证券日报网讯 1月22日，锌业股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司生产、销售情况正常，目前 公司产品铜、锌、金、银的库存也处于合理范围内。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, driven by various factors including increased demand for gold ETFs and the failure of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, yen, and Swiss franc to attract investment during times of uncertainty [4][8][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, gold prices have continued their strong performance from 2025, with prices rising from $4,300 per ounce to a peak of $4,650 per ounce, marking a historical high [6]. - The price of gold saw a dramatic increase of 90% within a year, from under $3,000 per ounce to over $4,400 per ounce by late October [6][7]. - Gold's long-term performance has been exceptional, with a cumulative increase of over 600% from 2000 to 2025, significantly outperforming major stock indices and bonds [10]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The core logic supporting the current rise in gold prices includes sustained purchases by central banks, steady demand from private investors, and the strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [12][13]. - In 2025, major economies entered a rate-cutting cycle, historically correlating with rising gold prices due to increased liquidity, reduced opportunity costs for holding gold, and a weakening dollar [15]. - The unusual rise in U.S. Treasury yields during the current rate-cutting cycle has raised concerns about the dollar's credibility, further driving investors towards gold [18]. Group 3: Changes in Market Participation - Gold ETFs have emerged as a significant source of new capital driving gold prices higher, with retail investors increasingly participating through these vehicles due to lower barriers to entry and higher liquidity compared to physical gold [20][22]. - The shift towards gold ETFs has altered the perception of gold, enhancing its financial attributes while diminishing its traditional role as a store of value [22][24]. - The influx of retail investment through gold ETFs has amplified market activity and contributed to the rapid price increases observed in 2025 [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Metal Market Trends - The overall metal market in 2025 has shown strength, with both precious and base metals experiencing significant price increases, driven by concerns over global resource supply chains [26][28]. - The protective trade policies of the Trump administration have heightened global anxieties regarding resource security, prompting countries to stockpile strategic metals like silver, copper, and aluminum [28][29]. - Silver and other precious metals have outperformed gold in 2025, reflecting their dual role as both safe-haven assets and essential industrial materials [29].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪稍有回升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：下方有支撑 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注缅甸复产 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：反弹沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：高位震荡 | 12 | | 钯：金银回调，上方承压 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 2026年01月22日 商 品 研 究 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 22 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Greenland crisis has seen a reversal, with President Trump announcing a framework agreement with NATO regarding Greenland's future, which has led to a slight increase in oil prices and a pullback in gold prices after reaching a historical high [1][10]. Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight increase, with WTI crude rising by less than 1% to below $61 per barrel, influenced by Trump's announcement about Greenland and a rise in stock markets and the dollar [2][11]. - Concerns over potential military action against Iran have added geopolitical risk premiums to oil prices, with Trump pressuring aides for decisive military options regarding Iran [2][11]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth by 2026, slightly reducing the expected supply surplus, which has provided some support to the market [2][11]. Precious Metals - The easing of the Greenland crisis has cooled the record rally in gold prices, with silver prices also declining [6][15]. - Gold prices retreated after reaching a historical high of $4,888.42 per ounce, with current prices at $4,790.13 per ounce, reflecting a 0.6% increase [7][16]. - Silver prices fell by 3.3%, while platinum briefly surpassed $2,530 per ounce before reversing to a 0.9% decline [7][16]. Base Metals - Copper prices in London rose, supported by Goldman Sachs' prediction that the trend of copper flowing into the U.S. market will continue, which is a significant driver for copper price increases [8][17]. - As of the close in London, LME copper increased by 0.4% to $12,810 per ton, while other base metals showed mixed performance [9][19].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Precious Metals**: Prices are experiencing fluctuations but are trending upwards. [1] - **Copper**: Short-term sentiment is volatile, but long-term fundamentals remain intact. [6] - **Aluminum**: Prices are maintaining high levels amidst mixed macroeconomic signals. [9] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to supply and demand changes. [11] - **Lithium**: Inventory is decreasing, and export tax policies may lead to front-loaded demand. [13] - **Rare Earths**: Prices are recovering due to policy impacts and pre-holiday inventory demand. [16] Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold**: The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026. [2][4] - **Silver**: A decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly. [5] - **Copper Demand**: Despite short-term pressure on copper prices due to macroeconomic adjustments and Nvidia's data center demand corrections, tight supply conditions and ongoing demand from AI and power grid construction are expected to support prices. The State Grid's projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan. [7][8] - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: New domestic electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, while alumina prices are declining, leading to inventory pressures. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to weaken demand, with aluminum ingot inventories increasing significantly. [9][10] - **Tin Market Dynamics**: Recent high prices have led to increased production in Myanmar and higher production quotas in Indonesia, but demand is being suppressed by these high prices. [12] - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The reduction in lithium inventory and the anticipated decrease in export tax for battery products may lead to stronger demand in the off-season. [14][15] - **Rare Earths Investment Value**: The strategic importance of rare earths continues to be highlighted, with a positive outlook on their investment value. [18] Additional Important Information - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic adjustments and expectations surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair. [2][4] - **Aluminum Processing Rates**: The processing rate for aluminum products has slightly increased, indicating some resilience in the industry despite high prices. [9]

1月21日，随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师 Joni Teves日前在接受采访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零售 投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美联 储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带动 及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价格 中枢有望抬升。 (中证报) 来源：滚动播报 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices have risen as traders assess disruptions in oil supply from the Black Sea region and market volatility triggered by the Greenland crisis [2][3] - The WTI February contract increased by 1.5%, settling above $60 per barrel, while the more active March contract saw a similar rise [5][12] - Kazakhstan's largest oil producer has halted production at the Tengiz and Korolev fields due to a generator fire, with Tengiz expected to remain offline for 7 to 10 days [3][11] Geopolitical Factors - Concerns over the CPC loading facility in Russia, affected by drone attacks, have led to reduced oil output from Kazakhstan [4][11] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and U.S. President Trump's comments have escalated, impacting market sentiment and leading to a sell-off in U.S. equity and bond markets [4][11] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached new highs due to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Europe regarding Greenland, with gold surpassing $4,766 per ounce and silver nearing $96 per ounce [6][13] - As of 3:05 PM EST, spot gold was up 1.9% at $4,757.92 per ounce, while silver saw a slight decline of 0.1% [7][14] Base Metals - Most base metals on the London market experienced declines amid global risk aversion [8][15] - LME copper fell by 1.6% to $12,753.5 per ton, while LME aluminum and nickel also saw similar declines [9][10][15]

