Group 1 - Apple Store in Beijing has officially joined the national subsidy program, offering discounts up to 2000 yuan on selected products, such as the iPhone 17 256GB, which is now priced at 5499 yuan after a 500 yuan subsidy [4] - ST Cube may face mandatory delisting due to significant violations, with reported false revenue of approximately 591.58 million yuan for 2021 and 2022, constituting 50.91% of the total reported revenue for those years [4] - WeChat's HKD wallet has launched a donation section to support fire rescue efforts in Tai Po, with no administrative fees deducted from donations, ensuring all funds go directly to charitable organizations [5] Group 2 - New regulations in Beijing require special license plates for delivery and takeaway vehicles, enhancing management of non-motorized vehicles [2] - Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, emphasized that all industries should leverage AI for transformation, predicting a new trillion-dollar market through deep integration of AI with traditional industries [2] - Sohu Video plans to restart its American drama procurement, citing severe piracy as a barrier for many platforms [3] Group 3 - Vanke's stock price has dropped to a nearly 10-year low, with a significant decline of 3.66% on November 28, following a downgrade in credit ratings by S&P [3] - Taobao's flash purchase service will expand the cancellation of late fees to 60 cities by December 3, aiming to improve service for delivery riders [3] - The domestic fuel surcharge for flights will increase starting December 5, with fees rising by 10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for longer flights [7] Group 4 - Miniso's global flagship store in Shanghai has achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan within nine months, marking a record for global stores [7] - Major tech companies are focusing on space, with Google aiming to deploy TPU in space by 2027, while Amazon's founder predicts data centers will move to space in the next 10 to 20 years [8] - A global shortage of storage chips is worsening, with predictions of a 50% price increase by mid-2026 due to rising demand from AI infrastructure [8]

来源：明河投资 作者：胡一帆 本文写作时间：2025年10月8日 马拉松资本是一家伦敦的资产管理公司，他们在行业内极度低调，不做任何营销，客户全部是主动找上 门的机构投资者，十几个人的投资团队管理超过500亿美金的资产，在业内有极高的品牌认可度。 他们写过一本书叫《资本周期》（也有翻译成《资本回报》）非常有名。书中提及，马拉松资管喜欢两 种类型的公司——"持续优势"（增长型）和"困境反转"（价值型）。马拉松资本使用一个被称为"回报 衰减率"的框架，寻找两类投资对象，如下图所示： 投资对象A：一家能持续获得高于市场预期回报的公司（图上部虚线），即公司维持回报高于市场平均 水平的时间更长。 市场对A的"错误定价"源于：由于A短期遇到了问题（也可能是犯了某些战略上的错误），导致业绩下 滑，市场认为A的辉煌时代已经过去，由此给予较低估值。 也就是说，当一个具备好的商业模式、企业文化的企业，遇到一个未来能大概率能解决的问题时，市场 定价的短视导致这类公司往往会出现好的买入机会。 典型的案例就是2014-2016年期间的苹果，2011年乔布斯去世后，库克上任，苹果销量下滑，而安卓手 机阵营增长迅猛（华为、OPPO、VIV ...

