行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-09 01 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 02 甲醇：利好驱动不足 或转弱运行 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：在尿素日产连续提升，农忙阶段性用肥空档期以及复合肥开工率下调的供需背景下，尿素价格大 幅回落。6月6日尿素2509合约收盘价1720元/吨，较上周下调53元/吨，降幅2.99%。尿素现货价格先涨后跌，河 南市场日均价1818元/吨，较上周下调10元/吨。基差：尿素期货价格弱势运行，主力基差表现走强，6月6日河南 市场主力基差98元/吨，较上周走强43元/吨。价差：尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，6月6日9-1价差51元/吨， 较上周缩小19元/吨，价差运行区间为30-100元/吨。 2 ...

Group 1: Modern Coal Chemical Industry Development - Inner Mongolia has established a trillion-level modern coal chemical industry cluster, leveraging its abundant coal resources to develop a new chemical industry system focused on coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas, coal-to-methanol, and coal-to-olefins [2][3] - The region's coal chemical industry has achieved a comprehensive capacity of 38.35 million tons, with coal-to-gas, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-methanol capacities ranking first in the country [4] - The Baofeng coal-based new materials project has an annual capacity of 3 million tons, making it the largest single coal-to-olefins production project globally [2] Group 2: New Energy and Equipment Manufacturing - Inner Mongolia aims to establish a new energy supply system, with plans to exceed coal-fired power generation capacity by 2025, achieving a total installed capacity of 135 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [5] - The region is developing a comprehensive new energy equipment manufacturing industry, with local supply rates reaching 85% in wind power equipment production [6] - The focus is on creating a distinctive industrial chain for new energy equipment, including wind, solar, hydrogen, storage, and vehicles [6] Group 3: Economic Growth and Industrial Upgrading - Inner Mongolia's GDP is projected to reach 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, ranking 20th nationally [8] - The manufacturing sector has shown remarkable growth, with a 9.3% increase contributing nearly 50% to industrial growth [8] - The region is focusing on traditional, emerging, and future industries, aiming to enhance competitiveness and promote high-quality economic development [9]

Summary of Donghua Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Donghua Technology holds a leading position in the coal chemical industry, with a market share of 70% in large-scale synthetic ammonia, urea, methanol, and coal-based ethylene glycol [2][4] - The company is a state-owned enterprise, with the largest shareholder being China Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd. (47% stake) and the second largest being Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group (approximately 20.8% stake) [3] Core Business Areas - **Coal Chemical Industry**: Dominates the market with a 70% share in key products [2][4] - **New Materials**: Focus on DMC (dimethyl carbonate), biodegradable materials, and vinyl acetate [4][22] - **Lithium Battery Materials**: A leading player in lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2][4] - **Green Energy**: Development of green hydrogen production and green buildings, aiming for a contract share of 1 billion yuan in lithium phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2][18] - **Biomass Gasification**: Conducting pilot projects to reduce conversion costs and improve conversion rates, with plans to launch biomass gasification furnaces by the second half of 2025 [2][7] Strategic Goals - **14th Five-Year Plan**: Targeting revenue of 10 billion yuan and total profit of 570 million yuan by 2025, with a goal to double profits to 1 billion yuan by 2030 [2][8] - **Order Book**: As of May, domestic orders exceeded 4 billion yuan, with expectations of securing large international projects worth 4-5 billion yuan by mid-2025 [10][12] Financial Performance - The latest quarterly report indicates stable revenue and profit performance, suggesting ongoing growth potential [9] Industry Dynamics - **Coal Chemical Orders**: Last year, orders were low at around 1 billion yuan due to a slowdown in the coal chemical sector since 2015. This year, the company aims for 5-6 billion yuan in orders, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [11][12] - **New Projects**: Significant projects in Xinjiang are progressing, with approvals for coal-to-gas projects, which are expected to benefit the company [13][14] Environmental and Technological Initiatives - **Green Hydrogen**: Transitioning from traditional coal-based hydrogen to green hydrogen production using photovoltaic power [19][20] - **Graphene Project**: Currently in pilot stage, expected to generate significant revenue upon completion [28] Market Challenges - The company faces challenges in the green energy sector due to higher costs compared to traditional fossil fuels, requiring government support for large-scale development [21] Conclusion Donghua Technology is strategically positioned in the coal chemical and new materials sectors, with ambitious growth targets and a focus on sustainable energy solutions. The company is navigating industry challenges while leveraging its strong market position and state-owned enterprise backing to pursue new opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on price increases for specific products such as 康宽 and 硝化棉 [1] Core Insights - The chemical market has shown an upward trend, with the SW Chemical Index rising by 2.