原油价格周一上涨，因为美军抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗带来了新的地缘政治暗流，同时华盛 顿似乎准备继续打压这个南美国家的石油出口。伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13，000美元，随着向美 国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情绪被进一步点燃。金银价格上涨。 "市场对这件事判断得很准确，"Rapidan Energy Group总裁Bob McNally在接受采访时表示。"对短期原 油期货来说，这件事关系不大；对美国石油企业而言则是利好。" 尽管委内瑞拉及其石油行业的未来仍非常不明朗，但特朗普称，美国将暂时管理这个国家，并需要对委 内瑞拉的石油供应获得"完全的准入"。哥伦比亚广播公司周一报道称，美国计划拦截原名Bella 1的 Marinera号油轮，该油轮被指涉嫌装载委内瑞拉石油。与此同时，马杜罗被押解至纽约，周一对"毒品 恐怖主义"指控表示不认罪。 基本金属：全线上涨 伦铜首破13000美元 伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13000美元，随着向美国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情 绪被进一步点燃。 周一LME期铜一度大涨4.7%，近期连续攀升的行情推动铜价自11月中旬以来累计上涨约20%。 原油 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to expected market volatility and political events that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to anticipated supply tightness in 2026 [5] - Aluminum is also recommended for buying on dips, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand [5] - Cobalt prices have shown a solid upward trend, with strong support expected due to supply constraints [6] - Lithium prices have surged, and it is advised to buy on dips as demand remains stable [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8408.59, with a weekly high of 8408.59 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 3.00%, Aluminum up 1.37%, Zinc up 1.28%, Lead up 0.30%, while Tin decreased by 4.75% [19] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 3.85%, Silver down 1.25%, Palladium down 8.79%, and Platinum down 26.92% [19] - New energy metals saw significant increases: Nickel up 7.15%, Cobalt up 12.41%, and Lithium up 16.75% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 38,474 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,067 tons in aluminum, and various changes in other metals [30][32]

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 华西证券指出，地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格。本周美军对委内瑞拉的打击引发避险情 绪，短期金价波动有限，但需警惕局势升级风险。长期来看，全球"去美元化"趋势加速，央行和投资者 持续购金，黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向。美国债务总额突破38.5万亿美元，财政赤字高企， 降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。白银方面，ETF资金强劲流 入，全球现货库存紧张，甚至出现交割困难，尽管需求回落，但供应端缺口突出，预计未来几年供需缺 口将持续扩大。宽松周期下工业复苏需求使得白银弹性高于黄金，看好未来白银价格。基本金属方面， 铜作为能源转型关键金属，供给端全球主要矿山事故频发，预计2025Q4供给减少20万吨产量，宏观环 境支撑铜价。铝价方面，铜铝比失调，国内电解铝供给刚性，AI领域爆发式增长占据电力优先级，供 应端扰动待落地，看好铝价补涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of the U.S. military action against Venezuela on global markets, particularly driving safe-haven investments into gold and reinforcing a bullish trend in precious metals [1] - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the recent military action has led to strong international condemnation, increasing tensions in the global geopolitical landscape [1] - In the base metals sector, the beginning of the new year has seen supply issues, particularly with copper due to worker strikes, exacerbating existing supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the supply side for electrolytic aluminum is facing potential production cuts, which has allowed London aluminum prices to break above key price levels [1] - Indonesian nickel miners have proposed reducing nickel ore quotas, and Vale's Indonesian operations have paused mining due to delays in production plans approved for 2026, supporting a rebound in nickel prices [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses a reported drone attack by Ukraine on Russian President Putin's residence, which Russia claims involved 91 drones, while Ukraine's President Zelensky denies the allegations, calling them fabricated [2][5]. - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that all incoming drones were destroyed and there were no casualties or damage reported, emphasizing that Russia will respond to Ukraine's actions [3]. - Lavrov indicated that Russia will reassess its negotiation stance with the U.S. regarding the Ukraine issue due to Ukraine's alleged actions [4]. Group 2 - The article highlights a significant drop in global precious metal futures prices, with COMEX gold futures down 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [8]. - Other precious metals also experienced substantial declines, with spot silver prices falling nearly 9%, palladium down over 15%, and platinum down over 14% [8]. - The article notes that the A-share market in China has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a "nine consecutive days of gains," raising questions about whether this is a temporary rebound or an early indication of a spring market rally [13][14]. Group 3 - Analysts attribute the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index to clear industrial policy catalysts, particularly support for commercial rocket companies to meet the Sci-Tech Board listing standards, which has boosted the commercial aerospace sector [14]. - There is a noted improvement in market fundamentals, with increased investor risk appetite and trading sentiment, supported by liquidity and expectations of long-term capital inflows [14]. - The article mentions that while the index is rising, the number of declining stocks exceeds that of advancing stocks, indicating a concentrated flow of funds into specific sectors, particularly those with strong industrial logic [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market adjustments [1][2] - On December 29, gold prices initially dropped below $4500 per ounce due to profit-taking and easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but later rebounded to around $4510 per ounce [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced a major margin adjustment on December 26, increasing