文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 5 月出口整体来看，考虑到前期抢出口以及 5 月上半月高关税的压力，全月同比 4.8% ，并不算低。按照 《出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法——4月进出口数据 点评》 分析框架， 5 月贸易数据反映出的或是： 3 ）后续从高频来看， 6 月整体出口量增速或边际回落，仍具韧性，中国对美国直接出口或有所反弹。此外，欧盟或是重要增量（其制造业 PMI 未来产出预 期指数持续回升，或指向工业生产的复苏）。 报告摘要 一、"β、α"二分法看 5 月出口 （一）需求（β）风险如何？ 事项 5 月，中国美元计价出口同比 4.8% ，基本符合彭博一致预期 5% ， 4 月同比 8.1% ；美元计价进口同比 -3.4% ，弱于彭博一致预期 -0.9% ， 4 月同比 -0.2% 。 1 ）对于β风险，通俗来说即美国进口崩盘的风险。目前从美国进口数据来看，还暂看不出风险的爆发，但是景气前瞻指标和高频都指向美国进口或面临持续 趋弱的压力。 2 ）对于α风险，即中国市场份额损失风 ...

Overall Requirements - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts and the spirit of the 20th National Congress, focusing on comprehensive implementation of new development concepts and balancing development with security [1] Education, Technology, and Talent System Reform - The article highlights the need for efficient collaboration between industry, academia, and research, advocating for the role of leading technology enterprises as "problem solvers" [2] - It discusses the exploration of new compensation management systems for research institutions and the reform of research funding management [2] - The article calls for the integration of education and industry to cultivate high-quality, innovative talents, particularly in engineering and technology fields [3] - It mentions the importance of enhancing support mechanisms for overseas talent recruitment and providing greater autonomy to employers in managing talent [3] Empowering the Real Economy - The article outlines the establishment of incentive mechanisms for financial services to support the real economy, including pilot projects for integrated financial services in technology industries [4] - It discusses the innovation of systems to support emerging industries, including the establishment of a comprehensive service system for technology transfer and commercialization [4] - The article emphasizes the need for market-oriented reforms in data elements, including the exploration of data trading and circulation mechanisms [5][6] Open Economic System - The article advocates for the optimization of goods trade and the support of new business models, particularly in customs facilitation and trade logistics [7] - It highlights the importance of enhancing service trade and exploring pilot projects for high-value, environmentally friendly services [7] - The article discusses the need for improved mechanisms for personnel mobility, including reforms to facilitate the practice of professionals from Hong Kong and Taiwan in Shenzhen [7] Governance Model - The article emphasizes the need for improved public service levels, particularly in healthcare and drug regulation [8] - It discusses the reform of land and natural resource management systems to enhance efficiency and sustainability [8] - The article highlights the importance of judicial reforms to establish a comprehensive mechanism for resolving commercial disputes [9] Implementation and Evaluation - The article stresses the importance of strong leadership and coordination in implementing reform measures, ensuring that tasks are effectively executed [10] - It calls for the establishment of a robust evaluation and promotion system for pilot reform experiences, ensuring timely adjustments to ineffective measures [10]

Group 1 - Global financial markets are in a rare "triple risk" waiting mode, with investors closely monitoring the outcomes of the US-China trade talks, the US May CPI data, and the US Treasury auctions [1][2] - The performance of the upcoming US Treasury auctions is critical, especially after the previous 20-year Treasury auction faced a "failed bid," leading to heightened sensitivity regarding long-term Treasury demand [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is a key anchor rate for global financial assets, and a poor auction performance could push the yield above the critical threshold of 4.5%, potentially triggering a systemic sell-off in risk assets [2] Group 2 - The market expects the CPI data to rebound, and any significant increase could prompt investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline, making CPI a crucial indicator for global markets [1] - The upcoming Treasury auction results will not only impact the bond market but also serve as a barometer for global financial stability, especially in the context of concurrent US-China trade negotiations and CPI data releases [2] - Various asset classes are exhibiting signs of unease, with the A-share market showing strong caution, increased volatility in US stock futures, and a renewed appeal for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1 - The recent China-US economic talks in Switzerland have yielded substantial progress, with both sides reaching important consensus [3][6][21] - China emphasized the mutual benefits of the economic relationship and insisted on the removal of all unilateral tariffs imposed by the US, which disrupt global supply chains [8][10] - The establishment of a trade negotiation mechanism is expected to positively impact the global economy by stabilizing supply chains and reducing trade uncertainties [12][14] Group 2 - The visit of Brazilian President Lula to China marks his sixth visit, aiming to enhance bilateral relations and cooperation in multiple fields [31][35] - Lula's visit coincides with the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-Latin America Forum, indicating a significant step in strengthening China-Brazil ties [33][37] - The proposed construction of the "Two Oceans Railway" will connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, significantly improving trade efficiency and security for China and Brazil [39][41]

