London shares began the week on a subdued note on Monday, with gains in metal miners offsetting losses in industrial stocks, as caution lingered in markets after recent geopolitical turbulence. ...

铜陵有色公告，公司目前生产经营情况正常，公司内部经营环境未发生重大变化。近期，公司主产品中 阴极铜、黄金、白银等产品的市场价格累计涨幅较大，铜精矿加工费低位运行。截至本公告披露日，米 拉多铜矿二期工程正式投产的时间尚不确定，预计将对公司2026年的经营业绩产生一定影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the old-for-new policy in Shenzhen has significantly boosted local consumption, particularly benefiting both local residents and Hong Kong visitors who can take advantage of dual policies such as tax refunds and discounts [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumption - The old-for-new policy, combined with the New Year holiday effect, has rapidly stimulated the local consumption market in Shenzhen [1]. - In 2025, Shenzhen saw a substantial increase in the number of tax refund stores, with over 1,000 new stores opened, bringing the total to over 2,000 [3]. - The introduction of the first city duty-free store in Shenzhen on August 26, 2025, marked a new phase in the inbound consumption market, featuring a variety of domestic products [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Visitors' Spending Trends - In 2025, the total number of inbound and outbound personnel through Shenzhen-Hong Kong land ports reached 264 million, with Hong Kong and Macau residents accounting for over 60% [4]. - The consumption behavior of Hong Kong visitors has shifted from low-priced items to a broader range of products, including electronics and luxury goods, driven by tax refund policies [5][7]. - The average spending per transaction for Hong Kong visitors is now between 5,300 to 6,000 yuan, with higher-priced items like computers seeing significant sales [10]. Group 3: Retail Environment Enhancements - Shenzhen's commercial establishments are enhancing the shopping environment for Hong Kong visitors by implementing bilingual services, optimizing payment methods, and providing shuttle services from ports to shopping centers [14][15]. - The establishment of specialized teams in shopping malls, such as the one in Shenzhen MixC, focuses on improving services for Hong Kong visitors and expanding tax refund operations [16]. - Despite the improvements, there are still areas for enhancement, such as better information dissemination and language support for Hong Kong visitors [17]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The consumption trends driven by Hong Kong visitors are influencing other cities, with officials from places like Xiamen and Wuhan seeking to learn from Shenzhen's practices in tax refunds and visitor services [18].

