Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Disturbances Resurface, Copper Prices Correct from Highs [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted production due to a mudslide accident, and Freeport expects copper production and sales in Q4 2025 to decline significantly. The long - term supply - demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, and the supply tightening will keep the copper market in a tight balance. The impact of the Grasberg shutdown on copper supply - demand and prices may be long - term, and the long - term price center will continue to rise. However, the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. In the domestic market, high copper prices have weakened consumption, but the low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. Copper prices may stabilize after a short - term adjustment and maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production due to a mudslide. In September, the domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the imported CIF crude copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. As of October 10, the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 40.70 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 50.9 tons, a 6.04% increase. In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 11.62% year - on - year increase but a 4.31% month - on - month decrease due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [5] - **Demand Side**: The recovery of downstream consumption during the peak season was limited, and high copper prices suppressed demand. As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 43.44%, a 30.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 16.99 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory increased slightly after the holiday. As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory was 10.97 tons, a 15.42% week - on - week increase. As of October 9, domestic social copper inventory was 166,300 tons, a 12.14% week - on - week increase. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, a 0.77% week - on - week decrease, and COMEX copper inventory was 33,950 short tons, a 3.81% week - on - week increase [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Grasberg mine shutdown, copper prices initially rose sharply but then dropped significantly due to Sino - US trade tensions. Long - term supply - demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [7] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: New policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan; China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8; the PBOC increased its gold holdings by 40,000 ounces in September; the US government "shut down" on October 1, affecting economic data release; US September ADP employment decreased by 32,000; US September ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry; Goldman Sachs lowered its copper supply forecast after the Grasberg mine disruption; Peru's Antamina expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons; Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project will start construction in October; Chile's Codelco's August copper production dropped 25% [16] 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: After the holiday, the spot copper market was quiet. As the weekend approached, the spot purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai copper market picked up, and the premium stabilized. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper price difference decreased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [19] - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 10, the Shanghai copper futures position was 216,115 lots, a 1.05% increase from before the holiday, and the average daily trading volume was 175,142 lots, a 18.93% increase. As of October 3, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 14,672.88 lots, a 146.77% week - on - week increase. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [25] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production, and Q4 2025 copper production and sales are expected to decline. In September, domestic and imported crude copper processing fees decreased. As of October 10, the copper concentrate port inventory increased slightly. In September, electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [34] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped significantly. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. High copper prices and trade policies affected the operating rates of some products [37] - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 10, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.99, and the loss on copper spot imports widened slightly. In August, refined copper, scrap copper, and unforged copper and copper product imports increased year - on - year [41] - **Inventory**: As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory increased, domestic social copper inventory increased slightly, LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory increased [48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software is seen as a significant escalation in the US-China trade conflict, which could have profound implications for bilateral trade and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Rates - Since the onset of the trade war, US tariff revenue has surged, becoming the fourth largest source of federal revenue, following individual income tax, social security tax, and corporate income tax [6] - From January to June 2025, the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2.2% to 8.9%, with a notable rise in April due to expanded tariffs on a global scale [8][14] - By August 2025, US tariff revenue reached $144.4 billion, 2.8 times that of the previous year, accounting for 4.0% of federal revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 2: Tariff Rates by Trade Partner - The actual average tariff rate imposed by the US on China reached 37.4% by June 2025, with significant increases observed for labor-intensive goods and products affected by Section 232 tariffs [24][29] - The average tariff rates for Japan and South Korea were 15.3% and 12.0%, respectively, while rates for the EU, Vietnam, and India ranged between 5% and 10% [24] - The US has seen a decline in its reliance on Chinese