the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures, aimed at tightening market liquidity and encouraging rational trading [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in precious metal prices are supported by four main factors: rising geopolitical uncertainties enhancing safe-haven demand, a weakening dollar reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, accelerated demand for metals due to AI and energy transition, and ongoing supply constraints in copper, silver, and platinum [2] - The demand structure for metals is changing, influenced by significant investments in the photovoltaic energy sector, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: Strong overseas spot prices support price increases [2]. - Zinc: Showing a moderately strong oscillation [2]. - Lead: Weak demand restricts price increases [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Following the upward trend of copper [2]. - Alumina: Under the policy orientation of "internal competition" [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Bullish sentiment remains strong [2]. - Palladium: Oscillating upwards [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: Fundamental factors limit its flexibility, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,016.30, with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session closing price was 1018.10, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The trading volume of ETF SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 to 1,071.13 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2026, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4 for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and March 5 for the National People's Congress. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The central bank emphasized preventing the "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine were "close to reaching an agreement" [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,720, with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the night - session closing price was 101380, with a night - session increase of 2.69%. The LME 3M electronic copper board had a closing price of 12,133, with an increase of 0.65% [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 increased by 3.05% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation procedure for the labor - capital contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23170, with an increase of 0.46%. The LME 3M electronic zinc board had a closing price of 3086.5, with a decrease of 0.32%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract's trading volume increased by 20495 to 145708, and the position increased by 4103 to 97425 [10]. - **News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, but the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year from January to November. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17555, with an increase of 1.39%. The LME 3M electronic lead board had a closing price of 1999.5, with an increase of 0.83%. The Shanghai Lead main contract's trading volume increased by 3669 to 58769, and the position decreased by 770 to 55558 [13]. - **News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 338,550, with an increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closing price was 346,280, with an increase of 2.46%. The LME 3M electronic tin board had a closing price of 42,490, with a decrease of 0.81%. The Shanghai Tin main contract's trading volume increased by 70,845 to 369,071, and the position decreased by 968 to 52,276 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including the time of the Two Sessions, fiscal policy, industrial enterprise profits, exchange - rate prevention, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22405, with an increase of 130 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2793, with an increase of 147 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21390, with an increase of 45 compared to T - 1 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump plans to take over the US power grid regulatory power for AI data centers. NVIDIA is leading the data center to a 800V DC architecture [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 1 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 705.30, with an increase of 2.67%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 515.65, with a decrease of 2.53%. The trading volume and position of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum, as well as Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium, all had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's ETF scale reached 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 27. The National Fiscal Work Conference was held from December 27 to 28. Cambodia and Thailand reached a consensus on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border General Committee meeting [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium trend intensities are both 1 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 126,750, with an increase of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,955, with a decrease of 35 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and position of both also had corresponding changes [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, adjusted RKAB regulations, and there were tariff threats from the US, suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia, production impacts in Indonesian nickel - wet projects, and Fed's dovish remarks, as well as export license management for some steel products in China [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [30].