Group 1 - The Chinese innovative drug industry has entered a critical stage of high-quality development, focusing on quality and core value rather than rapid scale expansion, moving from "barbaric growth" to "rational maturity" [2] - By 2026, the industry will emphasize core strengths and practical results, with a focus on producing valuable innovative outcomes and achieving efficient transformation [2] - Currently, the internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs is still in its early stages, with more early-stage pipelines engaging in license-out collaborations with multinational corporations (MNCs), reflecting global recognition of China's R&D capabilities [2] Group 2 - Innovative drug companies must adhere to their original intentions, focusing on unmet clinical needs rather than merely catering to business development transactions, with a goal to achieve FIC/BIC innovations to build core competitiveness [3] - Companies venturing abroad need to solidify their global capabilities by establishing a comprehensive self-operated system across R&D, production, commercialization, and regulatory compliance [3] - The new medical insurance directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory are expected to enhance the accessibility of high-priced drugs and stabilize market expectations for companies [3] Group 3 - There is an opportunity for deep integration of digitalization and innovative drugs, with AI becoming a crucial tool for overcoming innovation bottlenecks and improving efficiency while reducing costs across various stages [4] - By 2026, the innovative drug industry will face both opportunities and challenges, with increasing industry concentration and a landscape where leading companies and niche leaders emerge [4] - The company aims to participate in the construction of the industry ecosystem by focusing on patient-centered approaches, aligning with innovation trends, ensuring compliance, and expanding collaboratively [4]

Company Overview - Recent positive developments in research for Ascentage Pharma, including the clinical approval of the next-generation BTK degrader APG-3288 by the National Medical Products Administration of China, have not significantly boosted the stock price, which has seen a decline of 0.38% in Hong Kong and 0.62% in the US from February 5 to February 12, 2026 [2] - The company's core product, Nairik, reported a 93% year-on-year increase in sales revenue to 217 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while the net loss widened to 591 million yuan due to reduced intellectual property licensing income and increased R&D investment [4] Industry Context - The innovative drug sector is under pressure, with a valuation correction for unprofitable biotech companies as the market shows impatience for long-term commercialization and focuses more on short-term profitability [3] - On February 12, 2026, there was a net outflow of 4.926 million HKD from major funds and 11.534 million HKD from retail investors in the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a risk-averse sentiment among short-term investors [3] Stock Performance - The stock price of Ascentage Pharma reached a low of 44.92 HKD on February 3, 2026, followed by a slight rebound; however, technical indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, with the MACD showing a bearish trend and KDJ in the oversold zone [5] - The stock's decline reflects market caution regarding the long-term valuation logic of innovative drug companies, as the recent R&D progress and improvements in fundamentals have not fully offset the pressures from sector adjustments and funding [5]

Company Overview - Shodex Bio (GPCR.OQ) has entered into a non-exclusive patent licensing agreement with Roche and Genentech, receiving a $100 million upfront payment and future royalties from oral GLP-1 drug sales [1] - The company's Q3 2025 financial report shows zero revenue and a net loss of $65.8 million, indicating ongoing R&D investments are pressuring short-term profitability [4] Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Shodex Bio's stock price fell by 3.24% to $73.52, with a cumulative decline of 12.82% over the last 20 trading days [2] - The stock price peaked at $94.90 in January 2026 due to acquisition rumors but has since experienced a pullback, with a recent volatility of 22.57% and a low of $72.10 [5] Industry Context - Since January 2026, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen accelerated thematic rotation, with profit-taking pressures emerging in the innovative drug field [3] - Concerns about intensified competition in the GLP-1 market, particularly regarding potential impacts from generic drugs, have led to increased caution among investors [3] Market Environment - On the same day, the Nasdaq index fell by 1.84%, reflecting a general increase in market risk aversion [6] - Shodex Bio's trading volume was approximately $24.58 million, indicating that low liquidity conditions may amplify stock price volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core focus for investment in the upcoming year includes three main areas: domestic AI ecosystem, innovative pharmaceuticals, and commercial aerospace [1][2] - The domestic AI industry is expected to replicate the growth trajectory seen overseas, with significant advancements in large model technology and semiconductor manufacturing [1] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to strengthen progressively, with downstream sectors centered around large models and cloud computing, and upstream sectors including AI chips, storage, semiconductor manufacturing, equipment, and materials [1] Group 2 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has shown explosive growth over the past 2-3 years, despite a recent pullback due to valuation pressures; companies with international capabilities are seen as good investment opportunities [2] - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to accelerate commercialization over the next 5-10 years, driven by breakthroughs in rocket recovery and low-orbit satellite technologies, making it a sector worth close attention [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue the trends of 2025 into 2026, which may be a "reconstruction year" [2][3] Investment Focus Areas - The company is optimistic about three main sectors: 1. Technology sector, focusing on internet, electronic semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] 2. Upstream resource commodities, such as oil and coal, which may present good investment opportunities [2][5] 3. Outbound enterprises, with many globally competitive companies in the Hong Kong stock market worth attention [2][6] Market Trends and Variables - In the first half of 2026, the market is likely to favor strong performers, with domestic demand undergoing structural adjustments and the U.S. continuing its monetary easing [3][4] - Two key variables to monitor in the second half of 2026 include: 1. Stability of housing prices in first-tier cities, which could lead to valuation recovery in undervalued sectors like consumption, building materials, and real estate [4] 2. Potential inflation rebound and interest rate hikes following the U.S. midterm elections, which could impact global assets [4] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to benefit from global capital and talent influx, with a focus on AI, semiconductors, and energy supply chains [5][6] - The "sell shovels" strategy is recommended, focusing on essential components for AI, such as domestic semiconductors and energy infrastructure [5] Upstream Resource Outlook - The company has maintained a positive outlook on upstream resource commodities for several years, anticipating opportunities in oil and coal if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and global industrialization continues [5][6] Outbound Enterprises Potential - Outbound enterprises are seen as a concentrated investment opportunity, with many capable of thriving beyond single market cycles and expected to grow in the future [6][7]