imports, with the share of imports from China dropping to 9.4% of total imports, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [28] Group 3: Trade Performance and Deficits - In the first seven months of 2025, US imports grew by 10.7% and exports by 4.8%, but the trade deficit expanded by 21.3% [19] - The US experienced a decline in trade volume with China and Canada, with imports from China down by 18.9% and exports down by 20.2% [19][20] - Despite high tariffs on China, the overall trade deficit with other countries has increased, indicating that the US still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand [20] Group 4: Future Tariff Trends - The actual tariff rates are expected to converge with nominal rates as various loopholes and exemptions are closed, leading to an increase in effective tariff rates across different economies [33][34] - Factors such as preemptive imports and exemptions for certain goods have contributed to the current lower effective tariff rates, but these are anticipated to diminish over time [33][35]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) experienced a decline of over 6%, closing at HKD 34.18 with a trading volume of HKD 1.313 billion, influenced by renewed U.S. tariff threats on Chinese goods [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On October 10, former President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on key software, leading to significant drops in copper prices [1] - Both domestic and international copper prices fell sharply, with Shanghai copper and LME copper both declining by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Hualian Futures suggests that despite short-term negative impacts, the strong demand for copper as an essential raw material for the new economy will drive long-term price increases, presenting a buying opportunity during price corrections [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that while they remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, short-term price increases are limited to USD 11,000 per ton due to an oversupply in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed outlook for various metals, with specific attention to the strategic importance of rare earths and the impact of supply chain adjustments on prices [1][5]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [2]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [2]. - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises increased by 1.41 percentage points to 53.04%, with expectations for further increases next week [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [3]. - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, influenced by demand release and unclear orders [3]. Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [4][5]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the U.S. government shutdown and economic indicators reflecting a slowdown in employment growth [4][5]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89% this week, with China's control over rare earths being upgraded, enhancing the sector's strategic attributes [1][5]. - The implementation of the "Interim Measures" is expected to gradually show effects on supply adjustments [1][5]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the sector, highlighting companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [1][5]. Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering, indicating a potential price turning point [5]. - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant wires may boost demand for antimony [5]. Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16% due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, leading to supply disruptions [6]. - The report anticipates that tin prices will remain strong despite macroeconomic fluctuations [6]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged, with a 17.8% increase to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [6].

Group 1 - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.01% on October 13, with a stock price of 18.60 CNY per share, a trading volume of 1.757 billion CNY, a turnover rate of 4.65%, and a total market capitalization of 37.267 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on May 15, 1998, and listed on June 2, 1998, is primarily engaged in copper exploration, mining, smelting, precious metals and rare metals extraction and processing, sulfur chemical industry, and trading [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes cathode copper at 74.00%, other products at 12.42%, precious metals at 12.24%, and sulfuric acid at 1.33% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yunnan Copper, a fund under Southern Fund holds a significant position, with the Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) increasing its holdings by 2.8995 million shares in the second quarter, totaling 20.7629 million shares, which represents 1.04% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for the Southern CSI 500 ETF today is approximately 20.3476 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was established on February 6, 2013, with a current scale of 113.438 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 31.05%, ranking 1735 out of 4220 in its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The initiative for pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction is crucial for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as well as for promoting a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The Baiyin High-tech Zone in Gansu has been selected as a pilot for collaborative innovation in pollution reduction and carbon reduction by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Main Practices and Achievements - A multi-party collaborative mechanism has been established, forming a working group led by the People's Bank of China Baiyin Branch, which includes various local institutions. This mechanism promotes horizontal connectivity, vertical integration, and internal-external collaboration [2] - A "carbon reduction equals cost reduction" mechanism has been implemented to promote the expansion of green loans. Financial institutions are guided to provide preferential terms for loans to enterprises engaged in pollution reduction and carbon reduction [2] - An information-sharing mechanism has been