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CBOT大豆价格上涨,关注南美天气和美豆出口
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 07:27
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans rose this week, influenced by USDA's report of soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices. However, the continuous expansion of the year - on - year decline in cumulative US soybean export sales still dragged down the price trend. Meanwhile, the increase in RINs price and US soybean oil price is expected to benefit US soybean crushing. Attention should be paid to the changes in US soybean export demand, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas [6]. - The price of CBOT soybean meal declined slightly this week. The postponement of the EU's "Zero - Deforestation Act" and higher - than - expected US soybean meal export sales limited the decline. The high - level US soybean crushing maintained sufficient supply of soybean meal, which may still suppress the price [11]. - The price of DCE soybean meal rose, supported by the increase in Brazilian soybean import costs due to the rise in Brazilian soybean premium quotes. However, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills restricted the price increase. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, domestic soybean procurement, and inventory changes [14]. - The price of CBOT soybean oil increased, driven by the rise in international competing vegetable oil prices and the increase in the use of US soybean oil in biodiesel production in September. Continuous attention should be paid to the changes in US biodiesel policy [18]. - The price of DCE soybean oil rose, affected by the increase in soybean import costs and domestic competing vegetable oil prices. However, the high - level inventory of soybean oil in oil mills suppressed the price to some extent. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans, soybean crushing, and inventory changes [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of November 28, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1137.25 cents per bushel, up 0.95% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices, but the decline in export sales dragged down the price [6]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $318.6 per short ton, down 0.38% from the previous week. The price declined slightly, and the postponement of the EU's act and high - export sales limited the decline [11]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3044 yuan per ton, up 1.06% from the previous week. The price rose due to the increase in import costs, but inventory accumulation restricted the increase [14]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 52.08 cents per pound, up 2.90% from the previous week. The price increase was driven by international competing vegetable oil prices and biodiesel usage [18]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 28, the DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8244 yuan per ton, up 0.66% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by import costs and competing vegetable oil prices, but high inventory suppressed the price [22]. II.产区 Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), rainfall and temperature in southern Brazil were lower than normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall in the central - western region is expected to increase, while rainfall in the south will still be lower than normal, and the temperature will be at a normal level [24][26]. 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), there was almost no rain in Argentine soybean - producing areas, and the temperature was normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall is expected to be scarce, with only slightly higher rainfall in some northern areas, and the temperature will be higher than normal [30][32]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but met expectations, and the year - on - year decline in cumulative volume continued to expand. As of November 20, 2025, the export inspection volume was 799,042 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans in the current crop year was 10,937,372 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.50%. The year - on - year decline in the cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 25/26 season also expanded [37][38][39]. - **D4 RINs Price**: The RINs price rose this week. As of November 26, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 106 cents, up 5.5 cents from November 21 [44]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **Soybean Yield Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean yield, ranging from 1.67683455 billion tons to 1.7876 billion tons [47]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78.0% (CONAB data), and as of November 20, it was 81% (AgRural data). The sowing progress in different states also varied [47]. - **Export Sales**: Anec lowered the forecast of Brazilian soybean exports in November to 4.4 million tons. As of the third week of November 2025, the cumulative export of Brazilian soybeans was 104.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.11% [52]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [55]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Brazilian soybean crushing profit rose this week. As of November 28, it was $52.07 per ton [57]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of November 27, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress reached 39% (SAGyP data), and as of November 26, it was 36.0% (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange data) [59][60]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of Argentine farmers' 24/25 season soybeans increased month - on - month. As of the week of November 19, 2025, they had sold a certain amount of soybeans in different seasons [62][63]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: The Argentine soybean crushing profit slightly recovered this week. As of November 28, it was - $2.99 per ton [69]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **China's Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: McDonald Pelz released the weekly procurement progress of China's imported soybeans on November 25, 2025 [72]. - **Port and Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501,000 tons. The oil mill soybean inventory in the 47th week was 7.1499 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 327,200 tons [74]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased, while the crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills decreased. In the 47th week, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was about 2.0475 million tons, and in the 48th week, the actual crushing volume was 2.2038 million tons [77]. - **Soybean Oil Transaction**: The weekly transaction volume of soybean oil decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the total transaction volume was 75,400 tons [80]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean oil in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. In the 48th week, the soybean oil production was 407,700 tons, and in the 47th week, the apparent consumption was 400,500 tons [82]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The commercial inventory of soybean oil in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons [85]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: The production of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.741 million tons, and as of November 21, the apparent consumption was 1.6856 million tons [88]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed Mill Physical Inventory Days**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1.1515 million tons. The physical inventory days of feed mills increased. As of November 28, it was 8.17 days [90]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Pick - up**: The weekly transaction volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the transaction volume was 644,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 940,212 tons [93]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses of downstream hog - raising and piglet - purchasing for fattening continued to deepen. The hog ex - factory price and hog - grain ratio decreased [95]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of November 28, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 0 hands [97]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean oil in different regions and time periods [100][101][103]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean meal in different regions and time periods [106][107]. - **Variety Spread**: The report shows the spread data between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the ratio data between soybean oil/soybean meal and corn/soybean meal [109][110][111]. 2. FOB Quotes - The report shows the FOB quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal [113][114][116]. 3. CFTC Positioning - The report shows the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal managed funds [119][120][121].
