投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-11-13 股市缩量震荡，债市情绪偏多 股指期货：缩量窄幅震荡，红利⻛格突出 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：债市情绪偏多 股指期货方面，周三沪指围绕4000点窄幅震荡，量能维持2万亿元， 风格结构进一步调整，热点持续性有限。日内交易25Q3货政报告，兑现我 们前一日的预判，长债价格高开上行，银行板块早盘冲高，红利指数强 势。而高风偏板块进一步回撤，电力设备、机械设备、计算机领跌，培育 钻石热点回撤，超额持续性一般。美国政府开门在即，外盘对内的拖累减 弱，交易回归"以我为主"。政策空窗期叠加近期缩量状态，建议科技资 金顺势向涨价链转移，价值因子配置性价比阶段提升，继续哑铃配置。 股指期权方面，各个品种成交额震荡回升，但依旧位于10月以来流动 性的较低位置。期权情绪指标走势偏弱，尤其以中证1000股指期权与科技 板块期权品种的降幅较深，期权交易情绪伴随风格切换，而与情绪相对应 的是期权波动率的走强。整体来看，市场风格轮转，暂未形成资金主线， 期权端仍建议续持备兑防御为主。 国债期货方面，昨日国债期货价格齐升。截至收盘， ...

今年以来，A股市场震荡攀升，上证指数站上4000点大关，今年以来累计涨幅近两成，A股总市值突破 108万亿元，较去年底增加超20万亿元。 据沪深北交易所数据，截至11月11日，A股总市值达108.27万亿元，较去年底A股总市值（约85.68万亿 元）增加22.59万亿元，增幅26.37%。这一增幅创下近10年同期新高，标志着中国资本市场迈入一个崭 新的发展阶段。 据统计，上交所总市值为646549.45亿元，其中流通市值608948.87亿元；深交所总市值为427161.04亿 元，其中流通市值370235.19亿元；北交所总市值为8994.83亿元，其中流通市值5534.09亿元。其中，电 子、AI产业链、半导体芯片等板块贡献逾八成的增量，凸显了"科技牛"对A股市场的强大拉动力。 回顾历史，A股市值增长可分为四个阶段：初创期（1990年至2005年），总市值从零起步至约3.5万亿 元，年均复合增长率超20%；爆发期（2006年至2007年），股权分置改革驱动市值两年暴增10倍，突破 40万亿元；震荡期（2008年至2018年），全球金融危机与经济转型下，在20万亿元至60万亿元区间徘 徊；改革红利期（201 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index around the 4000-point mark have led to increased adjustments in stock ratings by brokerages, with a total of 23 stocks upgraded and 40 downgraded since the end of October. The electronic sector saw the highest number of upgrades, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors experienced significant divergence in ratings [1]. Group 1: Stock Rating Adjustments - A total of 23 stocks have had their ratings upgraded by brokerages, while 40 stocks have been downgraded [1]. - The electronic sector had the most stocks with upgraded ratings, indicating strong institutional interest [1]. - Significant rating divergence was observed in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, suggesting varied outlooks among analysts [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages have begun releasing their investment strategies for 2026, with a generally positive outlook for A-shares in the coming year [1]. - CITIC Securities noted that the Chinese capital market is gradually transitioning to a mature market, predicting a "slow bull" market with lower volatility during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1].

