Core Viewpoint - Jingxing Paper (002067) experienced a decline of 5.43% on September 22, with a trading volume of 2.797 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 37.23% [1] Trading Activity - One institutional special seat net bought 12.4635 million yuan, while three institutional special seats net sold 141 million yuan [1]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 2.32% on September 22, with Qingshan Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingshan Paper (600103) saw a significant drop of 10.07%, closing at 3.93 with a trading volume of 3.4771 million shares and a turnover of 1.373 billion [2] - Other notable declines included: - 1565 Yuan Sound (002067) down 5.43% to 6.09 [2] - Kain Shares (002012) down 3.95% to 5.59 [2] - Conversely, some stocks showed minor gains, such as Forest Packaging (605500) which increased by 0.21% to 9.51 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector experienced a net outflow of 255 million from institutional investors and 118 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 373 million [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Sun Paper (002078) had a net inflow of 14.44 million from institutional investors [3] - Qingshan Paper (600103) faced a net outflow of 48.13 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Points - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.58 points, up 0.22% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97 points, up 0.67%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 3107.89 points, up 0.55% [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume for the day reached 941.8 billion yuan for the Shanghai Composite, 1179.7 billion yuan for the Shenzhen Component, and 543.8 billion yuan for the ChiNext [1] - The sectors that performed well included precious metals, consumer electronics, and semiconductors, while sectors such as film and television, tourism and hotels, and paper-making saw declines [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Precious metals with a rise of 6.18% [2] - Consumer electronics with a rise of 2.80% [2] - Automation equipment with a rise of 1.83% [2] - The sectors that faced the most significant declines included: - Film and television with a drop of 3.42% [2] - Tourism and hotels with a drop of 3.30% [2] - Paper-making with a drop of 2.17% [2]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 19, 2025, was 5018.00 [3] - The closing prices from September 15 - 19, 2025, were 5056.00, 5068.00, 5042.00, 5014.00, and 5018.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 619.47, 621.53, 619.23, 615.54, and 615.54 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 1.32265%, 0.23734%, - 0.51302%, - 0.55534%, and 0.07978% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 609, 582, 598, 611, and 607 from September 15 - 19, 2025 [3] - The Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 624, 612, 623, 636, and 632 from September 15 - 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR) was - 136.75, for Canadian Lion (CFR) was - 510.04, and for Chilean Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was - 229.70 [4] - The port dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 780, 730, and 720 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5425, and 5625 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the national average prices for coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices for coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 16 - 19, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the change values were all 0, while the life - paper index had a change of 0, with the life - paper index on September 18 being 839 and others being 835 [4] - The profit margins for double - offset paper on September 16 - 19, 2025, were 2.0653%, 2.0989%, 2.1495%, 2.1495% respectively; for double - copper paper were 17.4005%, 17.4311%, 17.4770%, 17.4770% respectively; for white - card paper were - 12.5644%, - 12.5399%, - 12.5031%, - 12.5031% respectively; for life - paper were 7.3369%, 7.2032%, 7.2796%, 7.0505% respectively, with the change in life - paper profit margin being - 0.2291 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the coniferous - broadleaf price spreads were 1490, 1460, 1440, 1425, and 1410 respectively; coniferous - natural price spreads were 265, 250, 240, 225, and 225 respectively; coniferous - chemical mechanical price spreads were 1840, 1825, 1815, 1800, and 1800 respectively; coniferous - waste paper price spreads were 4089, 4074, 4064, 4049, and 4049 respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].

Group 1 - The company ST Morning (000488) has announced that its Shouguang base has fully resumed production [1] - The Huanggang base and Jiangxi base (second factory) are operating normally [1] - The Jiangxi base (first factory), Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base are currently under maintenance, with efforts to resume production as soon as possible [1]

Company Summary - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) shares increased by 3.42%, reaching HKD 6.05, with a trading volume of HKD 40.68 million [1] - The company announced a price adjustment across multiple bases, with increases of up to RMB 50 per ton [1] - A board meeting is scheduled for September 24 to approve the financial results for the year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The company previously issued a profit warning, expecting a profit of approximately RMB 2.1 billion to RMB 2.3 billion for the current fiscal year, representing a growth of 165% to 190% compared to last year's profit of RMB 794 million [1] Industry Summary - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the paper industry is entering its peak season in Q3, with slight price increases observed in the corrugated box paper segment [1] - There is a strong willingness among overseas pulp mills to control production, leading to a slight rebound in pulp prices, which supports paper prices [1] - The paper industry has faced challenges from weak demand and continuous new capacity additions, resulting in low operating rates and losses in some segments; however, potential supply improvements from reduced competition may enhance supply-demand dynamics [1]

Company Overview - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) shares increased by 3.42%, reaching HKD 6.05, with a trading volume of HKD 40.68 million [1] - The company announced a price adjustment across multiple bases, with the highest increase being HKD 50 per ton [1] Financial Performance - The company is set to hold a board meeting on September 24 to approve the financial results for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - Nine Dragons Paper previously issued a profit warning, expecting a profit of approximately RMB 2.1 billion to RMB 2.3 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, representing a growth of 165% to 190% compared to last year's profit of RMB 794 million [1] Industry Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the paper industry is entering its peak season in Q3, with slight price increases observed in the corrugated box paper segment [1] - There is a strong willingness among overseas pulp mills to control production, leading to a slight rebound in pulp prices, which supports paper prices [1] - The paper industry has faced challenges due to weak demand and continuous new capacity additions, resulting in low operating rates and losses in some segments; however, potential supply improvements from reduced competition may enhance supply-demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qingshan Paper Industry (SH600103) experienced a limit down on September 22, 2025, with a price of 3.93 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.07% and a total market capitalization of 8.806 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's operating revenue decreased by 15.27% year-on-year, indicating significant market pressure [2] - Operating cash flow was -66.16 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 181.62%, highlighting liquidity risks [2] - Progress on the Xuanxian Pharmaceutical project is severely lagging, with only 0.82% of the investment completed, making it difficult to meet the timeline for the first phase of the project [2] Group 2: Industry and Market Environment - Despite the addition of a small-cap concept on September 19, 2025, the company faces intense competition, with net profit growth being minimal and not standing out in the industry [2] - The paper industry is currently under pressure due to changes in market demand and fluctuations in raw material prices, affecting the overall development of the sector [2] - Related sectors, including paper and optoelectronics, have also shown poor performance recently, impacting Qingshan Paper's stock price [2] Group 3: Financial and Technical Analysis - Recent fund flows indicated that while there was net buying from retail and foreign investors on September 18, 2025, retail investors' short-term trading strategies may lead to stock price volatility [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD showing bearish signals could prompt investors to sell, contributing to the stock's limit down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].