Alphabet 上周表示，今年计划投入高达 1850 亿美元（现汇率约合 1.28 万亿元人民币）的资本开支，超过过去三年的总和，原因是公司正大力投资对其人工 智能战略至关重要的数据中心。 根据美国银行证券 1 月 9 日发布的一份报告，亚马逊、Alphabet、meta、微软和甲骨文去年发行了高达 1210 亿美元的公司债券，而 2020 年至 2024 年期间 的平均年发行量为 280 亿美元。就在上周，甲骨文又通过一笔债券发行筹资 250 亿美元，订单峰值高达 1290 亿美元，创下纪录。 IT之家 2 月 10 日消息，据彭博社报道，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 计划通过发行美元债券筹集 200 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 1388.69 亿元人民币）资金， 超出此前 150 亿美元的预期规模。 据不愿具名的知情人士透露，本次发行中期限最长的债券 ——2066 年到期的债券，其定价利差已从之前的 1.2 个百分点收窄至较美国国债高出 0.95 个百分 点。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to exempt large tech companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from the next round of chip tariffs to support AI data center construction, linked to TSMC's investment commitments, currently under adjustment and not yet signed by the President [1][2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that significant fluctuations in the dollar would be necessary to impact inflation, noting that the recent weakness of the dollar has no substantial effect on monetary policy, with the dollar index down 7.7% over the past 52 weeks [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the cryptocurrency frenzy associated with Trump's presidency is waning, with Congress making little progress on clarifying cryptocurrency regulations [4][5] Group 2 - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with spot gold fluctuating dramatically, initially breaking above $5070/oz, then falling below $5050/oz, ultimately dropping below $5000/oz, with a daily decline of 1.34%; New York futures gold also fell, dropping below $5020/oz, with a daily drop of 1.28% [6][7][8][9][10] - Spot silver faced similar pressure, falling below $81/oz, with a daily decline of 2.72%; New York futures silver also dropped, falling below $81/oz, with a daily decrease of 1.52% [11][12] Group 3 - Previously, precious metals surged due to geopolitical risks, with New York futures gold breaking above $5110/oz, gaining 2.62% in a day, and spot gold surpassing $5080/oz, increasing by 2.44% [13][14] - In the energy market, Brent crude futures rose over $1/barrel, surpassing $69/barrel, with a daily increase of 1.40%; WTI crude also broke above $64/barrel, with a daily rise of 0.72% following U.S. recommendations for ships to avoid Iranian waters [15][16][17] - The U.S. Maritime Administration issued a notice after the Strait of Hormuz incident, advising U.S. vessels to navigate close to Oman's territorial waters and avoid Iranian waters [18][19] Group 4 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices closed higher, with the Dow up 0.03%, Nasdaq rising 0.90%, and S&P gaining 0.45%; Microsoft increased over 3%, while Nvidia and Meta rose over 2%, and Apple fell over 1% [20] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.17%, with a mention of a company aiming for a rapid increase in stock price, which is considered reasonable in relation to futures gold price fluctuations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakness in the Hang Seng Tech index is attributed to a significant liquidity shock, but the fundamental outlook and bullish logic for Hong Kong tech stocks remain unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The peak of the overseas liquidity shock has passed, and the "buy the dip" strategy is considered effective [1][2]. - The recent liquidity shock from the "Wash Trade" has led to a sharp decline in Hong Kong stocks, but this is expected to gradually subside [2][3]. - Domestic liquidity disturbances caused by public funds over-allocating to Hong Kong stocks are also coming to an end, reducing selling pressure [3]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The relative valuation of Hong Kong tech stocks is at a historical low compared to A-share tech stocks, indicating a potential for a rebound [3][4]. - The current valuation levels are significantly lower than previous lows in March and October 2022, suggesting that Hong Kong tech stocks are undervalued in the context of a favorable regulatory and economic environment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fundamentals - Strict control over IPO quality is expected to improve market sentiment, as excessive IPOs have previously contributed to weak performance in Hong Kong stocks [4]. - The fundamental outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains solid, with earnings expectations stabilizing after recent declines [4][5]. - The tech industry is experiencing positive developments, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba promoting large models, indicating ongoing innovation and growth [4].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.76% to close at 27,027.16 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.34% and 1.52%, respectively [1][2]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the day reached HKD 255.14 billion, an increase from HKD 247.87 billion in the previous trading session, with net southbound capital outflow of HKD 1.88 billion [2]. Individual Stock Performance - Pop Mart saw a notable increase of 5.76%, while Zijin Mining and Ping An of China rose by 5.58% and 4.89%, respectively. Conversely, China Telecom and Kuaishou experienced declines of 2.96% and 2.74% [3]. Key Stock Transactions - Tencent Holdings had a trading volume of HKD 14.68 billion, Alibaba-W reached HKD 9.29 billion, and Kuaishou recorded HKD 5.62 billion in trading volume [4]. Pop Mart's Growth - Pop Mart's founder announced ambitious sales targets for 2025, projecting over 100 million units sold for LABUBU and over 400 million units across all product lines, with operations in over 100 countries and more than 700 global stores [7]. New Listing Performance - Celerate Technology debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a 63.72% increase, opening at HKD 168, which was a 57.1% rise from its issue price. The company anticipates a net profit growth of 52% to 66% by 2025, driven by strong demand in the AI sector [8]. Internet Technology Sector - The internet technology sector rebounded strongly, with Tencent and Alibaba shares rising by 2.28% and 1.87%, respectively. This surge is attributed to major AI initiatives, including Tencent's HKD 1 billion cash giveaway and Alibaba's HKD 3 billion promotional plan [10][13]. Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance sector showed remarkable performance, with China Life and Ping An rising by 3.98% and 4.89%, respectively. Analysts attribute this to declining deposit rates and improving industry fundamentals, with a projected insurance premium income exceeding HKD 6 trillion by 2025 [13].

