- Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model selects the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on four types of factors (technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations) from the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks and constructs an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI) as the benchmark. The specific construction process involves selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on the four types of factors and constructing an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month[3][37][39]; Model Evaluation: The model has shown excellent performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Technical Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Technical factors are constructed based on the price and volume data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various technical indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to evaluate the stock's price trend and momentum[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Technical factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Capital Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Capital factors are constructed based on the capital flow data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating the net capital inflow and outflow of stocks to evaluate the stock's capital flow trend[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Capital factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Fundamental Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Fundamental factors are constructed based on the financial data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various financial ratios such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and total market value to evaluate the stock's financial health and valuation[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Fundamental factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Analyst Expectation Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Analyst expectation factors are constructed based on the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves collecting and analyzing the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks to evaluate the stock's future performance expectations[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Analyst expectation factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] Model Backtest Results - Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio, Annualized Excess Return: 13.3%, Excess Return Volatility Ratio: 1.0[4][40][41] Factor Backtest Results - Southbound Capital, Average Return: 25.7%[32][36] - Foreign Capital, Average Return: 13.5%[32][36] - Domestic Capital, Average Return: 14.0%[32][36] - Hong Kong Capital and Others, Average Return: 10.2%[32][36]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 02 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250702 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.09%，收报 3454.78 点；深证成指跌 0.61%，收报 10412.63 点；科创 50 跌 1.22%，收报 982.64 点；创业板指跌 1.13%，收报 2123.72 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3282 只个股下跌，1943 只个股上涨，192 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 13770 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 890.48 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨跌参半，钢铁、煤炭、建筑材料、农林 牧渔、银行、有色金属等行业领涨，电子、通信、国防军工、计算机、美容 护理、医药生物等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为水产、光伏屋顶、深海科技、BC 电 池、硅能源、光热发电、HJT 电池、水泥制造精选、光伏、央企煤炭、煤炭 开采精选、钙钛矿电池、 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% on July 2, with 15 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by steel and coal industries, which increased by 3.37% and 1.99% respectively [1] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 0.84% [1] - The electronic and communication sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 2.01% and 1.96% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 35.89 billion yuan, with 9 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The power equipment sector had the highest net inflow, amounting to 3.29 billion yuan, while the steel sector saw a net inflow of 955 million yuan [1] - The electronic sector faced the largest net outflow, totaling 12.08 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 6.01 billion yuan [1] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - This sector saw a net inflow of 923 million yuan, with 71 out of 103 stocks rising, including 7 hitting the daily limit [2] - The top stocks by net inflow included Guolian Aquatic Products with 230 million yuan, followed by Baolingbao and Muyuan Foods with 113 million yuan and 106 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had 8 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, led by Xianfeng Holdings, which saw a net outflow of 49.16 million yuan [2][3] Top Gainers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - Guolian Aquatic Products: +20.11%, 3.31% turnover, 230.32 million yuan inflow [2] - Baolingbao: +10.00%, 7.94% turnover, 112.74 million yuan inflow [2] - Muyuan Foods: +1.38%, 0.86% turnover, 105.66 million yuan inflow [2] Top Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - Xianfeng Holdings: -6.50%, 8.87% turnover, -49.16 million yuan outflow [3] - Biological Shares: 0.00%, 2.47% turnover, -17.44 million yuan outflow [3] - Hainan Rubber: +1.46%, 0.84% turnover, -15.63 million yuan outflow [3]