河南方城:小红薯“链”动大产业
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-11-28 12:48
Core Insights - The article highlights the successful integration of the sweet potato industry in Erlangmiao Town, Henan Province, focusing on the development of a robust agricultural economy through innovative practices and community engagement [1][2][3] Group 1: Agricultural Development - Erlangmiao Town has established a strong foundation for the sweet potato industry with a planting area reaching over 1,000 acres, supported by scientific planning and policy incentives [1] - The local government collaborates with leading enterprises and research institutions to develop high-yield and specialized sweet potato varieties, enhancing the competitive edge of the industry [1] Group 2: Value Chain Extension - The town has transformed traditional processing techniques into deep processing, establishing a complete processing system from raw materials to finished products through the creation of the "Yushufang" brand [2] - The sales network includes online e-commerce, offline supermarkets, and agricultural markets, with projected sales of 300 tons of products to major companies and a revenue exceeding 10 million yuan from various sweet potato products [2] Group 3: Economic Integration and Tourism - The "company + farmer" model has been implemented, with the leading enterprise providing quality seed potatoes and technical guidance, benefiting over 1,000 local farmers [3] - The town is developing a sweet potato-themed ecological tourism park, integrating production, processing, technology, and tourism to enhance the local economy and promote rural revitalization [3]
聚焦北大荒丨延军农场:校企合作奏响产业振兴新曲
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 11:16
延军木耳入驻学院(北大荒集团延军农场供图) 在众多合作共识中,延军木耳成功入驻学院,成为双方党建共建成果最直观、最生动的实践与彰显。延军木耳将主要供应学院食堂,用于丰富师生日常餐饮 菜品,为师生膳食营养均衡提供助力。同时,学院还将设立延军特色农产品展柜,方便师生随时选购。"此次进入黑龙江农垦职业学院,是延军木耳探索校 园市场的重要一步,下一步,我们将持续以延军木耳为纽带,让更多师生吃到安全、健康、地道的延军特产,也让延军的优质农产通过校园这个窗口,被更 多人熟知与喜爱。"农场产业营销中心主任王明新表示。 从座谈会上的共识凝聚到木耳入驻的落地实践,此次校企携手以党建为引领,成功搭建起延军木耳直供校园的便捷桥梁。这一创新合作模式,不仅为学院师 生带来了味觉体验与营养摄入的双重提升,更构建起"农场产好货、学院助推广"的良性互动生态,打通了企校协同推广特色农产品的新路径。下一步,双方 将以此次合作为新的起点,持续深化在党建共建、人才培养、产业发展等更多领域合作,让产业振兴的道路更加宽广,共同书写校企合作、互利共赢精彩篇 章。(来源:北大荒集团延军农场) 座谈交流现场(北大荒集团延军农场供图) 立足前期党建共建打下的坚 ...
