我先和一个在大型房企担任高管的朋友聊了这个话题。他现在负责的是公司的战略规划，整天就是在分析房产市场的趋势。他的看法是这样的，房产市场已 经从投资为主的时代进入到了消费为主的时代。这个转变对买房的时机选择有很大的影响。 最近看到一些关于房产投资的讨论，有个话题反复出现。就是，2026年如果不买房，5年以后是不是会后悔。这个问题其实很多人都在问。我身边好几个朋 友最近都在纠结这个问题。他们既想买房，又对市场的判断不太确定。所以我专门去了解了一些来自房地产业内人士的看法，试图从他们的角度来理解这个 问题。 我发现一个有趣的现象。就是，虽然不同的业内人士对房市的细节判断有差异，但他们对一些核心逻辑的认识却是一致的。这个一致性让我觉得有必要深入 讨论一下。 他给我解释了这个转变的含义。在投资为主的时代，房价上升是一个相对确定的趋势。只要你买了房子，放着不动，过几年就能升值。所以那个时候，越早 买越好，因为房价会一直往上涨。但现在进入了消费为主的时代，房子的本质就是一个居住的东西。它的价值更多地取决于它的使用价值，而不是投资价 值。在这样的时代背景下，买房的时机就没有那么关键了。 他说的一个很重要的观点就是，在消费为主 ...

"把法拍房这件事叫停，因为它本身是银行的资商，如果不急着法拍，过一段时间，银行资产又恢复 了，在股票低的时候你不要"割肉"，等一段时间就起来。"孟晓苏表示，信心问题不光是需要给居民， 而且要给这些机构。 来源：第一财经 据第一财经，近日，原国家房改课题组组长孟晓苏在2026经济展望专访上表示，法拍房一般是按断贷房 屋收回，然后以70%的房价在展拍，但是很多拍出来的就是50%，"腰斩"了。接着周边房子全都降价 了，其他的抵押房产也都搞低了，于是银行资产进一步缩水，最后法拍不出去了，落到银行手里了。银 行又拿出来拍直供房，直供房拍的东西都是法拍没拍出去的。 ...

格隆汇1月11日丨据一财，原国家房改课题组组长孟晓苏表示，贷款贴息应当用于全体有住房抵押贷款 和在还款付息的居民，都应当享受。光是用于新房贷，有些房子(贷款)付不起，它就会陆续进入法拍。 如果一旦贴息，他就可以有能力支付了。再加上金融，再加上银行再采取一些措施，孟晓苏认为，这些 都是理性的政策，整个对于居民是有好处的。 关于贷款贴息的惠及，孟晓苏建议不要再走曲折的道 路，直接一步到位，就是住房抵押贷款的利息给贴了就行，也不需要贴多久。等到经济回暖了，楼市回 暖了就不用再贴了，它并不是一个要永久实行的政策。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in December was 17,084 RMB/square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [3][8] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities was 13,016 RMB/square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [3][12] - The average rental price in 50 cities was 34.16 RMB/square meter/month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.62% [3][17] Market Performance - In December, new residential prices saw structural increases in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, while the overall market remains in a bottoming phase [5][6] - The second-hand housing market continues to experience high listing volumes, with significant month-on-month price declines [5] - The rental market is in a traditional off-season, with low demand and continued price declines in rental properties [5] Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing city-specific policies to control inventory and improve supply [4] - Recent policy changes include reducing the value-added tax on personal housing sales and easing purchase restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4] - The government aims to accelerate the construction of affordable housing and improve the housing provident fund system [4][6] Price Index Analysis - In December, 26 cities experienced an increase in new residential prices, while 68 cities saw declines [9] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 0.81% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.16% increase [8] - For second-hand properties, 100 cities reported a uniform price decline, with 27 cities experiencing declines exceeding 1% [13] Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with policies likely to be implemented to optimize restrictions in core cities and promote the acquisition of existing properties [6] - The report forecasts a 6.2% year-on-year decrease in new residential sales area in 2026, with price performance expected to remain differentiated [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing market expectations and the potential for future growth [3][14]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is undergoing a significant transition, moving from a phase of rapid expansion to one focused on quality improvement and efficiency [5][10]. - The importance of the real estate industry remains high, as it is a critical component of the national economy and a major source of wealth for residents [7][14]. - There is substantial potential for growth in the real estate market, particularly in housing services, second-hand transactions, and asset management, despite a decline in overall investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Development Stage - The industry is shifting from a phase of large-scale development to one that prioritizes quality and efficiency, indicating a fundamental change in development dynamics [5]. 2. Importance of Real Estate - The real estate sector is crucial for economic stability and social welfare, with strong linkages to various industries such as steel, cement, and home appliances [7][14]. 3. Development Potential and Space - Despite a decrease in investment, there remains significant market potential, with estimates suggesting an annual housing demand of 10 to 14.9 million units in urban areas [9][10]. 4. Measures to Improve and Stabilize Market Expectations - Policies should be decisive and aligned with market expectations, including the removal of restrictive measures and proactive risk management strategies [12][13]. - Emphasis on supply management and the expansion of real estate investment trusts (REITs) is crucial for revitalizing the market [13]. - Strengthening information monitoring and public discourse is essential to manage market expectations effectively [13][14].