有什么样的发展理念，就有什么样的发展实践。 发展观连着政绩观。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，破除"内卷式"招商引资乱象，尤须校正政绩观偏 差。 保持定力，拒绝"内卷"，株洲高新区坚持以正确政绩观、发展观引领招商引资工作，加快融入全国统一 大市场。 合同引资额持续反弹，从2022年的128.03亿元增至2024年的220.56亿元；履约率连年攀升，2021年至 2024年分别为52.31%、88.46%、100%、100%。 增减之间，照见发展观之变、政绩观之变。 "地方在推动经济发展特别是招商引资时，哪些能干哪些不能干有明确规矩，不能各行其是"。 "不要搞急功近利的政绩工程，多做一些功在当代、利在长远、惠及子孙的事情"。 ………… 习近平总书记的谆谆教诲，领航定向。 起步于1992年的湖南株洲高新区，用2021年下半年的一场主动变革，换来"破茧"新生。 有舍，挤掉水分，数据断崖式下跌—— 引进项目数、合同引资额分别由2021年上半年的51个、401亿元骤降至下半年的14个、33.38亿元。 有得，筑牢底盘，发展步子更稳当—— 湘水浩荡，逶迤北去，激起高质量发展新的浪涛。 表与里—— 求真务实，践行正确政绩观 不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 76.67 CNY [3][10][6] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached 538 million CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 40.85 million CNY, compared to a profit of 10.77 million CNY in the same period last year [2] - The company has made significant progress in the research and development of its 3D CAD products, which are expected to benefit from the domestic industrial software localization trend [9] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in domestic business, with a decline of 5.4% in the first half of 2025, while overseas business is growing rapidly at 42.2% [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.017 billion CNY, 1.172 billion CNY, and 1.384 billion CNY, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.6%, 15.2%, and 18.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 87 million CNY in 2025, 147 million CNY in 2026, and 256 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 36.1%, 68.6%, and 74.0% respectively [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain high, at 94.9% in 2025, increasing to 95.5% by 2027 [5] Valuation and Forecast - The DCF valuation model indicates an enterprise value of 11.183 billion CNY and an equity value of 13.002 billion CNY, leading to a per-share value of 76.67 CNY [11][10] - The report highlights a decrease in operating expenses due to workforce optimization, which may lead to further reductions in expense ratios in the future [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.77 CNY based on a 43x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to improve, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue driven by higher gross margins and effective cost control. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 63.96%, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company has launched scenario-based intelligent solutions, expanding its business coverage, including smart monitoring systems for various industrial applications [9]. - The proprietary model PHMGPT has been continuously updated, enhancing product intelligence and significantly reducing manual intervention in diagnostic processes [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 498 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 9.0%. However, revenue is expected to grow by 17.2% in 2024 and continue to increase in subsequent years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 63 million CNY in 2023, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 46.0%. The net profit is expected to recover with a growth of 71.5% in 2024 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.71 CNY in 2023, increasing to 1.39 CNY by 2025 and reaching 2.32 CNY by 2027 [5][10]. Valuation Comparison - The report includes a comparison of the company's valuation with peers, indicating an average PE ratio of 62.40 for comparable companies, with the company being valued at 43x for 2025 [10].

Market Overview - The average stock price of A-shares is 13.93 yuan, with 157 stocks priced over 100 yuan, an increase of 4 stocks compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14 points, down 0.07% [1] Performance of High-Value Stocks - Among stocks priced over 100 yuan, Kweichow Moutai has the highest closing price at 1465.15 yuan, up 0.42% [1] - The average price of stocks over 100 yuan increased by 0.06%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.12 percentage points [1] Recent Trends in High-Value Stocks - In the past month, high-value stocks have seen an average increase of 1.43%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.65% [2] - Notable performers include Huasheng Lithium Battery, Shannon Chip Creation, and Jiangbolong, with increases of 111.24%, 93.14%, and 72.21% respectively [2] Sector Distribution - The electronics sector has the highest representation among high-value stocks, with 57 stocks, accounting for 36.31% of the total [2] - Other significant sectors include computer and power equipment, with 18 and 16 stocks respectively [2] Institutional Ratings - Six stocks priced over 100 yuan received "buy" ratings from institutions, including Ying Shi Innovation and Ningde Times [2] - New institutional attention has been given to BeiGene-U and Aimeike [2] Price Target Analysis - Among stocks with institutional buy ratings, two stocks have an upside potential exceeding 10%, with BeiGene-U having the highest potential at 23.48% [3] - Dongpeng Beverage follows with a potential increase of 19.26% [3] High-Value Stock List - A detailed list of high-value stocks includes Kweichow Moutai, Kaimu Technology, and others, with their respective closing prices and daily changes [3][4][5][6][7][8]

