Market Dynamics and Sentiment - A-shares experienced a downward adjustment, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline by 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07%. The market turnover decreased to 1.07 trillion yuan, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment [2] - The major indices in the US showed mixed performance, with technology stocks generally declining, including a nearly 4% drop in Google, while Apple rose over 2%. Chinese concept stocks displayed a mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.92% [2] Policy and Major Events - The US imposed tariffs on steel household appliances starting June 23, leading to a collective adjustment in the Asia-Pacific stock market. Concerns arose regarding the profit pressure on appliance exporters, particularly those reliant on the North American market, prompting some companies to consider relocating production to Southeast Asia or switching to aluminum [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the June meeting, but the "dot plot" indicated a reduction in the expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to one, signaling a more hawkish stance. Trump continued to pressure for significant rate cuts, while Powell emphasized the independence of policy, leading to increased market divergence regarding the rate cut path [3] Industry Sectors and Hotspots - The PCB industry is experiencing a surge due to increased demand driven by AI servers and electric vehicles, with leading companies like Shenghong Technology having orders extending into 2026 [5] - In the consumer electronics sector, multiple factors are driving investment opportunities in the third quarter, with a focus on concepts like HarmonyOS and solid-state batteries [6] - The charging treasure safety crisis has emerged, with multiple brands facing suspension of 3C certification, and battery supplier Amperis under regulatory investigation, exposing credit risks in the industry [7] - The extension of the cobalt raw material ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo for an additional three months may elevate cobalt prices, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tengyuan Cobalt [8] - Iran's announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz has drawn attention to the nuclear pollution prevention and oil and gas shipping concepts, with companies like Guangguang Co. and Ningbo Shipping being highlighted [9] - The National Medical Products Administration supports full lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, which is favorable for companies like Mindray Medical and United Imaging Medical [10] - The commercial use of humanoid robots in China is expected to reach 60,000 units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 95.3%, benefiting companies like Tongda Power and Zhengye Technology [11] Company Dynamics and Capital Operations - China Railway Construction's 3.856 billion shares of restricted stock were unlocked on June 23, accounting for 72.29% of the total share capital, which may exert pressure on the stock price [12] - Guangting Information's 48.547 million shares of restricted stock were unlocked, representing 52.41% of the total share capital, involving four shareholders [13] - Beijing Junzheng's stock registration date is June 23, with a proposed cash dividend of approximately 48.16 million yuan [14] - Jianfa Real Estate's 670 million yuan bond was fully redeemed on June 23 [15] - Yihua Co. held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to review the repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock and the reduction of registered capital, which may impact the company's capital structure [16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **financial markets**, including **U.S. stocks**, **A-shares**, **H-shares**, **gold**, **bonds**, and the **semiconductor industry**. Additionally, geopolitical factors, particularly the **Middle East situation** and **U.S. Federal Reserve policies**, are significant themes. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Federal Reserve's Policy Impact** The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June but revised upward its unemployment and PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while downgrading economic data, raising concerns about stagflation in the market [2][3][4] 2. **Middle East Geopolitical Tensions** The U.S. has conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the onset of a nuclear conflict phase. However, the situation is expected to remain controlled, with a low probability of extreme events occurring [2][5] 3. **Gold Market Dynamics** Despite a 1.8% decline in gold prices recently, the long-term outlook remains positive, suggesting a strategy of dollar-cost averaging for investment [7][17] 4. **A-shares and H-shares Market Performance** Both markets are experiencing adjustments, influenced by external events and concerns over earnings reports. Defensive strategies focusing on AI, military, and stable industries are recommended [6][8][9][18] 5. **Bond Market Trends** Bond yields have slightly decreased, with expectations of liquidity tightening in the coming weeks. A recommendation to reduce positions and focus on short-term bonds is advised [11][12] 6. **Semiconductor Industry Growth** The PCB industry is expected to benefit from increased demand for North American ASIC chips, with projections indicating a market size of approximately $3 billion in 2025 and over $5-6 billion in 2026 [3][23] 7. **Investment Strategies in Current Economic Environment** The overall market sentiment is cautious due to various uncertainties, with a focus on defensive strategies and identifying sectors with potential growth, such as AI and military-related industries [13][14][18] 8. **Market Liquidity Expectations** The next two weeks are anticipated to be the peak of liquidity in the financial market, after which a marginal tightening is expected, impacting both long-term bonds and equities [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Short-term vs Long-term Investment in Gold** The gold market should be analyzed from both a long-term investment perspective and a short-term trading strategy, with the latter suggesting potential reductions in holdings [17] 2. **Impact of External Factors on A-shares and H-shares** The performance of A-shares and H-shares is significantly influenced by external factors, including foreign capital movements and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to adjustments in investment strategies [15][18] 3. **Emerging Opportunities in the PCB Sector** The PCB sector is poised for growth driven by ASIC chip demand, with specific companies like Huadian and Shengyi Technology highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][25] 4. **Defensive Investment Recommendations** In light of current market conditions, investments in defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities are recommended, alongside monitoring for opportunities in AI and military sectors [8][9][18] 5. **Trends in the White Wine Sector** The white wine sector is experiencing a rebound due to changes in consumption regulations and low valuations, indicating potential for growth [29][31] 6. **Short Drama Market Development** The short drama market is evolving under new regulations, with a focus on quality content production, which may benefit companies involved in this sector [26][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations derived from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic considerations.