证券日报网讯1月9日，保利发展（600048）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，管理层始终以维护全体 股东利益、提升公司价值为核心责任。面对行业与市场的波动，公司聚焦于全力保障公司经营安全、加 速提升资产质量与结构优化，以期夯实公司长期发展的基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market to stabilize it and support the overall economy, especially in light of recent significant changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a shift from a housing shortage to a balance in total supply, but structural supply issues remain, particularly in affordable housing [4][6]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, with projections to increase to around 41 square meters by the end of 2024, indicating a significant improvement in living conditions [3]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP is projected to be 13% in 2024, directly supporting over 70 million jobs, highlighting its critical role in the economy [5]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Future Directions - The Central Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a combination of policies aimed at risk prevention and promoting transformation [7]. - Policies such as "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" are being implemented to enhance housing supply and improve living conditions, with a focus on quality and safety in housing [7][8]. - The government is encouraging a shift from high-leverage real estate development models to more sustainable practices, emphasizing the need for a transition to a new development model that integrates product, service, and operation [4][9]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - Despite recent declines in investment, sectors like housing services and second-hand transactions continue to grow, indicating substantial market potential [5][6]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, with significant housing demand from new urban residents, suggesting ongoing opportunities for the real estate market [6]. - The article notes that the traditional real estate development model is reaching its limits, necessitating a transformation to meet evolving consumer demands for quality housing [4][5].

Group 1 - The high-tech industry is defined as sectors that operate at the forefront of scientific technology, utilizing advanced scientific knowledge and innovative technologies for research, production, and services [1] - The assessment of high-tech industries is based on four dimensions: technological field classification, innovation capability indicators, economic characteristics and policy orientation, and comparison of international and domestic standards [1] Group 2 - The data covers publicly listed companies from 1990 to 2024, indicating whether they belong to the high-tech industry across five different classification methods [2] - The dataset includes stock codes, years, stock names, industry codes, industry names, and multiple indicators to determine high-tech status [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from a housing shortage to a balance in supply and demand, necessitating effective policy measures to stabilize market expectations and promote healthy development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has experienced a substantial decline in sales and prices due to oversupply in certain projects and cities, impacting the demand side of the economy and financial institutions [1]. - The market is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with a focus on improving existing housing quality rather than expanding new construction [3]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, with projections to increase to around 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [2]. Group 2: Economic Importance - The real estate sector remains a crucial part of the national economy, contributing 13% to the GDP and directly supporting over 70 million jobs [4]. - Despite a decrease in investment scale, sectors like housing services and real estate asset management continue to grow, indicating significant market potential [5]. Group 3: Housing Demand and Supply - There is a structural supply shortage, particularly in affordable housing, with new citizens and young people facing significant housing burdens [3]. - The demand for housing is shifting from mere availability to quality, with residents increasingly seeking improved living conditions [3]. Group 4: Policy Measures - The Central Political Bureau has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting a new development model, implementing a series of policies to support this goal [7]. - Policies include enhancing housing supply, improving living conditions, and ensuring the completion of housing projects, with a focus on meeting the diverse needs of residents [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is at a critical juncture, requiring time for the transition from old to new development models, with a need for strategic policy implementation to stabilize market expectations [9]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, indicating ongoing demand for housing, particularly among new residents and graduates [6].

巴媒报道，2025-26财年上半年(2025年7-12月)，巴基斯坦证券交易委员会(SECP)注册了21668家新公 司，同比增长29%，新公司贡献307亿卢比实收资本。根据SECP数据，目前在SECP注册公司总数已达 279724家。上半年公司注册数量排名靠前行业分别为信息技术和电子商务行业(4277家)、贸易(2997 家)、服务业(2686家)和房地产业(2031家)等。 ...