Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Contracts Performance - On July 31, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the gains from the previous two trading days or since July 22. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures oscillated downward and hit the daily limit in the afternoon, erasing all gains since July 23. The closing price of J2509 was 1601 yuan/ton, down 4.93%, with a trading volume of 42,135 lots and a position volume of 28,705 lots, a decrease of 653 lots. The closing price of JM2509 was 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 7.97%, with a trading volume of 987,871 lots and a position volume of 284,647 lots, a decrease of 23,096 lots [5]. 1.2 Black - Series Futures Position - The position data of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on July 31 showed different changes in various contracts. For example, in the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions decreased by 174,240 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 122,370 lots, with a long - short difference of - 51,870 lots and a deviation of - 4.51% [6]. 2. Spot Market and Technical Analysis 2.1 Spot Market Prices - On July 31, the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal aggregate price in different regions had different performances, with the price in Lvliang increasing by 80 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Technical Indicators - On July 31, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal both declined. The daily MACD red bars of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD of the coke 2509 contract was nearly a death cross [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Coke Market - The coke production of independent coking plants has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early April. The coke production of steel mills has slightly increased from the low point since late February. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 10 consecutive weeks, and the third round of coke spot price increases was implemented on July 25 [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market - From January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have significantly declined, with decreases of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has been rising significantly for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February. The port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, coking plants have actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price has generally increased by 130 - 280 yuan/ton compared with late June [10]. 3.3 Overall Outlook - Checking coal mine production is beneficial for stabilizing coal supply and effectively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation in the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a contraction in domestic supply. After the recent significant rebound and subsequent decline in coke and coking coal futures prices, in the short term, their prices may follow steel futures. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand relationship in the coke market after the implementation of the third round of coke spot price increases and the increase or decrease in coking plants' coking coal inventory. If the demand weakens after the third round of coke price increases or the coking plants' coking coal inventory starts to decline significantly, the future market for coking products may not be optimistic. If the demand remains good or even increases after the third round of price increases, or the coking plants' coking coal inventory remains stable or continues to be replenished, there is still a possibility of a further increase in the future market for coking products [11]. 4. Industry News 4.1 Government Policies and Market Conditions - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 628.1 billion yuan, including 101 billion yuan of general bonds and 527.1 billion yuan of special bonds. The issuance of refinancing bonds was 547.2 billion yuan, including 267.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 279.8 billion yuan of special bonds. As of the end of June 2025, the national local government debt balance was 51.9503 trillion yuan [12]. - The deputy director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Xing, stated on July 31 that since this year, the coal market in China has been generally balanced with a slight oversupply. Since July, the daily scheduled coal production has remained above 12 million tons. Currently, the coal inventory of national unified - dispatch power plants exceeds 200 million tons, which can be used for 30 days. The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue to organize production, scientifically formulate production plans, and ensure coal supply [12][13]. - In the first half of 2025, the national power market operated smoothly, with the scale of market - traded electricity and the number of market players continuing to grow steadily. The total market - traded electricity of all power trading centers was 2.95 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of the end of June, the number of national power market business entities was 973,000, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% [13]. - In the first half of this year, China's energy infrastructure construction maintained a good momentum. The investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start this year exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6%. The investment growth rates in the eastern, central, and western regions all exceeded 20%, and private enterprise investment maintained rapid growth [13]. 4.2 Company Announcements - In the first half of 2025, China Energy Investment Corporation completed coal production and sales of 374 million tons, power generation of 580.6 billion kWh, railway freight volume of 276 million tons, and chemical product output of 13.55 million tons [13]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Jiantou Energy completed power generation of 11.615 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.67%, and completed on - grid electricity of 10.764 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The company expects its operating performance in the first half of 2025 to increase significantly year - on - year [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well has been approved to resume production [14]. - Wanneng Electric Power's coal procurement cost in the second quarter decreased more significantly year - on - year compared with the first quarter. The company's total installed capacity exceeds 17 million kilowatts, and it is currently not considering absorbing and merging its affiliated power plants, while its new energy projects are progressing as expected [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. produced 14.5297 million tons of raw coal, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The sales volume of commercial coal was 11.7369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.98% [14]. 4.3 International Market Forecast - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 3.3% and 3.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, more than twice the growth rate of total energy demand in the same period [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregate price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national average daily pig iron production, coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, independent coking plant's profit per ton of coke, production and operating rate of coal washing plants, raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, as well as the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [15][17][21][29][30][33]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress in China's energy sector in the first half of the year, showcasing a robust increase in renewable energy generation, improved energy security, and the acceleration of green energy consumption initiatives [1][2][3] Group 1: Energy Supply and Production - Renewable energy generation reached nearly 1.8 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for almost 40% of the total national power generation [1] - The production of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas increased by 5.4%, 1.3%, and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Daily average industrial power generation increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with the maximum national power load reaching a historical high of 1.508 billion kilowatts [1] Group 2: Power Generation Capacity - Over 200 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity was added in the first half of the year, including 30 million kilowatts from renewable sources [2] - Renewable energy generation accounted for nearly 40% of total power generation, surpassing the combined electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residents [2] - By the end of June, the total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 2.159 billion kilowatts, representing 59.2% of the total installed capacity [2] Group 3: Green Certificate Market - A total of 348 million green certificates were traded in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 118% [3] - The average price of green certificates rose to 5 yuan per certificate, with June's average reaching 6.5 yuan, a 4.4-fold increase from the lowest price this year [3] - The establishment of a unified national electricity market has progressed, with new mechanisms for cross-regional electricity trading and the launch of continuous settlement trials in the southern region [3]

