证券研究报告 2025年05月13日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 24&25Q1总结：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升 作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 分析师 曾先毅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524060002 分析师 胡十尹 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525010002 联系人 吴亚宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） • 24-25Q1有色金属板块整体情况：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升。指数表现方面，24年全年有色板块涨幅为3.2%，低于沪深300指数，板块Q1大幅上 涨，之后主要由于宏观预期扰动大幅回落。25Q1有色板块涨幅为12%，位列申万一级行业之首，主要系有色板块主要品种价格表现强势，一方面特朗普关税政策 推升通胀预期，金价中枢持续抬升，另一方面3月是有色金属需求旺季，铜铝持续去库价格强势，高价格中枢下相关企业业绩释放预期增强。 • 贵金属：金价上涨带动企业盈利同比大增。 2024年黄金行业实现营业总收入2915.88亿元，同比+2.83%。 25Q1实现营收838 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：数据好于预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：上行动力不足 | 6 | | 氧化铝：低位整理 | 6 | | 锌：震荡运行 | 8 | | 铅：短期承压 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 10 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面弱势状态延续 | 14 | | 多晶硅：基本面仍处弱势格局 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：供需过剩延续，偏弱格局或难改 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 7 日 黄金：数据好于预期 白银：震荡回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new materials sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory due to increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry and the integration of technologies like artificial intelligence, despite a recent decline in the new materials index's valuation [1][4]. Summary by Category Market Performance - As of April 29, 2025, the new materials index decreased by 4.22%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.89%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [2]. - The new materials index ranked 23rd among 30 major industry sectors in terms of performance [2]. Price Trends - Basic metal prices saw a general decline in April 2025, with notable decreases in copper (-3.52%), aluminum (-2.90%), lead (-2.96%), zinc (-4.51%), tin (-9.02%), and nickel (-4.74%) [2]. - Rare gas prices experienced slight declines in April 2025, with helium priced at 655 RMB per bottle (-0.27%), xenon at 27,000 RMB per cubic meter (-3.99%), neon at 120 RMB per cubic meter (-4.00%), and krypton at 275 RMB per cubic meter (-8.92%) [3]. Export Data - In March 2025, exports of superhard materials and products increased by 32.22% year-on-year, totaling 14,000 tons, while export revenue decreased by 9.35% to 14.4 million USD [3]. - The average export price for superhard materials fell by 31.44% to 10.35 USD per kilogram [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the new materials index as of April 29, 2025, was 22.94, reflecting an 11.57% decrease from the previous month and positioning it at the 53.90 percentile of historical valuations since 2022, indicating a reasonable valuation for the sector [1][4]. Future Outlook - The new materials sector is anticipated to enter a prosperous cycle driven by domestic demand recovery and the push for domestic alternatives, maintaining an investment rating of "stronger than the market" [1][4].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4603.44, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also experienced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2489 tons, aluminum down 8027 tons, zinc down 4552 tons, lead down 4721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 邮箱：Wangwm@zhqh.com.cn 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.30 摘要 【宏观总结】大类资产，市场消化特朗普的反复无常，黄金冲高回落，基本金属等走高， 国内过剩产能品种弱势运行。海外经济，海外数据分化，美国消费回落，主要国家货币政 策整体保持流动性宽松，后续美国通胀风险较大。关税谈判方面，部分国家有所妥协。中 国经济，4月制造业PMI明显回落，工业企业利润数据好转，其他基建和制造业数据有所回 升，企业负债率、应收账款等数据不尽如人意。地产高频数据复苏缓慢，央行释放流动性 呵护。中央政治局会议政策有定力，为未来贸易全面脱钩留下余地。 宏观金银宏观月报： 对等关税扰动全球，海内外经济隐忧多，金价大幅波动 【关注】贸易脱钩扩大，国内复苏不及预期，美元流动性危机（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 资产价格逻辑分化 2 海外关税谈判反复，货币预期宽松 3 国内PMI数据回落，政策有定力 4 部分避险情绪退却，金价大幅调整 目录 资本市场 01 【金银逻辑】尽管短期可能出现技术性回调，但黄金长期上涨的核心逻辑（美元信用弱 化、央行持续购金、地缘风险及通胀预期）依然稳固。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Risk preference is rising [2] - Silver: Stabilizing and rebounding [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Significantly declining [2] - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, short - term sideways movement [2] - Lead: Weak demand, facing upward pressure [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces are converging, nickel prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, with cost and negative feedback on the disk in a game [2] - Tin: Slightly recovering [2] - Industrial silicon: The disk is weakly oscillating [2] - Polysilicon: Registered warehouse receipts are slightly increasing [2] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously increasing, and the disk is under pressure [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 785.14 with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a decrease of 0.29%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 8215 with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 8226.00 with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased by 86,169 ounces, while the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 161,950 ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 77740 with an increase of 0.18%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,842 tons, and the inventory of LME copper decreased by 300 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and some spot spreads changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India may be among the first to sign a trade agreement with the US. US economic data is poor. China's March 2025 scrap copper imports decreased. Peru's Antamina mine stopped work due to an accident. The output of Chile's Codelco increased slightly in Q1. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19930, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2766. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum and alumina contracts changed. The processing fees of aluminum rods in some regions changed slightly [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. 3.4 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22550 with a daily increase of 0.13%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 1775 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [15]. - **News**: US economic data is poor, the US dollar index rebounded [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. 3.5 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16895 with a decrease of 0.65%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 3750 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [18]. - **News**: The US trade agreement hope boosted the US stock market [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [19]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 124,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,720. The trading volume, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed. The production capacity of an Indonesian nickel - iron project is recovering, and Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates of nickel products [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 261,560 with a daily increase of 0.38%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 116 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 180 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2506 was 8,540, and the closing price of PS2506 was 37,320. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts changed. The prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain changed [29]. - **News**: Longi Green Energy's 12GW high - efficiency BC battery project in Xi'an is progressing [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts of lithium carbonate decreased. Warehouse receipts increased. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts decreased. Some spreads and premiums changed [33]. - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Some listed battery companies announced their Q1 results [33][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]

| 黄金：风险偏好回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：寻底继续 | 6 | | 锌：区间整理 | 8 | | 铅：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势震荡 | 14 | | 多晶硅：消息面发酵，盘面亦偏弱 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：成本支撑趋弱，关注高基差下采买需求 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 黄金：风险偏好回升 白银：企稳反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z ...