欧洲《现代外交》网站刊文说，随着中国促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模 式，预计2026年中国经济将在高科技、智能制造、绿色能源和服务消费等领域实现显著增长。 意大利克拉斯CNBC电视频道推出特别节目，聚焦中国"十五五"规划建议。意大利国际事务研究所副主 任格雷科在节目中表示，中国以系统化的顶层设计推动科技创新，提升关键领域的技术水平，体现了中 国在新一轮全球产业变革中的主动作为。中国产业政策与科技发展规划不仅有助于维护自身产业链的安 全与韧性，也为全球产业链供应链稳定注入新动力。 2025年，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放扎实推进，高质量发展取 得新成效。多家外媒刊发报道认为，在全球经济复苏曲折乏力的背景下，中国经济将以稳健的基本面、 强劲的创新驱动力、坚定的开放姿态，携手各国共同发展繁荣，为全球发展注入稀缺的确定性。 保持稳定增长态势，为全球产供链稳定发挥关键作用 近期，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行等国际组织，高盛、德银等国际投资机构分别上调 2025年中国经济增速预期。国际社会普遍认为中国经济稳中向好、长期向好，认为中国经济基础稳、优 势多、 ...

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector has been experiencing a continuous adjustment since September, with the Hong Kong stock index related to innovative drugs declining by over 20% [1] - Some unprofitable companies in the sector have seen their stock prices drop by more than 40%, indicating a significant market reaction [1] - Investor sentiment has shifted as previously abundant capital begins to exit the market, reflecting a heightened emotional threshold among investors [1] Group 2 - The number of IPOs and the amount of financing for innovative drug companies in Hong Kong have significantly increased this year, leading to controversy among market participants [1] - Industry insiders believe that while the long-term beta logic of the innovative drug sector remains unchanged, the focus on pricing needs to return to the companies themselves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in the Hong Kong stock market has experienced a significant adjustment, with related indices dropping over 20% since September, and some unprofitable companies seeing declines exceeding 40% [1][3] Financing Growth - The number of IPOs and financing amounts for innovative drug companies in Hong Kong has surged this year, with projections indicating 114 new listings and a financing amount of approximately HKD 286.3 billion in 2025, more than triple that of 2024 [2] - The medical and pharmaceutical sector is expected to raise HKD 25.2 billion, an increase of HKD 22 billion compared to 2024 [2] - Over 50 innovative drug companies are planning to go public in Hong Kong, including those already listed on A-shares [2] Valuation Challenges - Many innovative drug companies rely heavily on secondary market financing without generating cash flow, leading to difficulties in reasonable valuation due to uncertainties in R&D progress and commercialization capabilities [2][3] - The innovative drug sector's business model lacks a strong profit generation mechanism, contributing to the decline in valuations since September [3][4] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent controversies, many fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term beta opportunities in the innovative drug sector, anticipating renewed market enthusiasm following the recent adjustments [4] - The focus on company fundamentals, such as pipeline quality and commercialization capabilities, is expected to become more critical for valuation [4] Future Catalysts - The innovative drug sector is projected to enter a stable upward trajectory in both performance and valuation, with three key catalytic phases expected in 2026 [5][6] - The first phase involves a sentiment recovery stage in late 2025 to early 2026, potentially leading to rebounds in certain stocks [6] - The second phase will focus on performance validation in early 2026, assessing whether upfront payments from business development (BD) deals improve cash flow and whether core innovative drugs achieve market penetration [6] - The third phase may initiate a valuation restructuring in the latter half of 2026, as more Chinese innovative drug companies are expected to achieve overseas commercialization [6]

Core Insights - The active equity funds in the public offering sector have achieved a remarkable annual return of 236.88% as of December 28, 2025, securing the top position for the year and potentially breaking historical performance records, becoming the highest yielding fund in public offering history [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - A total of 4,378 active equity funds were included in the statistics, with the top performer, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieving a cumulative return of 236.88%, significantly surpassing the second-place fund, Zhonghang Opportunity Navigation A, by over 60 percentage points [2] - The number of funds with returns exceeding 100% reached 72, ranking fourth in the historical context of major A-share market years since 2006 [3] - The average return for active equity funds exceeded 30%, with 3,455 funds outperforming their benchmarks, representing nearly 80% of the total [3][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The outstanding performance of active equity funds in 2025 is closely tied to the structural market conditions, particularly benefiting from sectors like AI technology, with many top-performing funds heavily invested in technology sub-sectors [5][6] - The concentration of holdings in top-performing funds is notably high, with average positions in the top ten holdings reaching 62.72%, significantly above the average of 46.2% [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a call for more sustainable performance across a broader range of funds to benefit more investors, as the current high returns are not expected to be consistently replicated [8][9] - The investment community is encouraged to adopt a more measured approach to fund investments, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than chasing high returns [8][9] - The transformation in research and investment mechanisms within the public fund industry is seen as a positive development, moving towards a dual-driven model of data and industry insights [10]