Core Viewpoint - The reliability of electricity supply remains stable despite extreme weather events, with the National Energy Administration actively monitoring and managing the situation to ensure safety and reliability [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Supply Reliability - The National Energy Administration reported that the overall electricity supply in the country has remained stable in the first half of the year, with effective measures taken to mitigate the impact of extreme weather on the power system [1] - The average electricity reliability rate nationwide was 99.948%, with a reduction in average outage time and frequency for users [3] Group 2: Generation and Transmission Performance - In terms of generation, the equivalent availability factor for coal-fired units was 92.12%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the average utilization hours decreased by 166.29 hours to 1961.31 hours [2] - The equivalent availability factor for conventional hydropower units was 92.93%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points, with average utilization hours down by 7.84 hours to 1631.61 hours [2] - The transmission and transformation systems showed improvements, with the availability factor for 220 kV and above transformers at 99.6%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points, and the energy availability rate for DC transmission systems at 97.09%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that on July 31, several listed companies received target price upgrades from brokerages, with notable increases for Ningde Times, Su Shi Testing, and Yonghui Supermarket, showing target price increases of 66.28%, 48.13%, and 47.99% respectively [1][3] - Ningde Times received a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities with a target price of 440.00 yuan, indicating a significant potential upside [3] - Su Shi Testing was rated "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 24.22 yuan, reflecting a robust growth outlook [3] Group 2 - A total of 26 listed companies were recommended by brokerages on July 31, with Hisense Home Appliances receiving the most recommendations at four, followed by Su Shi Testing with three, and Yonghui Supermarket with two [4][5] - Hisense Home Appliances closed at 25.69 yuan and was recommended by four brokerages, indicating strong market interest in the white goods sector [5] - The article also mentions that Hunan Haili received its first coverage with a "Buy" rating from Great Wall Securities, indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural chemical products industry [7]

Core Insights - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of ensuring stable electricity supply during peak summer demand, highlighting the need for scientific scheduling and emergency preparedness [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Supply Management - The provincial government is focusing on the critical phase of electricity supply during the ongoing high-temperature weather, which has led to increased electricity demand [2] - There is a call for enhanced monitoring of the power grid and data analysis to better understand supply and demand dynamics [2] - The government aims to maximize electricity generation and ensure that all available power is supplied, while minimizing unplanned outages and operational disruptions [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Infrastructure - The government stresses the importance of comprehensive risk assessment and management across all aspects of electricity supply, including generation, transmission, and storage [2] - There is a focus on preparing emergency repair equipment and teams to respond to extreme weather events [2] - The need for a long-term strategy is highlighted, with plans to integrate renewable energy sources and improve electricity transmission infrastructure [2] Group 3: Demand-Side Management - The government advocates for demand-side management strategies, prioritizing demand response and orderly electricity usage to ensure efficiency [2] - Market-based approaches are encouraged to guide users in shifting their electricity consumption patterns [2] - There is an emphasis on promoting energy conservation to enhance the overall efficiency of electricity resource utilization [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the long-term narrative of a bull market, mid-term visibility of fundamental turning points, and a short-term strategy of "looking long while acting short" [2][11] - The "anti-involution" strategy is distinct from supply-side reforms, requiring a shift in focus for investment opportunities [2][10] - The report draws parallels with the supply-side reform period of 2016-2017 to project the potential outcomes of the "anti-involution" market [2][13] Group 2 - Guo'en Co., Ltd. plans to establish a 1,000-ton PEEK full industry chain platform and a 300,000-ton modified and composite materials project, aiming to create a rare integrated production line for PEEK [3][18] - The company is set to enhance its competitive edge by leveraging high-value transformation and expanding its market presence through an upcoming Hong Kong IPO [3][22] - The report forecasts a steady increase in the company's net profit from 706 million yuan in 2025 to 1.068 billion yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][22] Group 3 - Figma's listing on the US stock market marks a significant step in the commercialization of AI design, with its core product being a cloud-based collaborative interface design tool [2][17] - The company achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over 100 million USD, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [2][17] - Figma's AI capabilities are not limited to creative generation but extend to enhancing the entire design workflow, appealing to a broad customer base [2][17] Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, noting that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" portfolio has outperformed major indices since its inception [3][23] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to identifying new structural opportunities, particularly in technology and midstream manufacturing sectors [3][23] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with industrial trend catalysts and those benefiting from supply-demand improvements [3][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, achieving operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.984 billion yuan, up 14.22% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2][6]. - The company has approved a proposal to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the company's long-term growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.984 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.22% growth compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The performance was supported by favorable water inflow conditions, with the Wudongde reservoir's inflow increasing by 9.01% and the Three Gorges reservoir's inflow rising by 8.39% year-on-year [12]. Project Development - The board approved the investment in the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which aims to enhance navigation capacity and support the company's high-quality development [12]. - The project involves the construction of new locks and the expansion of navigation channels, with a total construction period of 91 months [12]. Dividend and Valuation - The company maintains a long-term commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70%, positioning itself as a strong dividend stock [12]. - The expected dividend yield compared to the ten-year government bond yield has reached the 98.60th percentile for 2023, indicating a favorable investment value [12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.38 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.24, 19.22, and 19.06 [12].