大型科技企业今年资本支出计划的大幅增长，几乎会耗尽亚马逊、谷歌和 Meta Platforms 的自由现金 流。这将迫使其中一些公司做出艰难抉择，比如是否停止股票回购或增加借款。 好消息是，这些大型科技公司都有能力比当前多借数千亿美元的资金。 近年来，大多数大型科技公司已开始通过派发股息和回购股票的方式向股东返还现金。例如，谷歌和 Meta 平台都采用这两种方式。但今年这种做法可能难以持续， 因为旨在扩大人工智能计算能力的资 本支出几乎完全耗尽了它们运营所产生的现金流。 （见上图） 谷歌和 Meta 已经开始缩减股票回购规模。然而，停止派息可能较为棘手，因为这两家公司均在 2024 年才推出股息支付计划，这使得它们的股票对投资者更具吸引力。 尽管微软可能产生大量自由现金流，却面临着其他公司没有的制约因素 ——即更庞大的股息支付承 诺。上一财年微软支付了 240 亿美元股息，且今年已将股息上调 10% 。 亚马逊不会面临同样的问题，因为它自 2022 年以来就没有回购过股票，也从未支付过股息 。但根据 标普全球市场财智的数据，其今年预计的 2000 亿美元资本支出，将超过分析师估计的 1780 亿美元运 营现金 ...

Group 1 - US stock market surged last Friday, with significant gains in Japanese and Korean markets, leading to a strong opening for Hong Kong stocks [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.59%, the National Index increased by 1.54%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed by 1.9% [1] - Major tech stocks saw collective increases, with Baidu up by 3.5%, Alibaba and JD.com both rising by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - Musk made a notable statement regarding AI deployment costs being lowest in space, resulting in a surge in space photovoltaic stocks, with Junda shares rising over 12% and GCL-Poly Energy increasing by 5.4% [1] - Semiconductor stocks, gold stocks, and insurance stocks also experienced gains [1] - However, traditional Chinese medicine stocks, oil stocks, and airline stocks saw some declines [1] Group 3 - Lanke Technology had a strong debut, opening over 57% higher on its first trading day [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on February 9, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.59% to 26,982.49 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.9% to 5,447.63 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 1.54% to 9,170.57 points. The Red Chip Index rose by 0.89% to 4,399.55 points [1] - Last week, the Hang Seng Index recorded a significant decline of 3.02%, while the National Enterprises Index fell by 3.07%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 6.51% [1] Company Performance and Dynamics - Beijing Capital International Airport Co. (00694.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of 600 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, which represents a year-on-year reduction in losses of approximately 45.3% to 56.8%. This improvement is attributed to the recovery in aviation market demand and enhanced cost control [2] - Times Electric (03898.HK) reported preliminary results indicating total revenue of approximately 28.761 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.46%, with a net profit of about 4.105 billion yuan, up by 10.88% [2] - Power sector stocks saw a general increase, with Datang Environment (01272.HK) expecting a pre-tax profit of 700 million to 710 million yuan for 2025. Datang New Energy (01798.HK) reported a power generation of 3.272 million MWh in January, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, while Longyuan Power (00916.HK) generated 7.1627 million MWh, up by 12.05%, with solar power generation increasing by 42.25% [2] Real Estate Sales - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a contract sales amount of 4.201 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year decrease of 36.4%. Poly Real Estate (01238.HK) had sales of 470 million yuan, down by 31.98%. In contrast, Greenland Hong Kong (00337.HK) saw a significant increase in sales to 508 million yuan, up by 287.79% year-on-year [3] Pharmaceutical and Technology Developments - CloudTop New Medicine (01952) received approval for a new drug application for the treatment of ulcerative colitis. Kelun-Biotech (06990.HK) received approval for the fourth indication of its core product TROP2 ADC. Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) had its HRS-4642 injection included in the breakthrough therapy list [4] - ZTE Corporation (00763.HK) plans to invest 200 million yuan to subscribe to shares of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao fund, focusing on hard technology sectors [4] Stock Buybacks and Financing - Kingsoft (03888.HK) repurchased 1.1142 million shares for approximately 29.9994 million HKD. Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 166.5 million shares for about 27.1612 million HKD. October Rice Field (09676.HK) repurchased 78 million shares for approximately 7.3357 million HKD. China Galaxy (06881.HK) completed the issuance of 6 billion yuan in corporate bonds [5] Institutional Perspectives - According to浦银国际, the market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with a rotation of style. The inflow of incremental funds is slowing before the Spring Festival, and external liquidity is affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Trump’s policies, limiting the expansion space for Hong Kong stock valuations [6] - 广发证券 noted that historical data shows an 82% probability of the Hang Seng Index rising in the three days before the Spring Festival, although there is no significant calendar effect afterward. The current situation differs due to changes in Hong Kong stock pricing logic and increased correlation with A-shares, suggesting a potential passive follow-up increase in Hong Kong stocks [7]

