Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast despite the unexpected decision by the Trump administration to exempt refined copper from import tariffs [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On July 30, the White House announced a 50% universal tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1] - President Trump had previously announced on July 9 that all copper imports to the U.S. would be subject to a 50% tariff starting August 1 [1] - The White House clarified that copper input materials (such as copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes) and copper scrap are not subject to the "Section 232" or reciprocal tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that LME copper prices will drop to $9,550 per ton in August, followed by a rebound to $9,700 per ton by December [1] - Following the White House announcement, analysts expect that high U.S. cathode copper inventories will lead to an influx of cathode copper into U.S. LME warehouses, but large-scale re-exports of U.S. cathode copper are unlikely [1] Group 3: Government Focus - Analysts noted that despite the unexpected copper tariff policy, it indicates that the Trump administration remains focused on the security of copper supply [1] - The U.S. can now shift its attention to securing mineral deals overseas while gradually implementing tariff measures [1]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes Goldman Sachs' commitment to attracting diverse talent for its various departments, particularly in technology and operations, regardless of academic background [1][2][4][6] - Goldman Sachs is hosting a series of virtual recruitment events in August 2025, targeting students graduating in 2026-2027, with specific focus on engineering and operations roles [2][4][6] - The events will provide insights into the roles and experiences of employees in the technology and operations departments, along with opportunities for direct interaction and networking [2][4][6] Group 2 - The APAC Engineering Insight Day will take place on August 5-6, 2025, from 4-6 PM Beijing time, allowing participants to learn about technology applications in finance [2] - The China Engineering Academy event is scheduled for August 28, 2025, from 10-11 AM Beijing time, offering insights into career development and application tips for internships and full-time positions [4] - The Operations Virtual Insight Day is set for August 26, 2025, from 2-3 PM Beijing time, focusing on the operations department's role in supporting business development and risk management [6] Group 3 - Participation in these events is by invitation only, and selected students will receive email notifications [3][5][6] - Registration for the events can be completed through the My GS Event Portal, with specific instructions provided for creating an account and signing up [7]

Core Viewpoint - Mid-sized investment banks Evercore and Stifel maintain a positive outlook on future IPO activity in the stock market, betting on reduced market volatility and regulatory easing to stimulate stock issuance [1] Group 1: Mid-sized Investment Banks - Evercore reported a 4% increase in underwriting fees for equity and debt in Q2, reaching $32.2 million, participating in multiple IPOs and follow-on financing plans [1] - Stifel experienced a 3.7% decline in equity financing revenue, yet its CEO remains optimistic about IPOs in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Large Investment Banks - Morgan Stanley indicated an acceleration in convertible bonds, follow-on financing, and large IPO issuances by the end of the quarter [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that companies are entering the IPO market more freely, while private equity asset listings are slower; Q2 revenue from equity trading and investment banking for Goldman Sachs was strong, driving overall profit growth [1] Group 3: Other Mid-sized Investment Banks - Raymond James Financial reported a 15% year-over-year increase in equity underwriting revenue; executives stated that market sentiment improved after Trump lowered reciprocal tariffs in mid-April, making current IPO sentiment more positive than early April [1]

报告警告，这种贸易数据的剧烈波动掩盖了更深层次的经济放缓趋势。消费增长已从2024年的强劲水平明显减弱，住宅和商业投资也表现疲软， 显示家庭和企业支出正在同时降温。 贸易波动掩盖经济实质放缓 大摩指出，二季度3.0%的GDP增长表面上看似强劲，但这一数据被贸易流动的异常波动严重扭曲。进口在第一季度因关税预期而激增37.9%后， 第二季度急剧回落30.3%，净贸易为GDP贡献了5.0个百分点的增长。 美国二季度GDP表面增长亮眼，但深入分析显示这种繁荣具有欺骗性。进口量的大幅萎缩人为地抬高了整体数据，掩盖了国内需求明显放缓的事 实。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新报告指出，美国二季度GDP环比折年率增长3.0%，超出市场预期的2.5%，但这一数据因贸易因素被严重扭曲。实 际进口在第二季度骤降30.3%，这在很大程度上抵消了一季度37.9%的激增，人为提振了GDP整体数据。 作为反映经济内生动力的核心指标，国内私人最终采购增速已从前一年的2.7%骤降至1.2%，表明美国经济内部已经显现冷却迹象。 "关注最终国内销售数据，可以看出经济活动正在放缓，"摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen指出，"第二季度 ...

