Report Overview - **Report Name**: Jinxin Futures Paper Industry Daily - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Research Focus**: Double - offset paper and pulp futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The double - offset paper market has an obvious over - capacity pattern with low industry operating rate and mainly rigid - demand procurement. With pulp futures oscillating downward, it is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [3] - The pulp market has seen a decline in prices in Shandong, high cumulative imports from January to September, and high port inventories. The peak season was not prosperous, and it is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - offset Paper Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Market Situation**: The domestic double - offset paper price remained stable today with light market transactions. The industry operating rate is only 55%, and there will be new production capacity put into operation in 2025, showing an obvious over - capacity pattern. The demand side is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [3] - **Cost Factor**: The pulp futures are oscillating downward [3] - **Investment Suggestion**: Short at high prices in the short term [3] Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Market Situation**: The pulp price in Shandong decreased today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The domestic port inventory remained high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous [8] - **Investment Suggestion**: Short on rebounds [8] Main Force Trends - **Pulp**: The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [11] - **Double - offset Paper**: The long - side main force increased positions, which is bullish [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company Yueyang Lin Paper has announced that its subsidiary, Chengtong Carbon Sink, has won a bid for a forestry carbon sink resource cooperation development project in Fuyuan County, Yunnan Province, which covers approximately 2.544 million acres of forestry land [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project development scope includes all forest land that meets national policy requirements and can be used for forestry carbon sink projects under various voluntary emission reduction mechanisms [1] - The initial cooperation period for project revenue is set at 20 years, subject to the final contract agreement [1] - The project will be developed under a full-process package approach, with development costs borne by the developer, and will adopt a profit-sharing model for cooperation [1] Group 2: Company Financials - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Yueyang Lin Paper is as follows: 84.81% from the paper industry, 5.44% from municipal landscaping, 4.42% from electricity, 2.13% from other businesses, and 1.9% from construction installation [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Yueyang Lin Paper is 7.9 billion yuan [1]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1. 特朗普宣称对中国加征额外100%关税，并实施严格的出口管制。美东时间2025年10月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将从2025年11月1 日起，对所有从中国进口的商品加征额外100%的关税。这一措施将叠加在现有关税基础上，使总关税水平达到130%或更高。同时，特朗普 表示，美国将对"所有关键美国制造软件"（all critical US-made software）实施严格的出口管制，禁止或限制这些软件向中国出口。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on G ...

乌拉圭《观察家报》2025年10月1日报道，乌拉圭9月商品出口额12.42亿美元，同比增长5%。牛肉是最大出口产 品，出口额2.3亿美元，同比增长42%；大豆位居第二，出口额2亿美元，增长22%；纸浆排第三，出口额1.95亿美元， 同比下降26%。中国继续保持最大出口市场地位，9月对华出口3.8亿美元，同比增长17%，占总出口的31%，其中大豆 出口1.73亿美元，同比增长53%。巴西是第二大出口目的地，出口额1.6亿美元，同比下降10%。2025年1至9月累计商 品出口（包括自贸区）总额达102.45亿美元,同比增长5%。 （原标题：乌拉圭9月商品出口同比增长5%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of state-owned companies Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen aims to assist the company in mitigating debt risks and facilitating the resumption of production operations, ensuring stable funding support for the company's recovery efforts [1][2] Group 1: Financing and Guarantees - Weifang Xingchen has secured a special RMB 2.31 billion syndicated loan from financial institutions to support the company's resumption of production [1] - The company’s subsidiary, Shouguang Kunhe, will provide collateral for the loan using part of its land and property in Shouguang City, with a guarantee amount not exceeding RMB 206.35 million and a term of no more than 5 years [1] - Jilin Xingchen will collaborate with Jilin Bank to secure funding for the Jilin base, with the company providing joint liability guarantees and collateral from its subsidiary Jilin Chenming, not exceeding RMB 240 million, also with a term of no more than 5 years [1][2] Group 2: Risk Mitigation and Operational Stability - The establishment of Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen is part of a government initiative to help the company resolve debt risks and promote the resumption of production [2] - The company aims to ensure timely procurement and supply of production materials, thereby enhancing its profitability and debt repayment capacity [2] - Both Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen have good credit status, with no default risks, ensuring that the interests of the company and its shareholders, especially minority shareholders, are not harmed [2]