Group 1 - A technology company in Hunan has received a timely loan of 1 million yuan to support its digital seedling cultivation, which can meet the demand for seedlings on 10,000 acres [1] - The People's Bank of China in Hengyang has established a financial support policy framework for the development of the private economy, leading to a loan balance for private enterprises in Hengyang exceeding 100 billion yuan by April 2025 [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive small and micro loans in Hengyang has decreased to 3.73%, a year-on-year decline of 63 basis points [1] Group 2 - A key electrical technology company in Hengyang has secured a low-interest loan of 150 million yuan for a high-end intelligent manufacturing industrial park project [2] - The People's Bank of China in Hengyang has issued a notice to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, resulting in 3.745 billion yuan in credit for 33 technology renovation projects [2][4] - By April 2025, 10.51 billion yuan has been disbursed for 29 equipment update and technology renovation projects in Hengyang [2] Group 3 - The Hengshan Rural Commercial Bank has issued 260 million yuan in loans to 356 small and micro enterprises in Hengshan, with an interest rate discount of nearly 1 percentage point [3] - The Nanyue Rural Commercial Bank has provided 72.61 million yuan in loans to 120 local homestay operators, offering a 0.5 percentage point internal funding transfer pricing discount [3] Group 4 - A materials technology company in Hunan received a loan of 260 million yuan from the Construction Bank in Hengyang to alleviate its funding pressure due to slow receivables and high raw material costs [5] - The People's Bank of China in Hengyang has launched the "Hengzhi Loan" financial service, allowing companies to obtain loans based on the evaluation of intangible assets, with a maximum loan amount of 300 million yuan [5] Group 5 - A knowledge value credit "white list" has been established for technology-based private enterprises, with 2,860 companies included and 1.732 billion yuan in knowledge value credit loans issued [6] Group 6 - The People's Bank of China in Hengyang is promoting the application of credit information sharing platforms to enhance financial support for small and micro enterprises [7] - Local banks have developed innovative online loan products, with the Changsha Bank Hengyang branch issuing 120 million yuan in loans to 62 small and micro enterprises [7] Group 7 - The Agricultural Bank of China in Hengyang has provided 1.8 million yuan in loans to a watch company facing financial difficulties due to new factory construction and equipment purchases [8] - The bank has established a special service team to support enterprises in the Hengyang West Duhigh-tech Zone, resulting in 114 million yuan in loans to 18 private enterprises [9] Group 8 - The People's Bank of China in Hengyang is focusing on building a long-term mechanism to ensure that private enterprises can access loans efficiently, with over 500 private market entities receiving 350 million yuan in loans from the Nanyue Rural Commercial Bank [10]

图为农民驾驶农机在浙江省玉环市漩门湾三期智慧农业示范基地内进行"海水稻"插秧作业。段俊利摄 （人民视觉） 中国"三农"即将迎来新一次全面摸底——国务院日前印发通知，决定于2026年开展第四次全国农业普 查。 为何选择在这一时点开展普查？具体查什么？与以往相比，这次普查有哪些新变化？ 时隔10年再次启动 农业普查是一项重大的国情国力调查，与经济普查、人口普查共同组成了中国的三大周期性普查项目。 1996年，中国开展了第一次全国农业普查。此后，分别于2006年、2016年实施了第二次、第三次全国农 业普查。国家统计局国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖介绍，根据《中华人民共和国统计法》和《全国农 业普查条例》规定，农业普查每十年举行一次，尾数逢6的年份为普查年度。2026年，我国将开展第四 次全国农业普查。 农业普查是一个国际性的统计调查项目。数据显示，联合国粮食和农业组织（FAO）自1950年起，每10 年制定一个世界农业普查指导性方案，目前全世界有110多个国家和地区参照该方案进行了农业普查， 提交了农业普查成果。 第四次全国农业普查即将展开，主要查什么？有什么变化和创新？ 近日，山东省青岛市西海岸新区的马铃薯喜获丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock repurchase and increase loan tool, established in October 2024, has shown positive effects in stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence, with over 630 listed companies receiving support totaling more than 130 billion yuan by June 30, 2024 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy and Implementation - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory bodies, announced the establishment of the stock repurchase and increase loan tool, with an initial quota of 300 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.75% for one year, extendable based on circumstances [2]. - By June 30, 2024, 632 companies or major shareholders had received repurchase and increase loans, amounting to 134.26 billion yuan, with 412 companies receiving 84.98 billion yuan in the first half of the year [2]. Market Impact - The repurchase and increase loans reflect confidence in the company's future and recognition of its value, providing low-cost financing channels for listed companies and major shareholders, thus enhancing market liquidity and stability [2][3]. - The tool has created a stabilizing mechanism, allowing major shareholders to utilize low-cost funds for stock repurchases when market valuations are low, effectively curbing negative market cycles [3]. Company Types and Participation - Among the companies receiving loans, 406 are private enterprises, accounting for 64.24%, while state-owned enterprises make up 28.48% with 180 companies [4][5]. - The highest loan amounts were granted to companies like Dongfang Shenghong, which received a total of 3.8 billion yuan, and other notable companies include Muyuan Foods and Rongsheng Petrochemical, with loan amounts of 2.5 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The stock repurchase and increase loan tool is expected to continue expanding, enhancing the market's ability to withstand external risks and promoting long-term corporate governance and development [9][10]. - The policy is seen as a transformative shift in market value management, initiating a cycle of low-cost financing, value management, and valuation recovery, which is anticipated to stabilize the capital market [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]