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the potential growth of bond ETFs, suggesting that despite the inherent advantages of actively managed bond funds, there is room for ETFs to leverage their product strengths. It highlights the significant improvement in liquidity for credit bonds through ETFs and suggests expanding the range of tracked indices [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in the management scale of domestic index bond funds, particularly credit bond index ETFs and equity-linked ETFs, as the equity market recovers [1][16]. Macro Commentary - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, signaling a hawkish stance as inflation targets remain distant compared to employment goals. This may delay rate cuts until Q4 2025, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively [2][17]. - The second quarter GDP growth in the U.S. was reported at +3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's -0.5% and exceeding market expectations. However, the core GDP indicator, PDFP, only grew by +1.2%, indicating that the growth was largely driven by inventory adjustments rather than strong internal economic growth [3][19]. Fixed Income Analysis - The report notes that the issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market activity [7]. - Green bond issuance reached 35.9 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 61 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in sustainable finance [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Su Shi Testing (300416) reported a 26% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, driven by strong growth in the integrated circuit sector. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 280 million, 350 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) slightly exceeded profit expectations, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 66.1 billion, 80.2 billion, and 96.6 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in the global battery market [11]. - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) plans to raise 4 billion yuan through a private placement to support store renovations, with adjusted profit forecasts reflecting a potential recovery in performance [13]. - Huaneng International (600011) reported a 24.3% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, benefiting from a 9.2% decrease in coal costs. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 13.78 billion, 16.02 billion, and 17.53 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [14].

近1.8万亿千瓦时，可再生能源发电量接近全国总发电量的四成；3.48亿个，绿证交易规模实现翻倍…… 7月31日，国家能源局举行新闻发布会，公布能源发展"半年成绩单"。"上半年，全国能源供应充足，供 需总体宽松，能源结构持续优化，新型能源体系建设加快推进，助力我国经济持续回升向好。"国家能 源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾说。 绿色低碳转型加速推进。继3月底全国风电、太阳能发电装机历史性超过火电后，5月底非化石能源发电 装机容量占比首次突破六成。上半年，风电、太阳能发电新增装机规模较去年同期翻一番。截至6月 底，全国可再生能源装机达到21.59亿千瓦，约占发电总装机的59.2%。其中，水电装机4.4亿千瓦，风 电装机5.73亿千瓦，太阳能发电装机11亿千瓦，生物质发电装机0.47亿千瓦。 随着绿色电力消费理念深入人心，绿证市场活力不断激发。上半年，全国共计交易绿证3.48亿个，同比 增长1.18倍。4月份以来，随着绿证市场建设提速，特别是国际可再生能源电力自愿消费倡议组织 （RE100）全面认可中国绿证，推动绿证需求快速增长，绿证价格稳步回升，上半年均价5元/个，6月 份均价达到6.5元/个，较今年最低价增长4.4倍 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Jianrunsheng Comprehensive Energy Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 20 million RMB, fully owned by Shenzhen Wanrun Comprehensive Energy Group Co., Ltd. [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of Guangdong Jianrunsheng Comprehensive Energy Co., Ltd. is Lu Qiang [1] - The company is classified under the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry [1] - The business address is located in Longhua District, Shenzhen [1] - The company type is a limited liability company (sole proprietorship) [1] - The business operation period is from July 31, 2025, to an indefinite period [1] Business Scope - The company’s business scope includes energy management contracts, energy-saving management services, energy storage technology services, solar power technology services, heat production and supply, sales of photovoltaic equipment and components, leasing of photovoltaic power generation equipment, wind power technology services, and research and development of emerging energy technologies [1] - Additional services include battery sales, electric vehicle charging infrastructure operation, sales of charging piles, centralized fast charging stations, and sales of new energy vehicle battery swap facilities [1] - The company also engages in online energy measurement and monitoring technology research and development, waste heat utilization technology research, and artificial intelligence industry application system integration services [1] - The licensed business project includes heating services, which require approval from relevant authorities before commencement [1]