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.73% [1] - Key price increases have been noted in various chemical products, including 康宽, which has reached 300,000 CNY/ton, and SAF, which has seen significant price jumps [1] - The report highlights the successful commercial operation of BASF's Black Mass plant in Germany, which has an annual processing capacity of 15,000 tons of waste lithium-ion batteries [1] - The report also mentions the recent price settlement for potassium fertilizer contracts in India at 349 USD/ton, which may serve as a reference for future contracts in China [1] - The AI industry is experiencing explosive growth, with significant implications for nuclear power demand, as evidenced by Meta's 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude oil futures averaged 65.39 USD/barrel, up 1.03 USD (1.6%) from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged 63.35 USD/barrel, up 2.16 USD (3.53%) [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, with the agricultural chemicals sector showing the highest weekly increase of 7.69% [10][11] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is stabilizing with a slight decrease in raw material prices, while domestic and international demand continues to recover [23] - The sweetener market, particularly for 三氯蔗糖, is expected to improve due to tightening supply despite weak demand [25] - The dye market remains stable, with no significant changes in pricing, while the carbonates market is facing downward pressure due to weak demand [31][32] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance across different segments [22][29] - The report notes that the titanium dioxide market is under pressure, with prices continuing to decline due to weak fundamentals [27] Industry Events - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, which may impact oil prices and the chemical sector [2] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff policies could have significant implications for global trade and the chemical industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia is positioning itself as a new highland for industrial transfer, leveraging its vast resources and innovative technologies to drive economic transformation and sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Transition and Innovation - The "Liquid Sunshine" project by China Coal Inner Mongolia Energy Chemical Co. is the first fully self-owned intellectual property project in the country, aiming to produce 21,000 tons of green hydrogen and 100,000 tons of methanol annually, significantly reducing coal consumption and CO2 emissions [2]. - Inner Mongolia has a technical exploitable capacity of 1.46 billion kilowatts for wind energy and 940 million kilowatts for solar energy, accounting for 57% and 21% of the national total, respectively [3]. - As of April, Inner Mongolia's total installed capacity for renewable energy reached 138 million kilowatts, a 37% year-on-year increase, making it the first province in China where renewable energy accounts for over 50% of total installed capacity [3]. Group 2: Traditional Industry Transformation - Inner Mongolia's coal industry is evolving from a resource-dependent model to an innovation-driven approach, with projects converting coal into high-performance materials and fine chemical products [4]. - The region's agricultural and livestock product processing rate has reached over 73%, with significant advancements in the value-added processing of sheep tail oil, which can increase the value from 18 yuan to 1,500-2,000 yuan per tail [6][5]. - In 2024, the agricultural and livestock product processing industry in Inner Mongolia is expected to achieve an output value of approximately 350 billion yuan, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu ranking among the top ten dairy enterprises globally [7]. Group 3: Digital Economy and Future Industries - Inner Mongolia is establishing a digital economy through cloud computing and supercomputing, with the Oriental Supercomputing Cloud providing 20 million trillion calculations per second to support over 300 institutions nationwide [9]. - The region is developing a low-altitude economy, focusing on drone manufacturing and related services, as outlined in the 2024-2027 development plan [9]. - The Beidou application industry park is showcasing various new products and technologies, with companies like Tianqi Xinglian Technology leading in satellite applications for renewable energy, tapping into a market worth hundreds of billions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanxi Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation Co., Ltd. (Lanhua Ketech), reported a decline in financial performance for 2024, attributing this to prolonged construction periods and significant investments in two mines, as well as fluctuations in coal prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.697 billion yuan, a total profit of 827 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 718 million yuan, all showing a decline compared to previous periods [1]. - The decline in performance is linked to weaker profitability in the coal and coal chemical sectors due to the aforementioned factors [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a series of strategic measures covering the entire business chain from coal resource expansion to downstream coal chemical industry upgrades [2]. - Key projects include the launch of the Lanhua Qinyu 900,000 tons/year integrated mine in January 2024 and the Baisheng Coal Industry project expected to begin production by the end of September 2024 [2]. - The company also secured coal exploration rights in Shanxi Province for 6.949 billion yuan, enhancing its resource reserve capabilities [2]. Market Outlook - With the peak summer electricity demand approaching, coal demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [2]. - Positive changes in market demand and prices for the company's urea products are anticipated