◎刘禹希 记者 严晓菲 一边是港股市场持续调整，另一边是南向资金逆势"扫货"。近日，在港股市场主要股指承压之际，南向 资金连续三个交易日净买入超百亿港元，累计净买入逾500亿港元。业内人士分析认为，南向资金逆势 扫货，主要缘于对港股低估值修复机会的看好，以及对市场中长期走势的积极预期。 南向资金单日净买入超200亿港元的情形并不多见。自2025年2月以来，类似情形仅出现过12次，且往往 对市场形成支撑。例如2025年4月市场回调期间，南向资金3次单日净流入超200亿港元，其中4月9日高 达355.86亿港元，助力恒指企稳回升。 付原认为：短期来看，南向资金的持续流入有助于快速提振市场情绪，缓解离岸市场的流动性压力，被 外部冲击错杀的优质标的有望迎来超跌反弹；中长期则有望增强内地资金在港股的定价能力，缓冲海外 波动对市场的冲击。 多家机构对港股后市持积极看法。华泰证券策略首席何康在研报中表示，近期的市场调整主要源于技术 面与情绪面压力，中期来看中国资产的流动性及基本面向好趋势并未改变，待技术性指标企稳后市场有 望重拾上行趋势。 光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生在近期研报中表示，港股市场在盈利修复、流动性改善、估值低 ...

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 固定收益 – 美债收益率曲线和信用利差 • 固定收益 – 不同评级信用债相对强弱及欧元区利差 • 固定收益 – 美国国债发行量及一二级市场供需 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要国家国债收益率与美债利差走势 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品比价及产业链相对强弱 • 海外权益 – 全球主要指数及美股各行业周度表现 • 海外权益 – ...

在人工智能浪潮的推动下，美国四大科技巨头正开启一场本世纪以来规模空前的资本竞赛。最新预测显示，Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms和微软在二零 二六年的合计资本支出有望达到约六千五百亿美元，较前一年大幅增长约百分之六十。这笔令人瞠目的资金，将如洪流般涌入新建数据中心、AI芯片、网 络设备及备用发电机等一长串硬件设施之中。 紧随其后，Alphabet抛出了高达一千八百五十亿美元的年度资本支出预测，让投资者感到不安。亚马逊的预估则更为惊人，其二零二六年资本支出计划可能 触及两千亿美元大关，消息公布后其市值应声下挫。这一系列数字不仅反映了企业对未来的巨额押注，也凸显出行业ai基础设施竞赛的白热化。 这场由少数 科技巨头主导的投资狂潮，正对更广泛的经济层面产生涟漪效应。规模庞大、耗电极高的数据中心在全美各地加速建设，已在局部地区导致能源供应紧张， 并引发了对电价上升的普遍担忧。同时，由于这些科技企业在整体经济活动中的占比日益增大，其庞大的资本开支可能会扭曲宏观经济数据的解读，成为影 响经济决策的新变量。 据凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司分析师分析，全球数据中心建设浪潮正在这股力量的推动下再次提速。从芯 ...