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为45 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns driving the strategic status of metals [1] - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping of supply and demand dynamics, with strong and sustained demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] - Supply constraints are becoming more rigid due to long-term investment shortages, declining resource grades, and extended project production cycles [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.5 million tons, reaching 44.25 million tons, with industry profitability exceeding 6,000 RMB per ton [2] - High aluminum prices are suppressing demand, leading to an increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory by 39,000 tons [2] Group 3: Alumina Market - The alumina market continues to experience inventory accumulation, with weekly operating capacity at 96.25 million tons, an increase of 40 tons [3] - Inventory levels are at historical highs, with a weekly increase of 75,000 tons, and profit margins are negative, with losses expanding to -186 RMB per ton based on domestic ore prices [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and production cuts at mines, with the copper concentrate processing fee declining to -46.53 USD per ton [4] - The operating rate of major copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, while global copper inventory rose to 1.0874 million tons, an increase of 77,800 tons week-on-week [4] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market shows weak consumption with visible inventory accumulation, as the galvanizing operating rate recorded 53.48%, a decrease of 0.91% [5] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory remains stable at 118,400 tons, while LME inventory is at 106,500 tons, showing minimal change [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Fluctuations in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: LME spot prices strengthen, and the price remains firm [2]. - Zinc: Range - bound trading [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Range - bound trading [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias; Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Box - shaped oscillation; Palladium: Following the range - bound trading [2]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia disrupt sentiment, and nickel prices fluctuate widely; Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions at the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2]. Summary by Related Categories Gold and Silver 1. Price and Trading Volume - Gold prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52% and a night - session closing price of 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver prices also declined during the day and rose at night. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1, while the holdings of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 180. Gold and silver inventories showed different trends, with Comex gold inventories decreasing by 80,956 ounces and Shanghai silver inventories increasing by 9703 kilograms [4]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Gold and silver spreads and exchange rates changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged, and the US dollar index rose by 0.28% [4]. Copper 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 101680 with a 0.49% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased, while the open interest of the London copper 3M electronic trading decreased slightly [8]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 7,762 tons, and London copper inventories increased by 3,850 tons. The LME copper premium widened, and the spot - to - futures spread and other spreads also changed [8]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic report shows that high - tech manufacturing leads, and GDP growth reaches the target. Trump's remarks on Greenland and related tariff threats, as well as Chile's Codelco's plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine [8][10]. Zinc 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24450 with a daily decline of 1.21%, and the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic trading was 3207.5 with a 3.20% decline. Trading volume decreased significantly, and open interest showed different trends [11]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc increased, the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased, and zinc inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc inventories increasing by 224 tons and London zinc inventories decreasing by 1475 tons [11]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic achievements and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's tariff threats on European countries [12]. Lead 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17185 with a daily decline of 1.66%, and the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic trading was 2037.5 with a 2.81% decline. Trading volume and open interest decreased [15]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and overseas lead inventories decreased by 2850 tons, which supported prices [15]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic data and Trump's remarks on Greenland and tariff threats [16]. Tin 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 389,500 with a daily decline of 3.88% and a night - session closing price of 397,040 with a 2.58% increase. The trading volume and open interest decreased [19]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 141 tons, and London tin inventories increased by 505 tons. The LME tin premium increased, and the spot - to - futures spread also changed [19]. 3. News - Germany restarts electric vehicle purchase subsidies, the EU holds an emergency summit to address Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate takes measures to maintain economic and financial security [19][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 1. Price and Trading Volume - Aluminum prices oscillated with a bullish bias. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24090, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Alumina prices continued to bottom - out, and the trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased significantly. The price of cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [23]. 2. Inventory and Premium - Aluminum inventories showed different trends, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventories increasing by 1.50 tons. The premium and spread of aluminum and alumina also changed [23]. 3. News - High - level political events such as the Japanese House of Representatives election and the release of the Fed's meeting minutes [25]. Platinum and Palladium 1. Price and Trading Volume - Platinum and palladium prices showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 615.10 with a 0.83% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased [28]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs decreased. NYMEX platinum inventories increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventories decreased by 3,888 ounces [28]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Platinum and palladium spreads and exchange rates changed. The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel 1. Price and Trading Volume - Nickel prices fluctuated widely. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 142,320. Stainless steel prices also changed, with the closing price of the stainless steel main contract being 14,305. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends [32]. 2. Industry Chain Data - The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and other products in the nickel industry chain changed, and the prices of stainless steel products also showed different trends [32]. 3. News - Indonesia's policies on nickel, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula, and adjusting production targets [32][33][35].