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The PCB industry is benefiting from increased demand for computing power, with a steady recovery in high-end board demand. The global PCB market is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in 2024 and by 6.8% in 2025. High-layer and HDI product categories are projected to grow by 40% and over 10% respectively in 2025, reflecting optimistic expectations for AI computing power demand [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Increased investment in the AI industry has positively impacted the PCB sector. The total addressable market (TAM) for data centers has been revised upward by 29% to $55.4 billion. Major overseas FSP manufacturers reported a 60% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure in Q1 2025, with Meta raising its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion [1][5]. - High-layer HDI products have a significant competitive advantage in AI servers, requiring low cost, high yield, and stable mass delivery. High-end HDI products must maintain a layer error of within 20 microns, which demands advanced technical research and experienced teams [1][6]. - CCL materials like PTFE are suitable for high-speed interconnect applications due to their low dielectric constant and low loss factor, which help maintain signal integrity, especially for GPU high-speed interconnects [1][8]. - The upstream copper-clad laminate market is experiencing a shortage of high-end materials, leading to price increases. For instance, the price of copper-clad laminates has risen by approximately $5 per unit due to rising raw material costs [1][9]. Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities in the PCB sector are primarily driven by structural trends related to computing power, particularly the steady recovery in high-end board demand. The PCB market is projected to reach approximately $73.6 billion in 2024, with significant growth expected in high-layer and HDI products [1][4]. - The PCB industry is currently in a critical upward cycle of computing power demand, suggesting that some leading PCB companies still have investment value despite previous lower valuations during downturns [1][11]. Mobile Optical Industry Insights - The mobile optical industry has seen a recovery in market size after a period of adjustment, with expected growth driven by technological upgrades and a more favorable competitive landscape. The market for mobile camera modules is projected to grow by over 7%, primarily driven by an increase in average selling prices (ASP) [3][12]. - Future technological upgrades in mobile optics will focus on innovations in lenses, voice coil motors, and image sensors. The industry is expected to return to a healthy competitive state, with mainland Chinese manufacturers likely to increase their market share [3][14]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Recent price increases in general products are attributed to inventory reduction, capacity removal, and improved competitive dynamics, alongside strong demand from AI and automotive electronics for mid-to-high-end products. This price increase trend is expected to continue [3][10]. - The mobile optical sector is experiencing a recovery in profit margins and revenue, with the potential for sustained improvement depending on technological advancements and competitive dynamics [3][13]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the mobile optical sector include Sunny Optical, GoerTek, and others involved in lens and module production. Additionally, upstream suppliers like Lante Optics and Crystal Optoelectronics are also recommended for further investigation [3][19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing a technological revolution driven by the demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, foldable phones, and robotics, leading to a significant increase in PCB demand and domestic manufacturers accelerating high-end capacity expansion [1] Group 1: AI Servers - AI servers require advanced PCBs with increased layers, leading to a cost increase of 3 times compared to traditional boards, with prices for specialized materials being over 5 times that of standard materials [2][4] - Major manufacturers like Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co. have AI server PCB orders booked until Q1 2026, with some companies operating at full capacity 24/7 [4] - The global market for high-layer PCBs (18 layers and above) is expected to grow at a rate of 41.7% by 2025 [4] Group 2: Electric Vehicles - The value of PCBs in electric vehicles has doubled, with a single vehicle's PCB value reaching 1500-2000 RMB, which is twice that of traditional fuel vehicles [5] - Advanced driving systems require 16-layer HDI boards, with prices exceeding 5000 RMB, and domestic market share for these boards has increased from 30% in 2023 to 45% [6] - The global automotive PCB market is projected to reach 9.4 billion USD by 2025, driven by the production of 77GHz radar boards for Tesla's Robotaxi [9] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - The integration level in consumer electronics is increasing, with the mainboard area of the iPhone 16 Pro reduced by 20.7% while accommodating more AI chips, thanks to SLP technology [10] - Companies like Pengding Holdings are investing significantly in expanding high-end HDI production lines, with a 50% increase in capacity at their Huai'an factory [10] - The penetration rate of HDI boards in consumer electronics is expected to exceed 35% due to the rise of AI PCs, with monthly order growth of 20% for AI PC PCBs [10] Group 4: Robotics - The demand for PCBs in the robotics sector is structurally increasing, with companies like Yushu Technology and UBTECH focusing on high-density and high-reliability PCB requirements [11] - The robotics industry is pushing for upgrades in PCB technology, indicating a broad long-term growth