Core Viewpoint - Manganese X Energy Corp. supports the formation of G7-anchored buyer's clubs for critical minerals to secure ethical and resilient supply chains for the global energy transition [1][2]. Group 1: G7 Buyer's Clubs - The G7 buyer's clubs aim to aggregate demand and support long-term offtake commitments, enhancing demand certainty and reducing financing risk for credible producers [2]. - This strategy signifies a shift from spot markets to long-term strategic contracting for critical mineral supply [2]. Group 2: Impact on Battery Materials Sector - The establishment of G7-anchored critical minerals buyer's clubs could significantly benefit the battery materials sector by accelerating the development of localized, traceable, and ESG-compliant battery-grade manganese [3]. - Manganese X is currently engaged in a prefeasibility study for its Canadian Battery Hill manganese project, aligning with this strategic initiative [3]. Group 3: Battery Hill Project - The Battery Hill project in New Brunswick, Canada, is strategically located with access to clean power and established infrastructure, containing one of the largest manganese carbonate deposits in North America [4]. - Battery-grade manganese is increasingly recognized as essential for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with high-purity processing capacity being limited [5]. Group 4: Importance of Critical Minerals - Critical minerals, including manganese, are foundational to modern economies, supporting electric vehicles, energy storage, renewable power generation, and advanced manufacturing [6]. - Despite geological abundance, supply-chain risks are heightened due to concentrated refining and processing capacities often located outside G7 jurisdictions [6]. Group 5: Company Activities - Manganese X is advancing its exploration activities, engineering studies, process optimization, and strategic engagement with industry and government stakeholders [7]. - The company's mission is to advance the Battery Hill project into production, aiming to become the first publicly traded manganese mining company in Canada and the U.S. to commercialize EV-compliant high-purity manganese [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic outlook, interest rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets Core Insights US Rates - Yields are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a forecast for 2-year yields around 3.60% and 10-year yields at 4.25% by 1H26, and 3.85% and 4.35% by YE26 respectively [10][33] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts in 1H26, with a target range for the funds rate of 3.25-3.5% by 1Q26 [10][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.5% in 1Q26 before easing to 4.3% by 4Q26 [10] International Rates - Growth in developed markets (DM) is expected to remain at or above potential, with inflation gradually declining but remaining above target in some areas [4] - Central banks in DM are likely to pause or conclude easing cycles in 1H26, with specific forecasts for 10-year yields: 4.35% for UST, 2.75% for Bunds, and 4.75% for gilts by 4Q26 [4][36] Commodities - The oil market is expected to stabilize due to rising demand and production cuts, with a bullish outlook for gold projected to reach $5,000/oz [6] - Agricultural stock-to-use ratios are expected to remain low, indicating potential supply constraints [6] Currencies - A bearish bias on the USD is anticipated, driven by positive growth in the rest of the world (RoW) and US twin deficits [52] - Preference for high beta/yielding currencies, with key themes including global procyclicality and synchronized central bank pauses [53] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to experience lower macro volatility, supporting local markets in 2026 [6] - Growth and inflation in EM are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing [6] Additional Important Insights - The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [17][20] - The demand for Treasuries is shifting towards more price-sensitive investors, which may help keep long-term yields anchored at higher levels [29] - The passage of the OBBBA raised the debt limit by $5 trillion, expected to last until the second half of 2027 [23] - Seasonal patterns suggest a gradual decrease in bill sizes into December, followed by a rebound as corporate taxes lift the Treasury General Account (TGA) [21][23] Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a cautious but stable environment for interest rates, commodities, and currencies, with specific attention to the evolving dynamics in emerging markets and the implications of fiscal policies on Treasury demand and yields.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **Mining and Metals** industry, with a specific emphasis on **China's economic outlook** and its implications for the sector [2][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **China's GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" GDP growth for 2026, with a likely revision to "at least 4.5%" for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The forecast for real growth in 2026 is set at **4.7%**, down from approximately **5%** in 2025 [2][6][8]. - **Deflationary Pressures**: Persistent deflationary pressures are highlighted, with expectations of a **CPI** average of **0.7%** in 2026 and continued **PPI** deflation due to excess supply [11][14]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The central government budget deficit is projected at **4%** of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) near **11%**. Incremental support for consumption is expected to be modest at **0.5%** of GDP [11][13]. - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to maintain a cautious easing path, with one **10 basis point** policy rate cut in each half of the year [2][16]. - **Housing Market Correction**: The housing market correction is expected to persist into 2026, with new home sales, starts, and prices continuing to contract without major policy support [3][15]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Impact on Metals Demand**: The emphasis on advanced manufacturing, AI, and electrical grid investment in the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to positively influence demand for base metals, particularly copper. The top pick in the EMEA Mining & Steel sector is **Antofagasta**, projected to benefit from approximately **30%** copper volume growth by 2029 [3][23]. - **Export Growth**: After strong growth in 2025, nominal export growth is expected to slow to about **3.4%** in 2026, with net exports contributing roughly **1.0 percentage point** to GDP growth [6][7]. Additional Important Points - **Geopolitical Risks**: The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with increased focus on spheres of influence and potential impacts on global commodities. The recent U.S.-China summit resulted in lower bilateral tariffs, but the sustainability of such arrangements remains uncertain [10][18][19]. - **AI Integration**: China's AI adoption is a core pillar of its economic strategy, with a focus on integrating AI across industries. However, productivity gains are expected to be incremental and dependent on effective workflow integration [17][9]. Companies Discussed - **Antofagasta**: Rated as Overweight (OW) with a target price reflecting strong growth potential in copper production [23]. - **First Quantum Minerals Ltd**: Also discussed in the context of investment opportunities within the mining sector [23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the implications for the mining and metals industry, particularly in relation to China's economic policies and market conditions.