Group 1: Economic Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction as the core focus, aiming to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing[9] - Key industrial development lines include "hard technology," advanced manufacturing, domestic circulation, and energy resource security[3] - The plan aims to create a market space of 10 trillion yuan by optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors over the next five years[8] Group 2: Hard Technology and Advanced Manufacturing - The plan highlights the importance of original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs, particularly in AI and digital technologies[12] - The automotive industry is expected to see accelerated commercialization of L3/L4 autonomous driving technologies during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[34] - The focus on advanced manufacturing aims to enhance the global competitiveness of traditional industries like chemicals and machinery, with a push towards smart and green manufacturing[8] Group 3: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - The plan stresses the need to boost consumption and expand effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector, to support high-quality development[3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the operational environment for construction materials and consumer goods, benefiting companies in these sectors[3] Group 4: Resource Security - The plan calls for strengthening the exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, particularly rare earths, to enhance their strategic importance[3] - It emphasizes the need for a new energy system, focusing on clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy while promoting renewable energy sources[3] Group 5: Market Outlook and Risks - The equity market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on sectors benefiting from industrial recovery and performance superiority[3] - Key risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected corporate profit growth, and geopolitical uncertainties[3]

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-owned Enterprise ESGR Index (470055) closed at 1615.9 points, down 0.46%, with a trading volume of 36.083 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.3% [1] - Among the index constituents, 14 stocks rose while 35 fell, with Zhonglai Co. leading the gainers at 4.36% and Jiadian Co. leading the decliners at 6.33% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-owned Enterprise ESGR Index are as follows: - Hikvision (sz002415) holds a weight of 10.20% and closed at 31.43, down 0.91% with a total market value of 288.052 billion yuan [1] - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) has a weight of 9.22%, closing at 4.04 with no change, and a market value of 151.152 billion yuan [1] - Wrigley (sz000858) has a weight of 8.57%, closing at 120.38, down 0.33%, with a market value of 467.268 billion yuan [1] - Weichai Power (sz000338) has a weight of 7.34%, closing at 17.90, down 2.19%, with a market value of 155.973 billion yuan [1] - Inspur Information (sz000977) has a weight of 6.49%, closing at 60.13, down 0.03%, with a market value of 88.519 billion yuan [1] - Yun Aluminum (sz000807) has a weight of 4.62%, closing at 26.00, up 4.29%, with a market value of 90.167 billion yuan [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan (sz000166) has a weight of 4.31%, closing at 5.42, down 0.91%, with a market value of 135.716 billion yuan [1] - AVIC Optoelectronics (sz002179) has a weight of 3.87%, closing at 36.14, up 1.20%, with a market value of 76.554 billion yuan [1] - Changchun High-tech (sz000661) has a weight of 3.27%, closing at 103.44, down 0.20%, with a market value of 42.197 billion yuan [1] - China Merchants Shekou (sz001979) has a weight of 3.13%, closing at 9.74, up 0.41%, with a market value of 87.816 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The index constituents experienced a net outflow of 1.442 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 839 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Zhongtung High-tech (000657) saw a net inflow of 168 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Yun Aluminum (000807) had a net inflow of 137 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - BOE Technology Group (000725) recorded a net inflow of 43.82 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Changchun High-tech (000661) had a net inflow of 27.15 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) saw a net inflow of 15.82 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% on November 12, with 11 sectors experiencing gains, led by household appliances and comprehensive sectors, which rose by 1.22% and 1.05% respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were power equipment and machinery, which fell by 2.10% and 1.23% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 58.897 billion yuan, with 5 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector had the highest net inflow, amounting to 2.402 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.61% [1] - The banking sector also saw a net inflow of 1.810 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50% [1] - A total of 26 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the power equipment sector leading with an outflow of 17.743 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with an outflow of 6.711 billion yuan [1] Computer Industry Performance - The computer industry declined by 1.04%, with a total net outflow of 6.711 billion yuan [2] - Out of 335 stocks in the computer sector, 82 stocks rose, including 1 stock that hit the daily limit, while 247 stocks fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the computer sector were Zhong An Ke (2.26 billion yuan), Aerospace Zhizhuang (2.09 billion yuan), and Gao Weida (1.06 billion yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Zhinanzhen (6.591 billion yuan), Tonghuashun (5.907 billion yuan), and Zhongke Shuguang (4.32 billion yuan) [2][3] Capital Inflow and Outflow Rankings - The top stocks in terms of capital inflow included Zhong An Ke (10.00% increase), Aerospace Zhizhuang (16.57% increase), and Gao Weida (6.49% increase) [2] - The stocks with the largest capital outflows included Zhinanzhen (-2.63% decrease), Tonghuashun (-4.11% decrease), and Zhongke Shuguang (-1.39% decrease) [3]