截至2025年6月6日收盘，东方创业（600278）报收于7.18元，较上周的7.22元下跌0.55%。本周，东方 创业6月3日盘中最高价报7.37元。6月3日盘中最低价报7.11元。东方创业当前最新总市值62.98亿元，在 贸易板块市值排名6/13，在两市A股市值排名2407/5148。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 【公司公告汇总】东方创业2025年度向银行申请总计人民币991167万元的免担保综合授信额度 【公司公告汇总】东方创业将于2025年6月27日召开2024年年度股东大会 1. 审议通过《公司及下属子公司2025年度向银行申请免担保综合授信额度的议案》，同意公司本部 及子公司2025年度向银行申请免担保综合授信额度总计人民币852900万元及美元19200万美元（合 计折合人民币991167万元），主要用于信用证开证、申请银行承兑汇票和流动资金借款等，授权 公司及子公司总经理在以上范围和额度内与银行签署相关授信（贷款）协议，期限自董事会审议 通过之日起12个月内有效。 2. 审议通过《公司及下属子公司 ...

Group 1 - Japanese and South Korean stock markets are showing a divergent trend, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.5% to 37,741.61 points and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index also increasing by 0.5% to 2,769.33 points, while the South Korean market is closed due to a holiday [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government has made a significant shift in its negotiation strategy with the U.S. regarding tariffs, abandoning the traditional demand for a complete elimination of the 25% auto tariff and proposing a tiered tariff adjustment mechanism based on each country's contribution to the U.S. auto industry [3] - The negotiation process has been stalled due to internal power struggles within the U.S. government, with key officials such as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Ross, and Trade Representative Lighthizer competing for influence over trade policy [3] - The Japanese negotiation team is facing a complex environment, as U.S. officials are exerting differentiated pressure on Japan to make unilateral concessions in areas like agricultural market access and digital trade rules [3][4] Group 3 - Market observers note that while Japan's proposed tiered tariff adjustment plan is constructive, its implementation remains highly uncertain due to the backdrop of U.S. domestic political struggles [4] - As the negotiation window narrows, Japan may need to seek a more precise balance between protecting its domestic industry interests and aligning with U.S. strategic demands [4]

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3385.36 c | 1.26 | 0.04% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10183.70 c | -19.80 | -0.19% | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1427.06 c | -7.57 | -0.53% | | 881001 | 万得全A | 5156.21 c | -2.34 | -0.05% | | 000688 | 科创20 | 991.64 c | -4.76 | -0.48% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2039.44 c | -9.18 | -0.45% | 盘面上看，贵金属、通信服务、贸易板块涨幅居前，美容护理、证券、乳业板块走低。 具体来看，贵金属板块表现强势，中润资源、湖南白银涨停，恒邦股份、山金国际、湖南黄金等股跟涨。 贸易板块走高，厦门信达2连板，中信金属、远大控股、江苏国泰等股跟涨。 证券板块跌幅居前，光大证券跌超4%，华鑫股份跌超2%，湘财股份、锦龙股份、红塔证券等股跟跌。 贵金属 ...

Group 1 - The A-share trade sector continues to strengthen, with Xiamen Xinda hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Yuanda Holdings, Yunwei Co., CITIC Metal, and Huihong Group also experienced gains [1]