Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [3] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volumes, and profit margins for various synthetic rubber products and related raw materials from October 1 to October 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures and Related Indicators - On October 30, the BR主力合约 (12) price was 10,800, with a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 320. The持仓量 was 47,385, down 4,831 daily and 19,309 weekly. The成交量 was 125,337, a daily decrease of 70,313 but a weekly increase of 24,677. The仓単数量 remained at 8,580, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 340. The虚实比 was 27.61, down 3 daily and 10 weekly [4]. - The顺丁基差 was 0, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 20. The丁苯县差 was 450, up 45 daily and 20 weekly. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, with no daily or weekly change, while the 01 - 02 spread was -25, down 5 daily and 30 weekly. The RU - BR spread was 4,600, a daily decrease of 230 and a weekly increase of 382, and the NR - BR spread was 1,725, down 200 daily and up 340 weekly [4]. Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Chuanhua were both 10,800 and 10,700 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 300 and 250. The Qilu factory price was 11,000, unchanged daily and down 200 weekly. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 1,700 [4]. - The现货加工利润 was 848, up 51 daily and 506 weekly. The进口利润 was -1,336, up 1 daily and down 58 weekly. The出口利润 was 2,025, down 1 daily and up 222 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 7,600 and 7,575 respectively, with daily decreases of 50 and 25 and weekly decreases of 790 and 775. The Yangzi factory price was 7,900, unchanged daily and down 500 weekly. CFR China was 930, down 10 daily and 40 weekly [4]. - The碳四抽提利润 decreased from 1,787 to 911 over the period. The丁烯氧化脱氢利润 was -864 on October 30, up 70 daily and down 610 weekly. The进口利润 was -35, up 56 daily and down 428 weekly, and the出口利润 was -494, down 85 daily and 59 weekly [4]. Downstream Product Profits - The丁苯生产利润 was 1,213, unchanged daily and up 225 weekly. The ABS生产利润 was 89, up 23 daily and 168 weekly. The SBS生产利润 was 485, unchanged daily and up 410 weekly [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a "weak reality, weak expectation" trend due to multiple factors, with prices under pressure from weak cost factors and increasing supply pressure, while demand struggles to absorb the excess supply [1][5]. Supply Side - By 2025, domestic butadiene production capacity is expected to increase by 980,000 tons, reaching a total capacity of 7.677 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which exacerbates the oversupply pressure in the industry [3]. - Despite some companies reducing output or undergoing maintenance due to long-term losses, the overall market supply has not effectively contracted due to new production facilities coming online [3]. - As of mid-October, social inventory of polybutadiene rubber has risen to 32,800 tons, continuing to grow month-on-month, while factory inventories remain at historically high levels [3]. Demand Side - The recovery in the tire industry, the main downstream application for synthetic rubber, has not met expectations, with production capacity utilization rates showing a year-on-year decline despite a month-on-month increase [4]. - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The inventory turnover days for domestic tire companies are increasing, indicating poor terminal sales and significant destocking pressure, with procurement strategies focusing on just-in-time purchasing [4]. External Environment - Increasing uncertainty in the external environment is further suppressing the release of export orders, contributing to the overall challenges faced by the domestic synthetic rubber market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term raw material end is under continuous bearish expectations, there will still be an obvious price difference between private resources and Sinopec & PetroChina resources, downstream buyers may still wait for price drops, production enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline, and trading enterprise inventory may slightly increase [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are mostly stable, with concentrated snow tire orders and many specifications, so production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. All - steel tire enterprises' shipments are stable, and most enterprises' production schedules will likely remain stable, with overall capacity utilization rate expected to fluctuate slightly [2] - The 512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,500 - 11,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the position of the main contract is 47,385 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,831 [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 3,010 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 [2] - Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 750 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is 571.13 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 930 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 [2] - WTI crude oil is 60.48 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.33; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.53 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 65.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 24,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 204 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 156; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.32 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 750; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 4,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 340 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.95; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219 [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.34 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39; the weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.26 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2] - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output is 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October is 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber have slightly declined [2] - As of October 30, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory is 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.90% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on October 29 was 10,795, down 10 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on October 29 was 52,216, up 3,562 from the previous day and down 17,656 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on October 29 was 195,650, up 83,214 from the previous day and 96,252 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 29 was 8,580, unchanged from the previous day and down 340 from the previous week [4] - Long - short ratio on October 29 was 30.43, up 2 from the previous day and down 9 from the previous week [4] Basis/Spread - BR basis on October 29 was 5, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on October 29 was 405, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01 spread on October 29 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02 spread on October 29 was - 20, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR spread on October 29 was 4,830, up 275 from the previous day and 705 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR spread on October 29 was 1,925, up 200 from the previous day and 615 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 10,800, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4] - Chuanhua market price on October 29 was 10,700, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 29 was 11,000, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,450, down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on October 29 was 797, up 156 from the previous day and 516 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 1,337, up 51 from the previous day and down 59 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was 2,026, up 130 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 7,650, down 300 from the previous day and 800 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 29 was 7,600, down 300 from the previous day and 850 from the previous week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 29 was 7,900, down 300 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on October 29 was 940, down 10 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit data for October 29 is not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 29 was - 934, down 300 from the previous day and 780 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 91, down 219 from the previous day and 543 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was - 444, up 190 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Other Production Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 29 was 1,213, up 250 from the previous day and 375 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit on October 29 was 66, up 36 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week [4] - SBS production profit data for October 29 is incomplete [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The accelerated decline in recent market conditions has made downstream buyers more cautious, and the limited volume of transactions at low - price points has limited support for the overall market. Due to the decline in downstream futures and a bearish outlook for the later market, buying intentions are low [2]. - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, with market offers falling further. Traders' offer sentiment is poor, and there is still pressure on transaction follow - up. Terminal buyers are cautious, and the focus of actual transactions is at the lower end of the range [3]. - In the short term, the weak operation of butadiene has driven down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. Butadiene rubber is gradually entering a pattern of high production, high inventory, and high profit, and is expected to have a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games in the short term, with the medium - term price center gradually moving downward [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (December contract) decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 10,805 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 19,544 lots to 112,436 lots, open interest decreased by 967 lots to 48,651 lots, and turnover decreased by 117,842 ten - thousand yuan to 611,228 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 140 to 195, and the monthly spread (BR11 - BR12, private enterprise) remained unchanged at 60. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton each. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 69.0377%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to 10,946 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 97 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, with prices in Shandong's Luzhong area around 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton and in East China's ex - tank self - pick - up around 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton [2]. - Taking the Daqing BR9000 in Shandong as a benchmark, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber closed at 10,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, exceeding the morning's expectations. The market offer has declined further, and the reference price of private butadiene rubber in the northern region is 10,600 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core View No core view information is provided in the content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: On October 27, the BR12 main - contract price was 10,995, down 125 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The open interest was 49,618, a decrease of 17,076 from the previous day and 23,190 from the previous week. The trading volume was 131,980, an increase of 31,320 from the previous day and 8,289 from the previous week. The warehouse receipt quantity was 8,920, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 27.81, down 10 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was 75, up 75 from the previous day and down 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 455, up 25 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was - 10, down 15 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,385, up 170 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,545, up 160 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,950, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 512, up 169 from the previous day and 384 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1,326, down 48 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,845, up 42 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 8,175, down 215 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 8,100, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 960, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit data is incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 504, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The import profit was 224, down 249 from the previous day and 104 from the previous week. The export profit data is incomplete. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 988, unchanged from the previous day and up 125 from the previous week. The ABS production profit data is incomplete. The SBS production profit was 315, up 30 from the previous day and down 160 from the previous week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight de - stocking. The arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected, but the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows. The demand side is relatively stable, with the production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises expected to remain high, and the production of all - steel tire enterprises expected to be stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is not given a specific short - term forecast range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143704 lots, down 1486 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 51038 lots, down 8525 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25314 lots, down 525 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10527 lots, down 57 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 123310 tons, down 710 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43849 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 630 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13228 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 688 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.89 Thai baht/kg, up 1.02 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.4 Thai baht/kg, up 1.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.09%, down 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.08%, down 0.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an enhanced impact on rubber tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the inventory in general trade was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 27, 2025 [3] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Market - BR主力合约(12) price on October 24: 11120, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Open interest on October 24: 66694, a daily decrease of 3178 and a weekly decrease of 8134 [4] - Trading volume on October 24: 100660, a daily increase of 1262 and a weekly decrease of 1290 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 24: 8920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Long - short ratio on October 24: 37.38, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] - Basis of cis - butadiene on October 24: - 20, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 230 [4] - Basis of styrene - butadiene on October 24: 430, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 180 [4] - Spread between 12 - 01 contracts on October 24: 25, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - Spread between 01 - 02 contracts on October 24: 5, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] - Spread between RU - BR on October 24: 4215, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly increase of 245 [4] - Spread between NR - BR on October 24: 1385, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 45 [4] Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 11100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Transfar market price on October 24: 10950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 24: 11200, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 24: 1475, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 24: 1700, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - Spot processing profit on October 24: 342, a daily increase of 61 and a weekly increase of 290 [4] - Import profit on October 24: - 1278, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 47 [4] - Export profit on October 24: 1803, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 41 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 8390, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 235 [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 24: 8350, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 24: 8400, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - CFR China price on October 24: 960, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 24: - 254, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Import profit on October 24: 473, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 250 [4] - Export profit on October 24: - 968, a daily decrease of 91 and a weekly decrease of 473 [4] Group 4: Other Product Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 24: 988, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 238 [4] - ABS production profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit on October 24: 585, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are under pressure, with supply growth outpacing demand. However, the overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low, and there are many important macro - events recently, so the price is supported by macro - sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 11,120 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 99,398 lots (up 19,944 lots), the open interest was 69,872 lots (down 2,100 lots), and the trading volume was 5.52049 billion yuan (up 1.14297 billion yuan) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 20 yuan (down 70 yuan from the previous day), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 60 yuan (down 10 yuan) [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.304% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Industry News - As of October 22, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. Ship arrivals were limited, downstream raw material inventories were normally consumed, and the short - term tradable volume was limited, leading to the decline in port inventory. Merchants expect sufficient imports in October [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The spot market was driven by the expectation of reduced trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. The mainstream supply price rebounded, and low - price transactions improved. However, there were more overhauls of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in an increase in the overall inventory of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [2][3]