摩根大通发表研报指，百威亚太公布去年末季收入为10.73亿美元(有机收入按年跌4.2%)，相对市场预期 为10.8亿美元，大摩预期为10.7亿美元；经调整EBITDA为1.67亿美元(有机收入按年跌24.7%)，低于市 场预期的1.83亿美元，亦低于大摩预期的2.02亿美元；经调整净亏损1200万美元。期内，集团在中国市 场销售下跌11.4%，销量下跌3.9%(跌幅收窄，市场份额回稳)，有机平均售价按年下跌7.7%，主因贸易 渠道及居家/新兴渠道投资增加。该行予集团目标价9港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.83 [1] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 5.764 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. The normalized EBITDA was USD 1.588 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year. In Q4 2025, revenue was USD 1.073 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of USD 750 million for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For 2025, Budweiser APAC achieved a total sales volume of 796.58 million hectoliters, down 6.0% year-on-year. The revenue per hectoliter for the year decreased by 0.2% [5] - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 135.18 million hectoliters, with a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.5% [5] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Normalized EBITDA in this region fell by 40.0% year-on-year [6] - The Indian market showed strong growth, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue, contributing more than 20% to revenue growth [6] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue declined by 0.6% year-on-year, with sales volume down 3.7%. Revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.2% [6] China Market Focus - The Chinese market remains under pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak on-the-go channels and delayed shipments related to the Lunar New Year [7] - The company is increasing investments in channel and product mix expansion, focusing on high-end and digital channel strategies for 2026 [8] Profitability Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 to USD 621 million and USD 680 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's competitive advantage in high-end and super high-end segments [8]

Market Overview - On February 12, Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed down, with the Hang Seng Index falling 233 points (0.8%) to close at 27,032 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 91 points (1.6%) to close at 5,408 points, with total market turnover increasing to HKD 238.7 billion[1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.57 billion, down from the previous day's net inflow of HKD 4.82 billion[1] Company Performance - Tencent (700 HK) fell 2.3% to a six-month low, with a year-to-date decline of over 8% due to perceived lag in AI development compared to competitors like ByteDance and Alibaba[1] - SenseTime (20 HK) surged 6.7%, while Zhizhu (2513 HK) rose 28.7% after releasing a new flagship model[1] - Lenovo Group (992 HK) reported a 36% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, yet its stock price fell 4.6%[1] U.S. Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased from 232,000 to 227,000, slightly above expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.862 million, exceeding the expected 1.85 million[2] - The Dow Jones Index fell 669 points (1.3%) to 49,451 points, the Nasdaq dropped 469 points (2.0%) to 22,597 points, and the S&P 500 declined by 108 points to 6,832 points[2] - Gold and silver prices fell by 3% and 8%, respectively, as investors awaited inflation data[2] Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association reported a 13.9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars in January, with new energy vehicle sales down 20.0%[3] - The decline was attributed to market factors and adjustments in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy[3] Industry Trends - In the consumer sector, Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) reported a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4, with an adjusted EBITDA drop of 24.7%, leading to a 5.2% stock price decrease[4] - The healthcare sector saw the Hang Seng Healthcare Index drop 1.4%, with WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) down 0.1% despite strong project acquisition capabilities[4] - The renewable energy and utilities sector experienced gains, with notable increases in stock prices for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) by 12.4% and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) by 13.7%[5]

销量端，中国区4Q25销量同比下滑3.9%，主因公司核心的餐饮、夜场等渠道表现持续疲软。单价端， 4Q25中国区ASP同比-7.7%，主因公司加大对非现饮渠道的投入加之非现饮渠道占比提升对应产品结构 中枢下移。利润端，4Q25公司享受一定的原料成本下降与运营优化红利，但受经营杠杆刚性、总部营 销费用摊派及政府补助减少因素影响，中国区EBITDA同比-42.3%。 其他区域：印度延续增长态势，韩国盈利等待修复 亚太东部：销量端，因韩国消费环境疲软加之同期高基数，4Q25东部销量同比-1.3%。单价端，受益于 4Q25核心品类提价动作及2024年高端部分提价红利延续，东部四季度ASP同比+2.5%，利润端，因总部 费用摊派及韩国区员工薪资调整，使得4Q25东部EBITDA同比-9.8%。此外，公司的印度市场在结构升 级延续下保持高增长态势，对冲部分中国区压力。 中金发布研报称，考虑百威亚太(01876)或适度加大投入，下调26年EBITDA7.1%至15.93亿美元，引入 27年EBITDA16.37亿美元。当前股价对应26/27年6.5/6.2倍EV/EBITDA，因股息率托底，该行维持目标 股价9.80港元/ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2026 EBITDA forecast by 7.1% to $1.593 billion and introduced a 2027 EBITDA forecast of $1.637 billion, maintaining a target price of HKD 9.80 per share, which implies a 25.2% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 2 - For Q4 2025, the company's performance was in line with CICC's expectations, with revenue, sales volume, average selling price (ASP), and EBITDA showing year-on-year declines of -4.2%, -0.7%, -3.5%, and -24.7% respectively, particularly in China where these figures were -11.4%, -3.9%, -7.7%, and -42.3% [2] Group 3 - In the China region, Q4 2025 faced weak demand and deepened channel adjustments, leading to a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sales volume, primarily due to the poor performance in key channels like dining and nightlife, while ASP dropped by 7.7% due to increased investment in off-premise channels [3] Group 4 - Other regions showed mixed results, with India continuing to grow while South Korea's profitability awaited recovery; in the Eastern Asia region, sales volume declined by 1.3% year-on-year due to a weak consumption environment in South Korea, although ASP increased by 2.5% due to price hikes in core categories [4] Group 5 - The company has set a growth-first strategy for 2026, aiming to proactively address market challenges, with the current on-premise channel share at a historical low, suggesting limited downside potential; if the on-premise channel recovers, Budweiser could exhibit stronger-than-industry elasticity [5]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer, with over 100 years of history, is leveraging artificial intelligence technology to enhance its production and distribution processes, creating a more efficient supply chain [1] Group 1: Production Innovations - The brewery has established seven intelligent management systems utilizing IoT, AI, and big data, which differ from traditional brewing methods, allowing for rapid response in production [2] - An intelligent scheduling system automates production planning and interacts with material delivery systems to specify the types, quantities, and timing of required raw materials [2] - The production line can quickly switch between over 500 different product varieties, reducing the time for product changeovers by 70% and shortening order delivery times by 50% [2] - Production efficiency has increased by 60%, and carbon emissions density in the factory has decreased by 40% over three years [2] Group 2: Logistics and Warehousing - The brewery's intelligent vertical warehouse, standing 34 meters tall, utilizes robots and automated systems for efficient inventory management, handling over 200,000 boxes daily [3] - The system allows for automatic binding of products to orders and delivery vehicles, facilitating rapid dispatch to consumers [3]

