1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire 80% of Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for approximately 516 million yuan, previously held by SK Hong Kong [1][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price is set at around 516 million yuan, with the payment structured in three installments [3][10]. - In addition to the equity acquisition, the company will also acquire relevant intellectual property from the target company, with a transfer price not exceeding 64.7 million yuan [3][10]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Following the acquisition, Ningbo Aisikai will become a subsidiary of the company and will be included in its financial statements, enhancing its industrial layout [5][12]. - The target company possesses significant core technologies in the elastomer field, which will further strengthen the company's position in this sector [5][12]. Group 3: Background Information - The initial investment in Ningbo Aisikai by SK Group was as high as 1.7 billion yuan, and it currently has an annual production capacity of 65,000 tons of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) [7][14]. - The company has a long-standing focus on the research and production of high-performance thermoplastic elastomers, biodegradable materials, and masterbatches, with applications in the automotive and tire industries [7][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for the bulls is the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low exchange inventory is also a factor. The main reasons for the bears are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The short - term demand for rubber is negatively affected by the postponement of EUDR, which leads to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The supply of raw materials is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, about 10 - 110,000 tons of rubber warehouse receipts are expected to be out of storage, significantly reducing the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. December is a season with high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - In mid - December, there was continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand, but the probability of floods was low. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia led to a relatively strong rubber price, but considering the overall decline of commodities, there is a risk of price catch - up decline. [10] - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia mainly affected the northeastern region of Thailand, with a 2024 natural rubber output of about 260,000 - 270,000 tons, accounting for about 5 - 6% of the country's total output. The escalation of the conflict led to the evacuation of border residents and the shutdown of rubber factories, causing a shortage of tapping and production workers, with a certain positive impact on supply. [10] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of full - latex in Hainan, China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of full - latex in Yunnan, China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is reduced. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated. [52] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to decline marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [26][30][33] 3.4. Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to black commodities, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special attention points. The similar movement rhythm of black and rubber products reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand. [41][44][48] 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 64.07% (0.57%), with normal demand for all - steel tires. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is currently booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [61][64] 3.6. Supply End - The rainy season in Thailand is coming to an end. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some believing in small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. [14] - In September 2025, the rubber output was 1.1416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative output was 8.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply, and the import of butadiene is also expected to be high, which will put downward pressure on the price of butadiene rubber. [18]

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the rubber market from December 10 - 16, 2025, covering natural and synthetic rubber [6][7] - The rubber market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation due to a lack of prominent contradictions [7] - Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [7] Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Tire production capacity utilization rate remains stable [11] - The Thailand - Cambodia conflict affects supply expectations and supports raw material prices [11] Bearish Factors - Natural rubber inventory is slowly accumulating and difficult to deplete [11] - High production of cis - butadiene rubber and poor inventory depletion in factories [11] Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - On December 11, the glue price in Thailand was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, and the raw material price in Hainan, China was 13,000 yuan/ton. Prices are weakly stable [12] Natural Rubber Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Dark rubber inventory increased by 2.4% to 730,000 tons, and light rubber inventory increased by 1% to 393,000 tons [15] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Raw Material and Profit - The domestic butadiene market price fluctuated within a range this week. As of December 11, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,450 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in the East China region was 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 728.1429 yuan/ton [16] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises in China was 28,383 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons. Factory inventory increased by 600 tons to 26,500 tons, and trader inventory increased by 220 tons to 5,450 tons [19] Tire Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a 0.55% increase month - on - month and a 6.07% increase year - on - year. The average inventory available days were 40.58 days, a 1.07 - day increase month - on - month and a 1.38 - day decrease year - on - year [20] Rubber Contract Spread - As of December 11, the spread of the "RU - NR" near - month contract converged slightly, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract remained stable [22] Market Outlook - The fundamentals of natural rubber show weak and stable raw material prices, with supply pressure from the peak - season in Southeast Asia and limited downstream demand, leading to slow inventory accumulation [26] - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene is stable, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, but downstream demand is limited [26] - Overall, the rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is expected to oscillate [26]

Group 1 - The company announced the acquisition of 80% equity in Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for 516 million yuan, which will become a subsidiary and included in the consolidated financial statements [1][2] - The acquisition aims to ensure stable and sustainable operations post-transaction, with related patents, proprietary technologies, and trademarks being transferred to the company [1] - The assessed value of the intellectual property to be transferred is 64.7 million yuan, with the transfer price not exceeding this amount [1] Group 2 - Ningbo Aisikai is a production facility for ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM) rubber, which is a copolymer of ethylene, propylene, and a small amount of non-conjugated diene [2] - The acquisition will enhance the company's industrial layout in the elastomer sector and expand application scenarios, positively impacting future development [2]

