| | ●●● ■ 品 | 01378 中国宏桥 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 35,940 | 36,539 26.000 | 35.240 + +2.020 +6.08% | | | | | 34,593 | 图 图 图 图 图 图 图 图 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 | | | | | 33,620 | 图高价 35.940 | 开盘价 34.280 | 成交量 4367,04万 | | | | 服価給 33.960 | 昨政价 33.220 | 成交部 15.29亿 | | | 32,647 | 平均价 35.012 | 市葡萄TIM 12.48 | 启市值 3500.14亿 | | | 31,674 | 摄 幅 5.96% | 市梁率(3) 14.49 | 总股本 99.32亿 | | | | 换手率 0.44% | 市净率 2.884 | 液通值 3500.14亿 | | | 30.702 | 52周建高 35,940 | 受 比 5.99% | 股通股 99.32亿 | | | 29,729 | 52周德低 10.020 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 氧化铝现货价格继续下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化850元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23080元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-450元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23250元/吨，较上一交易日变化870元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-280 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-05日沪铝主力合约开于23085元/吨，收于23645元/吨，较上一交易日变化905元/吨，最 高价达23780元/吨，最低价达到23065元/吨。全天交易日成交335721手，全天交易日持仓261132手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-05，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存68.4万吨，较上一期变化1.5万吨，仓单库存82796 吨，较上一交易日变化1127吨，LME铝库存506750吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-05SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2665元/吨，山东价格录得2610元/吨，河南价格录得 269 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 有色组 相关品种：铸造铝合金、沪铝 2026年1月5日，元旦小长假后第一交易日，沪铝价格高开高走，AL2602合约收盘于23645元/吨，涨幅 3.98%；AD2602合约收盘于22410元/吨，涨幅3.99%，AL与AD价差1235元/吨。 元旦假期期间，委内瑞拉地缘政治风险提高，带动市场对南美资源被美国垄断的担忧，继而贵金属和铜 价走强。虽然南美地区对铝土矿供应几乎没有扰动，但节前铜铝比值持续走高至4.4，铝价相对偏低， 存在补涨需求。此外有色方面持续向好的行情表现对资金形成虹吸效应，进一步助推价格走高。 基本面方面，国内消费进入传统季节性淡季，社会库存开始累库，现货贴水持续扩大。电解铝行业相对 成熟，保值比例相对偏高，因此价格的上涨短期对下游加工及消费难以形成实时影响。后期需要关注下 游对价格的传导是否顺畅，季节性累库对价格难以形成利空影响，但超预期累库幅度需要关注。 实际消费走向季节性淡季基本确认，宏观及资金主导下的行情，依旧可以持续关注多铝空铝合金的套利 策略。 风险提示：美元价格波动、地缘政治风险 投资咨询业 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月3日伦铝最新库存量报506750公吨，较上个交易日减少2500吨，跌幅 0.49%。 不过，库存整体仍处历史低位，且外盘强势，短期铝价或延续偏强走势，今现铝或大涨，但需警惕高价 位伴随的高波动，预计沪铝价格高点在23300 - 24600元/吨。 长江铝业网讯：1月5日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23310元/吨，涨850元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23250元/吨，涨880元。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 宏观层面，元旦期间美国突然对委内瑞拉发动军事行动并逮捕马杜罗夫妇，这是拉美地区自1989年美国 入侵巴拿马以来最直接且戏剧性的干预。该事件点燃市场避险情绪，推动现货黄金一度涨近3%至一周 高点，也带动工业金属市场的涨势氛围。此外，此次地缘事件再度引发市场对全球贸易畅通性和供应链 稳定性的潜在担忧，推升有色金属等战略资源品溢价。全球股市走高，国际油价上扬，而美元指数受此 拖累下行，使以美元计价的铝等金属商品对买家而言更具吸引力，并刺激资金纷纷涌入风险资产推动沪 铝补涨行情，投机情绪浓烈且低库存支撑，铝价强势上扬，价格重心创下四年新高。 新浪合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

铝板块震荡走高，常铝股份涨停，中国铝业涨超8%再创15年新高，神火股份、天山铝业、南山铝业跟 涨。 ...