to support operational performance [2]. Future Plans - The company has outlined a 2025 valuation enhancement plan focusing on coal and coal chemical sectors, aiming to optimize market layout and business structure [2]. - The company plans to achieve a coal production target of 14.5 million tons, urea production of 803,400 tons, and caprolactam production of 110,000 tons by 2025 [3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year [3]. - Over its 26 years as a listed company, Lanhua Ketech has implemented cash dividends 23 times, totaling 7.165 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 41.02% over the past three years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhang Chuanjiang as the new chairman of CNOOC marks a significant leadership change during a critical phase of the company's "14th Five-Year" strategic plan, focusing on capital expenditure and green energy initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Change - CNOOC announced the appointment of Zhang Chuanjiang as chairman and party secretary, following the departure of former chairman Wang Dongjin [1]. - Zhang Chuanjiang has a background in coal-to-oil and coal chemical industries, with previous roles in major energy companies, including China Shenhua [1][2]. - Notably, Zhang is the only current leader among the "Big Three" oil companies who has not spent a long tenure within the oil and gas sector [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - CNOOC's annual plan for 2025 includes a capital expenditure forecast of 125 to 135 billion yuan and an oil and gas production target of 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent [2]. - The company aims to implement a green low-carbon strategy, emphasizing offshore renewable energy and the integration of offshore wind power with oil and gas production [2].

Group 1 - Zhang Chuanjiang has been appointed as the new chairman and party secretary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), previously serving as the general manager and party deputy secretary of China Datang Corporation [1][2] - The position of CNOOC chairman had been vacant for over a month prior to Zhang's appointment, following the removal of former chairman Wang Dongjin from his roles [1] - Zhang Chuanjiang has extensive experience in coal-to-oil and coal chemical industries, having held various technical and managerial positions in these fields [1] Group 2 - Zhang is the only current leader among the "Big Three" oil companies who has not spent a long tenure within the oil and gas sector, contrasting with his peers who have over 30 years of experience [2] - CNOOC is at a critical stage of implementing its 14th Five-Year Plan, with projected capital expenditures of 125 to 135 billion yuan and oil and gas production targets of 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2025 [2] - The company aims to enhance its green low-carbon strategy, focusing on offshore renewable energy and integrating offshore wind power with oil and gas production, while advancing CCS/CCUS industrialization [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Stronger oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Stronger [1] - Glass: Stronger oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market has no obvious positive drivers, but subsequent demand is expected to provide some support. The urea futures price is expected to rebound after breaking through the low point of the past five months [1]. - Soda ash supply recovers, demand is weakly stable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The soda ash futures price is expected to maintain a stronger state in the short - term, but the market will continue to face pressure in the long - term [1]. - The glass supply and demand situation has not substantially improved, but news of production restrictions, rising coal prices, and improved macro - trade environment will boost the futures market. The glass futures price is expected to be mainly in a stronger oscillation [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On June 5, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 6357, a decrease of 52 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [3]. - On June 5, the daily output of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate was 87.27%, a 6.01 - percentage - point increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [3]. - As of June 4, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons or 5.59% from last week [3]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 5, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 142 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 2539; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of the week of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the soda ash output was 704,100 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons or 2.78% week - on - week [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.627 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons or 0.17% from last Thursday [5]. - As of June 5, the average price of the float glass market was 1,207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 156,800 tons, unchanged day - on - day [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.092 million weight boxes or 3.09% month - on - month, and an increase of 20.15% year - on - year. The inventory days were 31.3 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week [6] Group 4: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen [26] - Zhang Xiaojin focuses on sugar industry research [26] - Zhang Linglu is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [26] - Sun Chengzhen is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]