扎根、奉献、远行,一颗“全能豆”的新征程
Zhong Guo Shi Pin Wang· 2025-11-27 13:38
Core Insights - The oil safflower bean industry in Xinjiang has experienced significant growth, transforming from a struggling agricultural sector to a thriving market with strong consumer demand in the Greater Bay Area [3][20] - The "Xinjiang products southbound, Guangdong products northbound" initiative has facilitated direct sales channels for oil safflower beans, enhancing employment and promoting cultural exchange among various ethnic groups [3][20] Industry Development - The introduction of oil safflower beans, a drought-resistant and salt-tolerant crop, has led to a remarkable increase in agricultural productivity in the region, with yields rising from 200 kg per mu to 530 kg, and the planting area expanding from 20,000 mu to 50,000 mu [6][8] - The ecological benefits of oil safflower bean cultivation include a reduction in strong wind days from 27 to 9 annually and an increase in soil organic matter content to 1.4 g/kg [8] Economic Impact - The establishment of a modern agricultural industrial park for oil safflower beans has attracted investments of 40 million yuan, generating an estimated annual output value of 150 million yuan and creating over 200 new jobs [11] - The number of market entities in the region has surged from 4 to 411, with total production value increasing from 10.93 million yuan to 289 million yuan, representing a growth of over 26 times [17] Market Expansion - Oil safflower bean products have gained popularity in the Greater Bay Area, with significant sales growth, including over 10 million yuan in annual sales for products developed by Xinjiang Sanli Technology Group [12][18] - The brand-building efforts have resulted in the registration of 13 trademarks and participation in various national exhibitions, enhancing the market influence of oil safflower bean products [14][15] Cultural Exchange - The collaboration between Xinjiang and Guangdong has fostered deeper cultural ties, with consumers expressing interest in the unique agricultural practices of Xinjiang after tasting oil safflower bean products [22] - The initiative has not only improved economic conditions but also strengthened the sense of community among different ethnic groups through shared agricultural and cultural experiences [20][22]
【媒体看莱西·人民网】全国首支胡萝卜价格指数在青岛莱西发布
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 09:12
Core Insights - The first carrot price index in China was launched in Laixi, Qingdao, filling a gap in the national carrot industry price index and establishing a unified industry standard [3][4] - The index aims to provide a market "navigation tool" for carrot industry participants, facilitating production guidance and operational expectations [3][4] - The index is based on data from several large storage enterprises, allowing for real-time monitoring of market supply and demand, and providing accurate market indicators for growers, buyers, and processing companies [3][4] Industry Overview - Laixi City focuses on rural industrial revitalization, with the local carrot industry being a significant contributor, covering an area of 50,000 acres and processing 500,000 tons annually [4] - The region is a major production and sales area for carrots in China, with an export volume of 360,000 tons, accounting for 30% of the national total, and products are well-received in Southeast Asia and Japan [4] - Laixi has over 230 storage and processing enterprises, forming a complete industry chain from planting to processing, cold storage, logistics, and sales, which supports the establishment of the price index [4] Future Developments - Laixi City plans to optimize the index operation mechanism, enhance data monitoring and analysis, and promote the application of the index to increase its influence and support rural revitalization through information technology [7]
诺普信:今年蓝莓出口覆盖东南亚地区主要城市,通过经销商逐步拓展中亚、俄罗斯等
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-25 01:17
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,有投资者在投资者互动平台提问:在俄罗斯旅游的时候看到贵司的爱莓庄产品在售卖 了,请问贵司的蓝莓出口已经拓展到俄罗斯了吗? 诺普信(002215.SZ)11月25日在投资者互动平台表示,今年蓝莓出口覆盖东南亚地区主要城市,通过 经销商逐步拓展至中亚、俄罗斯等地区。 ...