Core Insights - The company's 4Q25 performance aligns with expectations, showing a decline in revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA, particularly in the Chinese market [1] - The company aims for growth in 2026, adopting a proactive approach to market challenges, with potential for recovery in the on-premise channel [2] Financial Performance - 4Q25 revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA decreased by 4.2%, 0.7%, 3.5%, and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively, with the Chinese market showing declines of 11.4%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 42.3% [1] - The EBITDA forecast for 2026 is adjusted down by 7.1% to $1.593 billion, with a new estimate for 2027 at $1.637 billion [2] Market Trends - In China, weak demand and channel adjustments continue to pressure volume and pricing, with a 3.9% decline in sales volume attributed to poor performance in key channels [1] - The Indian market continues to show strong growth, helping to offset pressures from the Chinese market [1] Strategic Outlook - The company is prioritizing growth in 2026, with expectations for stabilization as the macro environment improves and strategic adjustments are made [2] - The current stock price reflects a valuation of 6.5x and 6.2x EV/EBITDA for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a target price of HKD 9.80 per share indicating a potential upside of 25.2% [2]

本报记者 梁傲男 2月12日，百威亚太控股有限公司（以下简称"百威亚太"）发布2025年财报。财报显示，该公司2025年收入57.64亿美元， 同比减少6.1%；公司股权持有人应占溢利4.89亿美元，同比减少32.6%；总销量796.58万千升，同比下降6.08%。 分地区来看，2025年，百威亚太在亚太地区西部市场销量及收入分别同比下降6.7%及8.2%，每百升收入同比下降1.5%；亚 太地区东部销量同比下降3.7%，收入及每百升收入同比增加1.3%及2.5%。 而2025全年，百威亚太在中国市场的销量及收入分别同比减少8.6%及11.3%，每百升收入同比减少3.0%，财报将此归因 于"增加了对扩大非即饮业务的投资"。 中国酒文化品牌研究院智库专家蔡学飞对《证券日报》记者分析称："按照目前的啤酒趋势与竞争态势，百威亚太正处在 一个'战略换挡'的阵痛期。财报中提到中国区'加大对渠道及产品组合扩张的投资'带来了'额外的获利压力'，说明管理层正在主 动用利润换市场、换未来产品结构。这也反映出，过去驱动百威增长的高端化叙事，正遭遇国产品牌升级的挤压。" 据了解，这是程衍俊自2025年4月份"掌舵"百威亚太以来的首份 ...

经济观察网百威英博发布2025年财报，净利润同比增长16.77%至68.37亿美元，高端化策略与数字化平 台BEES成为主要增长动力。 业绩经营情况 根据百威英博于2026年2月12日发布的2025年全年财报，其核心财务指标与战略进展呈现以下亮点： 2025年净利润为68.37亿美元，同比增长16.77%，增速显著高于2024年。尽管营业收入同比下降0.75%至 593.20亿美元，但有机增长达2.0%，显示其高端化策略对收入的拉动作用。 业务进展情况 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 公司业务状况 B2B平台BEES全年GMV达490亿美元，覆盖28个市场，75%收入通过数字化渠道达成。同时，公司碳中 和进程加速，81.2%运营用电转为可再生电力，碳排放强度较2017年下降29.5%。 行业状况 亚太市场虽受中国收入下滑13.1%拖累，但韩国市占率创十年新高；北美市场通过米凯罗等高端品牌稳 定份额，拉美市场受益于巴西双位数增长。 非啤酒业务销量占比持续扩大，其中无酒精啤酒收入增长超20%，科罗娜零醇等产品在关键市场保持领 先地位。公司通过超高端产品组合(如科罗娜、福佳白)推动均价提升，部分抵消销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is recognized as the most well-known Chinese brand in the international market, focusing on high quality, high price, and high visibility in its branding strategy [1] Group 1: Brand Strategy - The company emphasizes internationalization and interactive brand promotion to enhance its global market presence [1] - Qingdao Beer continues to innovate in distribution channels to expand its overseas market coverage [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Presence - The proportion of overseas export products in total sales remains relatively small for the company [1] - Qingdao Beer has a long-standing presence in the European market, primarily selling products through joint ventures with local distributors [1]