potential [11] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The global PCB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, with AI servers, 800G switches, and robotics applications driving a 3-5 percentage point increase in industry gross margins [13] - The PCB industry is currently in a dual-cycle resonance period of "technological upgrades and domestic substitution," with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shengyi Technology poised for breakthroughs in AI computing, automotive electronics, and robotics [13]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Marvell has raised its expectations for data center capital expenditures (Capex) and ASICs, predicting that by 2028, data center Capex will exceed $1 trillion. The market size for data centers is now expected to reach $94 billion by 2028, a 26% increase from the previous estimate of $75 billion made in April 2024. The guidance for the custom computing chip market (XPU and XPU supporting chips) has been raised by 37% [1][9] - The demand for computing power has seen a leap in growth over the past two years, driven by the rise of computing chips. Despite concerns over sovereign computing and declining capital expenditures, companies like OpenAI continue to show rapid revenue growth and an increase in commercial paying customers. Major tech firms such as Oracle and Meta have also raised their Capex expectations, indicating strong overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprise clients [2][11] - The ASIC and GPU competitive landscape is benefiting from support from overseas CSP manufacturers, leading to an upward revision in market size expectations and positively impacting the PCB industry chain. The computing sector is expected to maintain strong underlying demand and valuation support, with high-speed optical modules still undervalued [2][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Expectations - Marvell's updated forecast indicates that the overall data center Capex will maintain a CAGR of 51%, reaching $593 billion by 2025 and $1.022 trillion by 2028. The four major CSPs in the U.S. are expected to see their Capex grow at a CAGR of 46% from 2023 to 2025, reaching $327 billion by 2025 [7][9] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended beneficiaries in the computing sector include: - High-speed optical modules: NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication - CPO-related beneficiaries: Taicheng Light, Yuanjie Technology - PCB-related beneficiaries: Shenghong Technology, Hude Electronics - Telecom operators: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom - Related service providers: Invec, New Ray Energy, and third-party computing leasing firms like Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Data Port [2][3][14]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.51% to close at 3359.9 points [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only a few sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and electronics saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, and medical biology faced significant declines [2] - Notably, sub-sectors like stablecoins, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and solid-state batteries showed active performance [2] Company Highlights - A total of 208 listed companies released investor research summaries, with around 50 institutions reporting positive returns. Companies like Yishijingmi and Yuanhang Precision saw weekly gains exceeding 20%, while Lin Tai New Materials and others achieved gains over 10% [2] - The electronics sector garnered the highest attention, with companies like Lexin Technology receiving over 250 institutional inquiries, and Nanjiguang hosting more than 60 [2] Nanjiguang's Performance - Nanjiguang's stock surged due to its status as the only certified backlight module supplier for Nintendo, coinciding with the impressive sales of the newly launched Switch 2, which sold over 3.5 million units within four days of release [2][4] - The successful mass production of the Switch 2 project validates Nanjiguang's core technological capabilities and quality control systems, potentially driving further orders in various sectors including gaming and automotive displays [4] PCB Market Insights - The PCB sector has shown strong performance, with CITIC PCB reporting a cumulative increase of 6% in stock prices. The market is expected to enter a new phase of capacity expansion driven by demand from emerging markets and AI technology [4] - Companies like Huidian and Shennan Circuit confirmed high capacity utilization rates, with expectations of increased demand for high-performance PCB products due to the accelerating evolution of AI technology [5] Energy Market Impact - The Middle East situation has influenced global energy market trends, with companies like Jereh and Huarong focusing on strategic market expansions in the region. Jereh plans to explore more collaboration opportunities while Huarong emphasizes the long-term nature of oil investments despite short-term price fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB sector, particularly companies related to computing power and data centers, is experiencing significant activity, with notable interest from social security funds in specific companies [1]. Group 1: Company Highlights - Guanghe Technology is the leading domestic server PCB supplier in China, with products used in high-performance computing servers, AI computing servers, storage servers, and core data center equipment [3]. - Aoshikang also focuses on PCBs, with applications in data centers, servers, AIPC, communication and network devices, and automotive electronics [10]. Group 2: Fund Holdings - In the first quarter, social security funds made new investments in Guanghe Technology, acquiring approximately 500,000 shares, making it the sixth largest circulating shareholder [4]. - Aoshikang saw new investments from social security funds, with two funds becoming the eighth and ninth largest circulating shareholders [11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Guanghe Technology has shown consistent revenue growth for eight consecutive years, with a total increase of 130% over the last five years, averaging 26% annually [7]. - The company's net profit, excluding non-recurring items, has surged from 120 million in 2020 to 678 million in 2024, reflecting a 465% increase over five years, averaging close to 100% annual growth [9]. - Aoshikang's revenue growth over five years is 55%, averaging 11% annually, which is lower compared to Guanghe Technology [13]. - Aoshikang's net profit growth is limited, with a forecast of revenue increase without profit growth in 2024, attributed to rising sales expenses [15].

