2月12日，武昌万象城的联想专卖店里，不少顾客正在选购新款笔记本电脑。谈及今年1 月的生意，店员林先生印象最深的不是卖了多少台电脑，而是反复被问话："还有存储硬盘 吗？"回答经常是："没有。" 国家统计局武汉调查队发布的最新数据显示，今年1月，武汉数据存储设备价格同比上 涨85.3%。业内人士称，受AI产业需求增长与存储设备供应结构性调整等叠加因素影响，内 存价格普遍上涨。 近日，在武广泡泡玛特门店，人流量明显变大。一店员笑称，"小手办承接大情绪"，热 门盲盒得定时抢购甚至提前预订。数据显示，今年1月，武汉以盲盒手办为代表的其他文娱 用品价格同比上涨1.3%。 今年1月，武汉CPI温和上涨。业内人士分析，智能化商品、升级型服务与新能源相关 消费成为价格结构性上涨的主要推手，折射出城市消费活力、产业转型韧性。 编辑：熊展平 服务消费市场活跃，主打"为美好生活买单"。调查统计表明，1月份，定制游、深度游 成了热门搜索词，半自助游价格同比上涨4.0%；在景区找个跟拍或者旅拍成了不少人的打 卡标配，摄影服务价格同比上涨2.0%；线上观影、听书、看网文的人也在为内容付费，网 络影音服务价格同比上涨16.2%。 1月份， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that Pop Mart, a Beijing-based manufacturer of the "Labubu" dolls, has seen its revenue more than double in the first half of 2025, with 40% of its profits coming from outside China [1] Company Performance - Pop Mart's revenue growth is attributed to the global popularity of its "Labubu" dolls, which have sparked a collecting craze among adults worldwide [1] - The company is positioned as a significant player in the global market, reflecting a shift in Chinese soft power through pop culture [1] Industry Trends - The article notes that Chinese pop culture is experiencing a global breakthrough, with applications like TikTok and Temu ranking among the highest downloaded globally [1] - Chinese video games, such as "Black Myth: Wukong," are also gaining popularity on the international stage, indicating a broader acceptance of Chinese cultural products [1]

2月12日，港股市场承压，消费板块震荡调整，截至14:20，中证港股通消费主题指数下跌1.3%，指数成 分股涨跌互现，康耐特光学涨幅居前，百威亚太跌幅居前。 消息面上，商务部办公厅今日发布关于做好2026年春节假期消费品以旧换新工作的通知，其中提到，各 地要加强春节期间消费品以旧换新补贴资金保障，发挥不同渠道优势，抓好政策实施，更好满足消费需 求；顺应春节年俗、增添年味，鼓励消费者走出家门消费购物。 中证港股通消费主题指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运 动服饰、白电等高股息标的。截至2月11日，指数滚动市盈率为18.6倍，位于2020年发布以来3.9%分位 处。中国银河证券指出，消费板块当前估值处于相对低位，临近春节，促消费政策增多，消费活力逐渐 提升，消费板块有望上涨。 港股通消费ETF易方达（513070）管理费率仅为0.15%/年，是全市场港股消费类ETF中唯一的低费率产 品。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，该产品连续6个交易日获资金净流入，合计超10亿元，可助力投资者低 成本布局港股消费龙头。 ...

华西证券研报指出，携程《2026马年春节旅游市场预测》显示，在超长拼假、亲子游火热、外国游 客"反向春运"、反季节旅行升温等因素叠加下，今年春节旅游市场有望刷新"最热春节"纪录，多元需求 推动行业焕新升级，携程认为今年春节旅游市场将供需两旺、品质提升。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务 业龙头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。成分股近乎囊括港股消 费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 每日经济新闻 为抢抓春节消费旺季，从中央到地方，一系列"真金白银"的补贴、丰富多元的活动正密集落地。文 化和旅游部近日宣布启动2026年全国春节文化和旅游消费月系列活动，各地将围绕年俗、演出、展览、 冰雪游、避寒游、亲子游等热点，推出丰富多彩的应季文旅产品和活动，举办约3万场次文旅消费活 动，发放超3.6亿元消费券等补贴，推出门票减免、票根联动优惠、跨区域文旅优惠等举措，加大直达 游客的普惠政策力度。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 在地方，文旅促消费活动精彩纷呈。春节期间，北京市级财政通过"北 ...

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,266, up 0.3% for the day and 6.4% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) showed a significant increase of 1.6% for the day and 16.0% YTD [2] - The Nikkei 225 rose by 2.3% for the day and 14.5% YTD, indicating strong performance in the Japanese market [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices increased by 1.3% to US$70 per barrel, with a YTD rise of 15.2% [3] - Gold prices rose by 1.2% to US$5,084 per ounce, reflecting a YTD increase of 17.7% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 0.5% to US$13,108 per ton, with a YTD increase of 5.5% [3] Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, China's broad fiscal deficit reached a record high of RMB 12.1 trillion, accounting for 8.6% of GDP, with a public budget deficit ratio of 4% [6] - Fiscal revenue fell by 2.2% in 2025, which was RMB 640 billion below the initial budget target [6] - Broad fiscal expenditure grew by 2.2% to RMB 40.3 trillion, a decrease in growth rate of 0.4 percentage points from 2024 [6] Economic Outlook - For 2026, broad fiscal expenditure growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3%, with a projected fiscal deficit ratio narrowing to 8.2% [7] - CPI in January showed a 0.2% YoY increase, while core CPI growth weakened to 0.8% [9] - PPI decline narrowed from -1.9% in December to -1.4% in January, indicating some recovery in industrial prices [11] Sector Performance - The Chinese pop toy sector is expected to gain traction globally in 2026, driven by increased consumer familiarity and diverse IP offerings [14] - Fertiglobe's core earnings surged 87% YoY to US$325 million in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 42% YoY in 2026 [18] - SMIC reported mixed results for 4Q25, with revenue exceeding expectations but margins under pressure due to increased costs [21]