Core Insights - The essence of growth investment is to adapt to changes, requiring continuous learning and understanding of industry trends [1][2] - Liu Bin's investment strategy is based on deep industry research, focusing on long-term growth and the combination of cyclical and growth sectors [1][2] Investment Philosophy - Liu Bin believes that short-term market pricing is often efficient, but there are discrepancies in long-term industry trend understanding, leading to early investment opportunities [2] - The investment portfolio is characterized by a "large-cap growth" style, avoiding stocks with a market capitalization below 100 billion [2] - Liu Bin emphasizes the importance of industry penetration rates and technological advancements, identifying significant returns during phases of rising penetration [2] Portfolio Management - The investment approach includes diversifying across multiple sectors with favorable economic conditions to capture various industry trends [3] - Liu Bin maintains a balanced allocation across different industry stages, with the top ten sectors comprising around 60% of the portfolio [3] Focus on Core Competitiveness - The future source of excess returns is expected to come from the continuous release of engineer dividends, with China having advantages in engineer numbers and R&D costs [4] - R&D investment is a critical metric for stock selection, alongside cost control capabilities, which encompass supply chain management and production efficiency [5] Sector Focus - Liu Bin's expertise lies in the "technology manufacturing" sector, with a focus on hard tech industries such as TMT, electronics, new energy, and automotive [6] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, is seen as a significant growth area, with Chinese brands poised for substantial profits [6] - The AI industry is also a key focus, with an emphasis on domestic computing power and storage, as well as the potential of robotics as a transformative industry [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on upcoming catalysts and potential drug approvals. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with multiple domestic drugs anticipated to report key clinical data. This includes drugs from companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to read out critical clinical data in 2026 [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term theme for the innovative drug sector is international expansion, with several sub-themes to focus on, including overseas business development (BD) licensing, key clinical trials, and unexpected overseas sales growth [3][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were Dongyao Pharmaceutical (+23.15%), Beihai Kangcheng (+19.27%), Junshengtai (+16.41%), Shiyao Group (+6.95%), and Ailis (+5.78%). The top five losers were Gakos (-16.11%), Jiahe Biotech (-10.29%), Laika Pharmaceuticals (-9.33%), Yunding Xinyao (-8.98%), and Yongtai Biotech (-6.94%) [1][14]. Weekly Focused Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with high overseas expansion potential, including: 1. Companies with MNC certification and high overseas volume certainty: Sanofi, United Pharmaceuticals, and Kelun-Biotech. 2. Companies with overseas data catalysts: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and InnoCare Pharma. 3. Potential heavyweights for overseas MNC licensing: Junshi Biosciences, Shiyao Group, and Yifang Biotech. 4. New innovative drug technology breakthroughs: small nucleic acids, in vivo CAR-T, fat loss and muscle gain, autoimmune CAR-T/bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy [2][18]. Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 23 new drug or new indication applications were approved in China, and 10 new drug or new indication applications were accepted [4][19]. Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 99 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 64 new drug clinical applications were accepted [5][24]. Key Domestic Market Events - Notable events include: 1. Xiansheng Zhaoming announced a global exclusive licensing agreement with Ipsen for an ADC drug, potentially worth up to $1.06 billion. 2. He Yu Pharmaceuticals received approval for its CSF-1R selective small molecule inhibitor. 3. Tongyi Pharmaceuticals announced a licensing agreement for a peptide conjugate drug for prostate cancer, with potential payments totaling around $2 billion [10]. Key Overseas Market Events - Significant overseas events include: 1. Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a 25mg oral semaglutide tablet for weight loss. 2. Sanofi announced a cash acquisition agreement for Dynavax Technologies Corporation, valued at approximately $2.2 billion. 3. Agios Pharmaceuticals announced FDA approval for an oral PK activator for treating α or β thalassemia in adult patients [11].

