供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased. The cost - side electricity price change needs further tracking, and the semi - coke price has temporarily stabilized. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5650 in the long - term and 5500 - 5900 in the short - term [4][8]. - For silicomanganese, the short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The bottom support of the futures price is strengthening as the increase of warehouse receipts stops and turns down. The supply - demand gap continues to narrow, and the manganese ore on the cost side is also gradually stabilizing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the rebound height depends on whether there are macro - level benefits. The main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 5900, and the short - term reference range is 5700 - 6000 [4][114]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract fell 1.54% (- 86) and closed at 5482 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and quotations from manufacturers and trading areas also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79% from the previous period. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 102,900 tons [8][31]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5681 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 231 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5460 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.4 Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a decrease of 2.00% from last week. The non - steel demand for magnesium metal was strong, but the downstream procurement was still cautious [8]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of May 8, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,700 tons, a decrease of 11.83% from the previous period [8]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract rose 0.7% (+ 40) and closed at 5758 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and trading areas showed different changes [114]. 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week. The daily output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1540 tons, and the weekly output was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week [114]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 229 yuan/ton; the production cost in Guangxi was 6348 yuan/ton [114]. 3.2.4 Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipment of South African manganese ore increased by 40.06% week - on - week, while the shipments of Australian and Gabonese manganese ore decreased. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different sources also changed [114]. 3.2.5 Manganese Ore Inventory - As of April 30, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 3671,000 tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons from the previous period [114]. 3.2.6 Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese from five major steel types was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate, and steel mill profitability all showed certain changes [114]. 3.2.7 Inventory - As of May 8, the national inventory was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous period, with different changes in different regions [114].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报5.6-5.9 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 原料端，锰矿市场成交冷清，现货价格持续偏弱运行。供应端，目前硅锰厂减停产计划仍存，盘面偏强震荡，硅锰现 货价格止跌企稳。需求端，下游钢厂多等待主流钢招进场，市场散单成交冷清，市场多持观望态度。 下周行情预测： 硅锰市场供需双弱，现货价格偏弱运行，预计下周锰硅价格偏弱为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024-02-01 2024 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia is 5350, with a weekly change of -150, and the factory price converted to the futures price is 5610 [1]. - The price trends of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented through various price charts, including market prices, futures contract closing prices, and basis prices [2][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese alloy, such as weekly production in China, procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and enterprise start - up rates from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6]. Demand - Demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, production of stainless - steel crude steel, and demand for silicon manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. - The procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group is also presented as an indicator of demand for silicon ferroalloy [4]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloy include the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese alloy, inventory data such as warehouse receipts, effective inventory, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related factors for silicon ferroalloy include electricity prices in different regions (Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia), market prices of raw materials like blue charcoal, and production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Profit data of silicon ferroalloy include spot profit in Ningxia, export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy, and profit converted to the main futures contract in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese alloy, profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and the profit converted to the main futures contract in Guangxi and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6][7].

钢材：供需趋于宽松，偏弱运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪消退，市场回归产业逻辑。螺 | | | | 纹表需大幅下降 77 万吨，超过季节性降幅，库存不降反增，供需趋于宽松。 | | 螺纹钢 | 偏弱运行 | 行情大幅增仓下行，市场悲观情况较浓。中期关注高铁水背景下需求季节 | | | | 性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险，短期关注下方 3000 支撑。【3000，3070】 | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | 热卷 | 偏弱运行 | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3130， | | | | 3200】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正套持有。【680，71 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪逐渐消退，市场回归产业逻辑。 目前供需层面矛盾不大，螺纹周表需升至 292 万吨，超过去年同期，库存 | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 去化良好。整体上螺纹钢行情下有支撑上有压力，短期维持震荡运行。中 | | | | 期关注高铁水背景下需求季节性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险。【3050， | | | 3130】 | | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供需双增，目前产量处于同期中间水平，但表观需求同 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 期偏高，导致库存去化速度较快，出口仍在高位，供需矛盾不大，总体维 | | | | 持震荡局面。宏观消息提振有限，短期维持区间震荡运行。【3170，3250】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正 ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5350 -100 -150 5610 主力合约 5430 32 -160 内蒙#72 5450 0 -100 5800 01合约 5508 -6 -172 青海#72 5550 0 0 5880 05合约 5426 34 -156 陕西#72 5350 -100 -100 5650 09合约 5452 8 -178 陕西#75 5900 -100 -100 主力月基差 180 -132 10 江苏#72 5650 -100 -100 1-5月差 82 -40 -16 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 硅铁合格块 品种 项目 铁合金早报 硅锰贸易商价 2025/5/8 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 ...

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan charcoal is between 610 and 670 CNY/ton[2] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5400-5500 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5950-6050 CNY/ton[2] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 19 to 17881 receipts, with a total forecast of 96480 tons, up by 2600 tons[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.42% at 158.08, with a net outflow of 61.987 billion CNY[2] - The black series showed mixed results, with SF2506 closing at 5430, up 0.04%, and a net outflow of 210 million CNY[2] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with a focus on buying on the rise rather than on the fall[4] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are fluctuating, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 32-33 CNY/ton, and South African high-grade at 30.5-31 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon current cash prices are between 5500-5600 CNY/ton, with a notable point price transaction at 5350 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1405 to 123166 receipts, indicating a clear trend of inventory reduction[7] Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[12] - The logistics industry’s prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The total manganese ore inventory in China decreased by 26.39 million tons, with significant reductions at various ports[13]