Core Insights - The launch of the Huawei Mate 80 series has generated significant consumer interest, with long queues at physical stores and rapid online sales, indicating strong market anticipation for the new devices [1][3] - The success of the Mate 80 series is attributed to its competitive pricing strategy, which stands out in a market where high-end devices are generally increasing in price [3][4] - The Mate 80 series showcases substantial advancements in product capabilities, including design innovations and enhanced imaging technology, reinforcing Huawei's high-end brand image [4][7] Pricing Strategy - The Mate 80 series is priced attractively, with the Mate 80 starting at 4699 yuan, Mate 80 Pro at 5999 yuan, and Mate 80 Pro Max at 7999 yuan [3] - Additional promotional offers, such as 1200 yuan in benefits and trade-in subsidies, further lower the effective purchase price, contributing to its popularity [3] Product Features - The Mate 80 series features a new dual-ring design that enhances its aesthetic appeal and signifies advancements in imaging capabilities [5][7] - The devices are equipped with the second-generation red maple imaging system, improving color accuracy and consistency across various shooting modes [7][9] - The Mate 80 series runs on HarmonyOS 6, which boosts overall performance by 35%, facilitating complex imaging tasks and enhancing user experience [9][10] Ecosystem Development - Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem has matured, with over 300,000 applications and a compatibility rate exceeding 95%, indicating robust growth and user adoption [10] - The upgrade from HarmonyOS 5 to 6 marks a significant improvement in system usability, showcasing Huawei's commitment to ecosystem development [10] Privacy and Security Enhancements - The Mate 80 series includes advanced privacy features, such as proactive screen privacy protection and enhanced file sharing controls, ensuring user data security [12] - New communication technologies, including emergency communication capabilities, provide critical connectivity in disaster scenarios, enhancing the device's utility [12][14] Market Positioning - In a slowing innovation landscape, Huawei's continuous investment in technology and market insights reinforces its leadership position in the high-end smartphone market [14] - The Mate 80 series is expected to achieve strong sales performance, further solidifying Huawei's status as a benchmark in the premium segment [14]

Group 1: Apple Podcasts Security Issue - Apple Podcasts users are experiencing automatic launches of the app to unfamiliar programs in the "religion, spirituality, and education" categories, indicating a widespread security issue [1] - The automatic loading of these podcasts is linked to a cross-site scripting (XSS) attack, where hackers inject malicious code into podcast titles or descriptions [1] - Security expert Patrick Wardle highlighted the risk of Apple allowing external links to wake the podcast app without user authorization [1] Group 2: EU Regulation Changes - The EU has removed the mandatory scanning of user data for child sexual abuse material (CSAM) from its draft regulations, shifting focus to broader risk mitigation measures [2][3] - This change means that tech giants like Apple will not have to compromise end-to-end encryption to comply with regulations [2] Group 3: Smartphone Market Performance - According to CounterPoint Research, smartphone sales in China during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival increased by 3% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong performance from Apple's iPhone 17 series [5] - Excluding Apple's contribution, the smartphone market actually saw a decline of 5%, indicating a cautious consumer environment influenced by macroeconomic pressures [5] - CounterPoint's senior analyst Ivan Lam attributed the success of the iPhone 17 series to precise product and pricing strategies [5] Group 4: Xiaomi and Huawei Developments - Xiaomi's upcoming 17 Ultra smartphone, codenamed "Nezha," features a three-camera setup and is expected to support satellite communication [7] - Huawei's Mate 80 RS has shown a performance improvement of 45% over its predecessor, the Mate 70 RS, thanks to the new Kirin 9030 Pro processor [9]

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is "persisting to the extreme," highlighting the importance of long-term commitment and dedication across various industries [1] - The story of academic and practical contributions in soybean breeding by Guo Junyi, who has dedicated over 60 years to the field, exemplifies the value of long-termism in scientific research [1] - The Blue Sky Rescue Team volunteers demonstrate extraordinary courage through their consistent and selfless actions during emergencies, emphasizing that greatness often lies in the mundane and persistent efforts [2] Group 2 - The launch of the brand video "A Letter from Andy Lau" resonates across different circles, where the artist reflects on the significance of repeated practice and hard work over innate talent [2] - Huawei's "Ultimate Design" philosophy aligns with the spirit of persistence and excellence, focusing on the idea that extraordinary results come from dedication and hard work [4][5] - The Huawei Mate 80 RS Ultimate Master embodies this brand value through its exceptional craftsmanship, reliability, and aesthetic appeal, rather than just technical specifications [7] Group 3 - The Huawei Mate 80 RS Ultimate Master enhances user experience with advanced features such as full-link BT.2020 ultra-wide color gamut technology and dual SIM capabilities, ensuring reliable connectivity for users [9] - The launch event for the Huawei Mate series symbolizes a commitment to continuous innovation and exploration, reinforcing the brand's value of embracing change and pushing boundaries [11] - The Huawei Mate 80 series is set to be launched at a starting price of 4699 yuan, with significant discounts and offers, making high-end technology more accessible to consumers [13]