乌干达首批输华干辣椒启运
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-21 22:12
Core Points - The Ugandan government celebrated the shipment of the first 11 tons of dried chili peppers to China, marking a significant step in agricultural exports [1] - Ugandan President Museveni expressed gratitude towards China's ongoing cooperation with African nations and emphasized the importance of mutual respect and benefit in trade relations [1] - The initiative aims to encourage local farmers to cultivate cash crops like chili peppers to alleviate poverty [1] Group 1 - The shipment consists of dried chili peppers sourced from China and produced in Uganda, which will be shipped via sea to Shanghai [1] - The event highlights the strengthening trade ties between Uganda and China, with expectations for further cooperation [1] - President Museveni's remarks underline the potential for economic development through agricultural exports [1]
葫芦“种”出富民大产业 山东聊城探索平原地区乡村振兴路
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-21 02:55
Core Insights - The gourd industry in Luozhuang Village, Shandong, is transforming local economies and driving rural revitalization through innovative cultivation and marketing strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - Luozhuang Village has evolved from a traditional planting village to the largest gourd distribution center in China, with a focus on "regional development and group growth" [2]. - The annual output value of the gourd industry in Tangyi Town has reached 1.8 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the Chinese market share [2]. - The local government has implemented a "company + base" planting model and an "internet + e-commerce" sales model to enhance industry growth [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Collaboration with research institutions has led to the development of 32 new gourd varieties, improving disease resistance and increasing yields to over 60,000 yuan per acre [2][4]. - The introduction of advanced crafting techniques has resulted in over a thousand creative products, significantly increasing the added value of gourds [4]. Group 3: Community and Economic Impact - The gourd industry has fostered a cooperative model among 20 surrounding villages, promoting collective development and economic prosperity [2]. - The establishment of the "China Gourd E-commerce Association" has enabled over 2,000 e-commerce operators to expand market reach beyond local boundaries [4]. Group 4: Broader Rural Revitalization Efforts - The success of the gourd industry in Luozhuang is part of a larger initiative in Liaocheng, which has established 92 unique rural revitalization areas, benefiting over 1,500 natural villages [5].
余杭携手苍溪共启消费协作
Hang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-11-21 02:27
Group 1 - The "China Broadcasting Valley · Guang Supply Hangzhou Consumption Week" event and the East-West Cooperation New Farmers Co-Creation Conference were launched in Yuhang, attracting nearly a hundred participants including government representatives and business leaders from Hangzhou and Guangyuan [1][2] - The event featured a three-day exhibition showcasing ecological agricultural products from Cangxi, such as kiwi juice and konjac powder, highlighting the market potential in Hangzhou and Zhejiang [1][2] - A special live broadcast event was initiated, allowing new farmers to share brand stories and promote products nationwide through the "China Broadcasting Valley" online platform [1] Group 2 - The "East-West Cooperation · Gathering Strength for Revitalization" New Farmers Co-Creation Plan was officially launched, with five enterprises from Yuhang and Cangxi successfully paired [2] - The plan focuses on the e-commerce live broadcast industry, utilizing a "production-education integration" model to enhance professional resources across various agricultural sectors, including technology development and smart agriculture management [2] - Since the initiation of East-West cooperation in 2021, Yuhang and Cangxi have developed deeper collaboration, with the China Broadcasting Valley project attracting 34 digital enterprises and generating a total sales revenue of 460 million yuan from over 160 processed products [2]
“媒体+”粤桂协作:兴产业铸品牌开启肇贺协作新篇章
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-11-20 02:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "Media+ Zhaoqing-Huizhou Specialty Products" promotional event aimed at enhancing collaboration between the Guangdong and Guangxi regions, showcasing local agricultural products, and expanding market reach into the Greater Bay Area [8][10][12]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Media+ Zhaoqing-Huizhou Specialty Products" event will take place on November 21 in Guangzhou, inviting residents of the Greater Bay Area to participate [8][9]. - The event will feature a variety of local specialties from Zhaoqing and Huizhou, including agricultural product exhibitions, cultural showcases, and immersive experiences [10][11]. Group 2: Agricultural Collaboration - Zhaoqing and Huizhou are focusing on enhancing their agricultural collaboration, particularly in promoting specialty products like Zhaoping tea, Fuchuan navel oranges, and fragrant taro [18][19]. - The collaboration aims to deepen regional cooperation and attract businesses to the area, with a focus on improving processing capabilities for local agricultural products [21][25]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The Zhaoping tea industry has seen significant growth, with its annual comprehensive output value increasing from 3.5 billion to 6.8 billion yuan, nearly doubling in recent years [41]. - The brand value of Zhaoping tea has surpassed 4.238 billion yuan, reflecting the success of the regional collaboration [43]. Group 4: Marketing and Promotion - The "Media+" initiative is designed to integrate data-driven marketing with content creation, enhancing the visibility and branding of local products like the "Fujian Orange" [50][55]. - The event will include interactive experiences and social media engagement to promote local specialties, creating a marketing loop that connects online promotion with offline experiences [63][66]. Group 5: Product Highlights - Fuchuan navel oranges have gained recognition with the "Zhenpin" label, enhancing their marketability and sales channels, particularly in major retail chains in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau region [33][36]. - The event will also showcase unique rice varieties from Fuchuan, aiming to establish direct connections with supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, and restaurants to broaden market access [71][73].