Core Insights - The medical sector is experiencing both "explosive growth" and "cooling" simultaneously, with over 100 medical companies queued for IPOs in Hong Kong, and tightening IPO policies expected [1][3] - The performance of new drug IPOs in 2026 is anticipated to be significantly differentiated, with many companies initiating Pre-IPO financing to hedge against regulatory tightening and market risks [4][5] Group 1: IPO Trends and Market Dynamics - The number of companies waiting for IPOs in Hong Kong has exceeded 400, indicating a crowded market, and the performance of these IPOs is likely to vary widely [4] - Investors are expected to favor companies with successful overseas BD (business development) cases and clear product timelines, while those lacking competitive advantages may face significant IPO pressure [4] - The market sentiment is cautious, with many companies considering Crossover financing to mitigate risks associated with the tightening IPO window [5] Group 2: BD Transactions and Investment Opportunities - The enthusiasm for BD transactions from multinational corporations (MNCs) towards Chinese new drug assets remains high, with China accounting for 50% of global BD transaction volume last year [9][8] - The valuation of Chinese new drugs is expected to stabilize, but there are concerns about rising prices that could harm the reputation of Chinese biotech in the global market [9][8] - The focus of BD transactions is shifting from oncology to other therapeutic areas such as autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases, indicating a diversification of investment interests [12] Group 3: AI in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - AI-driven pharmaceutical companies are gaining traction, with significant funding and BD opportunities expected in 2026, emphasizing the importance of data in drug development [15][16] - The AI revolution is anticipated to first impact consumer medical devices, with AI enhancing product effectiveness and consumer willingness to invest in advanced home healthcare devices [17][18] - The competitive landscape for AI in healthcare is evolving, with a focus on developing tools that can integrate various data types to assist clinical decision-making [19][20] Group 4: Medical Device Market Outlook - The investment landscape for innovative medical devices is currently low but is expected to gradually improve, with structural investment opportunities emerging [26][28] - The challenges of international expansion for Chinese medical devices are significant, but improvements in product quality and performance are paving the way for better market acceptance [31][32] - The future of medical device exports is shifting towards local production and direct sales networks, enhancing profitability and market penetration [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The dual-driven logic of "manufacturing advantages + technological innovation" remains solid, and current adjustments provide opportunities for long-term investment [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2025 - The market in 2025 is divided into three phases: - The first phase from post-Spring Festival to April focuses on technology revaluation, driven by the international recognition of the DS model, with strong performances from Hong Kong internet giants and A-share tech companies [5]. - The second phase from May to September highlights accelerated AI capital expenditure and overseas expansion trends, with record-breaking collaborations in innovative drugs and enhanced competitiveness in the energy storage sector driving related stocks up [5]. - The third phase in the fourth quarter shifts towards expectations of PPI recovery due to "anti-involution" policies, benefiting cyclical sectors like chemicals [5]. - The non-ferrous metals industry is a consistent highlight throughout the year, with precious metals performing strongly in a weak dollar environment, leading to increases in industrial metals like copper and silver [5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - Four key industrial tracks are identified for investment based on the "14th Five-Year Plan": - The AI industry remains central, with a focus on computing power investment as domestic internet companies are expected to significantly increase capital expenditure, benefiting the domestic computing power supply chain [6]. - The overseas expansion of the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and electric vehicles, continues to be promising due to declining lithium battery costs and global energy transition demands [6]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering an acceleration phase, supported by policy and industry resonance, with significant satellite reserves laid out for industry development [6]. - The internationalization of innovative drugs is progressing, with Chinese companies moving from licensing to direct overseas expansion, showcasing competitive R&D efficiency in large molecule drugs [6]. Group 3: Strategies for Market Volatility - Recent market volatility is attributed to rapid price increases raising demand concerns and emotional disturbances from uncertain events. A strategy of "not chasing high prices, focusing on valuation, and looking long-term" is recommended [7]. - For high-priced assets, careful evaluation of the potential for exceeding performance expectations is necessary, while solid companies with growth potential present opportunities during short-term adjustments [7]. - In managing product portfolios, dynamic adjustments are made through in-depth industry research, tracking changes in competitive landscapes, and timely adjustments to overvalued assets while focusing on undervalued companies with significant growth potential [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy for the Year of the Horse - The overall market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with the capital market remaining in a favorable environment. Continuous technological advancements and enhanced competitiveness in high-end manufacturing are expected to support corporate profitability and market stability [8]. - The market is anticipated to trend upward with fluctuations, necessitating a focus on rhythm and structural opportunities. Identifying certainty amid volatility through in-depth research and patient holding is expected to yield good returns [8].