developed, resulting in the establishment of a project database containing 60 pollution reduction and carbon reduction projects, with 85% of these projects achieving financing connections, totaling 11.46 billion yuan in credit and 1.64 billion yuan in loans disbursed [3] - A demonstration mechanism has been established with the formulation of the "Copper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines," which provides reference for enterprises and financial institutions in recognizing transformation projects [3] - An innovative "credit for innovation" financing mechanism has been explored to enhance financing credibility for enterprises in industrial parks, addressing financing difficulties [3] - A financing supervision and coordination mechanism has been implemented to provide close service and direct engagement with enterprises, ensuring effective financial support for pollution reduction and carbon reduction [4] Existing Issues - High risks associated with pollution reduction and carbon reduction projects make evaluation challenging. Many enterprises lack comprehensive pollution monitoring systems, complicating data acquisition and risk assessment [5] - Insufficient innovation in financial products and services, along with inadequate incentive mechanisms, limits the depth and breadth of financial support for pollution reduction and carbon reduction projects [5] - A shortage of talent in the transformation finance sector and difficulties in implementing transformation finance standards hinder progress [6] Recommendations - Improve carbon emission information disclosure by enterprises and establish evaluation mechanisms for transformation finance projects. Strengthening regulatory oversight and developing a unified carbon emission data monitoring platform are recommended [7] - Innovate financial products and services while optimizing incentive mechanisms for financial institutions. The government could establish special funds to support collaborative innovation projects in pollution reduction and carbon reduction [8] - Promote the implementation of local transformation finance standards and enhance the training of interdisciplinary talent to support the development and execution of these standards [8]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 铜价冲高回落 但持续下跌空间有限后市或仍相对偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观方面，2025-10-11当周，关税方面，美国总统特朗普称将于11月1日起，对中国进口商品加征100%的新关税， 此税率为在现有已支付关税基础上额外增加的部分；此外美国也会在同日对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制；关税 风险显著升温。美国政府方面，美国共和党提出的结束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数，法案未 获通过；美国总统特朗普表示他计划削减一些受民主党欢迎的联邦项目；美国整体财政风险仍较为突出。美联储 方面，9月议息会议纪要显示联储内部对于未来降息路径分歧愈发明显，尽管多数官员支持年内进一步降息，但仍 有7名官员认为无需再降息，支持更大幅度降息50个基点的仅有美联储理事米兰；市场强化了对10月继续降息的定 价，Fedwatch显示10月降息25BP概率已达98.3%。矿端方面，2025-10-11当周，适逢中国国庆长假及结构首个交易 日，且LME伦敦会议临近，铜精矿现货市场交投清淡。节前Sierra Gorda招标结果显示，2025年1万吨成交于-90美 元，2026年2万吨为- ...

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

Group 1 - A-share market is experiencing a new upward momentum after a period of consolidation, with expectations for a "red October" driven by easing trading congestion and upcoming significant meetings [1][4] - As of October 10, major A-share indices showed declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94% to 3897.03 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.70% to 13355.42 points, indicating profit-taking in previous hot sectors like AI and solid-state batteries [1][4] - Despite the overall market decline, the number of rising stocks (2774) exceeded the number of falling stocks (2536), suggesting continued high levels of market activity [4] Group 2 - Resource sector stocks showed mixed performance, with precious metals experiencing significant declines, while copper stocks remained active, driven by high demand from AI and energy sectors [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures reached a new high of $11,000 per ton, approaching historical highs, indicating strong demand driven by infrastructure needs and electric vehicles [2] - Coal prices have rebounded to 700 yuan per ton due to supply constraints, with expectations for prices to exceed 900 yuan per ton by year-end as demand shifts from electricity to non-electric uses [2] Group 3 - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to shift market focus towards sectors with improving profitability, particularly in AI, advanced manufacturing, and financials [4] - The current liquidity environment remains favorable, with low interest rates continuing to drive investment into high-growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [5]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.86% over the past two trading days [1] - In September 2025, new A-share accounts reached 2.94 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 61%, with a total of 20.15 million new accounts opened in the first three quarters of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [1] Weekly Stock Performance - Over 2,900 stocks rose this week, with 18 stocks increasing by more than 20%. The largest gain was seen in Guanzhong Ecological, which rose by 36.14% [2] - The sectors with the most stocks gaining over 20% included non-ferrous metals, construction decoration, and machinery equipment, each contributing three stocks to the list [2] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with 66 stocks appearing on the weekly leaderboard, net buying 38 stocks and net selling 28 stocks. Ten stocks saw net purchases exceeding 110 million yuan [3] - The stock with the highest net purchase was Ganfeng Lithium, amounting to 578 million yuan, with a weekly increase of 5.01% and a turnover rate of 23.63% [3][4] Notable Announcements - China Power Construction signed a significant contract worth approximately 11.719 billion yuan [6] - Jingu Co., Ltd. entered into a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ninebot Technology to collaborate on new material research and application in service robots [7] Earnings Forecasts - Several companies reported strong earnings forecasts for the third quarter, including: - Yuyuan New Materials, with a projected net profit increase of 101% to 127% year-on-year - Huace Navigation, expecting a net profit increase of 23.17% to 27.02% year-on-year - Allwinner Technology, anticipating a net profit increase of 213% to 307% year-on-year [8]