Group 1 - The company has acquired 80% equity of Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for a total of 515.9664 million RMB, making it a subsidiary included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1] - The acquisition agreement includes a provision for the transfer of relevant patents, proprietary technologies, and trademarks from SK Hong Kong's affiliates to ensure stable and sustainable operations post-acquisition [1] - The assessed value of the intellectual property to be transferred is 64.7 million RMB, with the transfer price not exceeding this amount [1] Group 2 - Ningbo Aisikai is a production facility for ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM) rubber, which is a copolymer of ethylene, propylene, and a small amount of non-conjugated diene [2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's industrial layout in the elastomer sector and expand application scenarios, positively impacting future development [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is neutral. It is suggested that investors adopt a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [3]. Core Viewpoints - The current spread between synthetic and natural rubber has reached a historical low. The space for further decline in the single - sided price of synthetic rubber and the spread between different rubber types is limited. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of December 4, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained sufficient [4]. 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Butadiene - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,200 tons (- 0.80%), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%. Many butadiene production devices were shut down or under maintenance, leading to a decline in production [3]. 2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons (4.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%. Some cis - butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and it is expected that this week's production and capacity utilization rate will slightly decline, but the supply on the spot side will remain sufficient [3]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Semi - steel Tires - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading was weak during the month - end period. The four - season tire market was weakly stable, and the snow - tire market had sufficient supply but awaited further demand improvement [3]. 3.2 All - steel Tires - In the all - steel tire market, the trading was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus was on digesting existing inventories, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The total domestic butadiene inventory declined from a high level, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.41% [3]. 4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of - 0.34%. The downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3]. 5. Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Price - The ex - factory prices of BR9000 of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber also showed different trends [4][8][9]. 5.2 Spread - The RU - BR spread was 4,655 yuan/ton (- 6.81%); the NR - BR spread was 1,635 yuan/ton (- 12.10%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.00% [3]. 6. Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [3]. 7. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The US core PCE in September dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low and lower than market expectations. G7 and the EU considered banning Russian oil shipping services. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December increased significantly [3]. 8. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 8, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Core Data Summary BR Futures - On December 5th, the closing price of the BR12 contract was 10,410, down 45 from the previous trading day and up 100 week - on - week [4] - The open interest was 30,197, down 1,872 from the previous day and down 18,607 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 65,443, down 26,058 from the previous day and down 58,373 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 13,320, down 100 from the previous day and down 2,520 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 11.34, down 1 from the previous day and down 4 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread - The basis of BR was 40 on December 5th, up 45 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week [4] - The difference between BR12 and BR01 was - 32, up 40 from the previous day and up 60 week - on - week [4] - The difference between BR01 and BR02 was - 25, down 30 from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week [4] - The difference between RU and BR was 4,655, up 70 from the previous day and down 285 week - on - week [4] - The difference between NR and BR was 1,635, up 120 from the previous day and down 225 week - on - week [4] Spot Prices - The Shandong market price of BR was 10,450 on December 5th, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,575, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week [4] Profits - The spot processing profit of BR was 906, unchanged from the previous day and up 101 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 442, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1,401, unchanged from the previous day and down 220 week - on - week [4] Other Products - For other products, the report also provides data on prices, basis, spreads, and profits, including styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, SBS, etc [4]

期待需求的利多 橡胶月报 2025/12/05 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 期待需求（政策）利多期间胶价的表现 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 11月28日新闻，EUDR正式推迟。判断为需求利空。 ◆ 泰国橡胶出口10月同比增加明显，（雨季一般出口持平或者小增），超出市场的预期。判断为供应利空。 ◆ 20251205市场有降息降准的预期，利多需求预期。 ◆ 12月中旬泰国主产区有连续比较大的降雨。 ◆ 择机波段短多机会。 ◆ 12月仍然处于冬储等需求偏多的季节，没到供需边际走差的季节。 前期行情影响因素： 确认EUDR推迟1年，需求利空 ◆ 2025年9月23日消息，EUDR生效时间再度推迟。 ◆ 据艾科森环境技术消息，欧盟委员会希望再次推迟欧盟的反森林砍伐法， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 5, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - No explicit core view is presented in the provided text; it mainly offers data on synthetic rubber market indicators. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on December 4 was 10,455, with a daily change of -120 and a weekly change of 40 [4]. - Open interest on December 4 was 32,069, down 6,917 daily and 19,952 weekly [4]. - Volume data is not provided. - Warehouse receipt quantity on December 4 was 13,420, a daily decrease of 2,030 and a weekly decrease of 2,120 [4]. - The virtual - real ratio on December 4 was 11.95, down 1 daily and 5 weekly [4]. - The basis and spread data show various changes, e.g., the butadiene - BR basis had a daily change of 70 and a weekly change of -40 [4]. Spot - Shandong market price on December 4 was 10,450, down 50 daily and unchanged weekly [4]. - Chuanhua market price on December 4 was 10,400, unchanged daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Qilu ex - factory price on December 4 was 10,600, unchanged daily and up 200 weekly [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,300 on December 4, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,575, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly [4]. Profit - Spot processing profit on December 4 was 906, up 180 daily and 26 weekly [4]. - Import profit on December 4 was -430, down 50 daily and up 217 weekly [4]. - Export profit on December 4 was 1,390, up 43 daily and down 194 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot - Shandong market price on December 4 was 7,200, down 225 daily and 25 weekly [4]. - Jiangsu market price on December 4 was 7,050, down 200 daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Yangzi ex - factory price on December 4 was 7,100, unchanged daily and weekly [4]. - CFR China was 850 on December 4, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly [4]. Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data is mostly N/A. - Carbon four extraction profit data is incomplete. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on December 4 was -1,764, down 200 daily and up 50 weekly [4]. - Import profit on December 4 was 115, down 200 daily and down 179 weekly [4]. - Export profit on December 4 was -986, up 174 daily and down 52 weekly [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - Styrene - butadiene production profit on December 4 was 1,538, unchanged daily and up 175 weekly [4]. - ABS production profit data is mostly N/A. - SBS production profit on December 4 was -335, unchanged daily and down 30 weekly [4].