2月12日，港股大盘盘初跌幅扩大，恒指跌0.72%，恒科指跌1.44%，国企指跌0.71%，大型科网股普遍 调整。港股消费板块开盘后窄幅震荡，港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）现跌0.7%附近，持续打开低位布 局通道。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙 头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。成分股近乎囊括港股消费的 各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 消息面上，2月11日，抖音生活服务发布2026春节消费前瞻报告显示，与去年春节前同期相比，鱼灯巡 游团购销售额增长890%，冰上游玩类与家纺品类团购销售额均增长超16倍，年夜饭销售额增长185%， 酒店宾馆、客栈民宿订单增长显著，节前消费市场呈多点开花态势。情人节与春节假期接踵而至，催 生"双节消费"。1月26日至2月8日，综合商场抖音团购销售额同比增长126%，服饰鞋帽增长124%，商 超购物券增长103%。 相关数据显示，2026年春节假期国内旅游市场热度持续上涨，计划出游人数较去年同期激增300%，市 场呈现"量 ...

银河证券研报指出，展望未来，美联储短期内降息预期降低，投资者风险偏好将受影响，配置方面，科 技板块仍是中长期投资主线，在产业链涨价、国产化趋势、AI应用加速推进等多重利好共振下，有望 震荡上行；消费板块则有望持续受益于政策支持，且当前估值处于相对低位，中长期上涨空间较大，后 续需关注政策落地力度及消费数据改善情况。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙 头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的成分股近乎囊括港股消费的各 个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 每日经济新闻 2月12日，港股大盘盘初跌幅扩大，恒指跌0.72%，恒科指跌1.44%，国企指跌0.71%，大型科网股普遍 调整。港股消费板块开盘后窄幅震荡，港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）现跌0.7%附近，持续打开低位布 局通道。 2月11日，国新办举行新闻发布会。据商务部介绍，商务部启动多场消费活动，联合9部门策划"乐购新 春"春节特别活动，指导增加补贴、开展有奖发票活动等，各地已安排20.5亿元资金，通过发放消费券 等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed how active equity can create excess returns, with insights from industry experts on investment strategies in various sectors, particularly focusing on the cyclical growth opportunities in the energy metals and the lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Zhao Longlong emphasized the importance of supply-demand dynamics in identifying cyclical growth opportunities, particularly in the lithium battery industry, which is believed to be emerging from a low point due to increasing global demand for energy storage [1][5]. - The investment approach is simplified to supply-demand research, highlighting that while demand for energy metals is growing, supply is constrained due to low capital expenditure in recent years [5][9]. - The characteristics of companies that can traverse manufacturing cycles include having vision, capability, and the ability to keep pace with technological advancements [7][8]. Group 2: Market Outlook - For 2026, four key directions are anticipated: upstream resource products, manufacturing overseas, potential explosive AI applications, and a value reassessment in the new energy sector [2][12]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surpass that of electric vehicles in the coming years, marking a significant shift in the lithium battery supply chain [9][12]. - The new energy sector is projected to undergo a value reassessment, with opportunities for reversal across various fields within the industry [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][12]. Core Insights - The company has achieved global sales exceeding 400 million units, with the "THE MONSTERS" series alone accounting for over 100 million units sold [7]. - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenues between RMB 35.6 billion and RMB 43.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 173% to 234% [12]. - New product launches in late 2025 and early 2026 have generated positive market responses, with some products showing a premium of approximately 48% [12]. - The company is strengthening its long-term development foundation by expanding its membership base to over 100 million and increasing its global store count to over 700 [12]. - The company is exploring new business avenues, including jewelry, desserts, theme parks, clothing, and film [12]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are optimistic, with expected net profits of RMB 12.26 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 24.6 billion, respectively, indicating substantial growth rates [12]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of RMB 476 million in 2022, with projections of RMB 1.08 billion in 2023 and RMB 3.13 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from RMB 0.35 in 2022 to RMB 9.13 in 2025, showcasing a strong growth potential [10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 685 in 2022 to 26 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a target price of HKD 470 [1] Core Insights - Pop Mart is projected to achieve global sales of over 400 million units for its entire IP product line by 2025, with THEMONSTERS expected to contribute over 100 million units [1] - The report suggests that the increasing proportion of plush toys and overseas market sales will drive growth in average selling prices, leading to a forecasted revenue of RMB 38.4 billion, implying a year-on-year increase of 148% for Q4 2025 [1] - If the average selling price rises to RMB 100 per unit, total revenue could reach RMB 40 billion, with Q4 revenue estimated at RMB 13.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 180% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2% [1] - The report highlights that the IP value contribution from THEMONSTERS may be higher due to a greater proportion of plush toys and MEGA series, which have higher average selling prices compared to trend toys [1] - The company is expected to manage its IP portfolio more cautiously by 2026 [1]