Core Points - The General Administration of Customs has issued Announcement No. 195 regarding the declaration requirements for imported recycled pulp, effective from October 10, 2025 [1] - The announcement mandates that importers must specify the production method of recycled pulp as either "dry" or "wet" in the customs declaration [1] - The customs authority has emphasized a strict prohibition on the importation of foreign waste, including "foreign garbage" [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulations aim to standardize the declaration management of imported recycled pulp and enhance import supervision [1] - A meeting was held with industry stakeholders, including the China Paper Association and relevant experts, to discuss the implications of the new regulations [1][2] - The announcement follows a series of incidents since 2021 where solid waste was imported under the guise of recycled pulp, leading to re-exportation [1] Group 2: Production Processes - Proper production of recycled pulp involves multiple steps, including purification, concentration, and high-temperature drying, resulting in a fiber content of over 91.5% [2] - In contrast, dry pulp production skips most of these processes, posing greater risks due to potential contamination [2][4] - The lack of rigorous inspection processes for dry pulp imports raises concerns about microbial and heavy metal contamination [4] Group 3: Industry Impact - In 2024, the production of boxboard and corrugated paper in China reached 61.8 million tons, with 4.14 million tons of imported recycled pulp, of which approximately 3.6 million tons were dry pulp [5] - The current domestic pulp production capacity has reached 25.95 million tons, indicating that increased regulation of imported recycled pulp will not significantly impact the domestic supply chain [5] - The domestic pulp production capacity is expected to continue increasing, further reducing reliance on imported materials [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing scrutiny and regulatory measures by Chinese authorities regarding the import of recycled paper pulp, particularly in light of past incidents involving the importation of solid waste disguised as recycled materials [4][6][7]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The General Administration of Customs (GAC) and the China Paper Association are working to improve standards and strengthen customs supervision related to imported recycled paper pulp [4][5]. - A meeting will be held to discuss the current situation of recycled paper pulp imports, production processes, and the associated risks, with participation from industry experts and representatives from major paper companies [5][6]. Group 2: Import Incidents - Since 2021, there have been multiple cases of customs discovering solid waste imported under the guise of recycled paper pulp, leading to the return of over 7,000 tons of non-compliant materials [6][7]. - A recent seizure by the Qingdao Customs involved 746.78 tons of solid waste falsely declared as recycled paper pulp, underscoring ongoing issues with compliance [6][7]. Group 3: Production Processes and Risks - The article discusses the differences between dry and wet pulping processes, emphasizing that dry pulping skips essential purification steps, leading to potential contamination with harmful substances [10][11]. - Experts warn that contaminants from improperly processed recycled materials can pose significant health risks, including microbial contamination and heavy metal residues [10][11]. Group 4: Industry Standards and Recommendations - There is a strong call within the industry for stricter standards and regulations regarding the import of dry pulping products, including mandatory testing for contaminants and performance metrics [11][12]. - Suggestions include revising the national standard for recycled paper pulp to include specific requirements for fiber quality and contamination limits [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese customs authority and the China Paper Association are taking steps to strengthen regulations and standards regarding the import of recycled pulp, particularly to prevent the entry of foreign waste disguised as recycled materials [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The General Administration of Customs (GAC) is organizing a seminar to discuss the current situation of recycled pulp imports, focusing on production processes and associated risks [2]. - The GAC has a clear stance against the import of foreign waste, emphasizing a ban on any form of foreign waste entering China [1][2]. - Since 2021, there have been multiple cases of customs seizing shipments falsely declared as recycled pulp, highlighting ongoing issues with compliance [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Concerns - Experts express concerns about the dry grinding method used in producing recycled pulp, which skips essential purification processes, leading to potential contamination [6][7]. - The lack of proper processing in dry grinding can result in the presence of harmful contaminants such as plastics, heavy metals, and microorganisms, posing risks to public health and safety [6][7]. - There is a strong call within the industry for improved standards and regulations to ensure the quality and safety of imported recycled pulp [7][8]. Group 3: Historical Context - Since the implementation of the waste ban in 2021, there have been reports of foreign waste still entering China under the guise of recycled pulp, undermining the effectiveness of the ban [4][5]. - Specific incidents have been documented where shipments of substandard recycled pulp were rejected and returned, indicating ongoing challenges in enforcement [3][4].