7月31日，中国贸促会举行7月例行新闻发布会。有记者提问，中美经贸会谈日前在瑞典举行。对此，双 方工商界有何反应？王琳洁表示，7月28日至29日，中美双方在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行了经贸会谈，双方 就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流。与 此同时，中美工商界也正在积极互动交流。她进一步介绍，7月28日至30日，应中国贸促会邀请，美中 贸易全国委员会董事会主席芮思博率团访华，代表团包括苹果公司、高盛集团、赛默飞世尔科技等多家 美国知名跨国企业高管。代表团访问北京并拜会多家部委，表示将继续扎根中国、深耕中国，以实际行 动推动两国经贸关系向前发展。(智通财经) ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs expresses concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt due to a large fiscal deficit, which is putting pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar exchange rate. However, there are signs that the U.S. stock market may continue to rise strongly [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius forecasts a year-on-year GDP growth of approximately 1% for the fourth quarter, with a recession risk estimated at 30%, double the historical average. Economic growth is expected to remain slow [2] - Despite minimal price impact from import tariffs so far, core inflation is projected to rise by about 1 percentage point this year, exceeding 3%, which will pressure consumer spending that is already stagnant [2] Fiscal Deficit Impact - The current U.S. budget deficit is around $2 trillion, approximately 6-7% of GDP, at a historical high outside of recession periods. Concerns over the deficit are starting to affect the prices of long-term U.S. government bonds, leading investors to demand higher returns [2][3] - The view on U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven asset is being questioned, as their performance has not aligned with expectations in recent months [3] Investment Sentiment - Goldman Sachs' global co-head of banking and markets, Ashok Varadhan, notes that U.S. Treasury yields have risen, making them attractive to private investors, contrasting with the negative real interest rates seen during the global financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - Varadhan anticipates a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve as the Federal Reserve lowers policy rates, raising questions about the adequacy of data to support either minor or significant monetary policy easing [3] Currency and Asset Valuation - Due to fiscal concerns, many investors are becoming more pessimistic about the dollar, with Goldman Sachs predicting further depreciation. However, the U.S. is not alone in facing large budget deficits among developed markets [4] - Varadhan suggests that the value of assets like gold and Bitcoin may rise relative to fiat currencies [4] Stock Market Outlook - Despite rising deficits potentially challenging long-term U.S. Treasury yields, net stimulus measures may boost GDP growth in the short term. Significant investments in artificial intelligence could help maintain corporate earnings resilience [5] - Varadhan remains strongly bullish on the U.S. stock market, emphasizing the importance of regulatory easing and the ability to attract top talent to the labor market for economic growth [5]

Group 1 - Smaller investment banks like Evercore Inc. and Stifel Financial Corp. are optimistic about the stock capital market for the remainder of the year, predicting increased IPO activity due to reduced market volatility and relaxed regulations from the White House [1] - Evercore reported a 4% year-over-year increase in underwriting fees for stocks and bonds in Q2, reaching $32.2 million, and expects positive IPO trends to continue into the second half of the year [1] - Stifel's stock financing revenue decreased by 3.7% to $46.2 million, but the CEO remains optimistic about the IPO recovery, citing strong private equity-driven follow-on financing [5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported record revenue in its stock trading division for Q2, reaching $4.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by approximately $600 million, and its investment banking revenue unexpectedly surged to $2.19 billion [6] - Raymond James Financial experienced a 15% year-over-year increase in stock underwriting revenue, with executives noting improved market sentiment compared to early April [6]

Core Insights - The apparent growth in the US GDP for Q2 is misleading, primarily due to a significant drop in imports which artificially inflated the overall data, masking a slowdown in domestic demand [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5%, but this figure is heavily distorted by trade fluctuations [2][4] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The core indicator of domestic economic strength, private final domestic purchases, saw a sharp decline in growth from 2.7% the previous year to 1.2%, indicating a cooling in both household consumption and business investment [5] - Consumer spending showed a modest recovery, with actual personal consumption rising from 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, yet it remains significantly below 2024 levels [5] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment growth significantly slowed in Q2, with construction investment declining by 10.3% following a 2.4% drop in Q1, and residential investment also fell by 4.6% [6] - Unexpectedly, business investment related to artificial intelligence underperformed expectations, with declines in power plant investments and a slowdown in data center and IT investments [6] Economic Outlook - Despite the better-than-expected Q2 GDP data, Morgan Stanley maintains a forecast of economic slowdown, predicting that the negative impacts of restrictive trade and immigration policies will outweigh the benefits from fiscal policy and deregulation [7] - The forecast for Q4 2025 shows a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0%, with 2026 growth expected at 1.1%, significantly lower than the strong performance anticipated in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has initiated a series of offline seminars to discuss and exchange views on these topics with experts from various fields [1] Group 2: Event Details - The seminar in Beijing has concluded successfully, and the Shanghai seminar is set to begin, focusing on the challenges and potential opportunities faced by Chinese companies in M&A processes in 2025 [1] - The agenda includes discussions on the review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year, thoughts on outbound M&A by Chinese enterprises, risks and challenges in the Indonesian market, and financial risks and management under the backdrop of tariff wars [2][4] Group 3: Key Speakers - Xiang Chen, Co-Head of International Business and Executive General Manager at Huatai United Securities, has nearly 15 years of experience in overseas investment and cross-border M&A, leading numerous projects across various regions and industries [5] - Luo Xingguo, a professor at Zhejiang University, specializes in derivatives, green finance, and credit risk, with extensive research and publication experience [6] - Huang Xuchun, a partner at Global Law Firm, has significant experience in M&A and cross-border licensing transactions, particularly in the life sciences and healthcare sectors [7]

Economic Growth Forecast - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic momentum in the first half of the year [1][2][5] - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was reported at 5.3%, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by strong exports and supportive fiscal measures [2][6] - The IMF also adjusted the 2026 growth forecast for China upward by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% [2] Foreign Investment and Market Confidence - Over a dozen international financial institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China, with notable increases from Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs, indicating strong foreign confidence in China's economic prospects [7][8] - In the first five months of the year, direct investment and securities investment in China saw significant increases, with net inflows of $127.3 billion and a 46% quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter [7][8] Global Economic Context - The IMF has slightly raised global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively, amid ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions [9] - The report emphasizes the need for countries to collaborate pragmatically to reduce trade and investment barriers, highlighting the evolving global trade environment as countries seek alternatives to the U.S. market [1][10] Structural Reforms and Policy Support - China's government has been implementing strategic measures to promote economic growth, focusing on structural reforms and sustainable growth rather than short-term recovery [6][7] - The core inflation rate in China is projected to remain low at 0.5% in 2025, providing room for monetary and fiscal policy flexibility [5][6]