事件： 2025年1月6日晚，宏创控股(002379.SZ)公布发行股份购买资产暨关联交易预案，这意味着山东第一民企魏桥集团核心资产电解铝业务登陆A股的路线图正 式公布。 宏创控股以5.34元/股的价格发行股份购买山东宏拓实业有限公司（下称"山东宏拓")100%股权。山东宏拓拥有645.90万吨电解铝年产能，是全球最大的电 解铝生产商之一，2024年底净资产为486.16亿元，2024年净利润超200亿元。 点评： 宏创控股收购宏拓实业堪称鲁股并购市场的标志性事件。作为山东民企龙头，魏桥将核心电解铝资产注入A股平台，既实现资源闭环整合，又借A股估值 优势激活资产价值。此次运作精准契合鲁股并购"主业深耕+资产证券化"的典型路径，推动宏创控股跻身千亿级阵营，补全山东铝业板块的全链条龙头版 图。 2025年，山东上市公司积极并购重组，以资本整合赋能产业升级，为鲁企盘活核心资产、增强全球竞争力提供了可借鉴的样本，为山东经济高质量发展注 入了新动能。 （大众新闻·经济导报记者 于婉凝） 宏创控股表示，交易完成后，上市公司将迎来全方位提升，总资产及收入规模突破千亿元，跻身全球特大型铝业生产企业之列，并成为全球领先的铝产品 ...

中国宏桥（01378）早盘涨超6%，高见35.56港元，创上市新高。截至发稿，股价上涨6.32%，现报35.32 港元，成交额10.33亿港元。 新年伊始伦铝突破3000美元大关，创下2022年以来的最高记录；沪铝主力合约也突破2.4万元/吨关口。 中信建投证券指出，莫桑比克Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月15日转入无限期停产的消息再度令市场担心电 解铝供应的稳定性。该行认为，随着海外主要经济体PMI的回暖推升用铝需求，预计2026年全球电解铝 需求增加150~187万吨，即2%~2.5%。供需处于紧平衡状态，且建立在供应受电力威胁的基础之上，电 解铝价格易涨难跌，利润在高位继续扩张。 新年伊始伦铝突破3000美元大关，创下2022年以来的最高记录；沪铝主力合约也突破2.4万元/吨关口。 中信建投证券指出，莫桑比克Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月15日转入无限期停产的消息再度令市场担心电 解铝供应的稳定性。该行认为，随着海外主要经济体PMI的回暖推升用铝需求，预计2026年全球电解铝 需求增加150~187万吨，即2%~2.5%。供需处于紧平衡状态，且建立在供应受电力威胁的基础之上，电 解铝价格易涨难跌，利润 ...

1月6日，天山铝业涨5.03%，截至发稿，报17.76元/股，成交4.31亿元，换手率0.60%，总市值822.06亿 元。 资料显示，天山铝业集团股份有限公司位于上海市浦东新区张杨路2389弄3号普洛斯大厦9层，成立日期 1997年11月3日，上市日期2010年12月31日，公司主营业务涉及原铝、铝深加工产品及材料、预焙阳 极、高纯铝、氧化铝的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：销售自产铝锭65.26%，销售氧化铝 24.20%，销售铝箔及铝箔坯料6.89%，销售高纯铝2.10%，其他(补充)1.55%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 截至发稿，朱喆丰累计任职时间3年313天，现任基金资产总规模61.95亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 16.5%， 任职期间最差基金回报6.84%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，兴证全球基金旗下1只基金重仓天山铝业。兴全汇虹一年持有混合A（010981）三季度持有 股数115.58万股，占基金净值比例为1 ...

消息面上，新年伊始伦铝突破3000美元大关，创下2022年以来的最高记录；沪铝主力合约也突破2.4万 元/吨关口。中信建投（601066）证券指出，莫桑比克Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月15日转入无限期停产的 消息再度令市场担心电解铝供应的稳定性。该行认为，随着海外主要经济体PMI的回暖推升用铝需求， 预计2026年全球电解铝需求增加150~187万吨，即2%~2.5%。供需处于紧平衡状态，且建立在供应受电 力威胁的基础之上，电解铝价格易涨难跌，利润在高位继续扩张。 华创证券研报指出，四季度以来受全球供给因电力问题收紧及储能需求爆发预期持续，预计未来2年全 球铝供需紧平衡，当前看LME+国内铝库存总计维持120-130万吨左右，安全库存将持续维持低位，对 铝价形成向上支撑。此外考虑当前美国铝高升水接近70%，若缺电逻辑演化造成美减产，铝上涨弹性或 更强，铝成本下行电解铝利润有望维持高位，看好铝红利+弹性。而中国宏桥电解铝产能位于全球前 列，且高分红+回购持续推进，红利资产属性逐步凸显，有望核心受益。 中国宏桥(01378)涨超6%，高见35.56港元创上市新高。截至发稿，涨6.86%，报35.5港元，成交额 ...