Core Insights - The essence of Huawei's ULTIMATE DESIGN brand is encapsulated in the philosophy of "extraordinary through repetition," as articulated by brand ambassador Andy Lau, resonating deeply with the public's spirit of finding the extraordinary in the ordinary [1][8][17] Group 1: Brand Philosophy - Huawei's ULTIMATE DESIGN brand emphasizes extreme aesthetics, craftsmanship, and innovation, aiming to honor the era with extraordinary products [1][10] - The concept of "extraordinary" symbolizes a spirit of continuous sacrifice and boundary-breaking, while "master" represents a dedicated pursuit of excellence over decades [10][15] Group 2: Inspirational Stories - Various extraordinary stories from different sectors highlight the theme of perseverance in the ordinary, showcasing individuals who have made significant impacts through their daily commitments [3][5] - Examples include a village doctor who has made over 6,000 house calls and a community guardian who maintains detailed records of residents' needs, illustrating the profound impact of consistent dedication [3][5] Group 3: Product Features - The Huawei Mate 80 RS features innovative technologies such as the 5D Kunlun glass back and advanced color reproduction capabilities, merging technology with art to provide an extraordinary user experience [12][15] - The device supports dual SIM and eSIM functionalities, enhancing global roaming capabilities, and is designed to improve user experience through a highly compatible ecosystem [12][15] Group 4: Market Positioning - The launch of the Huawei Mate 80 RS signifies a leap in the ultra-high-end smartphone market, reflecting Huawei's commitment to high-end technology and user experience [15][17] - The product is positioned as a testament to long-term dedication and innovation, encouraging consumers to pursue excellence in their everyday lives [15][17] Group 5: Sales Promotion - The Mate 80 RS will be available for sale starting November 28, with a starting price of 4,699 yuan, accompanied by promotional offers totaling up to 2,500 yuan [17]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, up 0.07% for the day and 29.34% year-to-date[4] - The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.23%, driven by strong performance in technology stocks, with a year-to-date increase of 25.75%[11] - The S&P 500 remained unchanged, with a year-to-date gain of 15.83%[4] Sector Performance - Toy and leisure products led the gains in Hong Kong, with companies like Brio and Pop Mart rising over 6%[10] - Consumer electronics stocks also performed well, with TCL Electronics increasing by over 6%[10] - New energy vehicle stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Leap Motor and Chery Auto rising over 4%[10] Economic Indicators - China's industrial enterprises reported a total profit of 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%[15] - The automotive industry produced 27.33 million vehicles from January to October, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth[15] - The profit margin in the automotive sector was reported at 4.4%, lower than the average of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises[16] Global Developments - President Putin expressed a willingness to negotiate peace regarding the Ukraine conflict, indicating potential future agreements[15] - The European Central Bank's October meeting revealed a consensus on maintaining the current 2% interest rate, though there were differing opinions on the need for further cuts[15] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that emerging markets will continue to rise, with expected returns of around 8% by mid-2026[15]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, with a slight increase of 0.07% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 29.34% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3,875, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets showed no change, with the Dow Jones at 47,427 and the S&P 500 at 6,813, marking year-to-date increases of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets remained stable, with the DAX and CAC showing minor increases of 0.18% and 0.04% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.59%, with a significant year-to-date rise of 36.57% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index decreased by 0.23%, but still shows a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a minor decline of 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 25.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased by 0.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 5.79% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with industrial profits declining by 5.5% year-on-year in October [3] - The Double Eleven shopping festival reported sales of 1.7 trillion RMB, surpassing last year's 1.44 trillion RMB, although the extended duration affected comparability [3] - The smartphone sales during the festival grew by 3% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 26% market share, while excluding Apple, sales actually declined by 5% [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.33 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Meituan, while Xiaomi and Tencent experienced net sell-offs [3] Economic and Policy Insights - The Chinese government is focusing on regulating price competition and addressing issues of "involution" in various sectors [3] - The State Council highlighted emerging fields such as outer space, the internet, and artificial intelligence as new strategic focuses for development [3] - Recent research indicates that China's open-source AI models accounted for 17% of global downloads, surpassing the US's 15.8% [3] - Alibaba is entering the AI hardware market with its Quark AI glasses, priced starting at 1,899 RMB, integrating deep ecosystem services [3] International Market Reactions - European markets remained flat with low trading volumes, while the German stock exchange reported a significant rise in Allfunds shares following acquisition talks [3] - The UK bond yields slightly increased, and the pound experienced fluctuations against the dollar [3] - The US stock market was closed, with futures showing slight increases, while the dollar index hit a weekly low [3] - Oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical developments, with OPEC+ maintaining its production pause, which supported oil prices [3]