Index Level - The Shanghai Composite Index is still in a downward adjustment phase, with support around the gap at 3320 [3][4] - The ChiNext Index has fallen below its short-term moving averages, indicating potential weakness [3] - Overall market sentiment is low, with a trading volume of only 1.06 trillion, down by 185.7 billion, and a net sell-off of nearly 30 billion by domestic investors [3][4] Market Conclusion - The market is expected to continue its adjustment, and any potential rebounds should be viewed as temporary [4] - Investors should avoid chasing prices and consider maintaining around 50% of their positions [4] Sector Analysis - The banking and insurance sectors are showing strength, while brokerage firms are underperforming [5] - Consumer sectors like liquor are experiencing a rebound, but sustainability is uncertain [6] - The solid-state battery sector remains active, while some technology stocks are showing strength [5] Banking Sector Insights - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a lack of alternative investment options, with banks offering around 4% dividend yields [7] - Investors are advised to hold existing positions in banks or cautiously enter with a portion of their capital [7] Hot Sector Breakdown - CPO is in a corrective phase but maintains an upward trend, presenting potential buying opportunities [7] - PCB shows a similar upward trend despite recent fluctuations, indicating potential for speculative opportunities [7] - The storage chip sector is in a consolidation phase, requiring further observation for potential upward movements [7] Additional Sector Observations - The innovative drug sector is in its sixth day of adjustment, with a downward trend persisting [8] - Stablecoins and digital currencies are showing signs of trend reversal, necessitating caution if they break below key support levels [8] - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a slowdown in momentum, but short-term trading opportunities may still exist [8]

一、行情 6月20日，PCB板块迎来连续走强。诺德股份4连板，中京电子3连板，正业科技（20CM）、光华科技盘中涨停，中一科技、逸豪新材、德龙激光、铜冠铜箔 等集体走强。 二、事件：多家PCB厂商积极看好+中国台湾PCB厂商同比增速显著 1）胜宏科技6月13日的机构调研纪要显示，该公司表示坚定"拥抱AI,奔向未来",精准把握AI算力技术革新与数据中心升级浪潮带来的历史新机遇,2025年一季 度，AI算力、数据中心相关产品收入占比超过40%。 沪电股份在6月11日的调研中对机构表示，AI驱动的服务器、数据存储和高速网络基础设施需求增长以及新兴应用领域的拓展为行业带来发展机遇,市场上相 关高阶产品的产能供应并不充裕,公司近两年已加大对关键制程和瓶颈制程的投资力度,预计2025年下半年产能将得到有效改善。 2）从台湾地区PCB行业月度营收数据来看，据财信证券统计，金像电、瀚宇博4、5月的单月营收持续稳定在历史高位区间，同比增速显著。 3）随云厂商积极自研ASIC芯片，ASIC正成为AI服务器市场中与GPU并行的重要架构，进一步带动高阶PCB的需求。 展望2025年，除AWS外，谷歌、meta的新产品中，ASIC服务 ...

Group 1 - The PCB concept sector experienced a short-term surge, with notable stocks such as Nord Shares (600110) and Zhengye Technology (300410) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Zhongjing Electronics (002579) previously reached the limit up, while companies like Zhongyi Technology (301150) and Qiangli New Materials (300429) saw increases exceeding 10% [1] - Other companies including Defu Technology (301511), Jiangnan New Materials (603124), Jiayuan Technology, Guanghua Technology (002741), and Tianshan Electronics (301379) also followed the upward trend [1]