Summary of Jiulong Paper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Jiulong Paper's sales remained strong, with sales exceeding 2 million tons in both July and August, maintaining low inventory levels [2][4] - The industry is shifting from price competition to quality competition, benefiting leading companies like Jiulong Paper [2][4] - Finished paper prices have started to rise more than waste paper prices, indicating a positive seasonal trend [2][5] Company Performance - Jiulong Paper's overall profitability has remained stable despite challenges in the cultural paper market, where profit per ton has decreased [2][7] - The white card paper business has reached breakeven, with total capacity expected to exceed 3 million tons [2][8] - The growth in profitability in the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to the development of the wood pulp business, with significant contributions from the Beihai and Hubei bases [2][10] Financial Metrics - The average cost of pulp production is below 3,000 RMB per ton, with plans to stop purchasing external wood pulp by 2026 [3][20] - The company has seen a decrease in profit margins for cultural paper, with profit per ton dropping from 700-800 RMB to 500-600 RMB [7] - The profitability of card and corrugated paper products is similar, around 80-90 RMB per ton [21] Future Outlook - The cultural paper market is expected to remain under pressure until the end of 2025, despite efforts to increase export orders [2][7] - The Beihai and Hubei bases are projected to continue ramping up production in the second half of 2025, with profitability expected to be demonstrated in FY26 [11] - The company plans to invest approximately 75-80 billion RMB in three new pulp lines, with a significant portion of the capital expenditure allocated for existing projects [12][13] Cost Management - Jiulong Paper has implemented measures to control financial costs, including repaying perpetual bonds and issuing new bonds at lower interest rates [25] - The company is also considering various options for handling its perpetual bonds, with a decision expected in 2026 [26] Management Changes - Recent management changes include the resignation of the chairman's son and the chairman's niece, who were involved in government relations and financial matters [27] Key Challenges - The cultural paper market faces challenges due to slow economic recovery and increased production capacity [2][7] - The company is dealing with external pressures from rising waste paper costs and competition in the market [4][5] Conclusion - Jiulong Paper is navigating a complex market landscape with a focus on quality competition and strategic investments in production capacity, while managing costs and addressing challenges in specific product segments.

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in paper prices, with multiple price hikes occurring in a short period, reflects a complex interplay of supply and demand factors, leading to significant market disruptions and increased costs for downstream industries [5][10]. Group 1: Price Increases - Multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, with reports indicating that there have been 10 price hikes since August, with increases ranging from 30 to 50 yuan per ton for various types of packaging paper [3][5]. - A specific paper company reported a daily shipping volume of 300 tons, with a total shipment of 10,000 tons in the month, and a price increase of 200 yuan per ton this month alone [3]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The price increases are attributed to a dual supply shortage, with rising raw material costs and adverse weather conditions impacting the availability of wood and recycled paper [7][10]. - Extreme weather events and stricter environmental regulations have led to increased production costs for paper manufacturers, which are then passed on to consumers [7][10]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The demand for paper has surged due to seasonal factors such as graduation ceremonies and e-commerce promotional events, creating a significant spike in the need for various paper products [8][10]. - The ongoing digital transformation has not fully replaced the need for paper in sectors like education and publishing, leading to continued strong demand [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The upward trend in paper prices is expected to persist, with supply chain recovery taking time and ongoing climate uncertainties likely to impact waste paper collection and logistics [10]. - Companies and consumers are advised to prepare for continued market volatility and consider strategies to manage paper usage effectively [11].