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten mining industry is facing challenges due to national quota restrictions and environmental enforcement, yet actual production has exceeded quotas significantly, leading to persistent price volatility [2][3] - Rapid growth in industries such as automotive and integrated circuits post-May 2025 has resulted in a sharp increase in tungsten demand, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and driving prices up [2][5] Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - From 2000 to 2017, China's military and civilian equipment saw significant advancements, increasing tungsten demand [2] - The tungsten concentrate market experienced synchronized growth in demand and supply from 2000 to 2014, but oversupply due to new and expanded mines suppressed price increases [9][10] - Since the 2020s, emerging applications in photovoltaic materials, semiconductors, and electric vehicles have significantly impacted tungsten demand [13] Price Trends - Tungsten prices surged after May 2025 primarily due to worsening supply-demand imbalances, despite government quota reductions [5][6] - Historical data indicates that as long as demand continues to grow rapidly and supply cannot keep pace, prices will remain high or increase further [7] Production Challenges - Mining capacity has been declining since 2021 due to resource depletion and safety issues, leading to reduced processing volumes [14] - The recycling rate of waste materials has improved but is nearing its limit, which may further widen the supply-demand gap and push prices up [14][15] Market Responses - The government and companies have implemented measures to stabilize the tungsten concentrate market, including stockpiling and auctioning [12] - The price transmission in the tungsten product market appears to be smooth, with companies able to pass on costs to consumers [18] Future Outlook - In 2026, tungsten prices are expected to continue rising due to tight supply, although some relief may come from the gradual release of capacity from smaller mines in the latter half of the year [16][17] - New tungsten mining projects in China are anticipated to come online between 2026 and 2027, potentially adding 30,000 to 40,000 tons of supply [21] Waste Recycling and Import Restrictions - The ban on solid waste imports since January 2021 has tightened domestic waste supply, impacting recycling rates negatively [19] - If China relaxes its solid waste import ban, it could help balance global supply-demand dynamics and stabilize domestic prices [20] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of rising demand, supply constraints, and regulatory challenges, with future price movements heavily dependent on the interplay between these factors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining and Production - **Key Players**: Major copper mining countries include Chile (23%), Peru (12%), DRC (14%), China (8%), and the US (6%) [3][76]. The largest copper companies globally in 2025 are Codelco, BHP, and Freeport, accounting for approximately 6%, 6%, and 4% of the market respectively [3][76]. Supply Dynamics - **Global Production**: In 2025, global refined copper production was approximately 28 million tons (mt), consisting of about 23mt from mine production and 5mt from secondary supply [3]. Mine production is identified as the structural constraint to copper production rather than smelting or refining [3]. - **Fragmentation**: The copper mining sector is relatively fragmented with over 400 operational copper mines, where the top 10 miners account for around 40% of the total market [3]. - **Future Supply Growth**: Supply growth is expected to remain close to zero in 2025, driven by limited new project approvals and declining copper capital expenditures [73]. Forecasted mine supply growth for 2026 is less than 1% [73]. Demand Dynamics - **Demand Breakdown**: China is the largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 50% of total demand, followed by Europe (15%) and North America (9%) [4][41]. Key end-use sectors include electrical networks (25%), construction (25%), and automotive [4][41]. - **Growth Drivers**: Future demand growth is expected to be driven by energy transition applications, including renewable power generation and automotive electrification (EVs) [4][52]. Over the past 30 years, copper demand has grown at an average rate of 2.5% per annum [4]. Energy Transition Impact - **Role in Energy Transition**: Copper is critical for electrification and is a key material in solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage systems [52]. The demand from energy transition applications is projected to account for approximately 40% of global copper demand by 2025 [53]. - **Forecasts**: The report estimates that demand from electric vehicles (1.8mt) and renewables (2.9mt) will account for about 14% of global demand in 2025 [53]. Supply Disruptions - **Historical Disruptions**: Copper mine supply has historically struggled to meet guidance, with disruptions remaining elevated at over 5% in 2025 due to issues at major mines [90]. Disruptions have included strikes, technical challenges, and adverse weather conditions [90]. Project Pipeline and Future Outlook - **Project Development**: The number of large 'Tier 1' copper mines is decreasing, but there is a strong incentive to invest in new projects due to the increasing demand for copper [96]. The report anticipates more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and an acceleration in project development to fill the project pipeline [100]. - **Incentive Price**: The report suggests that an incentive price of $5.0/lb is necessary to generate acceptable returns on new projects, reflecting a 15-20% increase in the incentive price curve over the last two years [104]. Conclusion - The copper industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by strong demand driven by energy transition, constrained supply growth, and significant project development challenges. The interplay between these factors will shape the future dynamics of the copper market.

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver hitting $107, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [1][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with a net buying of 45 tons reported in November, maintaining a high level compared to previous months [3] - The Chinese central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7.415 million ounces, which boosts market confidence [3] Group 2 - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to weakened dollar credit and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased safe-haven demand [3] - Industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc are also experiencing price increases, driven by low global inventories and anticipated recovery in the Chinese economy [3][4] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF has been strong, with a one-year increase of 128.68%, indicating high price elasticity and responsiveness to rising metal prices [5]

机构认为，短期春季行情继续进行中，A股维持震荡偏强趋势。 【财经日历】 ►►证监会近日同意上海国际能源交易中心20号胶期权、低硫燃料油期权、国际铜期权注册。证监会将督促上海国际能源交易中心做好各项准备工作，确保 上述品种的平稳推出和稳健运行。 ►►中国证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，自2026年3月1日起施行。《指引》共六章二十一条，主要内容包括：一是突出业绩比较 基准的表征作用，强调业绩比较基准运用的严肃性和稳定性。明确业绩比较基准应当与基金合同约定的核心要素和产品投资风格相匹配，一经选定不得随意 变更。二是强化基金管理人的内部控制和管理。明确业绩比较基准应当由公司管理层决策确定，基金管理人应当建立健全内控机制和管理体系，加强对基金 经理、基金产品投资风格稳定性的持续管理。三是加强对业绩比较基准的外部约束。明确基金托管人的监督职责，规范基金销售机构、基金评价机构对业绩 比较基准的展示、运用等行为，要求基金管理人、基金销售机构做好投资者教育等工作。四是严格监管。中国证监会及其派出机构依法对基金管理人、基金 托管人、基金销售机构、基金评价机构及从业人员的违法违规行为进行处理。 ►►上期所发布 ...