Group 1: Deep Sea Technology and Situational Awareness - The report highlights the increasing focus on "Deep Sea Technology" due to the upcoming military parade on September 3, which will showcase new combat forces including unmanned systems and underwater equipment [2][8] - The core of "Deep Sea Technology" revolves around resource security, national defense construction, and blue economy, with situational awareness being a key component [2][9] - The challenges in situational awareness construction lie in underwater signal processing, which is deemed critical for effective underwater operations [9][10] Group 2: Huaren Microelectronics (华润微) - Huaren Microelectronics operates a fully integrated supply chain model, focusing on power semiconductors and smart sensors, with a recovery expected in the power semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has a significant market share in IGBT products, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, with plans to expand into new customer segments [11][12] - The report projects a steady increase in net profit for Huaren Microelectronics from 9.59 billion to 16.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio decline [13] Group 3: Zhongyuan Expressway (中原高速) - Zhongyuan Expressway focuses on the construction and operation of toll roads, with a projected revenue of 6.969 billion CNY in 2024, where toll income constitutes approximately 63.98% [15][16] - The company has a young asset structure with an average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, indicating potential for value reassessment [16][18] - The report anticipates net profits to grow from 10.02 billion to 11.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a favorable PE ratio [18] Group 4: Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) - Dekang Agriculture is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a platform and technology-driven enterprise, aiming to create a "value symbiosis" ecosystem [5][22] - The company has demonstrated significant profitability advantages, with a projected average income of 770,000 CNY per modern pig farm in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 48% [29][30] - The report forecasts Dekang's net profit to reach 36 billion CNY by 2027, with a PE ratio of 7.69, reflecting its strong growth potential in the agricultural sector [30]

近期，海洋经济政策利好频出，发展势头强劲。 6月26日，广东省召开全省海洋经济工作会议。作为全国海洋经济发展的"领头雁"，广东海洋生产总值已连续30年位居全国首位。2024年，广东海洋生产总 值突破2万亿元大关，约占全国海洋生产总值的1/5。在"十四五"规划收官之年，广东正以新质生产力重塑海洋经济版图——传统产业升级焕新，新兴产业集 群成势，更前瞻布局深海矿产、可燃冰开发、海水制氢等未来产业。 6月25日，《上海市海洋产业发展规划（2025—2035）（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。根据总体布局，上海将进一步筑牢两大海洋产业发展核。打造长兴 岛海洋产业发展核和临港新片区海洋产业发展核。到2030年，船舶与海工装备产业增加值超450亿元，大型LNG运输船本土化率提升到85%以上，基本建成 原创技术策源和绿色智能引领的世界级船舶与海洋工程装备产业体系。 从"向海而生"到"向海图强" 海洋经济是拓展全球经济发展空间的必然选择。 根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）发布的《2030年的海洋经济》报告，当前全球海洋经济产值已突破2.5万亿美元大关，预计至2030年，这一数字将攀升至 3万亿美元，届时海洋经济规模将可媲美全球 ...

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...