Group 1: Fund and Investment Trends - In November, a total of 9 new dividend-themed funds were established, with a combined issuance scale of 6.615 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year [1] - The number of newly established index-enhanced funds has surged to 160 this year, representing a year-on-year increase of over 416% [1] - Seven new AI-themed ETFs were launched on November 21, with rapid approval and issuance processes, highlighting the growing interest in AI investments [1] Group 2: Banking and Deposit Products - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have recently withdrawn long-term deposit products, focusing on shorter-term offerings [2] - This withdrawal includes significant banks such as ICBC, ABC, and BOC, indicating a shift in the banking landscape [2] Group 3: Technology and AI Developments - Alibaba has launched its first self-developed AI glasses, with multiple tech companies entering the AI glasses market, suggesting rapid industry growth [3] - The world's largest compressed air energy storage project has entered the main equipment installation phase, showcasing advancements in energy technology [3] Group 4: Corporate Financial Performance - Alibaba reported Q3 revenue of 247.8 billion yuan (35 billion USD), a 5% year-on-year increase, but adjusted EBITDA fell by 78% to 9 billion yuan [4] - HP announced plans to lay off 4,000 to 6,000 employees, approximately 10% of its workforce, to streamline operations and enhance productivity through AI [4] Group 5: Market Movements and IPOs - Avita Technology has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, projecting significant revenue growth from 5.645 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.195 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - Soul App has also filed for an IPO, with Tencent as a strategic investor, reporting a compound annual growth rate of over 15% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [5] Group 6: Stock Market and Investment Changes - The National Integrated Circuit Fund reduced its stake in Saiwei Electronics, decreasing its holding from 5.88% to 4.999986% [7] - Tianfu Communication has achieved mass production capabilities for high-speed optical engines, indicating growth in the optical technology sector [7]

Core Insights - The global smartphone shipment is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year in 2025, with Apple projected to reclaim the top position in the market for the first time since 2011, achieving a global shipment share of 19.4% [1][3] - Samsung's shipment is also expected to grow by 4.6%, reaching a global share of 18.7%, but it will lose its long-held top position [1][6] Group 1: Apple - Apple's iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, driven by the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series [3][4] - The iPhone 17 series saw a 12% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 series in the first four weeks post-launch in the U.S., and an 18% increase in China [3][4] - The demand for iPhones is expected to be supported by a significant upgrade cycle, as many consumers who purchased smartphones during the pandemic are now looking to upgrade [4] - Apple is also benefiting from a favorable macro environment, including lower-than-expected global tariffs and easing trade tensions, which enhance demand in key growth markets [4][5] - The company plans to launch the iPhone 17e in the first half of 2026 and its first foldable iPhone by the end of the same year, which is expected to further solidify its market position [5] Group 2: Samsung - Samsung is expected to achieve a 5% growth in shipments in 2025, supported by a resilient supply chain and competitive pricing strategies in emerging markets [6] - Despite this growth, Samsung is unlikely to regain its top position in the global market from 2025 to 2029 due to increasing competition from Chinese smartphone brands in the mid-to-low-end market [6] Group 3: Chinese Smartphone Brands - Chinese smartphone brands are increasingly relying on overseas markets for growth, particularly in regions like India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, as domestic markets become saturated [7] - These brands are shifting towards higher price segments and investing in premium devices and AI features to enhance profitability [7] - However, supply chain uncertainties, particularly shortages in LPDDR4 memory, pose challenges for these brands, leading to a cautious outlook for their growth in 2026 [7]