当周还有一件事引发市场关注，商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套标准的指引发布。就在近期，蓝箭航天 空间科技股份有限公司（下称"蓝箭航天"）完成IPO辅导工作，被称将冲刺"商业航天第一股"。还有多 家商业航天企业启动了IPO辅导，目前处于辅导备案登记受理阶段。 一周新增受理27单IPO申请 继12月25日一天有8单IPO申请获得受理后，12月26日又有10单IPO申请集中获得受理，这2天就受理了 18单IPO申请。 在当周受理的27单IPO申请中，逾四成来自创业板。其中，优邦科技、尼索科、猎奇智能、鸿富诚、腾 励传动、墨库股份、九安智能、思仪科技、千分一9家拟IPO企业申请采用创业板第一套标准上市， 即"最近两年净利润均为正，累计净利润不低于1亿元，且最近一年净利润不低于6000万元"。 博迈医疗、托伦斯2家拟IPO企业申请采用创业板第二套标准上市，即"预计市值不低于15亿元，最近一 年净利润为正且营业收入不低于4亿元"。 这是今年下半年以来交易所受理IPO申请数量最多的一周。 年末IPO掀起受理高潮，12月22日～12月28日当周（下同），沪深北交易所新增受理27单IPO申请，成 为今年下半年以来受理IPO申请数量 ...

Group 1: Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend, with a new volatility center established in 2026[7] - The rotation between growth and value styles will be crucial for trading success in 2026[12] - In the first half of 2026, the technology growth style is anticipated to lead, with a broadening trend in growth stocks[17] Group 2: Sector and Investment Trends - AI-related products, such as AI glasses, may replicate the growth seen in TWS earphones post-2019[25] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will drive investment in emerging industries, including quantum technology and hydrogen energy[28] - Commodity prices are expected to reach a mid-term peak in the second quarter of 2026[31] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates 1-2 times in the first half of 2026, then halt cuts in the second half[39] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) negative range is expected to continue narrowing, indicating potential economic recovery[42] - Risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery and geopolitical events that could impact market stability[3]

Core Viewpoint - The SMO (Site Management Organization) landscape is stable, and the industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by the increasing demand for clinical trials and the recovery of innovative drug development [13][20][31]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.19%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.14 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 primary industries [6]. - The top ten stocks by growth this week included Hongyuan Pharmaceutical and Luyuan Pharmaceutical, with growth rates of 59.43% and 37.34% respectively [5][6]. Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and international pipelines, with a focus on companies that can deliver profits by 2025 [8]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and home medical devices are benefiting from subsidy policies [8]. - The CXO and life sciences services sector is expected to see a rebound in investment, with a focus on high-growth potential companies as the industry recovers from previous downturns [8]. SMO Industry Insights - The number of clinical trials in China is steadily increasing, with a projected 4,900 new drug clinical trials in 2024, reflecting a 13.9% year-on-year growth [17]. - The SMO industry is expected to reach a market size of 35 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the rising complexity of clinical trials and the demand for high-quality services [17][20]. - The introduction of AI technology in SMO processes is anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in labor-intensive tasks [25]. Investment Recommendations - The medical device sector is recommended for investment, particularly in imaging equipment and home medical devices, which are expected to see significant growth due to policy support and market recovery [46]. - The low-value consumables market is also showing signs of improvement, with domestic manufacturers experiencing a rebound in orders as inventory levels normalize [47]. - The pharmaceutical retail sector is poised for growth due to the acceleration of prescription outflow and an improving competitive landscape, particularly for listed chain pharmacies [53]. Specific Company Insights - Companies like Pusens and Tianzhong have shown resilience and growth in their operational metrics, with Pusens improving its gross margin from 16.23% in Q1 2025 to 25.58% by Q3 2025 [22]. - The domestic SMO market is still in its early stages, with the top five players holding approximately 25-30% market share, indicating potential for consolidation and growth [27]. - The life sciences service sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic and international demand, with a focus on companies that can leverage their capabilities for growth [52].

上述"调研清单"清晰地勾勒出当前外资在A股市场的关注焦点，即以AI为代表的科技和医药两大赛道。 高盛在近日发布的报告中表示，DeepSeek-R1的发布在2025年引发了中国科技公司的强劲反弹。从基本 面来看，高盛估计，未来十年，通过节约成本、提高生产率和创造新的收入机会，AI的广泛应用有望 推动企业盈利每年增长3%。 2025年以来，近800家外资机构合计调研A股上市公司近万次。其中，Point 72资产管理公司以263次调 研位居榜首；高盛、美银证券等国际大行的调研次数也均超过百次。从调研方向来看，科技和医药是外 资机构最为关注的两大赛道。 年内外资调研A股近万次 数据显示，截至12月26日，今年以来共有798家外资机构现身A股上市公司调研名单，合计调研9308 次。 具体来看，被称为"华尔街最疯狂赚钱机器"的Point 72资产管理公司今年以来调研A股上市公司263次， 排名首位。在2023和2024年，Point 72资产管理公司全年分别调研A股上市公司255次、259次，均为当 年外资调研榜第一位，堪称"A股调研劳模"。此外，高盛、美银证券、花旗环球等机构今年以来的调研 次数均超过100次。 从调研 ...