - Sichuan's SOEs have shown remarkable growth, with total assets increasing from 10.75 trillion yuan to 23.23 trillion yuan, a growth of 116.2%, and total revenue surpassing 2 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 16.7% [6]. - The six major advantageous industries of local SOEs reported total assets of 2.04 trillion yuan, revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, and profit of 101.56 billion yuan, marking increases of 132.2%, 41.3%, and 59.1% respectively [6]. - Strategic emerging industries saw total assets of 719.07 billion yuan, revenue of 150.45 billion yuan, and profit of 5.92 billion yuan, with growth rates of 245.4%, 145.7%, and 91.9% respectively [7]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Reform - R&D investment by local SOEs reached 21.71 billion yuan, doubling since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual growth of 18.4% [7]. - Significant progress in SOE reform includes the establishment of 45 enterprises with assets exceeding 100 billion yuan and 37 enterprises with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase from the previous plan [8]. - The integration of party leadership into corporate governance has been institutionalized, enhancing the management and operational efficiency of SOEs [8]. Group 3: Strategic Support and Future Goals - The SOEs are expected to play a crucial role in supporting major strategies such as the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, with significant investments in infrastructure and energy resources [9][11]. - Future goals include achieving higher quality and efficiency in SOEs, optimizing industrial layout, and enhancing innovation capabilities by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan [10][12]. - Key strategies for the next five years involve strengthening strategic support, optimizing modern industrial layout, enhancing technological innovation, and reforming operational mechanisms to foster a more competitive SOE landscape [11][12].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued the first tranche of 14 billion RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a subscription multiple of 3.94 times, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that online retail sales reached 989.73 billion RMB from January 19 to February 8, with online dining and tourism growing by 11.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] - The China Automobile Industry Association announced that in January, automobile production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% [2] Group 2 - The South African Agricultural Chamber stated that despite the impact of US tariffs, agricultural exports are expected to grow by 10% to reach 15.1 billion USD by 2025, setting a new historical high [3] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism introduced a new complaint handling method for tourism, effective from March 15, 2026 [4] - The railway department announced the addition of night high-speed trains on major routes to meet passenger return travel demand, with ticket sales implemented in a staggered pre-sale manner [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "horizontal slightly strong" trend, with a judgment that the index will continue to consolidate before the Spring Festival due to the effects of the long holiday and risk-averse behavior leading to relatively low trading activity [1][13] - The State Council emphasized the importance of advancing AI technology innovation and industry development during a recent meeting, aiming to enhance productivity and promote high-quality development [2] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are urged to strengthen investment traction and expand effective investment in computing power, focusing on autonomous innovation and the application of AI technologies [2] Group 2 - The implementation opinions for a unified national electricity market system were released, aiming to establish a market where 70% of electricity consumption is traded by 2030, with a fully operational spot market and unified pricing mechanisms [3] - The State Administration for Market Regulation introduced guidelines to prevent monopolistic behaviors in public utilities, aiming to enhance fair competition and protect consumer interests [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced that certain VAT exemption policies for imported cancer and rare disease drugs will continue to be effective until the end of 2027 [4] Group 3 - China Bank will adjust the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products starting February 12, 2026, increasing it from 950 yuan to 1200 yuan [5] - NetEase reported a stable performance for 2025, with Q4 revenue of 27.5 billion yuan and an annual total revenue of 112.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase in operating profit [6] - Dongfeng Group announced plans for privatization through a merger, distributing shares of Lantu and achieving the necessary conditions for the merger [6] Group 4 - Meta Platforms Inc. plans to invest over $10 billion in a data center in Lebanon, Indiana, which will support over 4,000 construction jobs and create 300 long-term positions [8] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to terminate President Trump's punitive trade measures against Canadian goods, reflecting ongoing trade policy discussions [8] - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with declines in Google and Microsoft, while storage and mining sectors saw significant gains [11]

Market Overview - US stock market opened high but later retreated due to weakness in large tech stocks, with the S&P 500 slightly down, Dow Jones down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.16% [1] - Concerns over AI disruption continue to affect the market, leading to a 2.6% drop in software stock ETFs and significant sell-offs in real estate service stocks, with CBRE Group and Jones Lang LaSalle both falling 12% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.65%, with Century Internet rising over 12% and Kingsoft Cloud up 10% [1] Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll report for January was strong, pushing back market expectations for interest rate cuts from June to July, resulting in a decline in US Treasury bonds [2] - US Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 6.4 basis points and the 10-year yield up by approximately 3 basis points [3] - The US dollar experienced significant fluctuations, ending the day with a slight increase of 0.08% [4] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices rose by 1.3%, while silver saw a pullback after a high, still gaining over 4% [5] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1% amid reports of Trump considering withdrawing from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [5] Industry Developments - Indonesia's largest nickel mine has been ordered to cut production by 70% [6] - Elon Musk is planning to establish an AI satellite factory on the moon [7] - The European Union has approved Google's $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity startup Wiz to strengthen its cloud computing and cybersecurity capabilities [8] - Reports indicate that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is considering launching rare earth futures [9] Domestic Events - The Chinese government is promoting the "AI+" initiative to empower various industries, emphasizing the need for technological advancements and commercial applications in AI [12] - The State Council has issued guidelines for establishing a unified national electricity market by 2030, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based [13] - The first national standard for low-code development platforms has been approved, marking a significant step towards standardization in this sector [14] - The Chinese government plans to distribute 2.05 billion yuan in consumer vouchers and subsidies during the Spring Festival to stimulate consumer spending [15] Company Announcements - *ST Jieneng has changed to a state with no actual controller and resumed trading [16] - Tianqi Mould plans to acquire 60% of Dongshi shares, resuming trading [16] - New Henghui intends to invest 200 million yuan to acquire a 10.53% stake in a high-end substrate company [16] - Top Group expects a net profit of 2.6 to 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.35% to 13.35% year-on-year due to raw material price fluctuations and increased market competition [17]

2月11日，国务院办公厅印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。 意见提出，到2030年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部 直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全社会用电量的70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货 市场全面转入正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面统一，市场化电价机制基本健全，公平统一的市 场监管体系基本形成。 到2035年，全面建成全国统一电力市场体系，电力资源的电能量、调节、环境、容量等多维价值全面由 市场反映，电力资源全面实现全国范围内的优化配置和高效利用，以电力为主体、多种能源协同互济的 全国统一能源市场体系初步形成。 华泰证券表示，预计"十五五"期间电网投资有望达到4万亿元以上，相比于"十四五"期间电网投资2.8万 亿元显著提升。其中，主网建设助力全国电网网架实现互联互通，是全国统一电力大市场搭建的重要支 撑。 其进一步认为，全国统一电力市场建设下，跨省输电通道建设与西部薄弱电网补强需求明确。一方面， 需要加强区域间的电网互联互济能力，高电压主网网架互通是全国统一电力大市场搭建的底层支撑；另 一方面，西部区域逐渐成为我国能源的"富矿区" ...