Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion of the company's convertible bonds "铜陵定02" and the changes in the company's share capital structure, highlighting the bond's conversion period and price adjustments [1]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 12, 2023, to issue 2,140,476,679 shares and 3,336,626 convertible bonds to purchase related assets, with a fundraising limit of up to 2.146 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 21,460,000 convertible bonds were issued, with the bond code "124024" and the bond name "铜陵定02," which were registered on October 23, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 3.38 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 3.30 yuan and then further reduced to 3.20 yuan due to annual equity distribution adjustments [1]. Group 3: Conversion and Share Capital Changes - As of the announcement, the remaining number of convertible bonds "铜陵定02" is 21,419,990, with the remaining amount reflecting the company's capital structure [1][2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price exceeded 80,700. The macro - environment improved due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with a weakening US dollar. The inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 0.84 million tons compared to last week. The combination of macro and industrial factors is expected to keep the copper price strong [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated upwards, and the position increased. The main contract price exceeded 20,600. The global macro - environment was favorable, but the downstream purchasing intention declined after the price increase, and the destocking of social inventory slowed down. The high profit of electrolytic aluminum plants led to large hedging pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure as the price approached the mid - June high [6]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly above 120,000 and rose in the afternoon with the non - ferrous sector. The global macro - environment improved, and the nickel price rebounded from the bottom. The upstream nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remained strong, the downstream stainless steel was weak, and nickel sulfate was stable. After the price rebounded and exceeded 120,000, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 1st, Jinchuan Group Copper and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. successfully completed its first deep - processing transfer business of non - ferrous metal processing trade. On June 30th, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 123,500 tons, a decrease of 0.84 million tons compared to the 23rd and 0.83 million tons compared to the 26th [9]. - **Aluminum**: In the first half of 2025, 74 domestic aluminum projects started or were put into production, including 49 projects such as Southwest Aluminum's 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum circular economy equipment project and 25 projects such as Lizhong Group's high - performance aluminum alloy new material project [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 1st, for the refined nickel in the Shanghai market, the mainstream reference contract was SHFE nickel 2508. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,720 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was + 600 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,770 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,920 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,270 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spread, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/7/1 | 莫骁雄 | 王荣 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0019413 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/7/1 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/6/24 | 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the copper market, due to the uncertain S232 investigation on copper and the anticipation of US copper tariffs, a large amount of electrolytic copper has flowed to the US, leading to low inventory levels in the LME and domestic markets. The copper market is in a tight - balance situation prone to short - squeezes. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply - demand balance is expected to be flat, with a short - term stable fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation mindset for zinc and hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - In the nickel market, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply cuts by some steel mills, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory has slightly increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warrants. However, actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected that lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in primary supply and weak demand in July [7]. - Tin prices have fluctuated upwards, mainly affected by commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline. In the short term, long - positions can be cautiously held, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period can be considered in the medium - to - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long term, prices are expected to be anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" competition policies may drive sentiment up [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the premium changed by - 13, and the LME inventory decreased by 650 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: The market is worried about the S232 investigation. The anticipation of US copper tariffs has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, resulting in low inventory levels and increased price volatility [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, and the LME inventory increased by 550 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be flat [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 1750 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 288 tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan slightly increased [6]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamental situation is weak, with supply cuts by some steel mills and mainly rigid demand [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level due to speculation, but actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the spot import profit decreased by 1572.76, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have fluctuated upwards due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 271 [13]. - **Market Situation**: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 24 to June 30, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 150, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 630 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [15].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.01%至 9878 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.01%至 79780 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度较大。宏观方面，昨日特朗普在接受媒 | | | | 体采访时表示，无需延长即将到期的关税期限，将在未来几天内向包括日本在内的数 | | | | 百个国家发送信函，单方面告知各国对美出口商品的关税税率，而非继续进行贸易谈 | | | | 判。这或意味着 7 月关税期限到期前后风险事件可能再现。另外，昨日特朗普发文再 | | | | 次批评美联储主席鲍威尔和整个美联储理事会不降息的作为。国内方面，国家统计局 | | | 铜 | 公布数据显示，6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 | | | | 水平继续改善。库存方面，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 90625 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 | | | | 1749 吨至 191607 吨； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 1, 2025. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 1, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,990, the LME price was 10,059, and the ratio was 7.97; the three - month price was 79,680, the LME price was 9,878, and the ratio was 8.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a loss of 1,666.99, and a profit of 1,406.63 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,500, the LME price was 2,770, and the ratio was 8.12; the three - month price was 22,445, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 6.17. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.64, with a loss of 1,440.41 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,780, the LME price was 2,598, and the ratio was 8.00; the three - month price was 20,495, the LME price was 2,599, and the ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 1,404.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,900, the LME price was 15,025, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.23, with a loss of 2,486.93 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 8.39; the three - month price was 17,225, the LME price was 2,049, and the ratio was 10.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a loss of 875.89 [2]. Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 210, - 400, - 640, and - 870 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 903, 1312, and 1722 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5, - 45, - 100, and - 155, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 580 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 200, - 285, - 385, and - 490, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125, 150, 130, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 530 [3]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 510, 590, 730, and 850 [3]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 1410, and the theoretical spread was 5538 [3]. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 105 and - 105, and the theoretical spreads were 301 and 714 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10 and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 130 and 261 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 275, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 264 [4]. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.55, 3.89, 4.63, 0.91, 1.19, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.59, 3.80, 4.83, 0.94, 1.27, and 0.74 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Market expects the Fed to enter an interest - rate cut cycle in July or September, weakening the US dollar and boosting copper prices. The tight supply in other regions and the continuation of "strong reality" in the fundamentals support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may rebound, and the shortage trend is hard to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, with a reference range of 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina market maintains a slight surplus in the short - term, with prices expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2750 - 3150. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro environment and low inventory but limited by the off - season, expected to be in high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 20000 - 20800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. The market will continue to suppress price increases, but the stable aluminum - aluminum alloy price spread and the strong electrolytic aluminum price provide support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 19200 - 20000 [4]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side is weakening. It is advisable to take a high - short approach, with a focus on the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes. The reference range for the main contract is 22500 - 23000 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market has a short - term price rebound due to improved sentiment. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated. The cost support has weakened, and the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with a reference range of 116000 - 124000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a short - term price rebound affected by news and sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The price is expected to operate weakly, with a reference range of 12300 - 13000 [11]. Tin - The tin supply recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at high levels based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term price rebound due to news and sentiment. The supply is sufficient with clear pressure, and the demand is hard to boost. The price is expected to operate within a range of 58000 - 64000, and attention should be paid to upstream production and downstream orders [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 80125 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 35.34%. The import profit and loss was - 2990 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%, and imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 10.83% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20890 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The import profit and loss was - 1169 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.12% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose to 20100 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66%. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 6.74% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22570 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. The import profit and loss was - 1307 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%, and imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.13% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 4.16% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 12700 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.28% [11]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose to 269000 yuan/ton, up 1.20%. The import profit and loss was - 14640.51 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, up 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, down 2.37% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 61150 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis was - 2190 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, down 2.34%. The total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a daily overview of the non - ferrous metals market, including price movements, inventory changes, and supply - demand analysis for various metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. It also offers short - term price forecast ranges for each metal [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: Last week, LME copper rose 2.26% to $9,879/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,920 yuan/ton. This week, SHFE copper is expected to trade between 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between $9,600 - 10,000/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Three major exchanges' inventory decreased by 20,000 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19,000 to 82,000 tons, LME decreased by 8,000 to 91,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 7,000 to 190,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons [2]. - **Supply - demand**: Copper raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and Chinese exports are increasing, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: On Friday, LME aluminum rose 0.39% to $2,595/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton. The expected trading range for SHFE aluminum is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,550 - 2,620/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8,000 to 34,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,000 to 314,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 8,000 to 345,000 tons [4]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, providing strong support for prices. But as prices rise, the negative feedback from the consumption side increases, restricting upward movement [4]. Lead - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.55% to 17,126 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,031.5/ton. The overall lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of SHFE lead may be limited [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory is 45,900 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. LME lead inventory is 273,300 tons [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Primary supply remains high, while secondary supply is tight. Lead - acid battery prices stop falling and rise, and downstream procurement improves [5]. Zinc - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.79% to 22,377 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,770/ton. The strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may cause market sentiment disturbances, and the LME Cash - 3S structure boosts zinc prices [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory is 6,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. LME zinc inventory is 119,900 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Zinc ore supply remains high, and TC continues to rise. There is a high expectation of zinc ingot production increase, but some smelters' production changes affect inventory accumulation [6]. Tin - **Price**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Domestic tin prices are expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national major market tin ingot social inventory is 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, and upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, terminal demand is weak, and the industry chain is in a stalemate [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The recommended operation is to short at high prices. SHFE nickel is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The combined domestic and LME visible inventory is 240,000 tons, a decrease of 726 tons from last week [8]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On Friday, the MMLC late - session price was 61,177 yuan, up 1.16% from the previous working day. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 62,600 - 64,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level, and the trend may continue until the beginning of the peak season in August [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals have not changed substantially. Although prices have rebounded, the supply - clearing process slows down, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On June 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.29% to 2,990 yuan/ton. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 30,300 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day [12]. - **Supply - demand**: The alumina production capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change, and prices are expected to be anchored by costs [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 119 tons from the previous day. The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [15]. - **Supply - demand**: The market supply exceeds demand, and demand is weak. Although there are production - cut news, the pattern has not changed [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: Last week, the AD2511 contract rose 0.76% to 19,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to trade in a short - term volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the change of the premium over the spot [17]. - **Inventory**: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory continued to increase, and the total of social and factory inventory increased [17]. - **Supply - demand**: In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and prices mainly follow the cost - side (mainly affected by aluminum prices) [17].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...