新春序幕将启，当此岁序交替之际，投资者该如何穿越市场短期波动、把握长期投资价值？华商健康生 活灵活配置混合基金经理孙蔚表示，中国医药创新产业的全球地位显著提升，有望推动全产业链实现全 面复苏；有色金属行业在多重利好共振下，高景气度有望延续；AI行业则进入算力与应用协同爆发、 业绩兑现的关键阶段。她将重点跟踪上述领域，把握产业链变迁脉络，为投资者捕捉时代机遇。 孙蔚 华商健康生活灵活配置混合基金经理 华商盛世成长混合基金经理 展望后市，孙蔚认为，2025年医药行业拐点预判已全面验证。创新药作为本轮反弹的核心主线，全年业 绩表现突出；尽管四季度有所回调，但产业上行趋势尚未结束。展望2026年，板块有望延续升势，并带 动创新药产业链协同跟进，推动全产业链步入复苏通道。 有色金属方面，2025年四季度，有色金属板块呈现逆势上涨态势，确立其市场核心盈利主线地位。本轮 强势表现由供需格局改善、政策托底与新需求增长协同驱动。向后看，行业高景气度有望延续。投资策 略上，可聚焦铜价上行趋势明确的头部企业，并积极把握新能源与AI数据中心等场景牵引的铝、稀 土、锂等稀有金属板块结构性机遇。 回顾市场，孙蔚在近期披露的定期报告中表示 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug concept stocks have declined, with companies such as 3SBio, Kelun-Botai Biopharmaceuticals falling over 3%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, China Biologic Products, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical dropping over 2% [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Current analysis indicates that the healthcare sector presents multiple investment opportunities, with the CXO industry experiencing sustained improvement due to a recovery in overseas orders and domestic capacity reduction, while still having room for valuation recovery [2] - The medical device sector is benefiting from domestic equipment upgrade policies and overseas market expansion, with continuous catalysts in cutting-edge areas such as brain-computer interfaces and AI imaging [2] - Internet healthcare is seeing improved operational efficiency in the context of deepening medical insurance payment reforms, leading to a clearer profit growth trajectory [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the medical services and consumer-related sectors have experienced long-term adjustments, resulting in valuations at historical lows. By 2026, improvements in supply structure, increased treatment volumes, and store optimization are expected to lead to a dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations, with AI empowerment providing new momentum for leading companies [1][2]. Group 1: Medical Services and Consumer Sectors - The medical services and consumer-related sectors are currently undervalued and poised for performance recovery, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [2]. - In medical services, improvements in supply structure and consumer environment are anticipated to gradually revive business, with stable customer spending and increased treatment volumes. Leading companies are expected to provide positive earnings guidance for 2026, indicating a potential dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations. AI-related business developments are also expected to drive new growth for leading medical service firms. Key companies to watch include Aier Eye Hospital (300015), Gushengtang, Tongce Medical (600763), and Haijia Medical [2]. - The pharmacy sector has shown significant marginal improvement in performance since Q3 2025, with leading companies improving same-store performance quarterly. Regulatory support from nine ministries emphasizes the long-term development direction of industry concentration and chain rate enhancement, with non-pharmaceutical adjustments and store structure optimization driving short-term performance improvements. Key companies include Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) and Dazhenglin (603233) [2]. Group 2: Home Medical Devices - The growth of home medical device companies is driven by increased product penetration and domestic production rates. Rapid growth is observed in products like Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGM) and sleep apnea machines, with leading domestic brands expanding internationally. Traditional categories like blood pressure monitors are increasingly focusing on the high-end market, with domestic brands steadily increasing market share. The combination of high domestic growth and new overseas markets is expected to contribute to sustained performance growth for home medical device companies. Key companies include Yuyue Medical (002223), Kefu Medical (301087), Sanofi Biological (300298), and Ruimaite (301367) [3]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - The collaboration for the international expansion of innovative drugs continues to deepen, with recent significant agreements between Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca, as well as Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly. These collaborations highlight the growing recognition of China's innovative drug development capabilities by multinational pharmaceutical companies, showcasing the efficiency and cost advantages of Chinese innovative drugs [4]. Group 4: Investment Portfolio for 2026 - The investment portfolio for 2026 includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical (300760), United Imaging Healthcare, WuXi AppTec (603259), New Industry (300832), Meihua Medical (301363), Adebiotech (300685), Zhend Medical (603301), Yaokang Biological, Kingmed Diagnostics (603882), Aier Eye Hospital, Yuyue Medical, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Dazhenglin; H-shares include Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Botai Biologics-B, Hutchison China MediTech, Kangnuo-B, Sanofi Biopharma, Gushengtang, and Aikang Medical [5].